The exodus at Matthews Asia continues...
Sharat Schroff will leave Matthews Asia at the end of the month.
He joined the firm in 2005 and comanaged Matthews Pacific Tiger and Matthews India.
It was also disclosed that Taizo Ishida and John Paul Lech left Matthews Asia on December 19.
They joined the firm in 2006 and 2018 respectively.
"Speaking to Citywire Selector regarding these most recent changes, Cooper Abbott said:
‘Since my arrival at Matthews, we have made some changes, all with the goal of improving
investment results for our clients. A strong investment culture seeks to continually strengthen
investment focus and outcomes. That is what we are doing. Recent investment personnel
terminations are testament to Matthews’ dedication to investment results, making changes
where they are necessary to drive long-term alpha.'"
Article below may be paywalled.
https://citywire.com/selector/news/matthews-asia-s-pacific-equity-fund-under-review-as-veteran-exits/a2432941

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505337-tax-loss-harvesting-definition-rules-examples
Maybe others, like e, did not know any trades for tax losses have to settle by 12/29 so Weds is deadline

The graphic is set for the 5 days ending December 22, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire.
Remain curious,
Catch

LINK
https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
INTERNATIONAL TRADER. EM BONDS are attractive, especially the local-currency EM bonds (LEMB). Dollar-denominated is EMB.
FUNDS. Hot-hand managers are coming to active equity ETFs (TCAF, QLTY, FBCG, CGDV, DCOR, ARKK, etc). There is a flood of active ETFs with 240 new YTD. Much of the growth has been for active equity ETFs after the SEC approved several models a few years ago. The ETF wrapper offers tax-efficiency due to its in-kind creation/redemption. However, most indexes (broad or customized/special) also tend to be tax-efficient. So, active managers have headwinds vs indexes. The active ETFs may have significant differences from their OEF cousins even when both are run by the same team(s) – the ETFs may have fewer stocks or use fewer portfolio strategies. Active ETFs may be only a bit cheaper than their OEF cousins.
FUNDS. @DavidSHERMAN (58) uses value strategies for short-duration (0.75-2 years) HY bond fund CBLDX (ER 0.91%). He also looks for event-driven opportunities – early redemptions, change in control, selloffs following disasters, etc. He expects the yield-curve to normalize in 2024.
INCOME. Higher rates came and went. But bond funds with short/intermediate duration offer high current rates and will benefit from rate declines. Barbell strategies are also good. Mentioned are OEFs STYAX, VMBSX; ETFs AGG, TOTL, PSK (preferreds); CEF PMM (muni).
ECONOMY. FUNDS. Boring won in 2023. This skinny bull driven by Magnificent 7 did wonders for index funds. So, investors who didn’t do much deep analyses and just dumped some money into the SP500 or total market index did well. The SP500 index funds are now 10.7% of the fund universe, the total stock market 6.8%, with both accounting for 17.5% vs 8.76% in 2013. Very interesting considering that the 1st retail SP500 fund in 1976 (Vanguard) was a flop – it raised only $11.3 million in its initial period vs $150 million expected; it could afford only 280/500 stocks; Vanguard total market index fund followed in 1992 and many TDFs hold it. How has the tide turned from the humble beginnings? The SP500 index funds with only 2-4 bps ERs are formidable benchmarks to beat.
Q&A. Joel TILLINGHAST, Fidelity Small/Mid-Cap FLPSX (almost global). He has managed the Fund since its 1989 inception. Considering the regime shifts going on (inflation, taxes, regulation, energy transition, AI, etc), this market is too calm and cheerful, almost like 1999-2000. He likes to see steady and predictable cash flows. Investors may have an edge on small/mid-caps as they are less followed by analysts and institutions. Indexing is very popular now, but active managers will do fine in the long-term. Peter LYNCH taught him to be flexible when things/facts change; to accept errors and move on. He is retiring in 2023, leaving FLPSX in good hands (PECK, CHAMOVITZ), and will devote more time to mentoring, traveling, gardening, and book writing. Previous book, Big Money Thinks Small, 2020.
EXTRA, RETIREMENT. The good news is that Social Security payments will rise +3.2% in 2024 (old news), but the bad news is that it won’t be enough due to high inflation. Although inflation has moderated, that doesn’t mean lower prices. Significantly up are auto insurance, rents, medical care, Medicare Part B Premium. Almost 20% of 65+ are still working.

