12 July, 2024:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-12/bloomberg-real-yield-07-12-2024
Refused to load, at first. Had to turn off one of my (new) adblockers. Stinky poopy cruddy and fecal. But I swallowed hard and did it.
Wow. That blue dress...
Interviewees did not surprise. Sonali Basak quoted BARCLAY'S: we should right now SHORT 5-year Treasuries. Jaypers. No, I don't play in that pool. I'll stick to my known knitting.

@Shostakovich - I just plucked these two items quickly off a google search. However I am of the opinion that former CEO Eddie Lampert basically drove it into the ground. I never did understand why Berkowitz was so enamored with him other than he saw prospects for all the real estate controlled by Sears and later Seritage Growth Properties.
1) What happened to Sears Holdings?
It was the 20th-largest retailing company in the United States in 2015. It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on October 15, 2018, and sold its assets to ESL Investments in 2019. The new owner moved Sears assets to its newly formed subsidiary Transformco and after that, Sears Holdings Corporation was closed.
2) What caused the downfall of Sears?
The Downfall of Sears: A Failure to Embrace Digital ...
Sears' inability to execute on delivering these omnichannel experiences is just one of the many ways this former retail hero let down its once-booming customer base. Sears ultimately failed because of its reluctance to fully believe in the consequences of a rapidly changing retail landscape.

(I’m moving these comments first made in the euphoric markets thread to the “Buy / Sell” thread instead where they better belong.)
Sold all 3 stocks owned Friday. NSRGY: Averaged IN @$102 / OUT @$105.50. Decent 7-week gain. Also sold GHC and CNS which I reported buying on June 26. Both had risen 8-10% since I bought them (not bad for 17 days). Tired of the toys for now. Funds are so much easier to work with and vastly less risky. I think the first 2 stocks mentioned above have further to run. The third (CNS) appears to be overvalued - unless it’s under consideration as an acquisition - as is sometimes rumored.
Proceeds went to open a stake in GAA , a Cambria fund managed by Meb Faber, who also runs an etf with the symbol ”TOKE”. (What could possibly go wrong here?)
Added - I have also gradually reduced my equity exposure (as determined by Fido’s screener) from 45% a few weeks ago to about 37% as of today.

I own XMHQ but I am hesitant to recommend non-active in the SMID space. But SMID ETFs in a trading account are OK.

I think the X's make an interesting contrast to the pricey boutiques Barrons likes to tout. As yogi's charts point out, mayflies are in season.
I don't have a trading account, but there are reasons I gave FMIMX a headstart on the 5th, and won't hold momentum in the IRA. It should go without saying that people should stick to what they are comfortable owning. But as my grandfather used to say, if it's worth saying once its worth repeating from time to time.
I find XMHQ's thesis simple to understand. I suspect that many active managers consider the factors in their rule set. Of course, it only has a five-year track record to weigh.

Dinky linky:

XMHQ is a passively-managed portfolio of 80 securities that tracks the S&P mid-cap 400 Quality Index. The equities are selected based on the highest quality score, calculated by the following three equally-weighted fundamental factors: (1) return-on-equity (2) accruals ratio, and (3) financial leverage ratio. The index is being weighted by the total of its quality score multiplied by its market capitalization and is rebalanced semi-annually. Prior to June 24, 2019, the fund traded as Invesco Russell mid-cap Equal Weight ETF (EQWM) and followed the Russell mid-cap Equal Weight Index.

I'm supposed to be dealing with the garage, so enough procrastinating.

”There is speculative excess today relative to recent years.” - David Giroux, T. Rowe Price
(From Barron’s “Mid-Year Roundtable” July 15 issue)
Brilliant deduction, Watson!
Giroux’s Picks: Aurora Innovation / AUR, Danaher / DHR, Revvity / RVTY
And he still likes utilities.

