AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/16/24 AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/16/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (4
5.
5%, high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (2
5.
5%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (29.2%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +20.1% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (138+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (
53+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above
50-dMA 7
5.84% (overbought). Unusually rare positive Sept followed by strong Oct (so far). Then, good seasonality Nov 1 - Apr 30. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1703/thread
Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts Funds don't make this easy, but it's possible to figure out from prospectus whether a fund
accrues dividends daily and pays monthly (from an accrual account), or the dividends are
flowed-through the NAV.
In the latter case, there will be some language in the prospectus alerting that the fund NAV will be reduced on ex-dividend date, and possibly to avoid buying the (taxable) dividend just ahead of the ex-div date. If such language is missing, then the fund likely accrues daily but pays monthly - and the NAV doesn't change due to dividend payout on ex-dividend date.
Another way to figure this out is looking at the actual-prices for _TICKER in Stockcharts and see if there are dips on ex-distribution dates.
Most bond mutual funds accrue daily and payout monthly. An example is PIMIX where no dips are seem on ex-div dates (but only market fluctuations),
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=PIMIX&id=p65542786213&compare=_PIMIX&perf=falseIt isn't easy to find bond funds that flow dividends through the NAV (most hybrid & equity funds do so). But CBLDX is mentioned, so let's check it out - one can see unmistakable dips in NAV on ex-div dates.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=CBLDX&id=p04828864147&compare=_CBLDX&perf=falseAnother example is
USFR (most/all? eTF dividends flow-through the NAV),
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=USFR&id=p67039130505&compare=_USFR&perf=false
OPINIONS ABOUT HBLIX FUND d@ducrow - You are correct that HBLIX is a bit more conservative than LOGIX. It holds considerably more fixed income / bonds and a lesser amount of equities. Both look like decent funds. “Year-over-year” LOGIX is up 21.74% (M*) while HBLIX is up “only” 18.91%. Both have been hot. So how much real risk reduction? Your plan might resemble leaping from the red hot frying pan into the bubbling stew pot. A bit cooler …..
Sounds like the contemplated switch is based in part on the premise that interest rates will continue falling. Maybe they will … Personally, I’m not too sure about that. It’s not the Fed or politicians that will ultimately determine longer term interest rates (a popular misconception). It’s things like government debt-load, inflation, economic growth / recessions, geo-politics (including wars), the dollar on the foreign exchanges and “black swans” like the recent global pandemic. A 10-year bond at just over 4% seems very low to those of us here who came of age in the 70s when mortgages were running 1
5+%.
I don’t think you can go wrong adding to cash after a couple very hot years. I also like a toe-hold in the precious metals - however they’ve been bid up a lot lately and could suffer a big correction. There’s not much out there that looks cheap to me right now in either fixed income or equities. Use a
portfolio analyzer as one gage of where you are on the risk spectrum.
I note you own DODBX. Excellent fund. I owned it for many years before finally selling a year or so ago as part of a “consolidation” of assets under one umbrella.
Re Mike’s remark. if you type a fund’s symbol in capital letters the board’s software automatically highlights it and creates a link to a variety of sources. Good idea. I hadn’t paid much attention to that since I dwell mainly at the M* site and don’t mind entering symbols manually.
Good luck.
Follow up to my Schwab discussion Litner, the system forced me to do the sell first.
MSF, I usually sell the whole position, I believe in very concentrated portfolio of just 2-3 funds.
Funds that I see a potential, I sell minus 2 shares per account and why I don't know the final amount.
But, I trade bond funds and in most cases I buy at 99% at "normal" markets. In a very risky market I go to MM and I buy at 95%.
The whole MM business is mostly irrelevant for me because I'm usually invested at 99+%. I trade one fund, not MM, for another fund. This is where Schwab shines over Fidelity where you can buy only 90% and must call a broker. That missing day of just 0.1% in 2-3 accounts can easily be worth at least $1000+1500 per year. This is a major part of my system, and what annoys me most at Fidelity.
DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited) As of now, DJT is up 1
5% for the day. As
@hank mentioned, I would look at the betting sites more than this stock price as a sentiment indicator.
OPINIONS ABOUT HBLIX FUND I'm 70. Officially OLD. Are not DODBX and HBLIX a bit more like each other, compared to WBALX? I just threw that one into the mix. And Morningstar doesn't always label and align things very well. I own WBALX. Performance-wise, HBLIX and WBALX are in the same 5-year ballpark. DODBX outruns the other two over 5 years, but it is not avowedly "conservative" or even "moderately conservative." Of the three, WBALX holds the highest bond quality. HBLIX offers the highest yield among them. (Morningstar.) Anyhow, how many different AA/balanced funds does a person need? If you've decided to make a switch toward less beta and volatility, I'd lose DODBX and replace it with one of the other two---assuming you've made your money, and growth is not any longer the highest priority. Never a bad time to act on your priorities, unless the Market is in turmoil. The Market's been volatile, but it's always a matter of degree. I would not call it turmoil, as the Indices march ever-upward.
Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts Congrats to those here in the CLO bond ETFs. More specifically JAAA and PAAA in the investment grade hovering around 6% YTD with nary a drawdown. And JBBB and CLOZ in the below investment grade hovering around 8.5% YTD with just a blip. The blip occurred in early August on recession fears. I prefer holding an OEF equivalent which I have previously referenced. Also I have a quirk when it comes to OEF bond funds. I prefer the ones that pay daily vs. the ones that pay monthly. A reason I just sold off CBLDX. Great fund but another bond category has been steadily rising recently and prefer to park money there.
Will be on a long posting sabbatical as the backcountry hiking season is just around the corner. Time to explore for new caves, rock shelters, arches, and waterfalls. At 77 I never know how many more years I will be able to handle the rigors and dangers of solo off trail explorations. As it is the rangers have a fit this elderly man is back there in the middle of nowhere. Not so much out of compassion for an injured hiker as for the logistics of a backcountry search and rescue, Also unable to respond to any private messages as I will not be signing here in much less checking in. Best of luck to all in their investing endeavors.
BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024 @Derf, Reinvestment risk has arrived as the safe
5% yield CDs and money market are no longer exist. Unless 4% yield is acceptable to you, I think there are other viable choices.
I track the short duration indices/funds such as MINT and SHY and invest in government and corporate bond index funds. The yields are in the range of 4.0-4.
5%, and the total return % range about 4%.
Intermediate duration bonds are as far as I would invest. Their yields are a bit lower but the bond prices will go up in the rate cut cycle through 202
5. Here is where I moved $ to as CDs and T bill matured. So far so good.
Some posters here prefer junk bonds which have done well this yield yields over 6%. Here you need to made your own decision. I prefer to strike a balance between risk and reward.
DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited) I listened to most of the Bloomberg interview. It lasted over an hour. I felt Micklethwait did a poor job fact-checking / holding Trump accountable on a variety of issues. I posted some of my reactions in off topic. Just my own observation. Others may / will disagree. The setting was in front of members of the “Chicago Economic Club” in Chicago. There was a pro-Trump bias in the audience from the start. But I do not think that materially affected the interview.
What the news outlets seized on was Micklethwait’s holding Trump “to the fire” on issues surrounding his conversations with Vladimir Putin - particularly the issue of sending Putin covid testing equipment during the pandemic. Trump back-peddled a bit and refused to say whether or not he’d had any discussions with Putin. The media picked up on this as being inconsistent with his earlier flat denials. Yes, this could have moved the price of Trump Media today.
I’m wondering if Trump Media might have been affected by today’s ruling by a Georgia judge that the Republican imposed “hand count” rule cannot be implemented. The process will revert back to that previously used. This is being viewed as a negative for Trump who might have benefited from the resulting chaos and delay. I just posted an excerpt re this ruling from the WSJ in off topic.
