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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    @bee
    Thanks for the link to the Allan Roth article.
    I've previously read that Harry Markowitz split his contributions 50/50 between stocks and bonds.
    The Father of Modern Portfolio Theory didn't utilize efficient frontier analysis for his own portfolio!
    Markowitz's intention was only to minimize future regret.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    A common RMD table starts at 3.77% at 73, is 4.06% at 75, and increases rapidly, 6.25% at 85, 11.24% at 95,..., 50% at 120+ (who is that for?).
    However, portfolio withdrawals should be based on total portfolios, taxable, tax-deferred, tax-free.
    Well, imagine my surprise. Thanks for all the info, and @bee.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    I get Charlie's stuff in my email a few days earlier and so I do not get to visit this thread often.
    #4 above has been on my mind for a while. I can not say consumers are struggling without knowing if the total market has shrunk. Charlie needs to figure out if we are seeing a consolidation in these markets and also if some of the low end consumers are moving up in their preferences, helping Walmart at the expense of the low end retailers.
    Are we moving towards a Big three in this market: Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, all three stocks trading at unbelievable valuations?
    "In its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, Walmart raised its full-year guidance for net sales growth and operating income growth. The company also reported strong sales growth in both its U.S. and international segments."
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Thank you @Observant1.
    1. Very timely to wrap up the labor market data and trend. 25 bps rate cut is the most probable on September’s FED meeting.
    2. September is generally weak for stock market. Tech pullback in recent weeks is an example. Again the defensive sectors such as consumer staple and utility move in opposite direction from technology and consumer discretionary sectors.
    3. Longer end Bond yield is falling to 3.8% that benefits the broader bond market. The 12 month total return of AGG has outpaced money market.
    4. The downturns of Dollar Tree, Dollar Stores and Big Lots indicate the consumers are struggling with retail goods and food, while Walmart is rising.
  • Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks
    The biggest problems with investment articles:
    1) Bogle, and Burton Malkiel's Book, Random Walk proved decades ago that if you buy and hold the SP500 you would likely beat most investors and mutual funds for decades to come. There is not much to discuss after that, but many still do.
    2) Many writers are very educated but it has nothing to do with market performance So, they discuss mostly economics or tell you what happened already; they repackage the same articles they published before with changes to fit whatever.
    If economics was the best way to make money, Profs would be the richest people on earth.
    3) We also know that most predictions are useless.
    After decades of listening and reading thousands of articles and interviews, I came to a conclusion based on facts that the economy, inverted yield, PE, PE10, valuation and many more can't predict what markets would do next 1-4-16 weeks or even months and years.
    4) Some "experts" are smart and use history for their predictions. Example: Prof Siegel basically has 2 long term opinions a) Stocks will make money next year; b) Stocks will make more than bonds...I say duh. Since 1980, the SP500 has been positive about 80%.
    He missed every down year. To see other experts, read (link).
    5) I have been reading this type of articles for years, and they follow the above. I just do it because investing is my passion. None made me real money. I got a lot more great ideas from handfuls of posters on several sites, including this one.
    6) This is why I created my own site. This (link) has several learning articles.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    A common RMD table starts at 3.77% at 73, is 4.06% at 75, and increases rapidly, 6.25% at 85, 11.24% at 95,..., 50% at 120+ (who is that for?).
    However, portfolio withdrawals should be based on total portfolios, taxable, tax-deferred, tax-free.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Thanks.
    I was looking at an eTF and yesterday it had data to 8/15/24, but this AM it's to 9/6/24.
    I am wondering if some aspects (performance, etc) can be updated more frequently and the others (MPT stats, fund flows) less frequently.
    And that ETF in MFO Premium database isn't recognized elsewhere - it just messes up talking about eTFs.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    I think RMDs will require more than 4-5% withdrawal rate for those who are subject to RMDs. But the $$$ can just be reinvested, if desired. If you want to leave some $$$ behind, forget about 4 or 5 or 20%. Make it 3% or lower, if you can manage it. There's no rule about leaving nothing behind, spending down the whole portfolio, eh?
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    "Investors have been conditioned for decades to believe they can withdraw only 4% a year
    through a theoretical 30-year retirement, adjusted for inflation."

