A 25 bps rate cut in December FED meeting is expected. Commentary from Nuveen.

Key risk:
1. Inflation fails to continue moderating as expected, weighing on asset prices.
2. Policymakers unsuccessfully juggle fighting inflation with supporting economies still struggling to gain traction.
3. Geopolitical flare-ups intensify around the world.

https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/investment-outlook/fixed-income-weekly-commentary?utm_source=sfmc&utm_term=&utm_content=317245&utm_id=487c7a11-9b5f-451e-b69e-c0b2b8c0805f&sfmc_id=221196836&sfmc_activityid=08eab76d-23d9-4047-8842-9a48e8115e98&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=us_nwre_subs_gnrl_emal_1224_02_na_na_weeklyinsights1209&sfmc_journey_id=487c7a11-9b5f-451e-b69e-c0b2b8c0805f&sfmc_journey_name=eWkeylnIishgst2_201402_9onSncFnoattcs&sfmc_activity_id=08eab76d-23d9-4047-8842-9a48e8115e98&sfmc_activity_name=sun_rw_eussbg_rn_lmela1_22_420n__aanw_eelkiysngith1s029&sfmc_asset_id=317245&sfmc_channel=email

Fundstrat's Tom Lee calling for 6600 S&P 500 by year end 2025 but it won't be a straight line up.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fundstrats-tom-lee-is-no-longer-one-of-wall-streets-biggest-bulls-why-hes-cautious-on-2025-8248c01f

When asked about the markets in 2025, online Magic 8 Ball came up with "Outlook good".
You can now buy with confidence.

The one I got from my broker said "Outlook Hazy: Please Shake Again" and charged me a commission....

When asked about the markets in 2025, online Magic 8 Ball came up with "Outlook good".
You can now buy with confidence.

Easy Sneezy / +10% on the S&P in 2025 according to Goldman Sachs (Not my favorite outfit)
Party on ..
Does make you wonder why anybody would invest in cash at 5%?

Sold JAAA from the IRA. After about a month of ownership I got tired of looking at names like Uncle Billy's Triple A Tranche and Aunt Martha's Well-Endowed CLO's.
I have taken the proceeds, along with some cash, and added to CBLDX and started a position in CBRDX. That will get me closer to 50% bonds. At the present time I am not buying bonds that ended 2022 in the red.
Equities are about 43%. I'm in no hurry to get to 50%.
Nothing shaking in the taxable but the leaves on trees.

The last Walgreen (Charles III) involved in the senior management of the Chicago-area fallen icon Walgreens/WBA was in 2010. The apostrophe in Walgreen's has come & gone.
The Executive Chairman Stefano Pessina (Italy) owns 10% of WBA. He was previously the Chairman of Alliance Boots that became part of WBA (ticker changed from WAG). His wife Ornella Barra (Italy), owns 0.20%. She is the International COO of WBA. Definition of a high power couple fits them.
John Lederer of Sycamore Partners serves in the WBA Board (2015- ). He is the former Chairman and CEO of Duane Reade that Walgreens bought.
If this deal with Sycamore goes through, look at all the familiar faces that Walgreens will see there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sycamore_Partners
WBA spiked on this news, but it's far-far from its all-time high of 67 in 2015.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WBA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07109450370
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/WBA/walgreens/stock-price-history

NIMBY please. Y'all do your fluctuating in your own spaces.
Staying with the topic:
Jefferies says the Russell 2000 will reach 2,715 by 2025 year-end SA article

Figured I'd start a thread for folks to post any prominent (or useful, or entertaining) EOY prognostications for 2025....
UBS (PDF is at the bottom of the page)
https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/roaring-20s-the-next-stage.html
Schwab
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-stock-market-outlook
JPM
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/jpmorgan-outlook/predictions-and-forecasts
Take with a grain of salt as part of your own DD. However, I'll add one prediction that you DEFINITELY can take to the bank:
"Markets will fluctuate."
:)

@yogibearbull Good for you; and we're so very pleased that you arrived HERE.
TM for me, I do believe; has made a difference. Although, I can't compare to another me, as I've meditated for 50 years. And no, for those who do not meditate; I've not had some grand cosmic experience.........but a few small interesting experiences that would not have happened otherwise. Of this, I am certain. The affects on the human body are more readily measured today. This physical benefit is over and above what one may expect from a 'cosmic journey' on the side of a mental experience .

