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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    options/warrants typically have exercise prices ABOVE the current prices
    Typically, one expects a stock's price to increase.
    Historical prices for DJTWW (warrants).
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJTWW/history
    The prices seem to be moving in the "wrong" direction. It may not be long before the market considers the warrants to be worth less than $11.50. That is, the market may soon conclude that buying and exercising a warrant will get you a share of DJT worth less than $11.50 under the terms of the warrant.
    (I haven't read the doc closely for terms and conditions.)
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    And the hits just keep on a coming. Article
    You've got to get the money from somewhere.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    DJT secondary filed for 146,108,680 shares of common stock and 4,061,251 Warrants (exercisable at $11.50; STRANGE, as options/warrants typically have exercise prices ABOVE the current prices).
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124019745/ny20026576x1_s1.htm
    That smells fishy to me ... I don't remember seeing this happen before, and you're right in how you described it. Frankly, it makes me think of the 'options backdating' scandal from 10-15 years ago, except this time it's games being played with strike prices, not issuance dates.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    DJT secondary filed for 146,108,680 shares of common stock and 4,061,251 Warrants (exercisable at $11.50; STRANGE, as options/warrants typically have exercise prices ABOVE the current prices).
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124019745/ny20026576x1_s1.htm
  • Jamie Dimon (JPM) Looking for Future Rate Storms
    It's about oil that had runup already to WTI $85 and Brent $90. But it didn't move much after that. Similar for gold. Only cryptos showed real-time moves (at one point, Bitcoin -8%, digital-gold +32%) when none of the markets were trading, but those have calmed down too.
    But we haven't seen the end of the story yet.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    What's a "TV Guide?"
    To clarify for those who aren't old, a TV Guide is a weekly magazine that kept you up to speed on the latest details for complex sitcoms such as "Three's Company" and "Mork & Mindy". TV Guides may still be available at your local supermarket, but nobody actually purchases them.... they will typically be covered with dust, read only by the poor souls stuck waiting in line while the store clerk figures some old lady's 60 cent coupon issue.
    DJT "bounced" back to $32.59 after touching $29.57 intraday on Friday. Next stop....$25. Woot-woot!
  • CNN, 5pm Saturday update, Drones were launched from within Iran towards Israel
    @yogibearbull
    Yes. We'll surely be taking a peek at futures after 8pm EST tonight and the Asia markets.
    FINVIZ offers a quick and dirty look for some items. As with viewing now (10am), and then peeking again this evening
    .”
    Right on @Catch22
    The cross-currents on the investment front are profound. Guess Jamie Dimon has it about right when he sees rates somewhere between 2% and 8% at year-end. (Yogi’s earlier thread)
    A few personal observations:
    - Several “white-knuckle” foreign issues ongoing …
    - Frayed domestic politics - seemingly heading for some sort of cataclysm in November …
    - Some U.S. equity markets (especially tech) sizzling hot (up 30% + in a year) …
    - Consumer staples & value stocks in a prolonged slump …
    - Commodities and and gold surging …
    - Inflation running hotter than the Fed or anyone else wants …
    - A Fed Chair who appears very much disposed to lower rates while dissent among some of voting members appears to be surfacing …
    - Longest running inverted yield curve in memory (or ever?) …
    - 7+% mortgages on new homes while those with older 3% mortgages are reluctant to sell …
    All this … and as Yogi Berra might say - “You can make 5% without even trying!
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    I can still recall the Columbia record deal insert from the weekly TV Guide. It was something like "$.01 for 10 records". You later had to buy 1 additional album per month for life at approx. $14 each - that was a lot back then.
    What's a "TV Guide" :-)
    My impression of the Columbia records is that they were specially pressed and lower grade (cheap vinyl, compressed dynamics and/or poor remastering). Way too long ago to remember details, but Columbia House (marketing?) and Columbia Special Products (records) ring some bells.
    The way to go was with high quality, solid performance Musical Heritage Society recordings. Promo was something like: buy three albums and we'll throw in Pachelbel's Canon for free. No further obligation (except for the monthly mailings: if you don't decline, we'll mail you this month's album and bill you).
    https://groups.google.com/g/rec.music.classical.recordings/c/2sXkzBsA75k/m/Yrtd7baWOdUJ

  • CNN, 5pm Saturday update, Drones were launched from within Iran towards Israel
    There is not much that trades over the weekend. VIX was to be trading 24/7 somewhere in the world, but it isn't there. Even gold trading takes a short break over the weekend.
    But, cryptos trade all the time. So, looking at it over the last 12 hours,
    Bitcoin initially fell 8%, but now down only 4.5%,
    Digital-gold (Pax Gold) spiked to $3,098, but then has stabilized around $2,450.
    The US futures markets and the Asian markets will open on Sunday evening. The European markets open on Sunday night.
    The US market open on Monday should be interesting.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    @Old_Joe Who you call'in 'old'? :) We're well seasoned older humans with brain cells full of experiences and knowledge.
    I kinda liked the bread toasters and other items offered by banks to open an account. I still recall promotion tables being set up in the customer service area with 'gift' choices in place. :)

    Never had bank gifts, but I do remember S&P Green Stamps....

