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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 17 Dec. '25: PRWCX donuts all around.
    @dpf749. Re : VWIAX. It has about 38% stocks and about 12.5% of the fund is tech. It’s 2025 performance is pretty great compared to the much loved PRWCX,,,, with 56% stocks and 41.5% in tech. It’s called an income fund,,,,,,, not even a growth and income fund.
  • 17 Dec. '25: PRWCX donuts all around.
    True, an outstanding year for Wellington, but that fund was pretty much in the toilet for 2024. What changed? One thing, the managers decided to stop holding back and went all in on the Mag 7. I haven't checked, but 60/40 SPY and BND probably does about as well. I considered Wellington for a while, but decided I have enough MSFT and Nvdia already.
    VWIAX stuck to their guns and had another sub-par year in 2025, but I think that may turn around as the market rotates.
  • 17 Dec. '25: PRWCX donuts all around.
    One advantage to holding a 60/40 fund like PRWCX in a moderate portfolio is that cashflows don't affect your overall balance much. However, I usually take cash out from over-performers trading around their 52-week highs. Sadly, PRWCX is not in that category this year.
  • OMG what happened to my fund?!
    Verizon's card looks good. But just as one does not squeeze some good funds into one's portfolio if they don't fit, this Visa card doesn't do much for my wallet personally. It would give me four bits or so on my FiOS bill monthly, but that hardly makes it worth the effort.
    Cards that work for me:
    I wanted at least one MC (for foreign travel backup) that I would actually use on something. Citi's Custom Cash fits that need. I use it exclusively for groceries (5%).
    US Bank Visa (4%) for transit systems and cabs, and for gas; BofA custom cash (5.25%) for online purchases and streaming services, and 3.5% at Costco; and BofA premium rewards for most everything else - 3.5% on dining and travel, and 2.625% generally. Sure it costs me $95/yr, but I more than make that up with the higher cashback rates.
    Discover and Chase Freedom rotating categories sometimes fill in a gap. Like 5% back on Paypal to pay taxes (if the calendar timing is right). Otherwise they stay in my drawer.
  • Is this description of CLOs from Morningstar accurate?
    M*: "Default risk is remote for AAA CLO tranches"
    Janus: "Due to the credit enhancement features within CLO structures,
    there has never been a realized loss in any senior AAA, junior AAA, or AA rated CLO"

    I previously read that no AAA CLOs have defaulted during their entire existence (since 1992?).
    This is an excerpt from a KKR article that I read today.
    "Not only does CLO debt offer similar or better carry to leveraged loans,
    but it also has a degree of added protection against defaults.
    Because rated debt tranches benefit from the subordination of equity and lower rated tranches,
    a CLO portfolio’s par value can decline significantly before rated debt tranches begin taking a principal loss.
    By our calculations, assuming a 50% recovery in the event of a default, which is more conservative
    than historical averages, nearly one-fourth of the underlying loans in a CLO portfolio would have to default
    before the CLO’s BBB-rated debt security experiences a single dollar of losses."
    image
    https://www.kkr.com/insights/clo-liabilities-in-credit-portfolios
    I considered investing in JAAA or PAAA a while ago but decided against it
    since I wasn't quite sure how these funds would perform during the Fed's easing cycle.
    Angel Oak Capital Advisers suggests that it might be a good time to pivot away
    from AAA-rated CLOs due to lower short-term rates and the likelihood of an economic slowdown.
    https://angeloakcapital.com/overlooked-risks-in-aaa-rated-clos/
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (12/19/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing...
    00:00 Intro
    00:17 Topics
    01:12 A Confusing Labor Market
    10:49 Distorted Inflation Data
    17:13 An Unnecessary & Unwarranted Easing
    22:16 The Return of QE
    26:51 The Lower Rates Litmus Test
    36:24 The Year of the Comeback
    39:34 Lower Gas Prices, Rising Real Wages
    Video
    Blog
  • OMG what happened to my fund?!
    If you use Verizon, VZ visa is 4% on gas, restaurants, groceries ( most of my spending), not cash back but you get VZ credit off your VZ bill. Other than that I have 5% Amazon/Whole Foods, 5% Target card and 5% Lowes card and W Fargo 2% on everything else. If you use the Earnify app and have Amazon prime you get off .10/gallon with occasional off .25/gallon. I like Earnify because I never have to use credit card at pump. Just tell Earnify what pump number you're on and it unlocks the pump and adjusts price. Only good at BP, Aamco and I can't remember others. I used to have Discover but dumped it as it was annoying having to sign up for different categories at different times.
  • WSW, Dave Westin, The past 25 years of Markets, 2000-2025
    I watched Wall Street Week last night.
    As previously mentioned, it was a decent overview of the past 25 years.
