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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Schwab move...Let's retire this thread. Lots of interactions. Food for thought. THNX.

    How to search for funds
    p.s. I don't have a Schwab account
    Several brokerages, including Schwab, have made it harder (or impossible) to use their tools without an account. As @Low_Tech observed, "Schwab re-arranged their whole fund/ETF research section in late '22"
    The YouTube video referenced above says "To find these funds, I'll point to Research, then under Research Tools, select ETFs." You'll find the screen shot at the 0:40 mark in the video. The problem is that this isn't the screen that one sees without logging in. There is no "Research" drop down from the home page, or AFAIK any Schwab page one can navigate to without logging in. This is indeed a change from a year ago.
    At least one can still access the Schwab screener(s) without logging in:
    Schwab fund screener
    Schwab ETF screener
    From these pages you can also search for individual funds
    E*Trade does enable visitors to navigate to its fund screener:
    E*Trade fund screener
    There's a different page to research specific funds:
    E*Trade fund search box
    Vanguard third party fund list by family
    One can research a specific fund from the home page search box without logging in.
    I haven't found a fund screener at Vanguard (for non-VG funds) even after logging in.
    As Yogi observed, Fidelity lets you search for tickers from its home page search box. One can also navigate to its fund screener:
    Fidelity fund screener
    (use '>" at upper left to expand search critera and select "Include ETFs" for integrated fund/ETF search)
    T. Rowe Price, Merrill Edge, Firstrade, and TIAA all seem to require brokerage account logins (TRP fund login doesn't suffice) to search for and/or research funds.
  • "your account has been suspended" ... or not
    It just happened again Sunday, 25 February about 12:40pm (CST) when I tried to post comment on a thread.
  • Schwab move...Let's retire this thread. Lots of interactions. Food for thought. THNX.
    Schwab Full Platform Tutorial
    How to check your positions
    How to search for funds
    Charles Schwab Trading Platform Web Tutorial
    Want more? Try googling "how to find things on the Schwab brokerage website"
    p.s. I don't have a Schwab account.
    EDIT: so I don't know if any of the above links/video/etc. work or not. You're on your own from here
  • Worthy AI Article
    On Motley Fool and Palantir see also
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/24/will-hot-ticker-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2035/
    At the end of their discussion, MF said:
    The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Palantir Technologies wasn’t one of them.
  • Natural gas $1.63
    @Edmond
    At least one answer to that question is many of the chemical companies. Depending on their output, natural gas represents THE major input cost to create many of the chemicals which these companies produce/sell. Lower input costs mean fatter profit margins. The chemical industry is very cyclical/volatile. Probably the 'safe choice' here would be Dow Chemical which presently has divd yield just below5%. Value Line assesses Dow's financial strength as "A:".
    I have no opinion, nor any direct holding in any chemical company at the present time.
    FSCHX might be a consideration, though Dow is not part of its top 10 holdings.
  • Worthy AI Article
    Disclaimer: I am NOT promoting AI investing or any of these specific ETFs or stock. Just providing information for discussion while personally trying to identify AI opportunities.
    =========================
    Here are two pretty comprehensive Investopedia pages:
    Generative AI
    https://www.investopedia.com/generative-ai-7497939#toc-the-bottom-line
    How To Invest in AI
    https://www.investopedia.com/how-to-invest-in-ai-7504987
    Excerpt (Bold added):
    Best AI ETFs
    iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT): XT is a large capitalization fund that selects global stocks trying to disrupt their industries. The disruption also includes AI technology stocks, which make up nearly half of the fund. The other half of the fund invests in healthcare and industrial stocks, which are also actively looking at how AI might make an outsized difference in their more mature industries. This fund has an expense ratio of 0.46% and an annual dividend yield of 0.70%.
    Defiance Machine Learning & Quantum Computing ETF (QTUM): QTUM has only $112 million under management. The fund invests in companies looking to commercialize their research and development in quantum computing systems. Its benchmark is the BlueStar Quantum Computing and Machine Learning Index. This fund has an expense ratio of 0.40% and an annual dividend yield of 0.45%.
    ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF (ROBO): ROBO invests in companies focused on robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence and invests in both growth and value stocks. The fund’s expense ratio is 0.95%, and it has an annual dividend yield of 0.17%.

    ========================
    And also here's a Motley Fool article that looks at
    Excerpt (Bold added):
    Best AI ETFs to buy in 2024
    Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:BOTZ)
    ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (NYSEMKT:ROBO)
    iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF (NYSEMKT:IRBO)
    First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:ROBT)

    https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/information-technology/ai-stocks/ai-etfs/
    ------------------------
    MF has also identified PLTR as
    A Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Stock to Buy Now and Hold Forever

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/23/a-once-in-a-generation-investment-opportunity-1-ar/
    I am clearly NOT a T/A guy, BUT I do mess around with them. PLTR's chart is an interesting one, with a parabolic rise at the beginning of Feb, which has partially been worked off since. May have just identified a candidate to consider for a play. That said, analysts are broadly DOWN on this pup!
  • Berkshire Annual Letter on utilities
    SF Chronicle: Pacific Gas and Electric Co. residential electricity rates rose by another 20% on Jan. 1. The rate increase added about $34.50 to monthly bills for typical households. That’s about $414 more per household for all of 2024 compared to last year.
    @Crash- I think that puts us as #! again. Yay!! We're #1 !!
    Of course we can always make Berkshire happy by a few more increases like that. I'm sure that they can use some extra cash to add to their pile that's already so big that they don't quite know what to do with it.
  • Question for Girouxheads out there
    I would say “don’t fight the market” and just invest in an S&P 500 ETF, first off….but yes I know the hesitancy of 20-30% being in 5-6 names. But it’s hard to beat the 500 for most funds. And you own more of what’s performing well (due to market cap weighting).
    Alternatives would be the quality ETFs like QLTY, JQUA, QUAL. They all own the big stocks, but diff weightings than SPY. Or, a new one I’ve found and am starting to build a position in: SPGP. It’s a GARP S&P 500 fund (Growth At Reasonable Price). Its highest weighting is in energy, then tech.
  • Worthy AI Article
    This link is directed to Nvidia from last August. I can't find a recent video from Bloomberg providing similar current information regarding cost and sell pricing. Yowee !!!
    Let this snippet sink in:
    Nvidia is raking in nearly 1,000% (about 823%) in profit percentage for each H100 GPU accelerator it sells, according to estimates made in a recent social media post from Barron's senior writer Tae Kim. In dollar terms, that means that Nvidia's street-price of around $25,000 to $30,000 for each of these High Performance Computing (HPC) accelerators (for the least-expensive PCIe version) more than covers the estimated $3,320 cost per chip and peripheral (in-board) components. As surfers will tell you, there's nothing quite like riding a wave with zero other boards on sight.
    Kim cites the $3,320 estimated cost for each H100 chip as coming from financial consulting firm Raymond James. It's unclear how deep that cost analysis goes, however: if it's a matter of pure manufacturing cost (averaging the price-per-wafer and other components while taking yields into account), then there's still a significant expense margin for Nvidia to cover with each of its sales.
  • The week that was, global etf's, various categories + heat map. Week ending May 17, 2024.
    The graphic is set for the 5 days ending February 23, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
    ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire.
    *** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
    --- EWW = -1.14% / -1.95% (I Shares, Mexico)
    MMKT note: Fidelity mmkt's yields remained nominally steady this week, with core acct's yields at 4.96% (SPAXX) and 4.96% (FDRXX).
    NOTE: Growth equity generally had positive pricing, being the tech. area; as well as Blue Chip, quality/non-tech. Most U.S. bonds (funds) found daily flip flops in yields throughout this week, with results for the week in positive pricing performance.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Roy
    Great points on placement of types of investments. FWIW, we are still 97% IRAs so virtually all of our trades/exchanges are in them. And having a Cap on Sector or Explore holdings has definitely worked for us.
