@Tarwheel concisely and accurately stated "Nobody knows where longer term rates are headed, despite all of the punditry." I would add that it's also regularly called a fool's game.
True story: Years ago and for a coupla years, I was diligently (some say "anally") projecting my defined benefit pension plan lump sum payment (one of three defined benefit pension plans in our household) that was largely driven by a coupla factors including the 10-yr rate. During one of those years, one of the most reliable investment houses projected a 3.
5% change in the 10-yr in the coming 12 months. And voila! Amazingly they nailed the % move EXACTLY! Well, except for the all important direction of the move, which they said was going to be DOWN, but instead went (Oopsy!) UP.
The strategy for owning a CP CD ladder as one's fixed income sleeve has been posted about ad nauseum on this forum. I know that's true because I am one of its leading proponents and made a ton of posts about it. Any otherwise reasonably intelligent investor on this forum who still doesn't
get it needs to go back and re-read some of the many other threads on the topic over the past year or so. It's pretty simple.
Basically, what are you
hoping for (and I ask that pointedly as IMO,
hope is what you're dealing with here) out of your dedicated bond funds over the next
5-yr period. 4%?
5%? 6%? And if your hopes are in that range, why did you NOT (when the option was available - it ain't now) instead take the stress, guessing and
hoping out of the equation and guarantee a
5+% APY from an FDIC'd, CP CD
5-yr ladder?
BTW, the venerable Art Cashin used to routinely remind us, "I learned long ago that
hope is not a viable, long-term investment strategy."
Disclaimer_1: We own a
5-yr CP CD ladder paying
5+% APY as our fixed income sleeve and it now serves as self-insurance for our projected LTC needs. The current
5-yr CP CD rate is still over our % hurdle and we continue to replace rungs as they fall off. This strategy has given us WAY more time to spend on our stock sleeve (IMO, where
real money is made) and the extra time and effort afforded us by the ladder has resulted in blowout TRs over the past 1-to-1 1/2 years as we've accurately identified some of the best places to be in that market (that is, US, AI, LCG and Semis).
Disclaimer_2: I'm tired of posting the same thing over-and-over again and I trust some forum participants are tired of reading it as well. So this will be my last time. For those who still don't
get it, maybe try reading it
s-l-o-w-l-y one last time?