Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS I figured I'd follow-up at the end of today, after a jump upward of +7.7% in TS shares. There is a still rather brand new-ish Morningstar analysis of the company, dated just more than a week ago. Yes, M* is less and less useful, but some might find this item helpful, I figure:
Tenaris is the largest provider of oil country tubular goods, the steel tubing used to construct oil and gas wells. It controls nearly half the global OCTG market, providing premium and nonpremium solutions for offshore and onshore applications.
The firm manages low-cost, high-quality manufacturing operations on nearly every continent, enabling it to reap the benefits of a globalized supply chain while maintaining a localized presence. It continues pursuing capacity expansions in North America and the Middle East.
Tenaris aims to optimize its supply chain through the expansion of Rig Direct, a just-in-time inventory-management program that maximizes production efficiency through improved demand planning. Tenaris can manage the entirety of well operators’ tubular supply chains, from steel procurement to well installation.
Rig Direct helps Tenaris maintain customer relationships through collaborative product development and, to a broader extent, customers’ production plans moving forward. Better demand visibility leads to a more agile supply chain, as Tenaris can more easily optimize its inventory on hand, reducing raw material costs and storage costs. As of November 2023, 85% of Tenaris' North American customers use Rig Direct in some capacity.
The OCTG industry at large remains oversupplied and highly competitive. Generalist steel manufacturers now produce nonpremium OCTG products, since these don’t require specialization. The premium market, where Tenaris maintains substantial share, focuses on more-complex projects, such as offshore deep-water production. Premium products require more specialized manufacturing processes that, while not impossible to replicate, would require substantial investment by a new competitor to enter.
Brand reputation and customer trust are factors too, as complex projects typically involve a higher cost of failure. However, the premium space has seen new entrants over time, and we expect heightened competition in this once-concentrated market will persist, especially as revitalized offshore investment pushes the industry toward a multiyear upcycle.
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Bolin's Investment Picks For Retirees In 2024 a number of other parameters ...
... phase of the moon, which sign you were born under, etc.
Ain't AI great?
Yes, it sure sounds "canned." Like talking on the phone with Customer Service. Words which convey no information. I once was on a call. Finally got to a Superv. After 2
5 minutes, he finally said: "That information is proprietary." In other words, they just refuse to tell me that stuff. And the WONDERFUL agent could not tell me that, 3
5 minutes ago????? Of course she couldn't, because she knows feces about nothing. The only training they give her is to make sure she knows how to talk on the phone, while dodging actual responses. I've come lately to start using this reply: "That's the answer to a different question than the one I asked."
Anyhow, it sucks that you can't get in Try OJ's suggestions, maybe.
Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS "I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!" indeed, and they pop up in unexpected places. They are a top holding in Rajiv Jain's international and EM funds for reasons I've yet to hear an explanation.
I trust the
fund managers I’ve hired to make those buy / sell / hold decisions for me! If there are some “babies” being thrown out with the “bathwater” today those managers are grabbing them up. Wait one year. A little over a year ago the hoopla here was all about
5% cash - greatest thing since sliced bread. A mere 18-months ago folks were were crying in their beer over double-digit
portfolio losses. And 2-3 years ago the noise was all about
I-Bonds!. Give me a break!
Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS I appreciate anyone's reasonable, well thought out views and investing ideas, but I would hope that folks will not assume that other people do not have just as reasonable and well thought out ideas for their own investments, if they do not match your own choices.
A few years ago the general buzz was CDs, bond ladders etc. I don't remember many people telling us to back up the truck for NVDA then, much less posts describing their business model, valuation etc.
I hope that your personal style and choice of investments works for you,
@stillers, but I assume many people here would be very uncomfortable 36% tech and 2
5% Mag 7 ( I know I would)
I sat in MSFT for ten years when it went nowhere. At a P/S ratio of 40 to 60 I believe NVDA will at some point flatten out for a long time, if not crash, just as TSLA and META have done. If you can figure out when this is and get out, good luck! If you are prepared for the consequences of missing that exit, more power to you. Me, I would rather sleep at night!
Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS On the same note, a prominent MFO member recently wrote:
“You have no reason to envy my investments. I have no reason to envy yours. I don’t know how much my brother-in-law’s portfolio made. I don’t care whether I beat the market, I care about whether I have a good life and make a difference in the lives of others. My early modeling said that I needed to earn 6% a year, minimum, to have the resources to do all that. Happily, I’ve gotten there.” (Since most have likely read this, I’ll skip the
attribution. part).
To me, investing has been a
50 year long process based on clearly thought out plans which have been revised over and over again thru those years leading now to a great deal of restraint as I approach the “80” milestone. You don’t have to do it that way. But it’s the route I’ve chosen.
I’m a bit more optimistic than the distinguished author cited above claims to be. I suspect that a 7-8% annual return long-term with reasonable drawdowns (no more than 1
5-20% over 3 year periods) is a doable goal. That would not have been the case 3-
5 years ago however. The difference now is in the much higher rate of interest available on bonds and cash.
At this point I’m thinking
@stillers may have landed on the wrong forum. A generally “slow-mo” conservative lot here with an occasional shorter visit by those in despair needing support on one hand, and those who believe they have struck gold on the other. But, longer term ISTM a conservative lot. May I suggest any of the following where he might feel more at home?
-
Elite Traders-
Stockaholics-
Super Trader Sam-
Traders Labratory-
Investors Hub
Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS All good here, question for
@stillers. My perception is that you were an investor during the dot com era...we all know what happened to the tech companies then...lot of momo, hype etc...maybe not a good comparison agreed. But...we do know what a down -70% flush can do to your wealth
How do you see it now, vs 2
5 years ago?
BTW, props and congrats on being on the right side of these trades so far
Baseball fan
Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS Or it could be the global market leader doing what it does, and has done for a while now, and will very likely continue to do for the foreseeable future.
And NVDA's P/E is virtually unchanged. So there's that, too.
It's far more about AI than just NVDA.
IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!
Disclaimer: We've been participating in NVDA via FSELX (and other funds) for a long time now and just BOT NVDA on Tues-Wed this week. We are at ~36% Tech and ~25% Mag 7, and feeling very comfortable.
I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!
Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS Or it could be the global market leader doing what it does, and has done for a while now, and will very likely continue to do for the foreseeable future.
And NVDA's P/E is virtually unchanged. So there's that, too.
It's far more about AI than just NVDA.
IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!
Disclaimer: We've been participating in NVDA via FSELX (and other funds) for a long time now and just BOT NVDA on Tues-Wed this week. We are at ~36% Tech and ~25% Mag 7, and feeling very comfortable.
AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/21/24 AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/21/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (44.3%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.2%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (29.
5%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +18.1% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (104+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (19+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were mixed (growth down, cyclicals up), bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Techs remain strong (NVDA). AMZN replacing WBA in DJIA. Nikkei22
5 at new high after 34 years! #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1362/thread
Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
Nikkei 225 at New High I remember looking at the Nikkei circa 2010, and noting it had (about) halved from late 1989 to 2000, then (about) halved again by 2010, and thinking of that lost generation of investors there. They had certainly earned all of the funds that ended in "...ex Japan."
Meanwhile, the S&P went from 353 in 9/1989 to 1,326 in 12/2010, and then UP to 4,982 as of yesterday. Slightly different rides!