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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CFPB halts work after Trump appoints Bessent as acting head
    1984 double-speak. Oceania has ALWAYS been at war with East Asia! (Right?) This "Administration" is deliberately destroying trust in US institutions. Lie, deceive, dissemble, mischaracterize, misconstrue. This is heinous criminal junk. Do ya really think we have TIME to wait for the courts to make rulings, and then--- just like so many domestic abusers--- the perps simply IGNORE the courts. There will be not much left.
  • Ocean shipping, Panama Canal.
    You guys are running a sit com. Ya I just added a couple of zeros to make someone chase their tail. $630m is about $20b today. Ok the US (contractor) lost 22-30,000 workers. I saw when googled “ Estimates of the number of people who died building the Panama Canal range from 22,000 to 30,000. The Panama Canal is considered the deadliest construction project in history.”
    Wait, so you just appear and throw out slop for the heck of it? wtf?
    Today's online world is overflowing with slop and worse than slop. Go away ffs.
  • Vanguard lowers fees across mutual funds and etfs
    Most are going down only 1 basis point. Not sure why it's generating this level of media coverage ... it's a non-issue for most people who wouldn't even notice.
    Headline:
    Vanguard drop it's fees 50%
    - that's the kinda hype going from 1.5 basis point to 1 basis point creates... not much in your pocket, but it's a 50% savings!
  • Ocean shipping, Panama Canal.
    Despite the monumental effort, about 5,600 workers died from disease and accidents during the US construction phase of the canal. Of these, the great majority were West Indian laborers, particularly those from Barbados. The number of Americans who died was about 350.
    Wickipedia, ref McCullough 1977, pp. 582–585, 610.
    $375,000,000 in 1914 = $11,835,187,500 in 2025. So what?
    @Gary1952 has a lot in common with that army helicopter pilot: "I have the aircraft in sight". Right.
    Trumpers just make up fake "facts" whenever it suits them (which is most of the time).
  • Ocean shipping, Panama Canal.
    You might want to re-Google or AI your numbers.
    "Records indicate that during the period of US construction, more than 55,000 people were employed and an estimated 5,600 died of injury and disease. The death toll would have been higher without effective protocols to control vectorborne diseases, in effect a second “special wonder of the canal.” LINK
    The French lost the other 20K during their effort to construct the canal prior to going bankrupt.
  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    What the hell is his infatuation with "10,000" ...?
    10,000 troops 'never came' to the Capitol on 1/6 (he alleges, total lie)
    10,000 Mexican troops to the border
    10,000 Canadan police to the border
    It's like he just fixates on what he thinks is a 'nice round number' or something.
  • Tariff Markets Open....
    The big Bluff was shot down. He can't really revive this, but his ego might force him to try.
    Is the US border "safer" with 10K Mexican soldiers stationed there? Not confident about that one.
    It's their Guardia Nacional. What could possibly go wrong?
    I can't imagine anyone was impressed by this performance piece. Well, Putin was impressed for a little while at least: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/putin-says-europe-will-stand-at-feet-of-master-as-trump-imposes-tariffs.html
    “I assure you: Trump, with his character, with his persistence, he will restore order there [Europe] quite quickly. And all of them, you will see — it will happen quickly, soon — they will all stand at the feet of the master and will wag their tails a little. Everything will fall into place,”
  • Tariff Markets Open....
    The big Bluff was shot down. He can't really revive this, but his ego might force him to try.
    Is the US border "safer" with 10K Mexican soldiers stationed there? Not confident about that one.
  • Ocean shipping, Panama Canal.
    Free passage for US warships through the Panama Canal.
    I heard this on the radio this morning and the first word that popped into my head was "extortion".
    That's a nice canal you have over there. Sure would be a shame if something were to happen to it.
    The quotes sound like a Rubio PR piece.
    Take "high fees charged to US ships". Rubio himself acknowledged: "the high fees for canal transit disproportionately affect Americans, because U.S. cargo accounts for nearly three-quarters of canal transits".