    Thanks for the kind words! So far so good with our re-entry into trading some indv stocks. This new strategy has surely worked - so far.
    We'll stick to what's worked - so far:
    major blue chips only, pretty much Mag 7 and a few others,
    fundamentals and T/A will be looked at but
    the key driver will be investor psychology, mainly unwarranted price punishment,
    each time it will be an option play of ST trade of LT hold depending on circumstances,
    and we likely won't know what the next one will be or
    when it's going to strike, but probably around earnings time mostly.
    GOOGL popped out of nowhere, while NVDA was being studied for a coupla weeks.
    On NVDA revenue:
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nvidia-to-top-meta-record-with-nearly-us-250b-value-jump-1.2037901#:~:text=Companies such as Amazon.com,in hardware for AI computing.
    Here's an overall % for the BIG customers. I have not read what you have about the 19% customer. But if the following is correct, my WAG is that 19% to one then seems a bit high, but it's possible the other 3 only make up 21%.
    Excerpt BOLD added)
    Companies such as Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google are Nvidia’s largest customers, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of its revenue , as they rush to invest in hardware for AI computing.
  • Natural gas $1.63
    Ted Oakley of Oxbow was recently interviewed, and when asked to address the energy sector, he cited EPD and Williams among his choices. I gathered these were not recent purchases of his, but long-held positions).
    there are several gas-heavy producers. I guess it depends on what exactly you wish to bet on: do you want to be that NG will increase in price -- which would tend to favor most gassy producers, to the extent they do not engage in significant hedging activities. I've tended to avoid gas-heavy producers. Instead, I tend to favor mixed- or oil-heavy producers. I've always viewed EOG as a best-in-class producer, though at the moment, my only energy exposure is XOM and CVX. If you are agnostic on individual companies just consider XOP or XLE.
    OTOH, if you want to bet that NG stays low, ask yourself: "who benefits from low NG prices?". At least one answer to that question is many of the chemical companies. Depending on their output, natural gas represents THE major input cost to create many of the chemicals which these companies produce/sell. Lower input costs mean fatter profit margins. The chemical industry is very cyclical/volatile. Probably the 'safe choice' here would be Dow Chemical which presently has divd yield just below5%. Value Line assesses Dow's financial strength as "A:".
    I have no opinion, nor any direct holding in any chemical company at the present time.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @stillers
    Those of us who are regular investors have often heard investment professionals state that market volatility presents investment opportunities, and over the course of the past couple weeks you are a perfect example of this, being able to take advantage of market/specific stock volatility....good for you!
    I don't have the intestinal fortitude to take those risks, thus my upside may be more limited but also my potential downside.
    In the past we have owned a very small piece of PRSCX, and only briefly. The adventuresome part of our portfolio currently is Mastercard which we've built slowly over the past 3+ years to 2.5% of assets and since the inception of TCAF, that is also at 2.5%. If those positions beat the market, great. But, that is not necessarily the goal - mainly to add a little measured spice to our overwhelming position in TRAIX/PRWCX.
    Not sure if it has been mentioned on MFO threads, but I read recently in the WSJ that one unnamed NVDA customer accounted for 19% of their previous years sales...could it be META?