XMHQ is something I will be keeping in the IRA. The current strategy is only good for the past five years. As of yesterday, it is leading SPY over the past five, three, one, and YTD periods. I also own it in the taxable. It is just about 15% tech.
FMIMX is another I am keeping in the IRA. It is currently the largest holding in my IRA since LC's are split between funds. The recent interest in small caps has bumped it ahead of FBALX and PRWCX for now.
I have been looking at XMMO for the taxable for a while. As with XMHQ, the strategy has only been in place the last five years. I don't know why M* and Lipper don't account for this, but they don't.
XMMO has also been running ahead of SPY for five years now, and well ahead over the last twelve months and YTD. Given its makeup, it is likely susceptible to capital gains as holdings graduate to the 500 index. It is 15% tech. I have been holding off due to an unpleasant experience with PTH, a momentum health fund.
Like a lot of SMID's these funds are coming off three-month doldrums and are slightly under 52 week highs.

Those hot SCG funds are for YTD (really, StockCharts 11/1/23-). But ANYTHING that beats SP500 these days attracts attention, especially SCG. Not all are recognized by StockCharts, but they are by MFO Premium.
https://i.ibb.co/L1yX6J0/Hot-SCG-YTD.png
https://i.ibb.co/hspBB3g/Not-Hot-SCG-3-Yrs.png

Didn't FAIRX take a big bet on Government backed bonds (Freddie/Fannie) that never panned out in the short term?
https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-fannie-freddie-idUSBRE94S19F20130529/
Seemed almost criminal the way the government reneged on their payment obligations on those bonds and BB (FAIRX) sued US Government as I recall.
Tens years later shareholders (maybe FAIRX)?) win in court:
significant-trial-victory-in-helping-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-shareholders-recoup-612-million-in-class-action

Info from Schwab 5/31 which may interest you.
Cash 16%
79 % Micro + SC
134 % Turnover
My thought - can they handle a large inflow of $$$ ?

@BaluBalu
SCV AUERX has been on our watch list for about a year. Probably shoulda bought it back then. The ER has always been a bit of a turnoff for us but the performance, like you said, has been very good for the past 5 years.
Considering it and a few others, including some SCG funds yogi listed in this week's Barron's summary.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-broadcom-meta-stocks-to-buy-roundtable-68451d5e?mod=djem_b_magazine_20240713
HISGX/HASGX
CTSAX/CTSIX
JSJAX/JSJIX
CWSAX/CWSGX
HRSRX/HRSMX
We have not reviewed any of these and have no comment on any of them yet.
Having however very recently jettisoned SCG NEAGX to reduce Tech exposure and risk, not sure we want to venture too deep back into SCs...yet. Will be looking for one with low Tech exposure. Note that AUERX has only 7.8% in Tech.
Also considering a broader stroke approach via equal weighted index funds RSP/VADAX, or simply doing nothing!
Let's see what next week holds RE: what CNBC this week dubbed, the (sic) "Great Rotation"!

The Week in Charts (07/12/24)
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:15 Topics
01:11 Down Goes Inflation
08:23 Here Come the Rate Cuts
16:50 The Rotation Heard Round the World
22:58 An All-Time High a Day
24:50 Last 10 Years: Fundamental Gains vs. Share Price Gains
27:25 Costco's Highest Valuation Ever
29:45 Nike's Biggest Drawdown Since 2000
31:29 The Most Important Chart in an Economy
Video

A quick update -
June Fund Facts and commentary are out.
https://marshfieldfunds.com/fund-facts/
https://marshfieldfunds.com/commentary/
25% cash
"While the cash we now hold . . . clips our wings a bit in terms of our ability to keep pace with the currents propelling today’s market, we don’t care. In taking the long view, we choose to embrace discretion over temporary gains, happy to exchange probabilistically fleeting prices for the optionality of cash and the relative safety of lower altitudes and reduced turbulence."
(Is there a middle finger image in there I missed?!)
Managers do not disclose how much they invest in the fund, except to state that they own more than $1M - pretty standard language. I was looking to find the actual amount invested / owned - a few fund managers do such a disclosure, though not common.
This fund managers also manage separate accounts with total assets of $4.8B spread over 5,200 accounts. The fund AUM is <$900M. Not sure why we had a discussion about the fund potentially closing around $1B - it does not really matter.
https://marshfieldfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-1229-Marshfield-SAI-final.pdf

@yogibearbull Thank you and to @msf for the input to this post.
Fidelity's VA. If you're curious, these are the FIDO VA investment choices (65). They provide return/ER information in general with this list and you may click the ticker for a bit more information. I think this is a decent presentation for the VA.

