He emphasized inflation "expectations" several times - it's monitoring or anchoring.
I see 2 common quantitative measures for "expectations":
1. Inflation-"expectation" = Nominal Treasury yield - TIPS yield.
FRED has data for 1, 2, 5, 10, 20+ years; chart below is for 5 years.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1t0dr
2. Fed fund futures rate "expectations" that are based on trader's expectations as indicated by futures quoted around future FOMC Meetings. In the link below, click on Probabilities on the side panel.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Then there are lots of opinions floating around - I don't pay much attention to those.

Looks like investors are about to get what they’ve been wishing for. Sure to move markets, but not necessarily in the ways expected. / Live Updates Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole.
From the WSJ : “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said in a speech at the central bank’s annual gathering in the Grand Teton National Park on Friday. “The time has come for policy to adjust.”
From Lewis Carroll’s ”The Walrus And The Carpenter” (poem)
"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
Of cabbages—and kings—
And why the sea is boiling hot—
And whether pigs have wings."

FWIW, in our IL 529 plan, I relied mostly on balanced option thinking that I couldn't tweak things myself (1-2 trade per year rule; but can redirect new contributions). Basically untouched for 20+ years, it does add up.

Over at Stocktwits, a fellow had this to say, following the recent dividend distribution from ET Energy Transfer:
Just got off the Phone with Schwab....they are hand-entry entering clients back into drip program....shares were purchased at 15.79 a share but their website says 16.30....if you divide dividend amount by shares it will show the 15.79 cost.....if they bought your shares at 16.30 call them and complain and they will manually enter you into the DRIP program.
Well, my DRIP shares (reinvestment was ALREADY selected) show a reinvestment share price of $16.40.
I was just on with a chat agent, not a phone call. Easier to do, without the 16 identity questions. I showed him that precise message. He said he'd put in my request to get my own account corrected, updated. It'll take two days or so.
Next question: in effect, the chat agent and myself were doing the job of Quality Control, making sure things get ACCURATELY recorded. But nobody at Schwab is paying ME. And, will Schwab go do a re-run and correct the accounts of ALL concerned? We know the answer...

@larryB
Agree. The 529 rules are to benefit the beneficiary into their education future. Tis not an investment playground for those who contribute and/or manage the monies.
We had a few turns with the wee bit 'fiddle too much' syndrome is the way back days. We started with T-IRA's in the late 1970's. After a few 'you dumb arse'; everything may be smoothed. Keeping the 'twitchy aspect' is a difficult judgement decision that is full of temptations, if the investor 'doesn't know thy self' well enough.
I'm reminded of the standard questionnaire, as explained by those I've know who have used an adviser...... What is your risk tolerance? I'm sure most didn't know until January of 2009, when compared to their equity portfolio of 6 months previous.

Hi @larryB
One item that tempers folks from getting crazy with flipping monies in a 529 is the first set of 'rules' established by the gov't. regarding 529's. ONLY 1 change/exchange per calendar year to investment sectors. A few years ago, this was expanded to 2 portfolio changes/exchanges of holdings per calendar year. And of course, the investment style choices are the more standard choices. No exotic stuff.
If you're curious, a LIST of investment styles/choices at the Utah 529. Mostly Vanguard, some DFA and some state choices.
They're almost 'free' with some .02 ER's. There are also small, periodic administrative charges ($15), which is common with 529's.

Hi @yogibearbull
I probably should have clarified a bit more.
--- The Utah 529 Educational Saving Plan LINK
--- We didn't care for the vendor of the Michigan 529 plan at the time (2006). We missed the state tax deduction that would have been available; but we are very pleased with the Utah 529. A very well operated program with a lot of investment choices. One may choose established mixes by age; or as we did, and we built our own choices.
--- The annual re-balance is a feature of the Utah 529 contract. I don't really care for this aspect; as we would prefer to let the gains remain for the equity and bond portions. We've not asked, but suspect the program wants to temper the portfolio from becoming lopsided. But, this has worked out okay over the long time frame.
--- We did NOT need to use an advisor
--- And yes about Secure Act 2.0. As everything stands at this time, monies will move to the beneficiary Roth IRA (per the $35k total and the annual maximum at this time). The Roth has been active for more than 5 years. Even with the possibility of a costly Master's program, the return on the investments currently is running ahead far enough for such an expense.
NOTE: the symbols shown previous have changed (per Vanguard) two times during our investment period in these holdings. But, the fund descriptions have NOT changed. VITPX and VBMPX are still valid symbols.

@catch22: the 50/50 equity/bond portfolio is reset to 50/50 each September, per the contract
Unclear what kind of "contract"? Did you use one of the 2 annual exchanges allowed to rebalance, or a 529 advisor did it for you?
Was 529 all used up? SECURE 2.0 allows some residual funds (in 15+ year old 529 for funds in account for 5+ years) to be transferred to beneficiary's Roth IRA.

