So, what are the bond kids thinking??? A .25 rate cut this coming week and then FINI for a length of time due to inflation. Perhaps there is concern with required skillsets for proper restructuring of multiple departments within the U.S. government by questionable managers, that will be forthcoming in a few weeks and retaliation for proposed tariffs. The Ontario, Canada Premiere has issued a 'Ya wanna play to DJT & Co.'. Perhaps there is overall concern with what comes after January 20, 2025.
NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
W/E December 13 , 2024. Bond NAV's PINCH your nose, avoid the SMELL
--- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD THE BIG HEAD SLAP for this week's pricing. The majority of bond sectors were down all day, each day of the week. All durations pricing were down every day of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was NASTY AND DOWN. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 9 - December 13, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.44% yield (Unchanged for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a .00% basis change in yield for the week. MM's yields were unchanged, for the week.................
--- AGG = -1.42% / +2.04% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.07% / +5.68% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.17% / +3.70 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.84% / +2.09% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -1.66% / +.36% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.96% / +2.67% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.12% / +4.89% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.25% / +4.53% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -3.25% / -2.12% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -4.49% / -5.46% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -6.41% / -9.45% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -7.33% / -12.09% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +9.59% / +20.30% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -12.62% / -29.52% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -1.31% / +2.68% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- USFR = +.10% / +5.19% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
--- LQD = -1.79% / +2.26% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- MBB = -1.54% / +1.89% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
--- BKLN = +.14% / +8.10% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.61% / +8.44 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -1.23%/+4.96% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -1.20% /+1.68% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -1.47%/+7.15% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -.95% / +14.05% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -1.35% / +8.92% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.44% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

12/13/2024. Dani Burger is in.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-13/bloomberg-real-yield-12-13-2024-video
The Market is virtually certain of a .25% rate cut this month from The Fed.
Rick Rieder: back end of the curve is not worth it. Expect volatility.
Do we get a cut, and, as has been the case, do yields keep going HIGHER? The front end should stay put, or "pegged." The long end will be range-bound in the 1st quarter of '25, perhaps up to 4.5%.
"Fiscal adventurism" coming next year. Watch for the prospect of pressure on the labor force if deportations get going. The WORD will be uncertainty.... What about overseas developed bonds? Europe, especially: fiscal expansionism won't be "the story." Austerity to any degree is the opposite of what we should expect HERE. Currency hedge with Gilts and in Japan are relatively attractive.
Past week was 2nd-busiest of the year with credit issuance. TD (fresh off a not very old news story about it being lax to prevent money laundering---) was one of the "leaders." Tighter spreads will continue and be even more pronounced. Triple-Cs GAINED for a 4th week. Credit spreads are at a 3-year low.

The Week in Charts (12/13/24)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:40 Topics
01:41 Inflation Is Warming
05:44 Free Wealth Path Analysis
07:48 Easing Into a Mania
19:27 Is Free Money the Cure For High Prices?
27:20 Nasdaq 20,000
29:19 Apple's Highest Valuation Ever
38:42 America's Exceptional Valuation
47:32 Rising Real Wages and Spike in Small Business Optimism
Video
Blog

@MikeM: On a hunch, just the other day, I did the same with VEEV, which I had been watching. Damned if it didn't shoot up at the opening the next day. I put in a sell order, Schwab improved it by $2, and I had a $500 profit. I used it all to make donations to local public radio, MFO, and a couple of other causes. Believe me, it is truly rare for me to succeed in that way.

msf, here is the key statement from my Original Thread Post regarding CDs that are maturing:
"I am wrestling with renewing at the 4.3% rate, with almost no stress, or jumping back into the more active investing options. Anyone else in a similar situation?
If you are a CD investor, with current CDs that are maturing, I would be interested in your response regarding your personal investing decision, about reinvesting the maturity back into CDs, or shifting to a different kind of investment.