The Capital Group published cap gains estimates for its ETFs along with the rest of its funds, on December 6 (link is from Shadow's post in 2023 capital gains distribution estimates):
https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/tax/2023-year-end-distributions.html
It republished estimates (same data) more recently (Dec 7th) for individual investors here:
https://www.capitalgroup.com/individual/service-and-support/tax-center/2023-year-end-distributions.html
Some institutions publish income estimates, many do not. Fidelity doesn't. Links again courtesy of Shadow:
https://www.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/information/distributions#/?table=estimated
https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/tabbed/products/FIIS_SP52_DPL6.html?navId=324
A few institutions produce estimated distributions with data as late as early December (e.g. Vanguard), but most seem to at best produce cap gains estimates a single time once October 31st data is available.
There's a reason for that.
https://blog.umb.com/fund-services-insight-mutual-fund-year-end-distributions/
As explained in that piece, in terms of dollars, what matters are primarily dates on the calendar (usually Oct 31 and Dec 31), not record dates. Though the number of shares outstanding on the record date does determine how a fund's gains and income are partitioned.
ETFs, unlike OEFs, have record dates that are a day later than their ex-dates.

Here is the IRS release (and do not forget to read Notice 2024-7 (link included) if the subject applies to you) -
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-helps-taxpayers-by-providing-penalty-relief-on-nearly-5-million-2020-and-2021-tax-returns-restart-of-collection-notices-in-2024-marks-end-of-pandemic-related-pause

Following are edited excerpts from a current Free report from The Washington Post.

The agency is extending the reprieve for the 2021 and 2022 tax years to roughly 4.7 million individuals, businesses, trusts and tax-exempt organizations
Getting a letter from the IRS saying you’re past due on a tax debt can be frightening. That fear often drives people to tax settlement companies that offer hope of significant debt reduction.
IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel says don’t believe the hype. That’s especially good advice now, given a recent action by the agency.
In 2022, short-staffed and struggling to dig out of an enormous pandemic-related backlog, the IRS temporarily suspended the mailing of automated reminders to taxpayers about overdue tax bills for 2020 and 2021. The invoices would have normally been issued after an initial balance-due notice was issued.
With many pandemic issues behind it and staffing up thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act’s boost to the agency’s budget, the IRS announced it will resume mailing collection notices for the 2021 and 2022 tax years in January.
The notices may shock folks who haven’t received an IRS bill for over a year, Werfel said. For individual taxpayers, the median amount owed is $6,751, according to the agency.
“Given that penalties and interest continued to accrue under law, the bill amounts for those who weren’t paying will be larger than the last time they received a letter from the IRS,” Werfel said. “For these affected taxpayers, we know this is a tough situation.”
So, showing a softer side, the IRS has decided to waive the failure-to-pay penalties for about 4.7 million individuals, businesses, trusts and tax-exempt organizations that didn’t get automated reminders of their debts.
But Werfel also issued a caution: “People with unpaid tax bills also need to be wary about aggressive marketing by some places that overinflate promises of wiping out IRS debt,” he said.
There are unscrupulous tax debt settlement companies and scammers who will no doubt try to take advantage of this relief. They may use it as a hook to con you or get you to sign up for an expensive service you don’t need.
“We have seen patterns of behavior in the past where marketers and promoters exploit an opportunity like this,” Werfel said.

@BaluBalu- thanks for the add, BB.

Dated 12 Dec:
https://www.chsinc.com/about-chs/news/news/2023/12/12/chs-board-elections
"At the Annual Meeting, CHS members also approved two amendments to the organization’s bylaws.
The first amendment decreases the number of representative directors in Region 1 from four to three directors and increases the number of representative directors in Region 7 from one to two directors.
The second amendment modifies how dividends are treated when calculating the net income or net loss of an allocation unit from patronage business and provides the Board with increased authority to add an additional amount of patronage income, not to exceed 35%, to the capital reserve."
... that last part I'm not too clear on and want to learn more before adding CHS prefs back to my portfolio. Apart from that question mark, a preliminary first-glance of their FY23 data didn't see any major news ref the safety of these once-popular preferreds.

The team today wrote, in response to JD's observation:

In November of 2021, the fund did have a down -5% day. After a nice run in both equities and macro oriented markets like energy and currencies, on the day after Thanksgiving, there were scares about the Omnicron virus which led to our largest positions moving strongly against us on holiday-shortened low-volume day. (The guys note, separately, that oil dropped 13% in a day, grains and currencies got crushed; macro people call it their "Black Friday".)
From what we could tell, most of our investors were not overly concerned after our -5% day. I believe it’s because they understand that the risk-management process in our macro program cuts risk in losing positions. Unlike some other alternative strategies, ours does not “double down” or increase risk in positions because they are moving against us. The philosophy of trend-oriented macro investing is to rotate out of what is not working, and rotate into what is working, in a disciplined manner, with a risk budget enforced each step of the way.

They conclude with an interesting reflection on having reasonable downside expectations. To date their maximum drawdown has been 9% or so. Their internal models allow that the strategy is susceptible to a worst-case drawdown in the 15-20% range.
The fund is up about 5% YTD, which beats its peer group by about 50%. The most curious note is that either its peer group is imploding or Morningstar is quietly reclassifying a lot of funds. In 2020 there were 100 funds in the macro trading group. Today there are 59.