A real world example of a very lazy portfolio using two index funds.
Criteria:
--- 529 education account, open for 18 years
--- inception, May 2006
--- self directed with self choice(s) of investment sectors
--- 13 years of contributions (1st and 15th of each month) = $ cost averaging
--- 5 years to date; no additional contributions
--- the 50/50 equity/bond portfolio is reset to 50/50 each September, per the Utah 529 contract
The institutional funds (for 529 accounts) are VITPX (U.S. Total stock market) and VBMPX (U.S. Total IG bond market). All distributions reinvested in the fund(s).
The annualized returns data are from Vanguard, M* and the 529 account.
--- annualized 15 year combined return = 8.125%
--- YTD return = 10.47%
Remain curious,
Catch

@BaluBalu
View two, SPY vs VWINX. Same time frame 2000 through 2011.
BINGO !!!

@BaluBalu
One view. SPY vs FBALX

I would think bond funds and even VWINX may have done better than moderate allocation funds like FBALX. But for apples to apples, I was looking for blend funds.

@BaluBalu
One view. SPY vs FBALX

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751173/000199937124010489/realestate-497_082224.htm
497 1 realestate-497_082224.htm DEFINITIVE MATERIALS
MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
(the “Fund”)
Real Estate Series – Class I, S, W and Z
(the “Series”)
Supplement dated August 22, 2024 to:
● the Summary Prospectus dated March 1, 2024, for the Series (“Summary Prospectus”);
● the Prospectus dated March 1, 2024, for the Series (“Prospectus”); and
● the Statement of Additional Information
dated March 1, 2024, for the Series (“SAI”).
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI.
The Board of Directors of the Fund has voted to terminate the offering of shares of the Real Estate Series and instructed officers of the Fund to take all steps necessary to completely liquidate the Series. Accordingly, effective immediately, the Series will be closed to new investors. Effective September 27, 2024, the Series will stop selling its shares to existing shareholders and will no longer accept automatic investments from existing shareholders.
The Series will redeem all of its outstanding shares on or about October 11, 2024 and distribute the net proceeds pro rata to its shareholders (subject to maintenance of appropriate reserves for liquidation and other expenses). The liquidation date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Fund’s officers.
As is the case with other redemptions, each shareholder’s redemption, including a mandatory redemption, will constitute a taxable disposition of shares for those shareholders who do not hold their shares through tax-advantaged plans. Shareholders should contact their tax advisors to discuss the potential income tax consequences of the liquidations.
As shareholders redeem shares of the Series between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemptions, and as the Series increases its cash position to facilitate redemptions, the Series may not be able to continue to invest its assets in accordance with its stated investment policies. Accordingly, the Series may not be able to achieve its investment objectives during the period between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemptions.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000168035924000241/bridgewaymgdvol497e08222024.htm
497 1 bridgewaymgdvol497e08222024.htm
BRIDGEWAY FUNDS, INC.
Managed Volatility Fund (BRBPX)
Supplement dated August 22, 2024
to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated October 31, 2023
On August 22, 2024, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Bridgeway Funds, Inc. considered and approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Managed Volatility Fund (the “Fund”). The Fund will be liquidated pursuant to a Board-approved Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) on or about November 18, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). In anticipation of the Fund’s liquidation, the Fund is permitted to depart from its stated investment objective and strategies and intends to begin to sell its assets in exchange for cash or cash equivalents.
Effective immediately, new account requests, exchanges into the Fund and purchase orders for Fund shares will no longer be permitted (other than those purchase orders received through dividend reinvestment).
The costs of the liquidation (except brokerage costs and tax consequences of shareholders), including the mailing of this notification to shareholders, will be borne by Bridgeway Capital Management, LLC. (the “Adviser”). Between now and the Liquidation Date, existing Fund shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions, redeem shares, or exchange shares into other Bridgeway Funds.
Any shareholder who has not redeemed or exchanged shares into another Bridgeway Fund by the regular close of business on the business day before the Liquidation Date will receive a liquidating distribution as of the Liquidation Date. On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute pro rata to its remaining shareholders all of its assets in cash, and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and canceled.
The liquidation (or a redemption or exchange) will constitute a taxable event, except to the extent the Fund’s shares are held in a tax-advantaged product, plan or account. Therefore, you may be subject to federal, state or local taxes. The Fund does not provide tax advice. You should consider consulting with your tax advisor for information regarding all tax consequences applicable to your investments in the Fund.
To contact Bridgeway Funds for questions regarding this liquidation:
•Call us at: 800-661-3550
•E-mail us at: [email protected]
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