    "But several studies and retirement experts now view 4% as too conservative and inflexible.
    J.P. Morgan, in a recent report, recommended about 5%.
    David Blanchett, who has a doctorate in personal financial planning and has studied retirement withdrawal rates for years, says 5% 'is a much better starting place, given today’s economic reality and people’s flexibility.'”

    "The inventor of the 4% rule agrees.
    Retired financial planner Bill Bengen tells Barron’s he is revising his benchmark in an upcoming book,
    and that a rate 'very close to 5%' may be warranted."

    This article (link below) places too much emphasis on bucket strategies.
    While a formal bucket strategy can be beneficial for certain investors, it is not essential.
    The "4% rule" is not an ironclad rule - it's only a decent starting point for retirement withdrawal rates.
    1) What are your thoughts regarding retirement withdrawal rates of ~5% for the general population?
    2) Which withdrawal strategy do you utilize and why:
    a) fixed real withdrawal amount (FRWA); b) FRWA which skips inflation adjustment after annual portfolio loss;
    c) RMD method using IRS Life Expectancy Tables; d) "guardrails" plan developed by Guyton and Klinger;
    e) other strategy.
    Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
  • The Thrilling 36 Funds
    Additional Morningstar Fee Level information for mutual funds.
    Fee Level – Broad places funds into category groupings that are formed around the fund category
    systems of each region. Some fund categories form their own category grouping, while other fund
    categories are combined to form groupings of similar or related categories, particularly in the case
    of categories with small numbers of funds.
    Fee Level – Distribution creates smaller comparison groups within each broad category grouping
    using the distribution channels available within each region.
    Why have some categories been combined to form larger category groupings?
    Morningstar categories that have a similar focus can be combined into larger groupings.
    In most cases, those categories have relatively few share classes compared with most
    other categories in that market. With a small number of share classes, the interpretation
    of the ranks can be affected by a few share classes with an extremely high or low fees.
    More share classes generally means a more even distribution of fees.
    Still, it’s important that the categories that are combined generally have similar ranges of fees,
    otherwise some of the categories may dominate either the higher or lower ends of the range.
    Fee Level Global Calculations - PDF
  • The Thrilling 36 Funds
    "Assuming there are no typos there, that's a curious though not impossible situation -
    institutional shares averaging a higher cost than retail shares.
    One possibility is that there might be some expensive funds offering only institutional class shares."

    I thought this was odd as well since institutional funds are usually less expensive than retail funds.
    Unless M* provided inaccurate data, the lowest quintile fee levels referenced above are correct.
    The M* Fee Level-Distribution Group (aka M* Peer Group) for FDIVX is "Foreign Large Cap No Load."
    The fund's expense ratio (0.65%) resides in the second cheapest fee quintile for this group.
    Consequently, your conclusion that Mr. Kinnel is using the M* Fee Level-Broad Group appears to be correct.
    The corresponding Fee Level-Broad Group for FDIVX includes Foreign Large Cap Value +
    Foreign Large Cap Blend + Foreign Large Cap Growth (all distribution channels and expense structures).
    Thanks for your research regarding M* fee level methodology!
  • NIXT
    If such a process works consistently, it would be of interest. It may be just another gimmick.
    The Deletions ETF (NIXT) is essentially a bet on long-term reversion to the mean. Index deletions are typically followed by sell-offs. Arnott hopes to find value in unusually depressed stock prices.
    “.... historical evidence that they win by 5% a year for the next five years, at least.”