If you are able to, please elaborate the two sentences I bolded. Thanks

These 'private equity things' are always a wonderful solution for the general public, eh? NOT !!!
But, nothing one can do about these transactions.
Article

Both M* Legacy Portfolio and M* Portfolio support Watchlists (basically, dummy portfolios with 1 share each).
M* Legacy Portfolio may be slow in updating prices. It seems that @catch22 pulls his data on Saturday, so that may be OK.
Of course, that assumes that @catch22 is a subscriber.
M* Performance, Day-end is truly rolling data updated to the day (with 5-day wk, 30-day mo, 90-day qtr).
Month-end would change only after the end of the calendar month, Quarter-end only after the end of calendar quarter. So, it may be considered semi-rolling.

@yogibearbull Good for you; and we're so very pleased that you arrived HERE.
TM for me, I do believe; has made a difference. Although, I can't compare to another me, as I've meditated for 50 years. And no, for those who do not meditate; I've not had some grand cosmic experience.........but a few small interesting experiences that would not have happened otherwise. Of this, I am certain. The affects on the human body are more readily measured today. This physical benefit is over and above what one may expect from a 'cosmic journey' on the side of a mental experience .

No need AI to take over. We already know thru history that the SP500 index simplicity beats most funds over the decades and why VG is so big.
High tech is coming after other job for decades and AI will take over additional white collar jobs.
The gap will continue to grow no matter what any government may do.

5.1, 6.1. Open DAF or contribute to it.
It has been a good year with great gains in some speculative highflyers. Think of donating in-kind to your DAF (new or existing). Be sure to bunch things so that you can itemize (Schedule A). Be aware of income related limits.
You can then take advantage of DAF tax deduction by selling other appreciated stocks or funds to approximately match the realized capital gains with the DAF contributions. Then, the overall tax effect will be nil.

And now, syria. everything's happening.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/syria-war-rebels-assad-israel-intl-hnk-12-10-24#cm4i2spov001o356omqaz3aio
israel says it is destroying chemical weapons, and has also moved into a buffer zone. an obvious land-grab, there. now, i read of explosions in damascus in the dark, late at night. worrisome. will the russians refuse to leave their coastal base on the Med? us-backed kurds are considered by neighboring turkey to be terrorists. syria used to be part of the old french mandate, along with lebanon. what might they offer to do? but france is a mess, currently. good news is the former p.m. is cooperating with the victors.

but in the spirit of this convo, i am grappling with a nice problem to have. there will be significant travel expenses in 2025 for us. the good news is that we can afford it by saving plus taking, rather than reinvesting dividends. but oh, how i hate to part with money...

Yikes. UVXY's been really Ultra the last 4 years: -88%, -45%, -88%, -54% ytd.

I hasten to add that I don’t think the excesses in the markets are limited to just the one fund I sold. I tried to select for off-loading something I own that I felt was most likely to underperform if the markets fall across the board, There were a couple others I might have selected. Just trimming risk. Probably way early.
As I noted, most of the proceeds from the sale are simply being put to work (spread out) across the remaining 5 funds plus a slight bump-up in cash from 7.5% to around 12%. A normal cash weighting for me is around 10% - but not uncommon to jigger it up or down a bit depending on many factors.

If your total withholding and estimates are at least 100% (or 110%) of last year's taxes, including January's estimates, then you're set. Otherwise you need to pay in at least 90% of what you'll owe this year in order to avoid penalties.
(The higher percentage is if you had higher income last year.)
Normally the IRS wants you to pay that 90% in even amounts. But if you have a lot of income in the 4th quarter because of a conversion (or any other reason), you're allowed to make a larger estimate in January without getting dinged for uneven tax payments.
To do that you can file a Form 2210 Schedule AI (annualized income)
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f2210.pdf
I did that in a few years. It's not extremely hard but it is very tedious.
Again - if you're shooting for 100% (or 110%) of last year's taxes, it doesn't matter what you make this year. If you're shooting for 90% of current taxes, then you need to make sure with a Jan 15th estimate that you hit that 90% figure of your ultimate taxes including the conversion amount.