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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    Per John Conner, when I asked about projected yield, he answered it will be based on the securities purchased. Of course it is, but he also said it is generally 1.5-2% over US companies. So I am guessing around 9%+ yield, if using CBLDX and RSIIX as the basis. If using OSTIX then maybe 8%+.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    NRDCX is now available at FIDO.
    $5K min, plus a $49.95 trading fee.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    For the past two months, I have been following two "Market Neutral" funds, QQMNX and VMNFX, which held up very well and provided some protection during recent market downturns. New managers have been at the helm of both funds since 2021.
    As MikeM said: "I have to admit, QQMNX is a tempting alternative in this alternative field for a less bumpy ride and, so far, excellent returns."
    ..............QQMNX....VMNFX
    YTD.........15.6%.......8.9%
    3 YRS.......14.4........14.8
    5 YRS.......10.3..........8.2
    2022..........9.5.........13.5
    Std. Dev....8.6%.......7.3%
    As a retired investor who doesn't need a lot more money, preserving capital is more important to me than seeking sizeable returns on capital. While both funds have excellent risk/reward profiles, I have decided to add QQMNX to my portfolio at this time of fairly high equity valuations.
    A couple other market neutral funds you can consider: BDMAX and JMNAX. BDMAX has outperformed QQMNX over the last 1 and 2 year trailing periods, and has a higher Sharpe ratio and lower standard deviation over the last 3 years according to Morningstar data. JMNAX has had lower returns, but has a smooth ride. I use a combination of BDMAX and JMNAX, but I might consider adding QQMNX. Thanks for bringing it up.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Oct 5th Episode:
    Guest Abby Joseph Cohen - Part 2:
    The tide went out during the pandemic and it exposed where the problems exist globally
    ONE INVESTMENT
    COHEN: THINK OUTSIDE THE U.S.
    Long period of U.S. outperformance
    International markets less expensive
    Offer exposure to different industries
    MSCI EAFE Index: Europe, Australasia & Far East
    Large & mid-cap developed market stocks, excluding the U.S. and Canada


    A related article on Deficits and the stock market:
    deficits are horrible, but they are bullish
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q3–October 7, 2024)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q3–October 7, 2024)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q3 and YTD to 9/30/24)
    Pg L2: With the new CEO Salim RAMJI onboard, Vanguard is making some changes. Rather than lowering the ERs by tiny/small amounts across the board, it will move selectively in areas of active management with disruptive low ERs, with an initial push into active bond funds. It has also developed in-house capabilities for bonds, unlike its equity and allocation/hybrid funds that mostly use external advisors. In the passive area, the ETF giants are Vanguard and iShares/BlackRock, and mutual fund giants are Vanguard and Fidelity (not so well-known). But growth in the passive fund area is limited for these giant players. That game has been played and these parties have won.
    Growth areas now are ETFs (tax-efficiency and market hour trading), bond funds (much larger and fragmented market compared to equities), alternatives (private-market is huge now as many unicorns and smaller companies remain private longer; but Vanguard won’t touch cryptos), RIA channels (but that won’t work without improving Vanguard’s poor M-F, 8-8 customer service). Rather than pushing into all areas at once, it will move selectively into areas with maximum disruptive low-cost effects.
    Pg L7 In 2024/Q3, gold funds, China funds and bond proxies (bond funds, utilities, real estate. Dividend stocks) rallied due to geopolitics (for gold), the Fed rate cut and China easing. The value funds also did well. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    More on Funds & Retirement
    INCOME. Dividend and dividend-growth stocks are coming back in favor after the Fed rate cut. US ETFs: SCHD, VYM, VIG, DIVB; China ETF: PGJ. Several stocks are also mentioned.
    RETIREMENT. MEDICARE open enrollment period (OEP) is from October 15 – December 7. As there are many changes for Parts B, D, C/MA, don’t just throw away the recent notices you got about them; drug formularies may change too. Part D will have $2K out-of-pocket limit for covered drug costs (so, you will be out of luck if the drug isn’t covered); premiums will also go down a little. Medicare Advantage/C plans face higher costs and tighter government reimbursements, and many insurers are curtailing (reducing extra coverages, increasing premiums & deductibles) or exiting (Wellcare/Centene-CNC in 6 states) the MA/C market. Humana MA dropped a notch in its government rating and is discontinuing MA/C in 13 counties. If your MA/C plan is discontinued, and you don’t do anything, you will be enrolled in the original Medicare and will have the opportunity to get Medigap insurance without medical underwriting; normally, it’s hard to go back from MA/C to original Medicate due to the underwriting required for Medigap insurance. Make sure that your doctors are still in the plan.
    Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows. A screenshot link will be included quarterly in the Summaries.
    https://i.ibb.co/Chcbzrj/Barrons-Cash-Track-100524.png
    image
    Barron’s discontinued quarterly FUND CATEGORY PERFORMANCE table in 2024 that were used to highlight the best and the worst performing fund categories. The new MFOP Quarterly tool (see MFO, October 2024) can generate a similar table and the screenshot links for Top 5 and Bottom 5 follow. Both Barron’s and MFOP use Lipper fund databases.