5 year chart: SCHW up +101.63% (M*.)
If I were looking in that direction, I'd have no qualms about dollar-cost-averaging into it.
July 7: Charles Schwab upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Was going to post in comparison thread , but a different question. Which stock would you buy ? Fido pays dividends twice a year & Chuck 4 times ! Fido looks to be at 5 year high, Chuck has room to grow or is it GO ! I didn't look deeper.

@MikeM - look at Page 35 of their 2023 10K (Total Net Revenues). 50% of their income is Net Interest Revenue, which includes uninvested client cash.
https://content.schwab.com/web/retail/public/about-schwab/SEC_Form10k_2023.pdf
The definition of Net Interest Revenue is right below the chart:

"Schwab’s primary interest-earning assets include cash and cash equivalents; cash and investments segregated; margin loans,which constitute the majority of receivables from brokerage clients; investment securities; and bank loans. "
... ok, so maybe not 50% is ALL from uninvested client cash (poor wording on my part, sorry) but the general consensus in the community is that by not paying interest on those funds Schwab, like many other banks, reaps a huge source of easy income / cost savings.

The TIAA VAs that yogi is writing about are the CREF annuities. TIAA invented variable annuities for the predecessor of 403(b) plans back in 1952. These qualified annuities are different from the non-qualified annuities that Catch is asking about.
Non-qualified annuities are funded with after tax dollars. From an IRS perspective they are similar to non-deductible T-IRAs. Like IRAs, they have a penalty if you take withdrawals before age 59½. One difference is that unless you annuitize, the non-deductible dollars are the last ones out, unlike non-deductible T-IRAs, where withdrawals are prorated between pre- and post-tax dollars.
If one disregards typically expensive optional bells and whistles (enhanced death benefits, GLWBs, etc.), VAs can be used as non-deductible T-IRAs after maxing out one's IRA contributions. Unlike T-IRAs, they do not have RMDs at age 73 or so; however they do require one to withdraw money or annuitize at an age specified in the contract (usually somewhere between 85 and 90 or 95).
VAs all carry a variety of charges. Each contract sets its own rates, just as each mutual fund sets its own fees. Morgan Stanley (see link below) does a good job of giving industry ranges. Read the paper if you care to know what these fees are for:
Mortality and Expense Risk (M&E): 0.20% - 1.80%
Administrative and Distribution Fees: 0.00% - 0.60%
Annual Fee: $30 - $50, waived with high enough balance (typically $50K)
Contingent Deferred Sales Chage (CDSC) - think "class B shares" - 0% to 9% declining
https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/msdotcom/en/assets/pdfs/wealth-management-disclosures/understandingvariableannuities.pdf
As you can see from these ranges, there are some VAs with low "wrapper" fees (the first three charges), and that don't charge a fee to get out (no CDSC). The Fidelity Personal Retirement Annuity mentioned by catch (0.25% wrapper fees) is one such annuity. Until 2019 Vanguard had its own VA. At the time I believe its wrapper fee was 0.30%. There are others.
Of note, especially since yogi mentioned TIAA, is TIAA Intelligent Variable Annuity. Its fees depend on the size of the annuity, ranging from 0.50% (plus $25 if under $25K) to 0.35% (at $100K) and 0.25% (at $500K). The kicker is that after ten years, the wrapper fee drops to 0.10% regardless of balance. See prospectus.
Schwab sells a low cost VA (Genesis Life from Protective Life) with a 0.45% wrapper fee. There are a few others (I recall Pacific Life being one); search for no-load variable annuities.
As with 401(k)s, one also needs to consider the costs of the underlying portfolios. Like mutual funds, these come in multiple share classes. So it's not enough to simply look at the VA portfolio fund, but its share class. For example, both Fidelity and TIAA sell Pimco VIT Commodity Real Return Strategy. But Fidelity sells the Administrative class shares (see the prospectus it links to) with 1.48% ER after waivers, while TIAA sells the institutional class shares with an ER of 1.33% (see its fund prospectus).
Last and probably least :-) are a couple of comments about M*'s coverage of VAs. When comparing star ratings (if you can find them) M* has two different sets of ratings. One is for the fund itself (could vary by share class), the other is for the fund within the VA, i.e. including the wrapper fees. Most funds will tend to get high star ratings in the low cost VAs simply because they cost about 3/4% less than in "average" VAs. All those 4 and 5 star ratings are relatively meaningless if what you're interested in is the risk-adjusted performance of the underlying funds.
Second is that one can still eke out some VA info from M*. One has to search for a hidden "ticker" symbol of the fund of interest. That ain't easy. For example, here's the google search I did for dfa VA international value portfolio. It turned up a FT page with a ticker-like value of 0P00003CY8. In M*'s portfolio manager, create a portfolio with this as the sole holding, you'll be able to get a little info, including its YTD gain of 9.48%. And if you have premium membership, you'll be able to x-ray that portfolio to find that it is 98% foreign, with 54% in LCV.
If you add "pdf" to the search string, you might even turn up a 2 page M* report on the portfolio, such as this one at Pacific Life. (Just check the date to make sure you found a current report.)