In one sense I'm not in a similar situation. I've been taking advantage of the inverted yield curve we've had for a few years and so I do not have bonds or CDs maturing soon. OTOH, I'm in a similar situation because I have this short term cash that has been giving me better returns but is no longer doing so.
The return to a non-inverted yield curve was due to short term rates dropping faster than long term rates, not because long term rates rose. See M* graph here of curves for 2020 (ZIRP), Sept 2023 (highest, inverted), June 2024 (similar shape with a bit lower yield), and Sept 2024 (flat-ish, 2/3% lower, greater drop at short end)
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/255673/how-to-position-your-bond-portfolio-as-short-term-yields-fall.aspx
That piece was written three months ago and M* was suggesting finally going longer (i.e. intermediate as opposed to short). I stayed short - too much uncertainty and now with "promised" tariffs, migrant expulsions (affecting labor costs), etc., rising inflation (and rising interest rates) seem far from improbable. Just the other day I heard that it will be hard to bring down food prices. Quelle surprise.
That Sept. M* piece was written almost exactly at a minimum in 10 year Treasury rates: 3.63% on Sept 16th, currently 4.32%. A purchase of a multi-year CD or Treasury bond in Sept would have locked in a lower rate than one should be able to get now.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024
Cash (1-2 month maturity) is still looking good and I see no reason to gamble before Feb 2025 on the direction of rate movements.
I've given my thoughts before on places to keep cash short term. If you can get into a low cost Treasury MMF (Treas only for high income tax states), they are yielding near or more than prime MMFs (and more after-tax). Those are typically $1M min: SUTXX (4.43% SEC yield, 4.53% APY), FSIXX (4.44% SEC yield, 4.54% APY) w/$1 min at Merrill Edge. Going out a bit longer is RPHIX. Slightly longer still are AAA CLOs like PAAA (pure AAA) and JAAA (smidgen of AAs, longer history).
JAAA acquitted itself respectfully in 2022, dropping 2.33% from Jan 1 before recovering. In comparison, floating rate ETFs like FLRN and FLOT dropped 1.34% and 1.65% respectively. They all were positive for the year, while MINT bottomed out at -2.16% from Jan 1 and lost a percent on the year.

Soon maybe the Bored Ape NFT's will be back. Sold for millions now worth 50-70k if you can even figure it out. A 90% decline since mid 2022 from what I can find. OUCH!! I'll waste spend my money on cars, women and beer.

I accidentally snorted out whisky at reading half of these ... I was only trying to find the quote that no one has yet devised, concocted, imagined, or plausibly advocated a use case
https://www.cryptoaltruism.org/blog/15-quotes-about-the-potential-of-blockchain-and-crypto
efficiency! math!
andreesen sounds like he is talking about full-faith / -credit currency

Unbelievable set of quotes (are they real?) Well, all I can say is:
Song: Happy Days Are Here Again
Lyrics: Jack Yellen(1) (4) (5)
Music: Milton Ager(2) (4) (5)
Year: 1929(3) (5)
Genre: Popular
Country: USA
Happy days are here again!
The skies above are clear again,
Let us sing a song of cheer again,
Happy days are here again!
Altogether shout it now,
There's no one who can doubt it now,
Let us tell the world about it now,
Happy days are here again!
Your cares and troubles are gone
There'll be no more from now on!
This song was originally posted on protestsonglyrics.net
Happy days are here again!
The skies above are clear again
Let us sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again!
So long sad times, go long bad times,
We are rid of you at last;
Howdy gay times, cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past.
Happy days are here again!
The skies above are clear again
Let us sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again!
This song was originally posted on protestsonglyrics.net
Your cares and troubles are gone
There'll be no more from now on!
Happy days are here again!
The skies above are clear again
Let us sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again!
Happy Days are Here Again Lyrics

I’ll go out on a limb and predict HSGFX (even with its new name) will continue its 15-year track record of losing money for investors.

On that note, how does one get away with being a permabear in a market that traditionally advances the vast majority of the time?! I'm not sure whether his existence is a greater testimony to his own ineptitude, or to the folly of the people who place their faith in him?! It seems akin to putting your money in a bottle and burying it in the backyard!

It’s amazing that someone of his intelligence could do so poorly over 15 years. I’m a bit of a bear myself. But there are alternatives to going “all-in” on equities. Think long / short funds, hedged equities, high yield & floating rate bonds, convertibles, multi-asset funds. Cash earned little over that period, but with compounding you’d still be quite a bit ahead of HSGFX. I’d think short-term bonds should generate positive returns (in excess of cash) with very minimal downside risk going forward now that rates have risen from abysmal lows.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict HSGFX (even with its new name) will continue its 15-year track record of losing money for investors.