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 2/24/24
    This ad-hoc feature returns this week. LINK BarronsLINK
    FUNDS. Use active funds to exploit the fire sale in HEALTHCARE stocks. MANY biotech stocks were selling below their cash on the balance sheets in 10/2023 and there has been a good rebound since with XBI +40% (still well below 2/2021 peak). Mentioned are BHCFX (37% SC/MC), JAGLX, PHSTX (value), PRHSX (all-caps with some risky bets), VGHCX (giant/biggest, so LC orientation). (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    ECONOMY. EVERYONE knows that BOGLE/ Vanguard started the first SP500 mutual fund. But who started the first US total market index? That was Wilshire 5000 (W5000) in 1974 by Dennis TITO/ Wilshire Associates (names after a CA blvd) and now several firms/indexers offer total stock market indexes. While a catchy “5000” has always been in the name, W5000 had 7,378 stocks in 1998, and only 3,392 in 01/2024. The number of US stocks has shrunk from M&A, LBOs, bankruptcies, and the new listings haven’t been enough. W5000 has gone through several hands and prefixes – FT-, DJ-, back to None-, and now again FT- (so, FT W5000). Vanguard was probably the 1st to offer a total stock market FUND in 1992 under a license from Wilshire Associates, but Vanguard has changed the underlying index several times – to MSCI, and now CRSP. Wilshire Associates also started the mutual fund WFIVX / WINDX in 02/1999 (current AUM $253.4 million only). Dennis Tito, 84, sold Wilshire Associates in 2021 to two private-equity firms (CEO a former FTSE executive Mark MAKEPEACE) and they spun off Wilshire Indexes to a group that includes themselves, Mark Makepeace, FT, Singapore Exchange. And obviously, Wilshire indexes have gone global. (By Allan SLOAN, an award-winning independent journalist)
    Q&A/Interview. Suni HARFORD, President of Asset Management, UBS. She thrives on business challenges and financial crises. She thinks that the US stocks below the highflying mega-caps are fine. Russia-Ukraine war has been a huge setback for Europe. Asia has been dragged down by China that can turn on a dime, but Japan has been rallying. Many countries will have elections in 2024, so that should be a support for economies. Allocation 60-40 is making sense again, but she recommends carving out 20% for alternatives – real estate, private-equity, private-credit, etc. Interest rates are normalizing and aren’t high by historical standards. Customized direct indexing for separately managed accounts (SMAs) is in favor and is a big and growing business for UBS. The ESG is less popular in the US as there is lot of anti-ESG misinformation; even Texas has 30% from renewable energy now. But ESG is growing in Europe and Asia with new twists – nature-based solutions, blended investment-finance combo projects, etc. Women have come a long way in business and finance, but more are needed. This industry offers more flexible schedules but requires hard work and has good rewards. Her husband retired 12 years ago, and her UBS stint in 2017 was to be a short post-retirement job, but she may finally leave after the Credit Suisse integration.
    RETIREMENT. Target-Date Funds (TDFs) were thought to be set-and-forget funds, but their short history has revealed some problems. The TDFs have adjusted by offering variations within each TDF 20XX as some wanted slightly more or less equity. So, instead of glide-path, we have glide-band. Many TDFs are passive, but several are active or with active-passive mix; some include both mutual funds and ETFs. Their bond sleeves have been stodgy, often with too much of TIPS, but some are now including HY, EMs, FR/BL, etc. (TDFs benefitted hugely from the laws that allow them to be the default options for 401k/403b/457 plan auto-signups and auto-escalations)
  • Worthy AI Article
    Of the ETF's on the Marketwatch list, three are one of my odder watch lists: WTAI and IRBO were both in the red this week. Both are barely showing a pulse YTD. The water ETF's I have on my list have easily out-performed them. EVX and GRID out-performed them.
    BOTZ did ok this week, but it's no SMH.
    Of the funds on my watch list that might be included in AI, only TINY and IQM are within site of SMH YTD. IQM looks like a dog's breakfast to me. BOTZ is ahead of the 500 YTD, but looking up at IQM.
    I can't remember why FSELX is not on that watch list. I do have it on another more generic sector watch list. And I can see that I went for FSCSX for the relatively low SD and Beta for the tech category. I did add SMH to the taxable. But I'm trying to trim things down in the IRA, so no chip plays for me there.
  • Quantum+ computing, what AI has been waiting for; although not new to the tech world
    I for one appreciate your "rambling" as it spurs talk about this topic.