    The program didn't delve into much detail regarding specific events
    (e.g., dot-com bubble, Great Financial Crisis, COVID shutdown).
    I enjoyed the conversation with Ray Dalio.
  • 17 Dec. '25: PRWCX donuts all around.
    It's been my habit to wait until after Jan. 1st, then give some of my stuff a haircut, including PRWCX. The pay-out for me from PRWCX was over $9k in '25, but I won't take all of that. I'll spread the haircut around, with my other funds. Perhaps redeploy a bit of it.
  • 17 Dec. '25: PRWCX donuts all around.
    I wasn't overly enthused, either.
    FWIW saying, for a few months I've toyed with reducing my position to raise money to put into (mostly) income-producing equities and did NOT make my annual $10K contribution to it after annual distributions were paid, which breaks with ~15 years or so of tradition.
  • OMG what happened to my fund?!
    Three BofA cards start with a base rate of 1.5% that rises to 2.25% if you keep $50K invested with Merrill (and/or in BofA), and 2.625% if you keep $100K with them.
    https://promotions.bankofamerica.com/preferredrewards/en
    The cards are Unlimited Cash Rewards (but 3% foreign fee), Travel Rewards (but cash back must be redeemed against travel and dining charges), and Premium Rewards (but $95 annual fee, with 2% base rate [up to 3.5% with Merrill balance] on travel and dining charges).
    At BofA, travel is a very broad category, including touristy things like zoos and museums, and stay at home things like, well, home (HOA fees through a management company).
  • Box Spread Loans
    Anyone familiar with Box Spread Loans? Saw this article and dug deeper. It does seem like a way to essentially borrow at a little more than comparable term Treasuries but must it must be executed flawlessly to avoid big risks.
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/how-affluent-investors-are-using-options-math-to-borrow-on-the-cheap-85216.html
  • OMG what happened to my fund?!
    "i dont see any credit cards that pay more than 2% cashback on broad non-transient categories."
    I have two credit cards.
    The first one pays 2% cash back on all purchases.
    The second one pays 5% cash back on gas at Costco, 4% cash back on eligible gas and EV charging,
    3% cash back on restaurants and travel, 2% cash back on Costco purchases,
    and 1% cash back on all other purchases.
    I don't want to play games with varying cash back amounts on rotating categories.
  • Is this description of CLOs from Morningstar accurate?
    Bank-loans are non-investment-grade or not-rated. So, a pool of bank-loans would also be non-inv-grade. But then, the restructuring magic is applied to slice-and-dice the portfolio in tranches of various quality - AAA,...,BB,....equity tranch.
    It's sort of like a company issuing bonds and preferred stock, both of which pay income (technically the former pays interest and the latter divs). If the company has trouble servicing its debt, the preferred stock suffers while the available cash is used to pay the bond interest. To the extent that tranches are "magic", so one can also view preferred stock as sorcery.
    Guggenheim has a pretty good writeup of how CLOs work.
    https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/understanding-collateralized-loan-obligations-clo
    Janus and M* seem to differ slightly in their assessment of AAA CLO risk.
    M*: "Default risk is remote for AAA CLO tranches"
    Janus: "Due to the credit enhancement features within CLO structures, there has never been a realized loss in any senior AAA, junior AAA, or AA rated CLO"
    https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/the-art-and-science-of-managing-aaa-clo-portfolios/
    The difference may be due to a subtle wording shift, from "default risk" (including technical/contractual defaults) to "realized loss".
    In any case, if risk is a concern with AAA CLO ETFs, PAAA maintains an even higher grade mix of CLOs than JAAA. And FWIW, M* gives PAAA a higher medal rating (by humans, not computer).
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4830794-paaa-defensive-yield-in-uncertain-times
    Here's a Portfolio Visualizer comparison using TRBUX as a baseline and PAAA, JAAA, and BBBIX (like TRBUX a "traditional" ultrashort fund, though with TF). The AAA CLO funds are less volatile resulting in higher Sharpe ratios. Nevertheless, M* gives them higher risk scores (though still 10 or under out of 100), vs. 4 for the traditional funds.
  • Is this description of CLOs from Morningstar accurate?
    "Bank-loans are non-investment-grade or not-rated"
    Interesting. Thanks @yogibearbull. I knew there was "magic" involved, but did not realize the extent.
    "M* shows JAAA as having only 7.65% as non-inv-gr & not-rated."
    True, but that is after all the magic is incorporated into that rating. The remaining 92.35% are investment grade CLOs, but not necessarily (and probably not) investment grade individual securities.
  • Is this description of CLOs from Morningstar accurate?
    Full 2nd para follows.