On that note, how does one get away with being a permabear in a market that traditionally advances the vast majority of the time?! I'm not sure whether his existence is a greater testimony to his own ineptitude, or to the folly of the people who place their faith in him?! It seems akin to putting your money in a bottle and burying it in the backyard!

I’ll go out on a limb and predict HSGFX (even with its new name) will continue its 15-year track record of losing money for investors.

Tariffs would be the wild card for 2025. Major market headwind, if approved.

From Crash, re: 2025: Market returns will be sub-par, or at the low end of average. Bonds might be just as attractive as equities. The economy is balancing on a colossal mountain of gummint debt. Tax breaks, or extended tax breaks for those who need it least, will only add to the perversion.

Japan Govt debt may be 150% of GDP but what counts is how much of it is owned by the Japanese, especially its own central bank.
I thought the following was interesting:
“OTHER VOICES. Jenny JOHNSON, President & CEO of Franklin Templeton. AI hype will come to an end and a period of pessimism will follow. Such up and down cycles are normal for new technologies. Early and fast adopters may not be the eventual leaders. The profitless AI capex has to be digested. Look for AI beneficiaries in enterprise software, data analytics, customer service, finance, healthcare, collaborative work, picks and shovels (chipmakers, cloud hosts, data centers).”
How did Franklin growth or value funds perform during 2023 and 2024, the current AI boom period. Just checking if her comments were colored by the performance of her funds.
I used to think business leaders are intellectually honest (I know I was naive). The latest one that killed my optimism about that breed is Howard Lutnick. He had his strategists parade for two years telling us how the economy is going to be bad and that the stock market was about to crash / correct. It turned out he was a Trump bum licker and massively politically biased. I feel sorry for all the opportunity cost he caused for investors who listened to him and his minions who of course will benefit either way.

If you ever felt Howard Lutnick’s qualifications were deficient to become Commerce Sec, you were missing this piece of info -
https://www.ft.com/content/73ef7b34-3969-4466-993e-0d1d24ef434a

I just got done grading my 25 graduate capstone papers, coincidentally .... ergo, scotch awaits!
(And good call on infrastructure investing; it's been a large part of my portfolio for years.)

Noticed the huge drop?
To the extent that M* can be trusted about this:
WBALX paid for Dec., yesterday: $0.6875 cents/share.
PRFDX pays today: $2.5597 per share.

Per WSJ...
"The Trump transition team has started to explore pathways to dramatically shrink, consolidate or even eliminate the top bank watchdogs in Washington.
In recent interviews with potential nominees to lead bank regulatory agencies, Trump advisers and officials from his newfound Department of Government Efficiency have, for example, asked whether the president-elect could abolish the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., people familiar with the matter said.
Advisers have asked the nominees under consideration for the FDIC, as well as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, if deposit insurance could then be absorbed into the Treasury Department, some of the people said."

Gift link from the WSJ, free for all:
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/trump-advisers-bank-regulations-fdic-efa761dc?st=5QeEfJ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
... if, if, IF this ever happens, I'd expect the next financial crisis will make 1929 look like a quaint fun-filled tea party....

I accidentally snorted out whisky at reading half of these ... I was only trying to find the quote that no one has yet devised, concocted, imagined, or plausibly advocated a use case
https://www.cryptoaltruism.org/blog/15-quotes-about-the-potential-of-blockchain-and-crypto
efficiency! math!
andreesen sounds like he is talking about full-faith / -credit currency

I’ve been forgetting who I am ever since I turned 75. Maybe I’ll take a look.
Thanks for the heads-up Yogi. I don’t post or read financial discussion boards anywhere else. Something similar happened at Amazon years ago where real names became attached to the product reviews. By going into profile settings it was possible to re-set things and revert back to the user names.

Bump up.
Any takers here for KSS, currently priced at $14 and yielding 14% dividend?

90% payout ratio and unsteady track of divs in recent years .... not for me.

Deep value investor is a different breed, most of us here do not belong to. With those metrics it could be attractive if it had a Moat but in the space it is in and high interest rates, it is probably sleep walking into a graveyard.
If you guys remember, a couple of years ago, there was a take private offer at $55 a KSS share and the Board thumbed its nose at the bidder. There are a lot of Boards in the US that belong in North Korea.

I don't recall that, just offering a quick-take on the question. (I don't play in the retail space beyond consumer staples, sorry)