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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Physics Nobel Goes to...AI
    The chemistry Nobel goes partially to AI.
    https://apnews.com/article/nobel-chemistry-prize-56f4d9e90591dfe7d9d840a8c8c9d553
    These will provide huge boosts to profitless (so far) AI investment themes (many say AI-hype). So, I am changing the OP category from Off-topic to Other Investing.
  • The Ensemble Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103243/000141304224000794/enscls497.htm
    497 1 enscls497.htm
    A series of PFS Funds
    Supplement dated October 8, 2024
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated February 28, 2024
    This supplement updates information currently in the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information. Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the PFS Funds (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) relating to the Ensemble Fund (the “Fund”), effective October 3, 2024. Ensemble Capital Management, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”), has recommended to the Board to approve the Plan due to the pending acquisition of the Adviser and the acquiring entity’s desire not to continue the mutual fund business. As a result, the Board has concluded that it is in the best interest of the shareholders to liquidate the Fund.
    In connection with the proposed liquidation and dissolution of the Fund called for by the Plan, the Board has directed the Trust’s principal underwriter to cease offering shares of the Fund immediately as of the date of this Supplement. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until liquidation. While undergoing an orderly liquidation, the Fund will invest in cash equivalents and will not be pursuing its investment objective.
    It is anticipated that the Fund will liquidate on or about October 24, 2024. Any remaining shareholders on the date of liquidation will receive a distribution of their remaining investment value in full liquidation of the Fund. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund toll-free at 1-800-785-8165.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of any redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    This Supplement, and the existing Prospectus dated February 28, 2024, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated February 28, 2024, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-800-785-8165.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The last but one segment in the Blog
    S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (10/08/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    01:04 Topics
    01:57 The Resilient Jobs Market
    04:41 Labor Market: Still Cooling
    08:34 Big Shift in Fed Easing Expectations
    10:52 Bond Market Got Ahead of Itself
    14:32 China Goes Parabolic
    22:45 Declining Dividend Yields
    25:25 More Affordable Rents
    Video
    Blog - 10/08 blog not currently available
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    My problem with qqmnx, which I own, is that it really isn’t “market neutral.” It has a .61 correlation with the S&P 500, according to PV. The Vanguard and AQR market neutral funds have negative correlation to the S&P 500. Qqmnx is also the only of the three with a positive beta to the overall market. If the goal is non-correlated returns to the stock market this may not be the best vehicle. That being said, if it is a piece of an overall strategy to achieve non correlated returns, it may be perfect.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    As to what constitutes "that moment in time", I can only speak for myself. I tend to look for things which are showing a pattern of doing well over the last couple of weeks as a validation of performance over the last month or two. Something that did well three months ago or before, but is currently stumbling, might indicate an inflection or an accident in composition. The same is true of something which has done nothing for six months, but is currently doing well. Might mean something; might not. It does me little good to be involved with something which did well a year ago, but hasn't in the last month or more. That's a trader's perspective, certainly, and not for everyone.
    This is also the perspective of someone who has enough, and who doesn't want to lose what has been gained; I don't, after all, have 30 years to smooth out losses. Purely binary outcomes with roughly equal odds are not appealing. While willing to run risks, I prefer to control the extent of the risk and want to be paid to take that risk. Right now, I chose not to risk a lot, because I don't think you can expect to be paid adequately for taking that risk. So far this year, I've gotten about 70% of the market, while usually holding less than 50% equity and haven't felt at risk. Everyone's situation is different, but I consider that to be a good outcome.
  • Morningstar Fund Category Definitions (US), April & October 2024
    You beat me to this. Thanks for sharing this out and sorry there was a delay in posting it to our site. Fwiw, I believe we had already publicly announced the changes back in April. https://advisor.morningstar.com/ReleaseNewsLive/releasePopUp.aspx?Id=1835&type=Product&name=Advisor Workstation
  • America Risks Running Out of Tickers for Single-Stock ETFs
    A nonissue.
    Only the current rules for single stock eTF tickers are too restrictive.
    Reserving tickers shouldn't be free, but should have some nominal cost. Also, copycat tickers shouldn't be allowed - those reserved by others that are similar to existing company names/tickers.
    Look at how the ADRs are named. The ADR tickers may have identifiable letters, or not. They end in Y or F.
    So, single stock ETFs can just end in S.
    Many foreign tickers are all numbers (Japan, S Korea, HK), so a mix of letters and numbers can be used.
    All mutual funds have 5-letter tickers that end in X.