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/jaaa/analysis
    "Collateralized loan obligations are actively managed, diversified pools of non-investment-grade bank loans. They are structured investments where various tranches, or slices, of the structure carry different ratings, based on their protection from losses of the underlying pool of leveraged loans. The AAA rated tranche sits atop the capital structure and can absorb more losses than lower-rated tranches, down the line to the B rated and equity tranches, which are most exposed to losses."
    Bank-loans are non-investment-grade or not-rated. So, a pool of bank-loans would also be non-inv-grade. But then, the restructuring magic is applied to slice-and-dice the portfolio in tranches of various quality - AAA,...,BB,....equity tranch.
    M* shows JAAA as having only 7.65% as non-inv-gr & not-rated. Actually, funds are allowed to have 20-35% in off-label entities.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted latest ratings and flows to MFO Premium site using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 19 December 2025.
  • BDC Troubles, 2025
    BDC Troubles, 2025
    ".....Wall Street fund managers want 401(k) plans to include private credit, but similar products they have already sold to individual investors are in sharp decline this year.
    Some of the same money managers leading the charge to “democratize” private markets—like KKR and BlackRock—are among the worst performers in the publicly traded private-credit funds called business development companies.
    Business development companies, or BDCs, typically make high-interest loans to midsize corporations with junk credit ratings, using income from the loans to pay big dividends to their investors. They have become a popular way for fund managers to draw mom-and-pop investors into the booming private-credit industry. Demand for BDCs surged and the cash they manage has more than tripled since 2020 to about $450 billion, according to the law firm Mayer Brown.....
    The BDC selloff began this summer, after falling interest rates reduced income from the loans they own. Then, a $14 billion fund managed by KKR reported heavy losses from loans gone wrong, and a rash of alleged frauds in companies such as the auto supplier First Brands spooked investors. JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, who has a love-hate relationship with private credit, warned about more credit “cockroaches” lurking.....
    image
    ....."
    WSJ https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-private-credit-party-turns-ugly-for-individual-investors-287356f9
    Open at MSN https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-private-credit-party-turns-ugly-for-individual-investors/ar-AA1SLq0A
  • Why The Roaring 2020's Will Continue To Roar- Ed Yardeni Interview
    Just watched full video.
    - Ed's been in the investment business 40 years. (I've been investing for longer - over 55 years - but won't hold that against him.)
    - Ed draws many parallels between today's markets and the 1920s.
    - Importantly, many have predicted a recession during this decade but none has occurred, nor does he see one coming.
    - In the 1920s there were no recessions until the end of decade.
    - His biggest regret is not having poured 100% of his money into the NASDAQ and shut his eyes decades ago.
    - He sees the prolonged rapid rise in the equity markets as similar to the 1920s and highly stimulative. Should that upward momentum go into reverse, he concedes it could trigger a recession.
    - He notes friends and relatives are taking expensive cruises and inviting him along. He declines because he gets seasick easily. However, these friends' stock portfolios are growing faster than they can spend them down.
    - He sees even 4% on money market funds as stimulative. Savers are being rewarded much more now than 5-10 years ago when rates were near zero and then spend the extra money.
    - He makes brief reference to the resumption of QE (bond buying) by the Fed, characterizing it as creating "instant money" out of thin air.
    - He focuses on dramatic increases in productivity. In tech he remembers having to load data into computers by manually punching holes in cards.
    - He sees the Fed as having the back of investors. They learned their lesson in '07-'09 and now know how to prevent such disasters.
    - He mentions Trump's talk about sending out tariff rebate checks and appears to think such talk alone is stimulative; it's also emblematic of the degree to which the Administration will go to spur growth.
    - Overall, Ed sounds like a raging bull. He "can see" the S&P 500 at 10,000 by decade end.
    - However, his crystal ball appears clear at best only out to about a year. He often hedges by saying, "I'm assuming" ... I'm assuming ..."
    Thanks for linking these interviews @bee / Mack attracts some excellent guests. (It should go without saying that I don't necessarily agree with Ed Yardeni.)
  • jan effect 2026
    This article from M* seems to paint a different picture. I don't see the article discriminating between retail and institutional investors.
    Consistent with the past several months, flows favored taxable bonds, especially lower-risk areas within it, as well as international stocks over US equities. That said, US equity funds broke a six-month streak of outflows, tech sector funds posted their first outflows since April, and crypto assets lost some allure.
    snip\
    Taxable-bond funds continued to rake in assets in November, with 22 of 27 categories gathering assets amid a rate-cutting cycle. Their $51 billion of inflows marked a seventh straight month of inflows above $50 billion. In the past three years, total net assets in taxable-bond funds increased 38%.
    snip\
    US equity funds gathered a scant $3.4 billion in November, good enough to reverse a six-month streak of outflows.