Bronner's , Frankenmuth MI Tis always Christmas in some parts of Michigan.
Christmas, MI

Interesting guys.
I’ve felt rightly or wrongly that Dow 37,000 (reached 2 years ago) is a decent marker of sentiment and valuation. That’s about where it still is today (I’m guessing that’s about neutral today). So, FWIW, I’m pretty much stuck in neutral - where I’ve been all year long. I recognize the Dow doesn’t represent the greater market or have any special significance. But over the years it’s been a half-decent guide for me (of euphoria vs bust). At least as good as 75% of the market prognosticators.
Did unload BINC a few days ago and move into an IG short term (1-3 years) bond ETF. Not a market call. I expect the former will continue to perform well. Just trying to reduce overall risk profile as a decent year ends and with potential distributions in mind. It seemed as good a place as any to take a little risk off the table. (Equity exposure fell slightly from 48% down to 46% as a consequence of the move.)
I’m structured into 10 equally weighted static segments (all but one represented by a single holding), so selling / replacing any one position is a pretty significant move, Also limits my ability to add or reduce risk incrementally. So far so good. But it’s a relatively new methodology for me.
There are so many cross-currents regarding the financial landscape now it’s hard for me to form an opinion on the future course of the economy or stock valuations. Wars, Sino-tensions, disfunction in DC, consumer attitudes re prices, and the approaching elections. All of this has to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.

The Christmas rally trend starts when they start putting Christmas decorations up at Home Depot and Lowes. Somewhere in October. But seriously, as I think someone else said, I've always seen Oct, Nov and Dec as the Santa Clause rally..

The average monthly S&P500 stock market returns from 1980 to 2019 were:
January: +0.82%
February: +0.29%
March: +0.96%
April: +1.51%
May: +0.97%
June: +0.02%
July: +0.79%
August: -0.15%
September: -0.70%
October: +0.92%
November: +1.48%
December: +1.11%

The data also supports another adage:

"Sell in May and go away" is an investing adage that says an investor can improve annual returns by selling stocks in May and not reinvesting until November.

Put them together and you have, Go away in May and come back for the Christmas rally!

A Santa Claus rally is the tendency for the S&P 500 index to increase over the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. The term was first coined in the 1970s in the Stock Trader's Almanac.
So...we ain't quite there yet. Still in the December melt up period.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but Investopedia says:
”ASanta Claus rally is the sustained increase in the stock market that occurs around the Christmas holiday on Dec. 25. Most estimate these rallies happen in the week leading up to the Christmas holiday, while others see trends that begin Christmas Day through Jan. 2.”

@Sven, AAII Sentiment is contrarian. It is too optimistic now, and so are the other sentiment indicators (see below). This party may go on for a while - good seasonality, Holidays/New Year, etc. New highs in DJIA may be followed by new highs in SP500, then in Nasdaq Comp, then possibly in R2000.
Sentiment isn't very effective for full ON/OFF timing. But I use it in this way: I don't sell when Sentiment is very positive, I don't buy when it is very positive.
So, I am not buying here and have a finger on the trigger to sell a few things. I do have (and always maintain) a decent allocation to equities.
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 82.55% (overbought) (Wednesday's drop didn't change the big picture much)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 85.60% (overbought)

AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/20/23
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (52.9%; high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (20.9%, low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (26.2%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +32.0% (very high). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (95+ weeks); Israel-Hamas (10+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were mixed, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. DJIA reached new highs, SP500 nearly so. Oil rose on Suez-Red-Sea corridor disruption. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1292/thread

In the list of US steel producers by tonnes, I see X & CLF as US #2 & #3, or US #3 & #2. Market-cap rankings may be different. This global list has data from 06/2011-06/2022. If Nippon Steel's bid for X is successful, it will move to global #2 spot; China will have global #1, #4, #5, #6 AND other spots. List also shows 10-yr production history, and CLF seems a new kid on the block that grew from acquisitions in the last few years (unless the table has some missing data).
Wiki, 2011-22 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_steel_producers
World Steel Assoc, 2021-22 https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/statistics/top-producers/

I question why Nippon would even make such a bid that isn't even in the top 5 of US steel manufacturers.

ybb, tnx
I figured Cliff was probably not for real.
I will ask family who live and worked in this area of trade academe their take
Amazing outcome over 80 years.
Art Buchwald 50y ago used to write wit columns and Tom Lehrer sang his songs about how Vietnam should simply study Germany and Japan to see how things go after countries lose to the United States.

https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/what-are-fund-flows-why-do-they-matter
Quote: "Are Fund Flows a Reliable Investment Indicator? As it turns out, interpreting fund flows and their relationship with performance isn't cut and dry, and trends have emerged that call the signaling power of flows into question. For example, persistent outflows have plagued U.S. equity funds even during periods of strong market performance."
Remember, the SP500 is up at least 80% of the years since 1980.

The last 3 months of the year tend to be the best in the last 5-10-15 years: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=SPY and extend to 5-10-15 years (use the bar below the chart).