    There are also thousands of Nasdaq/NFN tickers for funds that don't trade - VAs, etc. Nasdaq charges a small fee for those. These 6-letter tickers start with Q and end in X, e.g. QzzzzX. MFOP now recognizes several.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    1) hank "@FD / Wouldn’t it help people more if you posted what different investments will do in the next 1, 5, 10 years rather than what they did in the past?"
    FD: your claim is pretty old. I don't predict what would be good, I invest based on what markets do currently and what I have posted for about 15 years on different sites.
    You can read real time trades (here). What I think about bonds (here) and market calls (here).
    2) hank: day/frequent trader
    FD: I never said I'm one. I said I'm a trader and I'm not ashamed of it, while many who trade as much as me or more can't admit they are one.
    3) BB: what does FD say about the prospects going forward for QQMNX or the L/S category
    FD: I have said many times that most should avoid ALT funds and explained why. You must hold for years to see the benefit just to find out it was wrong.
    4) MikeM: It's just BS to say this fund did well in this time frame but didn't do well in another,
    FD: it's not BS, history proved that 1-2 categories can be at the top for years. Constructing a portfolio with the best funds now and never trading will not guarantee best results in the next 10 years. Markets change. Managers that did great with one style will lag markets that do better with another style.
    One of the best writers in this site is Charles Lynn Bolin because of his ability to change based on current markets.
    5) MikeM: To keep responding with fund suggestions after the fact and thinking you are some guru is irritating.
    FD: of course, we had to get to this claim :-) Just read the above 3 links in item 1).
    6) MikeM: I don't believe that FD can construct a portfolio for a second.
    FD: pretty funny Mike.
  • AlphaCentric LifeSci Healthcare Fund to change name...
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064224006058/alpha-497.htm
    497 1 alpha-497.htm
    AlphaCentric LifeSci Healthcare Fund
    CLASS A: LYFAX CLASS C: LYFCX CLASS I: LYFIX
    (the “Fund”)
    October 7, 2024
    This information supplements certain information contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2024.
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    Effective on or about November 1, 2024, the Fund’s name will change to “AlphaCentric Life Sciences and Healthcare Fund”.
    * * * * *
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2024, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-844-ACFUNDS (1-844-223-8637) or by writing to 4221 North 203rd Street, Suite 100, Elkhorn, Nebraska 68022.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Physics Nobel Goes to...AI
    "Two pioneers of artificial intelligence – John Hopfield and Geoffrey Hinton – won the Nobel Prize in physics Tuesday for helping create the building blocks of machine learning that is revolutionizing the way we work and live but also creates new threats to humanity, one of the winners said.....Hinton, who is known as the Godfather of artificial intelligence, is a citizen of Canada and Britain who works at the University of Toronto and Hopfield is an American working at Princeton."
    https://apnews.com/article/nobel-prize-physics-fc0567de3f2ca45f81a7359a017cd542
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    The future possibility of any manager beating a relevant benchmark is near impossible to predict. If that can be done at scale with a high hit rate, the poster would not be on this forum! Buffett and Giroux are the exceptions and not the norm. There's a few managers of hedge funds and non-public funds who have long term beaten the SP500 but these too are exceptions.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @WABAC: even OSTIX was down a penny. On the back of SMCI (+15.79%), DGIFX and NAEIX rose today. Comeuppance sure to follow soon.
  • MRFOX

    BaluBalu said:
    MRFOX down today 1.41% which is unusual.
    Take a peek at the top 10 holdings. ROST down -3.75%, ACGL -6.16%, DPZ -3.6%, TJX -2.23%.
    MRFOX is heavy on retail - consumer cyclicals. Retail had a bad day.
  • Cross Shore Discovery Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1609706/000158064224006057/crossshore-497.htm
    497 1 crossshore-497.htm
    CROSS SHORE DISCOVERY FUND
    Institutional Shares
    Supplement dated October 7, 2024
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated July 29, 2024
    The Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interest of shareholders to liquidate the Cross Shore Discovery Fund (the “Fund”).
    As of the date of this supplement, the Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares and it will close effective December 31, 2024 (the “Closing Date”). Distributions to shareholders will be made within seven business days following the calculation of the December 31, 2024 net asset value of the Fund, which is expected to occur on or about January 29, 2024.
    Effective immediately, the Fund is no longer pursuing its investment objective. All holdings in the Fund’s portfolio are being liquidated, and the proceeds will be invested in money market instruments or held in cash.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
    *****
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund name change and sub-advisor change
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064224006059/alphstrategic-497.htm
    497 1 alphstrategic-497.htm
    AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund
    Class A: SiiaX Class C: SiicX Class I: SiiiX
    (the “Fund”)
    October 7, 2024
    This information supplements certain information contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2024.