    Use the canal more, pay more. That doesn't seem so hard to understand.
    https://www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/1/sen-cruz-evidence-shows-panama-may-be-in-violation-of-canal-treaty
    Withdrawal from China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
    Panama conceded nonrenewal, not withdrawal, though it will attempt the latter.
    https://nypost.com/2025/02/03/us-news/panama-to-end-relationship-with-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative/
    "Free passage" and "optimizing transit priority" sound like they may violate the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal between Panama and the US.
    The Republic of Panama declares the neutrality of the Canal in order that both in time of peace and in time of war it shall remain secure and open to peaceful transit by the vessels of all nations on terms of entire equality, so that there will be no discrimination against any nation, or its citizens or subjects, concerning the conditions or charges of transit, or for any other reason,
    https://2001-2009.state.gov/p/wha/rlnks/11936.htm
  • CFPB halts work after Trump appoints Bessent as acting head
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post:
    The consumer watchdog agency was formed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Elon Musk wants to “delete” it.
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau halted much of its work to investigate and penalize corporate wrongdoing on Monday, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — tapped to lead the watchdog on an acting basis — ordered an agency-wide review to “promote consistency” with the new Trump administration.
    Shortly after assuming the post, Bessent and his aides ordered bureau staff in an email to cease crafting regulations, enforcing rules, conducting probes or providing “public communications of any type,” according to a copy obtained by The Washington Post, which said he had instituted the ban “effective immediately.”
    The missive appeared to herald a stark shift for the CFPB, a powerful agency formed in the wake of the 2008 banking crisis to protect consumers from unfair, deceptive or predatory financial practices. It came on the same day that President Donald Trump named Secretary of State Marco Rubio acting administrator of another agency, the U.S. Agency for International Development, which the administration moved to shutter as part of a broad and contested effort to slash government spending and regulation.
    The financial watchdog is a longtime target of Republicans’ scorn: Party lawmakers have threatened for years to defund the CFPB or neuter its powers — and tech billionaire Elon Musk, who is advising Trump on his reconfiguration of American government, has called on Congress to “delete” the bureau entirely.
    Under President Joe Biden, the CFPB had been active and aggressive: Its leader, Rohit Chopra, issued a wide array of rules to crack down on predatory lending, reduce the burden of medical debt and cut fees that customers pay when they fall behind on their credit card bills or overextend their checking accounts. Chopra also expanded the bureau’s watch over Apple, Google and other tech giants as their digital payment apps grew more popular with consumers.
    Trump similarly moved to restrain the CFPB during his first term. His acting director then — former congressman Mick Mulvaney — at one point requested no new money for the agency and settled its pending enforcement actions, sometimes for as little as $1.
    This time, Republicans have promised to pursue even more significant changes to the CFPB, targeting its leadership structure, investigative powers and funding source; the bureau gets its money from the Federal Reserve. Last week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) unveiled the latest bill to curtail its funding, describing the CFPB as an “unelected, unaccountable bureaucratic agency.”
  • EU-Mexico-Chile-Mercosur. Trade Agreement Analysis
    Now I'm confused. Are you talking about the modernization of the EU-Mexico agreement (literally the subject of the cited article), the modernization of the EU-Chile agreement, and/or the new EU-Mercosur agreement?
    I ask because you talk of the EU doing business in LAC - Latin America plus the Carribean. The only agreement with CARIFORUM mentioned in the article was penned back in 2008. It's not one of the broader "next-generation" agreements that the article discusses.
    Here's one example of how these new agreements "reflect a shared vision of ... the rule of law". The EU-Mercosur agreement prohibits either side from "not enforcing environmental and labour laws".
    Perhaps if you could likewise quote a sentence or two it would help clarify what it is you are reading into the rule of law as reflected in which agreement(s).
    The verbatim agreement text supporting the above quote:
    In addition, the Parties agree in Article XX [TSD].2(3) of this Agreement that they should not weaken the levels of protection afforded in domestic environmental or labour law with the intention of encouraging trade or investment. The Parties recall that, under Article XX [TSD].2(5) of this Agreement, they agree that they shall not fail, through a sustained or recurring course of action or inaction, to effectively enforce their environmental or labour laws, in order to encourage trade or investment. In this regard, the parties acknowledge the importance of the provision of appropriate available means to perform such enforcement. Moreover, pursuant to Article XX [TSD].2(6) of this Agreement the Parties shall not apply environmental and labour laws in a manner that would constitute a disguised restriction on trade or an unjustifiable or arbitrary discrimination.