    Wow.... memories.... S&P Green Stamps... I don't remember them that well but I do remember them. I was in elementary school at the time. I just googled them to jog my memory, they were actually S&H Green Stamps. For some reason it reminded me of when I ordered my Beatles wig from Cousin Brucie (NY radio dj) -- I never got it!
    S & H Green Stamps. I knew that's what you meant. :)
  • TRP
    Interesting. Since 3/28 peak....57% Eq PRWCX -1.68%...38% Eq PRCFX -1.63%....Index 61% Eq VBINX -2.31%.
  • The week that was, global etf's, various categories + heat map. Week ending May 17, 2024.
    The graphic is set for the 5 days ending April 12, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
    ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire. ***
    *** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
    --- EWW = -4.12% / -.63% (I Shares, Mexico)
    MMKT note: Fidelity mmkt's yields remain unchanged this week, with core acct's yields at 4.95% (SPAXX) and 4.98% (FDRXX).
    NOTE: The broad U.S. equity and bond sectors finished the week with losses in all sectors. Not a pretty week for the hold tight portfolio. Exceptions were found in the commodities sectors with many positive areas.
    NEW: 1 week 'heat map' by sectors. This is an interactive graphic. You may hover the computer pointer over the various blocks to view portions of sectors and/or stocks within those sectors. NOTE: to the left of the graphic, one may change the 1 week performance drop down menu to another time frame. Another example: at the left edge of the graphic, select exchange traded funds and then 1 week or a time period of your choice.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • QDSNX - A Fund for Retirees?
    Another fund to put on your radar is ARCIX— the AQR Risk balanced commodities strategy fund. Up 1.24% today and 10% over the last month. It was also up 21% in 2022 and 17% annual returns over the past 5 years. Looks to be a good inflation hedge.
  • Jamie Dimon (JPM) Looking for Future Rate Storms
    @hank, that is stale quote for PRWCX from yesterday. Many sites are still showing stale info from 4/11/24 (Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, etc). Probably will fix in the next update of the evening.
    But Price website, M*, etc are showing the correct info for 4/12/24 and it is -0.79%.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prwcx/quote
    Thanks a lot @yogibearbull. Nice to know DG’s human. TCAF, which I also follow, was off quite a bit when I looked earlier, so couldn’t figure out why PRWCX would be up.
    BTW - From M*’s current assessment of PRWCX: ”A 5-star manager that hasn’t begun to peak ...”
  • QDSNX - A Fund for Retirees?
    Only for sake of comparison, PRCFX was (0.50%) on the day.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Purchased 5-yr TIPS for both our IRAs.
  • DCM/INNOVA High Equity Income Innovation Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1295908/000158064224002124/dcm-innova_497.htm
    497 1 dcm-innova_497.htm 497
    DCM/INNOVA HIGH EQUITY INCOME INNOVATION FUND
    A Series of Centaur Mutual Funds Trust
    Supplement dated April 11, 2024, to the Summary Prospectus, Statutory Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information, each dated February 28, 2024
    Effective immediately, the DCM/INNOVA High Equity Income Innovation Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Centaur Mutual Funds Trust (the “Trust”), has terminated the public offering of its shares and will discontinue its operations effective May 24, 2024. Shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase and, at the close of business on May 24, 2024, all outstanding shares of the Fund will be redeemed at net asset value (the “Transaction”).
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”), at the recommendation of the Fund’s investment advisor, DCM Advisors, LLC (the “Adviser”), determined and approved by Written Consent of the Board on April 10, 2024 (the “Written Consent”), to discontinue the Fund’s operations based on, among other factors, the Advisor’s belief that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to discontinue the Fund’s operations. Through the date of the Transaction, the Advisor will continue to waive investment advisory fees and reimburse expenses of the Fund, if necessary, in order to maintain the Fund at its current expense limit, as specified in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Through the Written Consent, the Board directed that: (i) all of the Fund’s portfolio securities be liquidated in an orderly manner not later than May 24, 2024; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on May 24, 2024, be closed and the proceeds of each account be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder, including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing accounts. As a result of the Transaction, the Fund’s portfolio holdings will be reduced to cash or cash equivalent securities. Accordingly, going forward, shareholders should not expect the Fund to achieve its stated investment objectives. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
    Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their shares on each business day prior to the Transaction. Procedures for redeeming your account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “Redeeming Your Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to May 24, 2024, will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record. If your Fund shares were purchased through a broker-dealer or other financial intermediary and are held in a brokerage or other investment account, redemption proceeds may be forwarded by the Fund directly to the broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for deposit into your brokerage or other investment account.
    The Transaction will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    Shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders generally have 60 days from the date that proceeds are received to re-invest or “rollover” the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise the proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
    If you have any questions regarding the Fund, please call 1-888-484-5766.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/10/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/10/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (43.4%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (24.0%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.5%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +19.4% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (111+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (26+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar up. CPI is rising. Higher rates for longer, maybe 0-2 cuts in 2024. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1432/thread
  • FORTX
    Per the Abraham Fortress website: FORTX
    Equity
    40-60%
    exposure in equities comprised of stocks of issuers of any market capitalization in the United States, and/or outside of the United States, and derivative instruments such as futures, options or swaps on equity securities or equity indices.
    Fixed Income
    10-30% in fixed income securities (generally with greater than 5 years of remaining maturity) issued by the US government, other sovereign bonds, and any investment grade bonds.
    Diversifying Strategies
    10-30% in a diversified portfolio of trading strategies/programs managed by one or more trading advisors including the Advisor (the "Diversifying Strategies") through investments in securities or derivatives (such as futures, swaps, or options) either directly or indirectly through the fund or its subsidiary. The fund through its subsidiary will also generally have a 0-15% long gold exposure through commodity linked derivatives and/or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
    FORTX seems to be a more conservative version of PRPFX, with lower returns and lower SD in it's ~ 6 year lifespan. REMIX has been a champ, besting both of them. Supposed benchmark is 50%-70% allocation funds, but FORTX can use derivatives and gold.
    Really low Total Assets of $66M despite the 5 star rating (M*). 75 bps fees per year.