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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    @Graust, remind me, where do I send the check?
    All kidding aside, it's great to see that somebody gets it and took the time to (at least attempt to - we'll see) clarify! Yep, definitely NO intended bragging, WAY more about the somewhat unique strategy (for us at least) that worked!
    For additional clarity...
    We are in our 3rd, 5-yr Retirement Model Portfolio, so our strategy and holdings have changed significantly over our 12 years of retirement, mainly at the 5-yr intervals. (I've posted that a few times but some posters are still stuck on our first one!)
    To wit, our (referenced) 5-yr, 5+% APY CD ladder is currently acting as two things:
    (1) self-funded LT care bucket and
    (2) ballast for our current, moderately(?) aggressive 85/15, stock/bond market portfolio. No dedicated bond funds for us at this point - bonds are only currently being held via PRWCX and FBALX.
    I look forward to your post on the Mag 7 thread and intend to get back to it after the NVDA trade dust settles.
    Hey, and thanks man!
    EDIT: And if it means anything to anybody, on the Fido board (different handle, same photo!) I am relatively high in the all-important "Kudos Received' rankings and have received more Badges there than I know what to do with! I also stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, but sadly only once!
  • frozen markets, range-bound
    The only time I regularly watched Wall Street Week was the six months, or so, I was tending bar next to a fifty dollar a month residence hotel in downtown Waterloo, Iowa. Beers were 35 cents, and shots were 90 cents.
    PBS was the only thing I allowed on the tube. This must have been about 1976. I vaguely remember the elves, and a beetle-browed gent from Lazard Freres I thought made some sense at the time.
  • frozen markets, range-bound
    All I see is a beautiful uptrend SP500 in the last 4 months + performance of 20+% + low volatility where the index didn't lose more than 2.5% from any last top = excellent risk/reward.
    See the chart https://schrts.co/hTeZtxIG
    On Nov 1st I posted..."You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ."
    So, you can work a lot harder and do much less, such as diversification, invest in lagging categories (value, SC, international, gold, utilities) since 2010.
    Of course, at one point it will change but I have heard and read about it for at least 5-8 years.
    Bonds: for several weeks already I posted that for 2024, you can use RPHIX="sub" cash and make about 6%, the next 2 CBLDX, RSIIX can make 7-9%. I'm a trader but I haven't done anything for weeks = smooth charts = 99+% invested.
  • frozen markets, range-bound
    "I loved that show, but don’t remember that particular one incident. There was one rotating female guest he had on who was, well, hot. Don’t remember her name or what she looks like now."
    I loved that show too, watched it every week. I'm thinking it was Liz Ann Sonders. IMHO
    Liz Ann is certainly not hard to look at, but I'm thinking it was a brunette. Not sure, the show's been off over 20 years I think, so memory is not so good.
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    Not sure I understand the ruckus over @Stillers posting above. These boards are all about discussing each of our own investing strategies and I have learned a great deal from each of you. Whether you invest in Mag 7 directly or through funds, one cannot deny that these stocks are critical to the movement of the US market making up nearly 30% of the S&P 500. I value the opportunity to learn how each of you are approaching your strategies on these stocks as well as funds that are heavily invested in them. This makes me a better investor. Going back over the past couple of years, Stillers has made some pretty savvy calls on funds that are tech heavy like FSELX. As I recall he invested in this fund at the end of 2022 when I frankly didn’t have the balls to do so. At any rate I appreciate his contributions.
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    I don't trust fund managers that goose their funds with stocks that are unrelated to the category, or the thesis. What's the point of owning an "EM fund" if the returns are driven by stocks from North America and Europe?
    You say you don't care. OK by me.
    What does that have to do with 5% cash, I-Bonds, or losses?
    If you need a break, take one.
    I have little understanding of what you are talking about here @WABC. If you don’t trust the fund managers you’ve hired there are a great many other choices out there. Depends on age, risk tolerance, needs etc.
    I was trying to put the current rage over NVDA and AI into some sort of perspective. I said: “Wait a year” (before passing judgement on other points of view). Than we can look back and see who was stupid and who was smart. If a year is too long a time horizon here for some I’m truly sorry. I like to wager $5 on an NBA game just for fun. But I’m not about to wager a life’s savings - or even a substantial part of it - on the latest greatest investment fad. People will do what they will do. And you are correct that it’s none of my damn business.
  • Bernzott U.S. Small Cap Value Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834424003425/fp0087296-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0087296-1_497.htm
    Bernzott U.S. Small Cap Value Fund
    (Ticker Symbol: BSCVX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated February 22, 2024 to the currently effective
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Bernzott U.S. Small Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately the Fund is closed to all new investment.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about March 28, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. Redemptions made on or after the date of this Supplement will not be subject to any redemption fee that would otherwise be applicable. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. Any liquidation proceeds paid to a shareholder should generally be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss depending on the shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders (including but not limited to shareholders holding shares through tax-deferred accounts) should contact their tax advisers to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Under certain circumstances, liquidation proceeds may be subject to withholding taxes.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, Bernzott Capital Advisors, the Fund’s advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-877-998-9880 if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    "I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!" indeed, and they pop up in unexpected places. They are a top holding in Rajiv Jain's international and EM funds for reasons I've yet to hear an explanation.

    I trust the
    fund managers I’ve hired to make those buy / sell / hold decisions for me! If there are some “babies” being thrown out with the “bathwater” today those managers are grabbing them up. Wait one year. A little over a year ago the hoopla here was all about 5% cash - greatest thing since sliced bread. A mere 18-months ago folks were were crying in their beer over double-digit portfolio losses. And 2-3 years ago the noise was all about I-Bonds!. Give me a break!
    I think @PRESSmUP raised an interesting point worth kicking around an investment forum.
    Speaking for myself only, I don't trust fund managers that goose their funds with stocks that are unrelated to the category, or the thesis. What's the point of owning an "EM fund" if the returns are driven by stocks from North America and Europe?
    You say you don't care. OK by me.
    What does that have to do with 5% cash, I-Bonds, or losses?
    If you need a break, take one.
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    I figured I'd follow-up at the end of today, after a jump upward of +7.7% in TS shares. There is a still rather brand new-ish Morningstar analysis of the company, dated just more than a week ago. Yes, M* is less and less useful, but some might find this item helpful, I figure:
    Tenaris is the largest provider of oil country tubular goods, the steel tubing used to construct oil and gas wells. It controls nearly half the global OCTG market, providing premium and nonpremium solutions for offshore and onshore applications.
    The firm manages low-cost, high-quality manufacturing operations on nearly every continent, enabling it to reap the benefits of a globalized supply chain while maintaining a localized presence. It continues pursuing capacity expansions in North America and the Middle East.

    Tenaris aims to optimize its supply chain through the expansion of Rig Direct, a just-in-time inventory-management program that maximizes production efficiency through improved demand planning. Tenaris can manage the entirety of well operators’ tubular supply chains, from steel procurement to well installation.
    Rig Direct helps Tenaris maintain customer relationships through collaborative product development and, to a broader extent, customers’ production plans moving forward. Better demand visibility leads to a more agile supply chain, as Tenaris can more easily optimize its inventory on hand, reducing raw material costs and storage costs. As of November 2023, 85% of Tenaris' North American customers use Rig Direct in some capacity.

    The OCTG industry at large remains oversupplied and highly competitive. Generalist steel manufacturers now produce nonpremium OCTG products, since these don’t require specialization. The premium market, where Tenaris maintains substantial share, focuses on more-complex projects, such as offshore deep-water production. Premium products require more specialized manufacturing processes that, while not impossible to replicate, would require substantial investment by a new competitor to enter.
    Brand reputation and customer trust are factors too, as complex projects typically involve a higher cost of failure. However, the premium space has seen new entrants over time, and we expect heightened competition in this once-concentrated market will persist, especially as revitalized offshore investment pushes the industry toward a multiyear upcycle.

    ---END---
  • Bolin's Investment Picks For Retirees In 2024
    a number of other parameters ...
    ... phase of the moon, which sign you were born under, etc.
    Ain't AI great?
    Yes, it sure sounds "canned." Like talking on the phone with Customer Service. Words which convey no information. I once was on a call. Finally got to a Superv. After 25 minutes, he finally said: "That information is proprietary." In other words, they just refuse to tell me that stuff. And the WONDERFUL agent could not tell me that, 35 minutes ago????? Of course she couldn't, because she knows feces about nothing. The only training they give her is to make sure she knows how to talk on the phone, while dodging actual responses. I've come lately to start using this reply: "That's the answer to a different question than the one I asked."
    Anyhow, it sucks that you can't get in Try OJ's suggestions, maybe.
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    "I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!" indeed, and they pop up in unexpected places. They are a top holding in Rajiv Jain's international and EM funds for reasons I've yet to hear an explanation.
    I trust the fund managers I’ve hired to make those buy / sell / hold decisions for me! If there are some “babies” being thrown out with the “bathwater” today those managers are grabbing them up. Wait one year. A little over a year ago the hoopla here was all about 5% cash - greatest thing since sliced bread. A mere 18-months ago folks were were crying in their beer over double-digit portfolio losses. And 2-3 years ago the noise was all about I-Bonds!. Give me a break!
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    I appreciate anyone's reasonable, well thought out views and investing ideas, but I would hope that folks will not assume that other people do not have just as reasonable and well thought out ideas for their own investments, if they do not match your own choices.
    A few years ago the general buzz was CDs, bond ladders etc. I don't remember many people telling us to back up the truck for NVDA then, much less posts describing their business model, valuation etc.
    I hope that your personal style and choice of investments works for you, @stillers, but I assume many people here would be very uncomfortable 36% tech and 25% Mag 7 ( I know I would)
    I sat in MSFT for ten years when it went nowhere. At a P/S ratio of 40 to 60 I believe NVDA will at some point flatten out for a long time, if not crash, just as TSLA and META have done. If you can figure out when this is and get out, good luck! If you are prepared for the consequences of missing that exit, more power to you. Me, I would rather sleep at night!
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    On the same note, a prominent MFO member recently wrote:
    “You have no reason to envy my investments. I have no reason to envy yours. I don’t know how much my brother-in-law’s portfolio made. I don’t care whether I beat the market, I care about whether I have a good life and make a difference in the lives of others. My early modeling said that I needed to earn 6% a year, minimum, to have the resources to do all that. Happily, I’ve gotten there.” (Since most have likely read this, I’ll skip the attribution. part).
    To me, investing has been a 50 year long process based on clearly thought out plans which have been revised over and over again thru those years leading now to a great deal of restraint as I approach the “80” milestone. You don’t have to do it that way. But it’s the route I’ve chosen.
    I’m a bit more optimistic than the distinguished author cited above claims to be. I suspect that a 7-8% annual return long-term with reasonable drawdowns (no more than 15-20% over 3 year periods) is a doable goal. That would not have been the case 3-5 years ago however. The difference now is in the much higher rate of interest available on bonds and cash.
    At this point I’m thinking @stillers may have landed on the wrong forum. A generally “slow-mo” conservative lot here with an occasional shorter visit by those in despair needing support on one hand, and those who believe they have struck gold on the other. But, longer term ISTM a conservative lot. May I suggest any of the following where he might feel more at home?
    - Elite Traders
    - Stockaholics
    - Super Trader Sam
    - Traders Labratory
    - Investors Hub
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    All good here, question for @stillers. My perception is that you were an investor during the dot com era...we all know what happened to the tech companies then...lot of momo, hype etc...maybe not a good comparison agreed. But...we do know what a down -70% flush can do to your wealth
    How do you see it now, vs 25 years ago?
    BTW, props and congrats on being on the right side of these trades so far
    Baseball fan
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    Or it could be the global market leader doing what it does, and has done for a while now, and will very likely continue to do for the foreseeable future.
    And NVDA's P/E is virtually unchanged. So there's that, too.
    It's far more about AI than just NVDA.
    IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!
    Disclaimer: We've been participating in NVDA via FSELX (and other funds) for a long time now and just BOT NVDA on Tues-Wed this week. We are at ~36% Tech and ~25% Mag 7, and feeling very comfortable.
    I'm happy to let my funds hold MAG-7s in controlled quantities. I don't need more of them!
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    Or it could be the global market leader doing what it does, and has done for a while now, and will very likely continue to do for the foreseeable future.
    And NVDA's P/E is virtually unchanged. So there's that, too.
    It's far more about AI than just NVDA.
    IMO, the negativity for and lack of participation in the Mag 7 on this particular forum is astounding! And telling!
    Disclaimer: We've been participating in NVDA via FSELX (and other funds) for a long time now and just BOT NVDA on Tues-Wed this week. We are at ~36% Tech and ~25% Mag 7, and feeling very comfortable.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/21/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/21/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (44.3%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.2%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (29.5%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +18.1% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (104+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (19+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were mixed (growth down, cyclicals up), bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Techs remain strong (NVDA). AMZN replacing WBA in DJIA. Nikkei225 at new high after 34 years! #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1362/thread
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/ts?mod=searchresults_companyquotes&mod=searchbar&search_keywords=ts&search_statement_type=suggested
    Up 9.6 percent in the overnight. Almost 5;00 a.m. on Thurs. Eastern Time, 22nd Feb, '24. Just released 4Q operating results on Wed.
    BOOM.
  • Nikkei 225 at New High
    I remember looking at the Nikkei circa 2010, and noting it had (about) halved from late 1989 to 2000, then (about) halved again by 2010, and thinking of that lost generation of investors there. They had certainly earned all of the funds that ended in "...ex Japan."
    Meanwhile, the S&P went from 353 in 9/1989 to 1,326 in 12/2010, and then UP to 4,982 as of yesterday. Slightly different rides!