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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • welcome to the discussion a/k/a help board for MFO's premium tools
    A very old thread!
    But I will ask a question here.
    Ulcer Index (UI by Martin) is prominently featured and often discussed at MFO; there was even a feature on it in the monthly MFO by @David_Snowball in May 2023. The typical definition of UI is over 14 days [e.g. StockCharts UI(14), Yahoo Finance Ulcer(14)]. Although MFO Definitions don't indicate the time period, I assume that it's also 14 days. So, it just indicates the most recent drawdown behavior and shouldn't really be compared with other longer period parameters SD, Sharpe Ratio, etc (typically over 3, 5, 10, 15 years).
    There is a related UPI that is a variation of Sharpe Ratio but its definitions vary - from just 14-days to averaging UI over longer periods.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/22/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/22/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (47.0%, high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.3%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (26.6%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +20.7% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (117+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (32+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals down), bonds down, oil down, gold flat, dollar up. FOMC Minutes indicated higher rates for longer. Pending crypto FIT21 will make the CFTC the lead agency, not the SEC; Gensler is in near-panic. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1484/thread
  • foreign revenue, median EV
    Price!
    M* wanted twice as much, despite our non-profit status.
    But Lipper now Refinitiv now LSEG has raised the price of LGDF (Lipper Global Data Feed) by about 3-5% every year since circa 2018.
    If it continues, we will need to seek an alternative.
    c
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
    When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
    Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance". His second best idea is using the SP500.
    But, as you know, it does not always work, during 2000-10 the SP500 lost money for 10 years...and this is when you should when to hold them and when to fold them (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo)
    Mr C. is not alone, in 2008-9 Arnott with PAUIX looked like a hero and was interviewed everywhere claiming he got the secret formula for VALUATION. I bought PAUIX + the Intrepid fund managed by C.
    I sold both within months because valuation isn't an accurate indicator, never was, never will be...and markets can be irrational for a lot longer than you think. A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
    Many great experts made the same mistake, read (https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/13/wall-shame-worse-experts-predictions).
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Palm Valley lists the following:
    Inception 4/30/2019
    INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE (%) as of March 31, 2024
    ___________________ Quarter YTD 1 Year 3 Year Inception
    Palm Valley Capital Fund 1.04% 1.04% 7.38% 4.55% 7.55%
    S&P SmallCap 600 Index 2.46% 2.46% 15.93% 2.29% 8.47%
    Morningstar Small Cap Index 5.69% 5.69% 21.51% 2.68% 8.31%
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Cinnamond's investment choices have performed well. One could fault the PM for not showing more conviction in those investments, since clearly additional cash was readily available.
    The ER is too high at 1.26% (for ANY fund).
    I don't know that you can easily categorize this vehicle. It has a purpose for conservative investors. The only way it beats the S&P over time is if we have a market crash.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    TS is VOLATILE lately. (ADR.) Today, 22 May, is dividend payday. Jayzuz, the stock has been whip-sawing for days. I'm not buying. My cost basis is crazy-low compared to more recent share price. It's brutal lately, the ups and downs. I've seen a $40 handle on a 12-month target-price. Down to $33.68 at the moment.
    Will BCE prove to be contrarian? It's up, while all else is down, today.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    You know what else puts this fund into perspective? The fact that it is more than 5 years old and has only attracted $273 million in assets. Maybe most people, like me, see the folly in paying a 1.26 expense ratio for a fund that routinely holds so much cash.
  • Applaud Good Service from service Reps
    It's easy because there are not many providers with great service unless they are very expensive.
    1) After several decades with different discount brokers Schwab is #1 for me, and Fidelity is second and why I have accounts with both for many years.
    2) Amazon has the best service, responds within seconds, and solves everything.
    3) REI: the best camping/sport store with excellent knowledgeable employees and good prices.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    MikeM " @FD1000, you seem to have an incredulous dislike for this manager and his fund."
    FD: There is no dislike here. I used to like PIMIX and had over 50% in it for years, but 0% since 01/2018.
    FAIRX: I owned it for about 8 years during 2000-10, and left it behind since then.
    I only like funds that make money. If they don't I switch I don't care how M* defines it.
    Remember, if Cinnamond is a great star why he hasn't managed the same fund for decades and increased the AUM to billions? Millions of investors have been looking for an edge and all missed it?
    The above is just an opinion, you can do what you like, it's your money.
    I already posted the goals from https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/goal
    Investing for Risk defined as losing money.
    Flexible mandate allows for patience (FD: that means, if we lag, don't blame us :-)
    No sector constraints
    Elevated career risk
    Independent; unique
    Fiduciary duty uninhibited
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    I do not own this but am surprised by the fund owning nearly 40% in bonds and only 13% in equities. So, it is like a bond fund that has a small sliver of equity, which we see in other bond funds. Many bond funds beat this fund over the past 1 year in TR with much lower volatility.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    :) @FD1000, you seem to have an incredulous dislike for this manager and his fund.
    I think others in this thread have said they see this fund as a sleep-easy investment in small caps. If that is important to the investor, what's wrong with that? Why are you harping on it not beating the S&P 500?
    If PVCMX was called a conservative small-cap balanced fund, would that work better? That is more accurate for what the portfolio represents (13% equity, 37% bonds, 45% cash). When thought of as a balanced fund, maybe it's a category beater. It is doing better than the heralded new TRP/Giroux conservative balanced fund PRCFX (41% equity, 53% bonds, 6% cash)
    I think @WABAC said it earlier. This should not be labeled a SC fund. It has a different mandate. The manager doesn't categorize the fund. M* does -> incorrectly it appears.
    FWIW, I do not own the fund. I do own PRCFX, significantly.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    PVCMX continues to trail as expected because VALUATIONs are too high for Cinnamond.
    One year...PVCMX=7.8%...SPY=28.8%
    That is "only" 21% more for the easiest index in the world.
  • Documentary about Charles Schwab on You Tube . . .
    I got the link in today's monthly news from Chuckie. It's 1 hour and 17 minutes long.
  • FDIC in Turmoil
    "Senior bank examiners texted female employees photos of their penises."
    Yikes!

    Presumably no problem with the photos being too large for the texted message to handle? ;-)
    Well, nobody can say the FDIC isn’t being transparent.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    I get ads/mail from Duke energy monthly to get insurance to cover from the house to the street. I ignore them, house is 23yrs old. I never heard of many problems. How common is it to have problems from the house to the street. Crap, I have a river birch right above my water meter but the lines (water/sewer) run pretty deep in the ground. 5-10' deep.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    +1 Mike Wilson just turned bullish. Sell all? :)
    May be not yet. Just move to near the exit. The guy from JPM (Mark K) has not flipped yet. If he thinks he will lose his job if he goes against Dimon's pronouncements, and he may never flip.
  • Vanguard Website
    @hondo
    Wife 401k was at Fido and most of non retirement money at Schwab and Vanguard
    I dislike using one brokerage for redundancy purposes
    Schwab customer service has always been better than Fido although there is the irritating issue of no sweep account.
    As Vanguard has deteriorated over the years I gradually moved our accounts out. Mine to Schwab and most of wife's to Fido.
    If Schwab had a sweep account MMF I might dump Fido altogether but probably not. I think two different brokerages is worth the inconvenience
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "Getting 5% ain't so bad". No, it's not. Going to move about 10% from Schwab SUTXX MMKT into two Treasuries- one for 2025 and one for 2026.