    Q3 Top 5 https://i.ibb.co/bJT3M6T/MFOP-Quarterly-Top5-100424.png
    image
    Q3 Bottom 5 https://i.ibb.co/CwV2Vx3/MFOP-Quarterly-Bottom5-100424.png
    image
    LINK
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Experts are warning that a recent contract to supply Oklahoma’s Department of Education with an estimated 55,000 bibles might actually represent a breach of state law. That’s after the contract’s exacting specifications came to light—and they only really seem to favor one version: Lee Greenwood’s God Bless the U.S.A. Bible, often referred to as the Trump Bible for its endorsement from the former president himself.
    At $60 a pop, the contract would net its publisher something in the region of $3.3 million, with some of that going back to Donald Trump in fees. “It appears to me that this bid is anything but competitive,” former state Attorney General Drew Edmondson told The Oklahoman on Friday.
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-bible-is-one-of-the-only-versions-approved-for-oklahoma-schools
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    BaluBalu and others:
    To the best of my knowledge there are no US mutual funds or ETFs dedicated to investing in the Nordic bond high-yield market. The 50 funds mentioned are all overseas UCITs
    Thanks David for confirming. Look forward to NRDCX’s success.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    BaluBalu and others:
    To the best of my knowledge there are no US mutual funds or ETFs dedicated to investing in the Nordic bond high-yield market. The 50 funds mentioned are all overseas UCITs
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Terrible hurricane, more than 90 confirmed dead... I love my CATs, but I sold 80% of them on Friday. Strangely, they jumped up happily when Helene passed through: on Friday, EMPIX was up 0.19%, CBYYX was up 0.35%, and SHRIX was up 0.44%. Maybe they did not have time to respond, or people became optimistic that Helene hit the less populated area and was no longer a threat. But today, some sources estimated a total loss of about $20 billion, whereas others estimated total damage ~ $100 billion, though only a small part of it may hit CATs. Hopefully tomorrow will bring some clarity.
    Of these three funds, only CBYYX seems to be available to retail clients at Schwab or Fidelity. Where are SHRIX and EMPIX available to retail clients (no access to RIA)?
  • East Coast Dock Workers Strike Ends … But Might Resume January 15.
    To @hanks point on inflation, the premiums for 2025 HC policies are out. I have been in the lowest premium policy and the premium for 2025 has increased again by over 15%.
    May be we should start a new thread on HC insurance with renewals coming up.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    In response to several comments made in the discussion board:
    CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Fund (“NRDCX”) intends to make monthly distributions.
    The Fund was internally seeded by CrossingBridge and/or affiliates with $2MM. According to Bloomberg, NRDCX now has $9.57MM in AUM
    Although NRDCX may seem a novelty to US centric investors, Nordic High Yield bond funds in the form of UCITs (European mutual find structures) are “alive & well”
    A list of the top 50 UCITs focused on Nordic High Yield sourced by our DNB institutional salesman indicated over USD$20 billion in AUM on August 31, 2024 which represent around 1/3 of the estimated market size of the Nordic High Yield Bond Market (deemed below investment grade).
    Fidelity platform is expected to be alive by Monday per John Conner but feel free to call customer service to complain.
    If you have any additional comments or questions, please feel free to e-mail [email protected]
  • East Coast Dock Workers Strike Ends … But Might Resume January 15.
    While the government said it won't interfere by ordering workers back under Taft-Hartley, my guess is that it used that power to pressure both sides to come to a temporary resolution.
    1. Management was at +$3/hr increase each year for 6 years, but the union was asking +$5/hr. So, they were probably told to split the difference and settle for +$4/hr wage increases NOW.
    2. Both sides will continue to haggle on other aspects until 1/15/24.
    A long port strike could be very disruptive for the supply-chains and the economy. Pictures of people already hoarding supplies weren't good. Powell probably took note of these wage increases that were multiple times of his +2% average inflation target.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    @BaluBalu. For me it is always easier to make the buy decision then the sell. I have been at this since 1984 and my list of famous and successful managers that I have invested with is a long one. I could not prove it but I think I would be miles ahead if I had followed the Boglehead doctrine from the start. Less interesting but perhaps more lucrative. I know of one investor here who ALWAYS knows what to do and when to do it but he is the only one.

    Yep. It is always on my selling when I lose money or profit because I do not know when to sell. That has always been a mystery.
    I am a proof that buy and hold would have put me miles ahead because my taxable account multiplies at a faster rate than my IRA. On top of that, withdrawal from my taxable account is taxed at zero to 20% (federal) long term tax rate whereas withdrawal from my IRA is at ordinary income tax rate (I do not recall when I saw a less than 25% federal rate.)
    We digress from the topic of the thread.
    The best investing decision I ever made was to invest in Wellington as a young lad, held forever. All the rest is a hobby.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    That's my worry with QQMNFX. Is the risk/reward that much better than a solid bond fund particularly if rates fall as "expected"?
    BGHIX would be one example that I've been in since before the managers joined BrandywineGlobal.

    Sorry, but a quick glance at BGHIX's Standard Deviation of 7.7% and a 3-year total return of only 4.2% doesn't qualify the fund to be on my personal watch list. If I invest in bond funds, I prefer funds like ICMUX or CBLDX, for example, that have significantly better risk/reward profiles than BGHIX.
    By the way, QQMNX, which has a slightly higher SD than BGHIX, 8.6% v. 7.7%, has a 3-year total return of 14.4%, a difference of over 10%. That's "much better" than any solid bond fund I am familiar with.
    If your sample size is 3 years, fine. Over 10 years BGHIX outperformed QQMNX with a CAGR of 8.18 vs 7.24 and a sharpe ratio of .84 vs .61 and max drawdown of 13.29 vs. 18.27 (it's this last number that's most concerning). All that being said, I've decided to take a chance on this one.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    @BaluBalu. For me it is always easier to make the buy decision then the sell. I have been at this since 1984 and my list of famous and successful managers that I have invested with is a long one. I could not prove it but I think I would be miles ahead if I had followed the Boglehead doctrine from the start. Less interesting but perhaps more lucrative. I know of one investor here who ALWAYS knows what to do and when to do it but he is the only one.
    Yep. It is always on my selling when I lose money or profit because I do not know when to sell. That has always been a mystery.
    I am a proof that buy and hold would have put me miles ahead because my taxable account multiplies at a faster rate than my IRA. On top of that, withdrawal from my taxable account is taxed at zero to 20% (federal) long term tax rate whereas withdrawal from my IRA is at ordinary income tax rate (I do not recall when I saw a less than 25% federal rate.)
    We digress from the topic of the thread.
  • Wagon Mutual Fund WAGNX
    I see many ideas as special situations. For example, several coal companies went bankrupt and provided good speculative opportunities when they came out of bankruptcy. This has nothing to with the fact that coal is a dying industry in the Western World, but not so for many EMs.
    So, look at WAGNX / WGNIX as collection of special ideas that will change in future. And as MP said the objective is to beat SP500 but maybe with higher volatility.
    Inflows have been strong for this new fund (investor class WAGNX).
    image
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    Market-neutral funds shouldn't be seen as bond alternatives. They are designed with 50-50 long-short exposure. A big risk is that the portfolio manager may be wrong on both ends - the longs AND the shorts. If everything works right, the upside may be limited.
    Of course, bonds have risks too - HY, EMs, etc. Then there was 2022, and those who said that couldn't happen again, there was 2023.
    But be careful in going from CDs, m-mkt funds, ultra-ST bond funds and ST-bond funds into market-neutral funds.
    Options-writing funds have also been mentioned. But keep in mind that upside is capped and realized upside basically converts CGs into (options) income. However, the downside isn't limited. These are great late-bull-market vehicles and JPM has capitalized on them like no other firm.
  • East Coast Dock Workers Strike Ends … But Might Resume January 15.
    News is about suspension of strike until 1/15/25, the date to which the current contract is being extended with agreement on wages only. The rest of the issues will have to be negotiated by 1/15/2025.
    Wage increases will be as follows:
    Current base wage $39/hr
    Increase of +$4/hr for each of the nexr 6 years.
    So, wages will go like $39/hr, $43/hr, $47/hr, $51/hr, $55/hr, $59/hr, $63/hr (6th year).
    Rational cited is that shipping companies made lot of money when rates skyrocketed during & after pandemic and due to other geopolitical factors.
    So, those shipping rates aren't ever going back to what they were in view of this temporary contract extension.
    Many ask will prices rollback when inflation is 0% - NO, they will just stay at higher levels.
    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/03/business/port-strike-union-deal/index.html
  • East Coast Dock Workers Strike Ends … But Might Resume January 15.
    From Reuters
    I have a feeling this has been weighing on the markets this week. We shall see tomorrow whether this tentative settlement helps any.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    https://www.lazardassetmanagement.com/ie/en_uk/funds/ucits-funds/lazard-nordic-high-yield-bond-fund/f4941/s319/
    The above link is the Nordic High Yield bond fund offered by Lazard. Inception date was November 2, 2022, It has annualized return since then of 10.37%. Can’t argue with that. I would expect similar results from the Nordic fund offered by CrossingBridge.
    A few caveats. The Lazard fund could not have had a more opportune time to come out. The bear market in equities and junk bonds had just bottomed in October 2022. Another caveat is a huge downturn in equites because of a perceived recession would not be kind to junk bonds, here there or anywhere,
    CrossingBridge as we know is an excellent shop with a stable of great funds known for their persistency of trend. I don’t see why their new fund should be any different. I hear all the time that European credit including the Nordic countries is undervalued. I don’t intend to participate to any large degree unless this thing comes roaring out of the gate. There have been so many opportunities recently in domestic bonds where you have had 5%+ returns the past three months. Of course that all could evaporate if the current spike in oil continues unabated,