I noticed nobody has proposed for consideration a portfolio solely made up of ETFs...kind of surprising as there are many model portfolio's like that floating out there..."The Lazy Portfolio", the three ETF portfolio, etc...
Also find it interesting that some are looking at past results as a comparison...last 15 years relatively low inflation until recently...also tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulus. Who knows that the future holds...some of you might remember a few years ago when I mentioned high grade rubies, you can fit a million dollar of them in your sock and no one would know..also interesting that no one has mentioned bitcoin...are we just a bunch of older dudes fighting the last war or are we going to open our minds and skate to where the puck is headed not where it is and has been?
Looking forward for this exercise, I am considering "continuity of fund managers", what are their ages and what is the bench strength and financial soundness of the fund company? Maybe need some international exposure as what if dollar weakens substantially?
What other inputs are folks pondering that maybe haven't been discussed yet?

A lot of people are showing fascination with these "newfangled" trading funds. Not only newfangled but new - PHEFX is barely a year old. So how much one can understand about a relatively complex fund beyond the fact that it started hot out of the gate?
(See the original thread on this fund.)
That said, I ran Portfolio Visualizer efficient frontier analyses. Because a couple of funds were extremely new, I had to make substitutions. In lieu of PHEFX I used IPSAX; also near the top of 1 year performance for options trading funds. And FWIW over such a short period, it correlates 99%. For HELO I substituted JHQEX.
I also threw in the four funds Vanguard uses for its model 60/40 portfolio: VTI, VXUS, BND, BNDX. Not surprisingly, at the high volatility end of the efficient frontier curve one finds pure VTI. (Throw in VFIAX and that will be the selected fund; it's been hard to beat S&P 500 if one doesn't care about volatility.)
PV efficient frontier analysis
At different levels of volatility, a portfolio with a single fund, PVCMX (lower volatility), JHEQX (medium volatility), or PRPFX (high volatility) comes pretty close to the efficient frontier. At 7% standard deviation, the highest return (over life of the funds analyzed) is 44% PVCMX, 46% JHEQX, 6% VTSMX, and 4% PRPFX.
Throw in the fund I mentioned in the original thread, HSFAX, and that replaces most of PVCMX.
Portfolio Visualizer second efficient frontier analysis

Excellent topic @JD_co
As you realize, PRPFX wasn’t a recommendation. But I was struck by how close that +6.98% was to your hypothetical 7% goal. Like you, I prefer to diversify well beyond a single fund - no matter how good it is. The biggest problem, I think, is that shorter term (5-10 years) anything can happen, and so trying to extrapolate future return armed only with a decade’s historical performance is tough and might not lead to your desired result.
As a very conservative investor, I use 3 funds only for trying to gage daily volatility and yearly return. They are not benchmarks. They are not goals. They are simply markers for what I think a conservative investor might reasonably expect to earn over time with very limited volatility. I do not own any of these.
AOK - Globally diversified. 30% equity / 70% fixed income. Relies on index funds. Low ER
TRRIX - A fund of funds from T. Rowe Price. 40% equity / 60% fixed income. Moderate ER
ABRZX - An “alternative” style investment from Invesco. Stocks, bonds, commodities (including precious metals). Attempts to hedge market risk using derivatives. ER exceeds 1%
Over the past 15 years the 3 have averaged +5.40% annually. TRRIX led the pack with a slightly better 6.07% return over that period. Sound bad? For some perspective I compared that number to T. Rowe’s short-term bond fund PRWBX. It has returned +1.86% annually over the same period.
*** I should have checked VWINX, arguably the gold standard, for conservative funds. True to form VWINX has topped all three of my afore mentioned tracking funds with a +7.06 15 year average return. However, not that much better thanPRPFX’s +6.98% return over the same period. Personally, I’d pick PRPFX over VWINX, being willing to sacrifice the 0.08% advantage enjoyed by VWINX for better inflation protection.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/21/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (51.6%, high) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (23.7%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (24.7%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +27.9% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (130+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (45+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals flat), bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 67.88% (positive). Fed's Jackson Hole Conf Aug 22-24 w/Powell speaking at 10am Eastern on Fri. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1618/thread

Fun. I'll bite.
35-40% bonds. (DODIX and WCPNX, 50/50)
PRCFX (GIROUX) 30-35%
VLAAX 25% or so.

Would you settle for only 6.98%? That’s the annualized return of PRPFX over 15 years according to M*. If I were going to own just one fund, that would be my choice. Over that 15 year period the fund’s worst year was 2008 when it lost -8.36%. Its best year was 2003 when it gained +20.45%. (These numbers came from Yahoo Finance.)