You are right that gambling has nothing to do with elections. But we are a nation of gamblers. And I will tell you that the professional odds-makers are quite accurate. If they predict the total runs scored in a a BB game will be 7 or 9 or 5 chances are they are very close to the actual number. Don’t ask me how they know. I’d put the betting odds right up there with the polls as an indication of how the election might turn.
Follow up to my Schwab discussion @msf If the remaining
5% is still sizeable, rinse and repeat. What do you consider sizeable ?
How much risk and money is important is an individual preference. If I'm moving $100K from an investment to a non-sweep MMF, I'm not going to care about giving Schwab use of the entire $100K for a day. That's roughly (
very roughly) $100K x 4% / 400 days = $10. Peanuts to many.
What I personally care about is not the floating of some cash but in being out of the market for a day. If I sell $100K and wait a day to purchase a replacement security, especially if it is a lateral move (replacing one fund for another of the same type), I want that money continuously invested.
Sure, the market might go down in that day and I'd be able to buy more shares. But it might also go up and I'd lose on the "exchange". I prefer to eliminate that market risk. If the market (funds in question) move even 1% in that day, that's $1K that I might lose or make depending on my luck that day. Four figure amounts look like real money to me.
Again, it's a personal matter. I don't like putting money at risk, even with
50:
50 odds, if I don't need to. Others don't care about such short term risks. I'm comfortable losing the price of a movie ticket ($10). I'm not thrilled at putting the price of two cross country round trip tickets at risk. (I'm cheap - I book economy, nonrefundable.)
Follow up to my Schwab discussion @msf If the remaining
5% is still sizeable, rinse and repeat. What do you consider sizeable ?
DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited) Via Mediaite:
Investors and day traders apparently did not like what they heard from former President Donald Trump on Tuesday.
Trump gave a whirlwind interview with Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on Tuesday, during which the ex-president once again promoted tariffs as an economic panacea, slammed the Federal Reserve, gave irrelevant responses, and told his interlocutor, “You’ve been wrong all your life on this stuff.”
The interview began at 12:49 p.m. ET and lasted until 1:53 p.m. ET. When it started, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group – the company that owns Trump’s Truth Social platform – were trading at $32.74 – above the opening price of $32.19. By the time Trump was done taking questions, the stock was down modestly to $31.89 before giving way to a precipitous downward move that saw the price bottom out at $25.16. About 90 minutes before the closing bell, shares rallied somewhat and ended the day at $27.06, losing $5.13 a share for the session. The wild moves prompted an automatic halt in trading on the NASDAQ.
Follow up to my Schwab discussion If you sell all the shares of PRWCX, you don't know the exact results, just buy 95%. The next day buy the rest of the MM.
Yes, Schwab made money on that small amount.
Why give Schwab the float? What I've done at Vanguard is sell a dollar amount equal to 95% of the previous close and purchased that amount of the target fund (here, a non-sweep MMF). No float on this first step.
If the remaining 5% is still sizeable, rinse and repeat.
Otherwise, sell the remainder and do a same day purchase of 95% of that remainder. This reduces the float from 5% to 5% of 5%, i.e. 25 basis points. Less if you've iterated.
If you place a sell order for 95%+ of a position in dollars, Vanguard issues a warning. It says that if the shares aren't enough to cover your sell order, it will liquidate your position. But it still lets you place these orders.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. My own "dawgs" included ENIC and PSTL, but surely are not limited to those two. I'm sworn off REITS and RE funds. All we can do is to do our due diligence and research and then make a choice to pull the trigger, or NOT. (James Bond, to "Q:" "It's hard to know which, in your pyjamas.") I want to be diversified without being di-worse-i-fied.
TODAY: I took a BCE (Bell Canada) dividend and put the money to work, buying (tomorrow) shares in WCPNX (Weitz Core-Plus bonds) in the taxable account, to grow a dividend stream that can be tapped, without tapping the Trad. IRA. I'll take my usual chunk from the IRA in early January. And I've stopped letting Uncle Chuck reinvest single-stock dividends for me: they do it at their own convenience; they can't be trusted to reinvest with the customer's advantage in mind. If I use such dividends to buy single-stock shares, I'll use Limit Orders. If selling, I've learned from one of you about Stop-Loss Orders. Many thanks. I'm not growing the BCE position because I don't love to pay 15% taxes to Revenue Canada. It's still a negligible amount, and the dividend is outsized. On that basis, I don't mind. If the dividend shrinks, I'll rethink my position.
lovable losers? The WSJ on active ETFs JEPI was advertised pretty heavy on Morningstar, Bloomberg, CNBC in 2021. and then 2022 happened which sent inflows to the moon on this thing. /investing on reddit had gobs of 20 somethings building JEPI/SCHD heavy portfolios which was interesting.
JEPI's stated benchmark is the sp500 but tries to match it with less volatility. it gets the volatility part right but for probably most of the dollars invested in this thing, its been a flop.
Hopefully people learn their lesson and build a portfolio with these products for the long term but thats not how it seems it goes. people will still pile into good performers and then sell when it doesn't go their way.
see ARKK.
Follow up to my Schwab discussion When selling or exchanging shares, you should be aware of the following fund policies:
For accounts held through a financial intermediary, each fund typically expects to pay sale proceeds to the financial intermediary for payment to redeeming shareholders within two business days following receipt of a shareholder redemption order; however, each fund may take up to seven days to pay sale proceeds."
Bizarre wording given that you can buy them only through intermediaries and not directly through the fund.
In any case, the above general settlement time language is similar as in many mutual funds' prospectus. Below is the link to the prospectus (strange that I pulled it in my Schwab account and I get a morningstar.com link.)
https://doc.morningstar.com/docdetail.aspx?clientid=schwab&key=84b36f1bf3830e07&cusip=808515605
It is not all that unusual for fund families, especially boutique firms, to sell funds only through third party distributors.
At one time Janus closed off its direct sales channel to new investors. It allowed only existing investors with class D shares to continue investing directly. Everyone else had to buy T shares through third parties.
Schwab originated as a brokerage and likely leaned on that distribution channel when it started running funds.
With respect to M*, as I recall it used to make prospectuses available to users of its websites. As with much of M*'s content, M* seems to have monetized its fund documents:
The Clients We Serve
The Morningstar Document Library is ideal for brokerage firms or retirement plan service providers that want to outsource costly document collection and maintenance. In addition to this web interface, the Document Library can also be private-labeled or provided through APIs. Advisors and plan providers can grant investors direct access to the library via their own websites, ensuring investors receive immediate access to key documents. Fund companies and compliance officers find it a valuable resource for current and archived proprietary and competitor filings.
https://doc.morningstar.com/home.aspxNote the "clientid=schwab" argument in the URL.
M* is providing all of the fund documentation for Schwab, not just for Schwab funds. For example, here's Schwab's page for FCNTX and the link to the fund's prospectus.
https://www.schwab.com/research/mutual-funds/quotes/summary/fcntxhttps://doc.morningstar.com/docdetail.aspx?clientid=schwab&key=84b36f1bf3830e07&cusip=316071109M* is not the only third party provider of Schwab fund prospectuses. Here's your same SWVXX prospectus hosted by righprospectus.com
https://connect.rightprospectus.com/Schwab/TVT/808515605/SP?site=FundDocsAnd links to all the Schwab fund docs hosted there:
https://connect.rightprospectus.com/Schwab/
Providing the right document solutions at the right time, every time
Donnelley Financial Solutions′s RightProspectus is the next generation in compliance communications for mutual fund, variable annuity, and retirement product providers, as well as broker/dealers and clearing firms. With RightProspectus, documents in our repository are automatically tracked and updated as changes are filed with the SEC, ensuring constant access to the most current and accurate prospectuses. RightProspectus represents a quantum leap forward featuring a new, state-of-the-art online platform.
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