  • The Thrilling 36 Funds

    The Morningstar Peer Group for PRWCX is "Moderate Allocation No Load."
    The lowest quintile fee level for this group is <0.50% while the expense ratio for PRWCX is 0.71%.
    The Morningstar Peer Group for TRAIX is "Moderate Allocation Institutional."
    The lowest quintile fee level for this group is <0.60% while the expense ratio for TRAIX is 0.59%.
    Source: Morningstar Managed Investment Reports</blockquote>
    Assuming there are no typos there, that's a curious though not impossible situation - institutional shares averaging a higher cost than retail shares. One possibility is that there might be some expensive funds offering only institutional class shares.
    No matter. What these numbers represent is what M* calls "Morningstar Fee Level - Distribution". M* has three different fee level groupings, the other two being "Morningstar Fee Level - Broad" and "Morningstar Fee level - Variable Products". The question is which one Kinnel is using.
    He writes only that FDIVX's ER of 0.65% takes it "into the cheapest quintile of its category" without further refinement. It's that terse description without more that tells us he is using M*'s "Broad" category grouping...
    In its US Fee Level Methodology doc M* writes:
    Morningstar Fee Level–Broad ranks funds using only the Morningstar category groupings as comparison groups to determine the rank of each fund. Morningstar Fee Level–Distribution, however, further isolates mutual funds with similar distribution channels and expense structures to create smaller comparison groups within each category grouping.
    TRAIX does not fail Kinnel's screen. The tool and database he is using fail to precisely execute that screen. It's a common problem when M* (or anyone else) uses tools mechanically.
    Here, the database semantics do not match his stated criterion of accessibility. The actual min, not the official min (what's in the database), determines whether a share class is accessible.
    Consider PIMIX. $0 min, NTF at E*Trade. One can't get more accessible than that. But M*'s database says that you need $1M to play. So the tool fails to find PIMIX.
    PONAX flunks the screen because, though its ER is in the lowest quintile of its distribution peers (higher cost front end load funds), its ER is too high relative to the fund's broad category (multisector bond) peers.
    (Source: M* new screener)
  • The Thrilling 36 Funds
    @dpf749
    The Morningstar Peer Group for PRWCX is "Moderate Allocation No Load."
    The lowest quintile fee level for this group is <0.50% while the expense ratio for PRWCX is 0.71%.
    The Morningstar Peer Group for TRAIX is "Moderate Allocation Institutional."
    The lowest quintile fee level for this group is <0.60% while the expense ratio for TRAIX is 0.59%.
    Source: Morningstar Managed Investment Reports
  • The Thrilling 36 Funds
    TRAIX management fee is 59 basis points, still not the lowest quintile. It would have to be below 50 basis points to qualify.
    Source?
    On the TRAIX M* price page is a bar graph divided into quintiles that labels the price of TRAIX as "low" (first quintile).
    Following your TRAIX price page link it seems I misread the price quintile score, which I had sourced from an earlier post by commenter @Observant1. However, that same Morningstar price page lists the "Min. Initial Investment" at $500,000.00, which explains why TRAIX failed Kinnel's screen.
  • NIXT
    Thanks for the MFO article. Interesting concept. I will add to my watch list. NIXT concept should be easy to validate by back testing since little room for judgement. I wonder how they populate the portfolio at startup? Depending on how they do that might affect volatility. Cash might flow in faster than stocks purchased "dumped stocks" in portfolio. They say the fund will be small cap value. It seems some of the S&P 500 dumps might be larger cap?? Thanks for making me aware.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Personal finance master Jonathan Clements is turning his recent terminal cancer diagnosis into an important teaching opportunity on money and life.


    Also,
    Previous Clements interview:
  • WealthTrack Show
    Personal finance master Jonathan Clements is turning his recent terminal cancer diagnosis into an important teaching opportunity on money and life.


    Also,
    Previous Clements interview:
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the select bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
    W/E September 6, 2024..... Weak equity = +++ returns for quality bonds
    --- With downward pressures, this week, in most equity sectors, quality bonds performed as would be expected, with very good price gains.
    Bond NAV's had very good positive pricing through the 4 day week, with slight pull backs on Friday only. *** I'm going to attempt to discover going forward, if there becomes any selling more directed towards the end of the week(s). A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
    FIRST:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 2 - September 6, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 5.15% yield. MMKT's yields remain basically unchanged for the past weeks. Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's. Yields were down a few 100's of a percentage.

    --- AGG = +1.25% / +4.47% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.09% / +4.13% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.54% / +3.76% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +1.06% / +4.29% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.63% / +4.41% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.60% / +3.92% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.27% / +4.06% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.33% / +4.05% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +1.55% / +3.62% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +3.51% / +3.36% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +4.86% / +2.73% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +4.77% / +1.08% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -6.36% / -1.07% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +10.38% / -3.66% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +1.31% / +4.69% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = +1.38% / +4.54% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = -.28% / +4.93% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +.23% / +6.53% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.78%/+4.87% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.70% /+1.75% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.21%/+6.73% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +.20% / +4.00% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +.48% / +8.09% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 5.15% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch