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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    There was an argument in M* that moat is better than quality. And indeed, MOAT beats FUQIX, QUAL since its inception, though FUQIX is better during last 5 years, and especially during the last year: MOAT does not contain any of Mag 7 companies.
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    "After all these years of doing this" (thanks Jimmy Buffett, RIP) easily the best (looking and potential upside) portfolio we've ever had.
    SAFE component of FZDXX/VMRXX and 5-yr CD ladder with 5+% APY.
    80/20 stock/bond portion of about a baker's dozen OEFs (70% Active/30% Passive) and (recently added) GOOGL UP in aggregate ~3% YTD, lead by FSELX (Atta boy, NVDA!), FDSVX and PRWAX. PRWCX currently underperforming (partner in crime) FBALX but Giroux will do that on brief, interim bases.
    Bottom Line? As Jimmy B once said,
    "Well, I'm still here. Didn't have to go to rehab, and I'm not broke."
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    Could biotech be like international, emerging markets, or small caps, where active management and/or single stock picks may work better than a shotgun approach or buying a wide swath (with most funds weighing them by market cap, so performance would be heavily skewed towards matching AMGNs, BIIBs, etc., similarly to how the S&P is heavily skewed to the top 10 market weight stocks)?
    Also, there’s a difference between finding the next $5 to $100 pre-approval biotech stock, and investing in those that have established products and a good pipeline (AMGN, VRTX, ARGX, AXSM are some that I hold/have held).
    FBIOX had a great performance track record until probably the pandemic….it had access to some privately held companies due to its size. The TRP healthcare fund was always heavily in biotech in the 2000’s-2010’s.
    Maybe biotech is similar to “disruptor tech.” The science and ideas behind them are cool, but more money is lost looking for the next big things than for waiting for the science/medicine/tech to become established and for companies to starting earning revenues (or better yet, profits) from them. I got burned by the disruptor/innovation ideas by buying in mid-to-late 2021, after so many stocks (and ARK funds) skyrocketed, only to crash and burn in ‘22 (appropriately so, in most cases).
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    I have had NVDA since 8/22. Sold 1/3 of it in 4/23 since it was over my 3% max for individual stock. We are over that limit again. What to do? YTD +2.5%.
    Old proverb - “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” Really depends on your age and risk tolerance.
    I’m experimenting with balancing out my single stock holding with a short-term bond ETF to control volatility. Both are at 5% of portfolio. If the stock rises sharply $$ is moved into the bond fund to balance things out. If the stock falls sharply $$ moves the other way and back into the stock. Went to this approach around the end of ‘23. Seems to work as planned. Couple mornings ago the stock fell 10% right out of the gate and I was able to move some money into it.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @stillers
    GSIHX (stillers corrected for quoted poster) is 17% US and 6% Novo Nordsik and 5% NVDA 2% META and 2% TSCM
    May explain a lot of recent out performance
    May, yeah.
    10%-20% Domestic is however not uncommon in FLG funds. See SSIFX, a worthy competitor in the category with ~16% (and 9% Novo). Meanwhile, BUFIX currently has 8% Domestic.
    But you'd have to look back at its holdings and its competitors for the past 3+ years as it has outperformed its peers regularly, starting in 2021:
    Year_Rank in Category
    2021 30
    2022 2
    2023 7
    2024 2
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    I have had NVDA since 8/22. Sold 1/3 of it in 4/23 since it was over my 3% max for individual stock. We are over that limit again. What to do? YTD +2.5%.
    Keep it (let your winners run) IMHO... I've been reading lately AI is still in it's infancy and NVDA could continue to skyrocket BUT don't blame me if it doesn't. ;^) I don't like stop loss limit orders but if it gets WAY above your sell price set a stop loss limit order at your sell price.
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    In your initial example, the person hypothetically tipping an outsider "of course ... could not share the news ... until it was publicly available." Regarding the tippee, "Unless [the tippee] knew someone and got inside information, it would have been hard to take advantage of it before the news hit."
    With that fact pattern, the tippee here would have known that the information conveyed was inside information (the exact words in the hypothesis). But even if not, they should have figured that out.
    In your later example, urologists are gleaning low grade information about the progress of a clinical trial from examining their patients. I agree that the connection of that information to the sponsor may be tenuous. Though there is the argument that the information is still confidential due to the doctor/patient relationship. See:
    Insider Trading in the Clinical Trial Setting (2022 preprint)
    2023 version:
    I disagree with the inference that the low quality of the data (small sample size, unknown whether placebo was used, unknown side effects) rendered the information immaterial. By assumption, "a lot of urologists and their friends and family" traded on this information. From a securities perspective, that would make the information material.
    Finally, it's hard to disagree with the fact that most people trading on such information wouldn't be charged, let alone convicted. That still doesn't make it legal or proper.
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    Total nut is grown 0.3%.
    FMSDX up a half percent, while all else --- BSV, CCOR (what a goddamn dog), BND, VGIT, STIP --- is barely flat or down over a percent, ffs.