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    Effective on or about November 1, 2024, the Fund’s name will change to “AlphaCentric Real Income Fund”.
    Effective on or before November 5, 2024, AlphaCentric Advisors LLC intends to retain CrossingBridge Advisors, LLC (“CrossingBridge”) as the new investment sub-advisor to the Fund, subject to approval by the Board of Trustees of the Fund. CrossingBridge is a boutique investment firm specializing in corporate credit, with an emphasis on high yield debt and opportunistic credit. CrossingBridge manages over $3.2B in assets across nine funds and includes a management team of nine investment professionals with an average of 20+ years of investment experience. The Fund’s investment strategy and focus on real estate related securities will remain intact. Additional information regarding the sub-advisory services provided to the Fund will be made available on or before November 5, 2024.
    Effective on or before November 5, 2024, Goshen Rock Capital, LLC will no longer serve as the investment sub-adviser of the Fund.
    * * * * *
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2024, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-844-ACFUNDS (1-844-223-8637) or by writing to 4221 North 203rd Street, Suite 100, Elkhorn, Nebraska 68022.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    I see a lot of chatter in this page and it seems a lot of it is surrounding FD. Without me having to digest all of it,
    1) what does FD say about the prospects going forward for QQMNX or the L/S category (the, QQMNX category)?
    2) Does he say it is a good category to be in, irrespective of specific fund's prowess?
    3) If yes, does he think QQMNX is a good fund to be in that category?
    4) If yes to 2 or 3, are his hoped for prospects for a trade or for B&H investing over 1, 3, or 5 yrs?
    I only need 1 or 2 word answers for the above. Pl note that I am only interested in prospects (future). I do not need any reasoning, because I trust anyone posting here is intellectually honest to the best of their abilities. I am perfectly OK if someone's crystal ball gives them a wrong answer.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    “I also posted … why high-rated funds were terrible in the last 10 years “
    @FD / Wouldn’t it help people more if you posted what different investments will do in the next 1, 5, 10 years rather than what they did in the past?
    You seem to be inventing your own definition of “trader” vs “investor.” I’m not sure if there exists a rigid definition of “trader.” You are entitled to your own like anyone else. For day trading the SEC does have a definition. But it’s several times weekly, not yearly.
    Here’s a legal definition of frequent trading
    Here’s some SEC definitions of day trading
    Of course, various mutual fund providers also have definitions for frequent trader. These can vary from one provider to the next.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    @MikeM, I did understand you pretty well. Racqueteer's answer was excellent, explaining it further. There are so many styles between traders to B&H for ever.
    You could have constructed a very nice portfolio in 2010 just to find out that your decent VALUE or EM funds have lagged SPY/VOO by a big margin.
    On the other hand, the same funds above lost money for 10 years.
    I also posted how PIMIX did great and then ICMUX did much better + why high-rated funds were terrible in the last 10 years.
    The above examples are not monthly or even yearly trades, these are at least 3 years in the same fund. It shows it would be difficult to construct a portfolio that works well in all markets.
    So, when someone says she is not a trader on these boards, it's hard for me to believe it.
    Did you trade 2-3 times per year? You are a trader.
    Did you trade only 30% of your portfolio? You are still a trader.
    There are not many posters who bought 10 funds 5 years ago and created their "perfect" portfolio and haven't done 3-5 and more changes.
    Most of the ones who owns their funds for years are indexers and or Bogleheads.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    The SP500+QQQ has been great since 2010. From 2000 to 2010, the SP500 lost about 10% and QQQ lost almost half.
    FAIRX was a great fund during 2000-10 but has been far behind since 2010.
    ICMUX made more than PIMIX for 3 years (chart)
    But PIMIX made more from 2015 to 2020 (chart) and PIMIX management is pretty good.
    Based on my history of following many funds, I hardly ever found a fund that stays at the top every 2-3 years. Maybe PRWCX is the exception.
    @FD1000, you totally didn't understand or ignored what I said. My opinion is that, for most investors (not traders), it's the portfolio construction that matters more so than individual funds. Of course no fund stays in the top tier of category year in and year out. But there are plenty of funds that stay consistently good over time and fill that portfolio segment, like ICMUX.
    Your comparative selection of funds above is all in hindsight and therefore irrelevant to portfolio construction IMHO.