    On the history part, per this source, the phrase "AI" was actually coined in 1956.
    https://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/what-is-artificial-intelligence.html#:~:text=Artificial intelligence (AI)%20makes%20it,learning%20and%20natural%20language%20processing.
    The buzz these days is referenced as AI, but is really more specifically about Generative AI as seen below.
    Excerpt (BOLD added):
    Artificial Intelligence History
    The term artificial intelligence was coined in 1956, but AI has become more popular today thanks to increased data volumes, advanced algorithms, and improvements in computing power and storage.
    Early AI research in the 1950s explored topics like problem solving and symbolic methods. In the 1960s, the US Department of Defense took interest in this type of work and began training computers to mimic basic human reasoning. For example, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) completed street mapping projects in the 1970s. And DARPA produced intelligent personal assistants in 2003, long before Siri, Alexa or Cortana were household names.
    This early work paved the way for the automation and formal reasoning that we see in computers today, including decision support systems and smart search systems that can be designed to complement and augment human abilities.
    While Hollywood movies and science fiction novels depict AI as human-like robots that take over the world, the current evolution of AI technologies isn’t that scary – or quite that smart. Instead, AI has evolved to provide many specific benefits in every industry. Keep reading for modern examples of artificial intelligence in health care, retail and more.
    1950s–1970s
    Neural Networks

    Early work with neural networks stirs excitement for “thinking machines.”
    1980s–2010s
    Machine Learning

    Machine learning becomes popular.
    2011–2020s
    Deep Learning

    Deep learning breakthroughs drive AI boom.
    Present Day
    Generative AI

    Generative AI, a disruptive tech, soars in popularity.

    See also
    https://www.celonis.com/blog/who-are-the-leaders-in-the-generative-ai-industry/#:~:text=Nvidia: Describing itself as “the,for a variety of applications.
    Excerpt (BOLD added):
    Nvidia: Describing itself as “the world’s most advanced platform for generative AI”, Nvidia combines accelerated computing, AI software, pre-trained models and AI foundries to enable users to build, customize, and deploy generative AI models for a variety of applications. Nvidia’s own models include StyleGAN, GauGAN and eDiff-I.
  • Worthy AI Article
    @WABAC:
    Great comments about "stuff" and NVDA's stuff is clearly different and dominant at this point.
    AMD is the other company that I note is being widely identified as the one company that may be the first to truly challenge NVDA's top spot. So we are watching AMD as a possible trade or LT holding.
    Here's one of the most recent articles I've read on all that:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-is-the-magnificent-1-now-but-these-rivals-are-closing-in-3a382a8b?mod=home-page
    Excerpt:
    The competition isn’t singular either. While Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, -2.94% CEO Lisa Su has launched the most direct competition to Nvidia’s high-performance GPUs — citing a forecast of around $4 billion for the AMD’s new MI300 GPU — the competition is coming from an array of places that include a number of Nvidia’s largest and most important customers.
    See also:
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/magnificent-seven-stock-poised-most-091400084.html
    Excerpt:
    Nvidia's success is also attracting competition. Advanced Micro Devices, for example, argues that its newest AI chips are as good as Nvidia's. "Magnificent Seven" members Meta and Microsoft are two large customers that plan to use AMD's chips to reduce their reliance on Nvidia. Several of Nvidia's big customers are developing their own AI chips as well.
    =====================================
    And thanks for the "dinky linky" comparing FSCSX to FSELX, two funds we know very well.
    Both funds incepted on 07/29/85.
    FWIW, we were enamored with both since their inceptions but at that time somewhat favored FSCSX. But unable to pick one at that time that we thought would be the best LT, we decided to venture into both as Core positions at about 5% each.
    That was pretty much my MO for many years - if I couldn't decide between two options, BUY both. That resulted in us owning about 2x (and more) as many funds as we now own! That all began to change for us about a decade or so ago when we started to whittle down our funds to the current baker's dozen.