" in 2023 Schwab made 50% of their revenue from interest on uninvested cash"

@rforno, @Old_Joe, I don't find anywhere where the interest from uninvested cash is 50% of their revenue. I do find this, below, that lays out where the 50%+ interest income is coming from, but interest income comes from many sources.

Charles Schwab makes more than half of its money from interest earning assets like margin loans, investment securities, and bank loans.
According to page 146 of Schwab’s latest 10-K Form, they brought in roughly $6.5 billion of revenue from interest. The breakdown of interest earning assets and revenue are as follows:
Available for sale securities: $4.5 billion
Receivables from brokerage clients: $848 million
Bank loans: $545 million
Securities lending revenue: $334 million
Cash and investments segregated: $141 million
Cash and cash equivalents: $120 million

The order of how Schwab makes it's money.

#1. Interest Revenue (From Interest Earning Assets)
#2. Asset Management And Administration Fees
#3. Trading Revenue
#4. Bank Deposit Account Fees
#5. Other Revenue

Edit: Just a bet, but I'm guessing this model is very similar to a Fidelty or other major brokerage model, just a tweak in each of the revenue streams.
https://custommapposter.com/article/how-charles-schwab-makes-money-11-7b-in-revenue-business-model/1781

In the IRA: Have finally been able to sell GPGCX and VEXAX that were acquired in the fall of 2021.
Funny story, to me anyway, the day after I bought VEXAX I was reading a thread here wherein msf and Yogi had a chat about what a lousy index it was. Oy vey iz mir. I'll say one thing for it, it has recovered quicker than FSSNX and NUSC. :).
I'm pretty well setup where I want to be with equity and sector funds at current valuations, so most of the proceeds will go into XONE (or similar) after I give XMHQ a little bump.
There is some money set aside for slowly feeding into FDSVX on down days.
Other than that, I guess I could end up over 40% in bonds and cash unless this rotation rally skyrockets.
BTW, while I was there I gave a 15% shot to THOPX, MNHAX, and WCPNX as my bonds were already at 68% short duration with more money on the way.

According to Port Vis --- it did better than VOO in 21 & 22 (not losing as much in 22) but not as good in 23 or so far in 24. ~72% of its holdings are in the top 50 stocks out of a total of 103 holdings. It has a lower SD. It hasn't been around long enough for me to consider it. It's a little safer than VOO but my equity side is all in. If I think I need an equity fund with lower SD I need to look at my overall allocation.