    JQUA, which I do not have nearly enough of, up 4.7%.
    SP500 up 4%, of course.
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    Among my funds only:
    PRWCX leads.
    BRUFX fell to the bottom of the pile in '23, but is positive now, in early '24, by just a fraction.
    But junk bond fund TUHYX is doing even better than BRUFX.
    Of course, just after I got into FALN, it fell.
    Fund Managers have got my money positioned this way, in aggregate now:
    Cash 7
    US stocks 48
    Foreign stocks 5
    Bonds 37
    "other" 3
    (Strange: The FALN divs. are noted at the 1st of the month as per Morglestar, but brokerage TRP shows that they will be credited on the 7th of the month. Games....)
    Looks like the particular problem I noted with performance numbers appearing "stuck" at a specific number for some select stocks I own has been remedied, over at Moozlestar.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @stillers
    GSHIX is 17% US and 6% Novo Nordsik and 5% NVDA 2% META and 2% TSCM
    May explain a lot of recent out performance
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    I have had NVDA since 8/22. Sold 1/3 of it in 4/23 since it was over my 3% max for individual stock. We are over that limit again. What to do? YTD +2.5%.
  • MS-Mike Wilson
    Mike Wilson has had opportunities in fall 2023 to adjust his views as more data became available. He struck to the inverted yield curve narrative too long. One would think there are ample resources at MS that he can lean on in order to see other more balanced views over a longer time horizon.
    Recent interview with David Giruox mentioned that TRP evaluate stocks on a 5-years investment horizon, not short term. Their longer view pans out nicely in a number of TRP funds.
  • Down Market Strategies
    Certainly looks like Leuthold is preparing for a “down market”. Just looked this morning and LCORX is sitting at 13% equity exposure according to M*. That’s based on around 17% long and 4% short equity positioning. According to M* 74% of the fund’s portfolio is invested in ”fixed-income” with the remainder in cash. Its newer ETF sibling (LCR) is positioned somewhat more aggressively with 56% net long equity.
    The firm has received a lot of attention in recent months, including some kind words from the Professor in last November’s Commentary. They’re apparently betting against what seems like an increasingly euphoric mainstream media and retail investment crowd.
    Edit - The M* figures are not accurate. See comments from Mike & Catch below.
  • T. Rowe Price - Arrrgh!
    For completeness ...
    The cash transfer completed yesterday. The first check was issued on Jan 4. The stop payment was issued on Jan 24. The money was credited back to the brokerage on Jan 25. The brokerage took seven calendar days (5 business days) after that to reissue the check on Feb 1.
    Then, miraculously, that paper check made it through the mail and was received and processed by T. Rowe Price all within one day. On Feb 2, the cash received was used to invest in a T. Rowe Price fund.
    Cost of delay (market rise)? $100+ That's not going to break the bank but it's more than a few bucks.
    It makes one wonder about what one is told. It took a week, not a couple of days, to reissue the check. It took one day, not 10-12 business days for the money to arrive after that. Did the cash really go by paper check?
    . Current ETA is another three weeks - a couple of days to stop payment, get the money back in the account, reissue check. After that, another 10-12 business days according to TRP. The outside brokerage said they could not send the money by ACH or wire or ACAT because all they could do was resend the check as originally requested.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    RE: MRFOX. Great looking fund but, as noted, with no or limited TF access from major brokerages.
    https://marshfieldfunds.com/fund-facts/
    MFROX incepted 12/28/15.
    Growth of $10K per M* since the MRFOX inception date:
    MRFOX: +$25,219.77
    FDSVX: +$25,219.57 (No, NOT a typo and/or you are NOT seeing double!)
    FSELX: +64.645.82
    We admittedly had no idea about the existence of MRFOX, but have owned the other two listed funds in the domestic, Large Cap arena since MRFOX's inception date, so not feeling too bad about sleeping on MRFOX.
    FDSVX is compared as it is also a LCG fund.
    FSELX is compared as it is, like MRFOX (16-24 holdings), also a concentrated fund (albeit a Semis sector fund) of 35 holdings.
  • The week that was, global etf's, various categories + heat map. Week ending May 17, 2024.
    The graphic is set for the 5 days ending February 2, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
    ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire.
    *** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
    --- EWW = +2.33% / +.13% (I Shares, Mexico)
    MMKT note: Fidelity mmkt's yields remained steady this week, with core acct's yields at 4.98% (SPAXX) and 5.00% (FDRXX).
    NOTE: Growth area remains nominally positive, although tech. related funds found some weakness this week. Most U.S. bonds had a very positive week, in spite of a large sell down on Friday.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I like to compare funds against ticker NICHX (due to returns, Sortino ratio and low market correlation). MRFOX stands out on various risk and return metrics, the other two Jain funds not so much.