    FSELX began to outpace FSCSX about 10 years ago. We decided to consolidate those two positions, and don't ask me exactly how!, chose FSELX for a 10% Core holding at about that time. In retrospect, truly one of my "blind squirrel" getting lucky moments!
    If you adjust your chart for the past 10 and/or 5 years, you will see vastly different TR performance. That said, I was kicking and screaming as we dropped FSCSX, but our methodology/strategy had changed and we parted ways with it and several other old, LT favorite OEFs.
    So, for better or worse between the two funds, we chose to ride with FSELX and are continuing that MO currently. When FSELX rises above 10%, we shave it and spread its gains to broader based tech holdings. On the flip side, after it suffers one of its inevitable BIG DROPS, we routinely ADD to it to bring it back to ~10%. The former has been happening a bunch more than the latter over those years!
    While the other AI options noted in the OP article are intriguing to us, we just can't muster enough drive to ADD any of them. Really hoping for some more comments/analysis on them to get a better feel for which, if any, are worth venturing into. If/after you examine their holdings, please share your thoughts on them here! TIA!
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    Hi @stillers Have at it with tech. related. I'm with you in this area of investing. We have remained U.S. centered with our investments for many years and have whatever foreign pieces make a good fit in the tech. area; as with BOTZ (robotics), IHI and FSMEX both being (medical tech), genomics, FTEC (Fidelity tech.), FHLC (Fidelity Health ETF) and the broad based growth of FBCG (Fidelity blue chip companies). We've not been inclined towards value, small cap, international or EM. We held junk bond funds for a period near the bottom of the market melt in 2008 and for several months afterward, and have held IG bond funds and still do; as well as money market now at about 5% yield. We're about 40% equity. Although we've done dollar cost averaging now into funds; not unlike our early days with IRA's and 401k's. Good enough for now, at this house.
    FBCG Top holdings
    Top 10 holdings AS OF Dec-31-2023
    59.72%
    of 159 total

    MSFT Microsoft Corp 10.15%
    NVDA NVIDIA Corp 9.81%
    AAPL Apple Inc 9.63%
    AMZN Amazon.com Inc 9.10%
    GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A 6.64%
    META Meta Platforms Inc Class A 4.99%
    UBER Uber Technologies Inc 2.62%
    LLY Eli Lilly and Co 2.34%
    NFLX Netflix Inc 2.22%
    SNAP Snap Inc Class A 2.21%
  • "your account has been suspended" ... or not
    Dear friends,
    If you tried accessing MFO at mid-afternoon on Friday, 23 February, you would have encounter an "account suspended" note. I discovered this thanks to the quick action of three or four board members who reached out by email and phone. (Thanks, guys!)
    The short version: your account was not suspended, MFO's was. We're at the start of a big upgrade / update to our server and software. Our software is grievously out-of-date (if you call about it, the folks on the phone seem confused and say things like, "well, maybe Old Bill would be able to help. He's been here forever but he's only coming in three days a week now") and our server does rely on a hand crank to get it started in the morning. (Me, likewise.)
    We've put off the upgrades because they're expensive and risk crashing the site. Having found a reliable programmer, we decided that we couldn't wait any longer and authorized our site host to create a second server and to move a copy of the entire content of MFO onto it. The idea is that our programmer can then work on that second, offline version of the site until he's worked out all of the bugs in the software. He and Chip then flip a switch labeled "redirect traffic" and there's near-seamless transition to a safer, more stable home.
    Our host promised that creating the duplicate version of the site on the second server would have absolutely no impact on the "live" site. You wouldn't even know we were doing it.
    Sadly, one piece of software - MySQL 5, I believe - is old enough that just attempting to move a copy of it set off an alarm. Crashed MFO. And triggered the "account suspended."
    Apologies for that. We had a nice conversation with them about what "no impact on the live site" means. We will try to offer clear and timely notice if and when the upgrade requires going offline. In the past, that has been early on a Saturday or Sunday morning after about seven days' notice.
    As ever, David