    https://circabc.europa.eu/ui/group/09242a36-a438-40fd-a7af-fe32e36cbd0e/library/19d538eb-d33c-4039-8afa-42dfe7cc66b6/details?download=true
  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    Some genies won't be going quietly back into their bottles:
    https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/national/b-c-critical-minerals-being-diverted-away-from-united-states-david-eby/article_ff720605-b2b9-516c-8ef1-ccb547035ea5.html
    British Columbia's premier says major companies in the province are in the process of redirecting critical minerals and energy products to markets outside the United States as the reality of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs sets in.
    David Eby says he has spoken with leaders of major mining and refining companies in B.C., and they indicated they are pivoting operations to redirect products such as aluminum and copper to alternative markets.
    Eby told a news conference in North Vancouver that a "historic reordering" of global trading patterns is underway, and B.C. will not be left out.
    And I doubt Ford changes his mind about tearing up that contract with Starlink.
  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    Doesn't look like much more than Canada had already announced:
    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-trudeau-talk-canada-braces-090038783.html
    Just a joint task force on organized crime. Didn't even have to mobilize their army on our border. LOL.
    Added at 1505 MST:
    10000 is the magic number :) https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-trump-speak-trade-war-1.7448805
    Trudeau said, all told, there will be 10,000 front-line personnel working along the border to address Trump's stated priority: a major crackdown on drugs and migrants.
    The prime minister also made a series of new commitments to Trump, including a promise to appoint a new fentanyl "czar" who will lead Canada's efforts to crack down on the deadly drug. And he promised to list Mexican cartels, one of the top purveyors of fentanyl and other drugs in Canada and the U.S., as terrorists under Canadian law.
    Trudeau said Canada is launching a "Canada-U.S. Joint Strike Force," that will be tasked with combating organized crime and money laundering.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Tom Bowley (mentioned and quoted extensively by one of the posters) was uber bearish and sold portfolio to 100% cash on Friday (https://youtube.com/watch?v=t2QIKw-O2wg). Today, he is live streaming his webinar titled "Bearish Signals Abound: Navigate the Uncertainty" on Youtube in 50 minutes -
    https://www.youtube.com/live/axOGOHPHADE
    Not a recommendation, just an FYI.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I sold 20% 35% of my Bitcoin ETF and was surprised to see it is slightly up today but off 8+% from today's low. GLD is up too. If anyone is tracking meme coins, please post how they (as a group) have done today. I suspect not too well, given Ethereum (not considered a meme coin) is tanking at 17.5% on the day. So, risk off is still on.
    I sold out and took profits on a few trump trades that did not recover well during the day today. So, out of FNMA.
    I figured anything that did not recover well during the day today is ultra speculative even for the gamblers in this market.
  • Tariff Markets Open....
    It's only for a month. And it looks like Trump finally got Mexico to pay for a wall - not an engineered wall, but a wall of 10,000 soldiers on the border.
    From what I've seen, much of his 'win' over Mexico is 'getting' them to do exactly what Biden was able to get them to do ... though Biden did it without causing diplomatic or markets drama.
  • Tariff Markets Open....
    +1
    Now the illegal migrants and drugs can pass under the protection of 10,000 soldiers. Any agreement that does not tie to verifiable numbers is just another Houdini’s act.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I sold out of about half of my current MM positions. In taxable I added to NUV which sports a 4.43% tax-free income. In the IRA, I added to JPIE, and initiated new positions in JPST and PFFA. These changes lift the current portfolio distribution percentage to 4.05%.
    If interested, here is a nice write up of JPIE by Charles Lynn Bolin:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4747546?gt=3cab215a7d0a87a5
  • Tariff Markets Open....

    Huh. I did not expect the US markets to react this way. We remain in bizarroworld.

    Haven’t you guys heard? Mexico’s been cancelled.
    Story
    ”Who’s on first. I Dunno’s on second.”
    Pretty sure we guys are all aware of what all happened today.
    And um, no, not cancelled.
    Paused (per your linked article) and delayed (until March 1) are the two most commonly used words to describe (the insanity).