    I am impressed by MRFOX policy around only eating your own cooking. Intend to dive deep into this and perhaps open a starter position.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&sl=5iNnJGMdPHyVBS03m1WrtK
  • rare long-form interview with primecap (about once every 5 years)
    @rforno. As good an explanation of active management as I have found. Do you have an explanation of technical analysis?
    "We really think that this squiggle matches what that squiggle did over there last [time period] which suggests this next squiggle coming up will act in [declared way]. And if not we'll wait until it can be compared to the previous squiggle over here but this time will be different because it's viewed at a 45-degree angle whilst humming the 'Whipsaw Song' and doing the Macarena in front of a TV playing CNBC in-between shots of gin."
    Speaking as someone who's dabbled in the dark arts of TA, it's AKA: a state of voodoo brought about by hopium ingestion.. ;)
  • Neuberger Berman AMT Funds liquidates two funds
    "Portfolio" as opposed to "fund" in a name is often a signal that the vehicle is designed for annuities. Nevertheless, aside from their names, they are still referred to as "funds", as in "AMT Funds".
    From the SAI: "Shares of the Funds are sold to insurance company separate accounts, so that the Funds may serve as investment options under variable life insurance policies and variable annuity contracts issued by insurance companies (each, a “variable contract”). Shares of the Funds are also offered to certain qualified pension and other retirement plans (each, a “qualified plan”)."
    https://www.sec.gov/ixviewer/ix.html?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/736913/000120677423000503/nb4183681_485bpos.htm
    Here's the International Equity Portfolio fact sheet (Dec 2023), w/$34.8M AUM.
    https://www.nb.com/handlers/documents.ashx?item_id=80aa402f-390a-4524-a1bf-e08863ea55ad&usg=AOvVaw2t510MsI7uum0NaGaTeGZq&opi=89978449
    And a M* summary page from last June for the PutWrite Strategy Portfolio w/$39.69M AUM
    https://www.pacificlife.com/public/portfolios_and_managers/portfolio_updates/msfs_neuberger_berman_absolute_return_multimanager.pdf
    I'm sure one could find more recent data, but with both funds under $40M, does it really matter?
  • Neuberger Berman AMT Funds liquidates two funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/736913/000089843224000091/form497.htm
    497 1 form497.htm FORM 497
    Neuberger Berman Advisers Management Trust® (“AMT Funds”)
    International Equity Portfolio
    U.S. Equity Index PutWrite Strategy Portfolio
    Supplement to the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2023, as amended and supplemented
    As previously announced, on December 14, 2023, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Neuberger Berman AMT Funds (the “Trust”) approved the liquidation of each of International Equity Portfolio and U.S. Equity Index PutWrite Strategy Portfolio (the “Funds”), each a series of the Trust. Given each Fund is not currently at sufficient scale, the Board determined it was in the best interest of shareholders to close each Fund. Accordingly, the Funds will cease their investment operations, liquidate their assets and make liquidating distributions, if applicable, to shareholders of record.
    The date of liquidation for the Funds is currently anticipated to occur on April 26, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shareholders of the Funds may continue to redeem their Fund shares through the Liquidation Date. As of the close of business on March 15, 2024, the Funds will not accept orders to purchase Fund shares from new investors or existing shareholders (including purchases through dividend reinvestments). In connection with the liquidations, from the date of this supplement until the Liquidation Date, each Fund may depart from its stated goals, strategies and techniques as the Fund begins to convert all portfolio securities to cash or cash equivalents in preparation for the final distribution to shareholders. This may impact each Fund’s performance and shareholders may bear increased brokerage and other transaction expenses relating to the sale of portfolio securities prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Shareholders who elect to redeem their Fund shares prior to the completion of a liquidation will be redeemed in the ordinary course at a Fund’s net asset value per share. Owners of the variable annuity or insurance contracts offered by the insurance companies whose separate accounts are invested in each Fund should consult with their insurance company for information regarding the possibility of transferring their investment to other investment options prior to the Liquidation Date and the redirection of their assets that will occur on or about the Liquidation Date.
    Because shares of each Fund are available as underlying investment options for variable contracts issued by insurance companies, it is anticipated that each contract owner will receive additional information from their insurance company or other financial intermediary about what options the contract owner has for its assets held in each Fund. Contract owners should refer to any documents provided by their insurance company or other financial intermediary concerning the effect of the liquidation of a Fund and any steps they may need to take as a result thereof. In addition, contract owners should understand that their insurance company may have a specific cut-off date for new investments and should contact their insurance company or other financial intermediary for more information.
    Because shares of each Fund are only eligible to be held by insurance company separate accounts funding variable contracts and other qualified investors, the liquidations are not expected to be considered taxable events to contract owners. Contract owners should consult their personal tax advisor concerning their particular tax circumstances.
    The date of this supplement is February 2, 2024
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    Neuberger Berman Investment Advisers LLC
    1290 Avenue of the Americas
    New York, NY 10104
    Shareholder Services
    800.877.9700
    Institutional Services
    800.366.6264
    www.nb.com