TCAF vs SPY will be a fascinating battle to watch play out over time. Need more time = 5 years.
TCAF 15.74% avg annual return vs 16.56% SPY from inception 6/14/2023 thru March 31.
TCAF higher ER which compounds over time. Other metrics in the same ballpark thus far.

@FD1000, I really like the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow and use it in my financial model. It is subject to wild swings early on and then becomes more accurate as it gets more data. Currently, GDPNow is estimating GDP growth for the second quarter to be 2.55%, down from the 4.6% that you mentioned from June 2nd.
Imports are subtracted from the GDP estimate. Imports increased as investors raced to beat tariffs. Import data on FRED are updated through April. May and June data will have a major impact on GDP estimates.
As for inflation, the effects of tariffs should hit store shelves in July so estimates of inflation have a great deal of uncertainty. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Second Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters shows that economists estimate that inflation will peak at 3.4% next quarter and decline to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development released its OECD Economic Outlook, with estimates that inflation in the US will average 3.2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. In “2025 Economy Watch”, The Conference Board estimated that inflation would average 2.9% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. The International Monetary Fund database estimates that consumer prices in the US will be 3.0% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027.

In my rush to get this month's article out before taking a trip, I wrote, "Equity valuations are high, which are tailwinds for domestic stocks." Obviously, high valuations are a headwind for stocks.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2025/06/protecting-against-tariff-induced-inflation/
In regard to Professor Snowball's article, Aegis Value Fund (AVALX), I have been studying AVALX for the past several weeks. I like it for its small cap "deep" value approach and long-term performance. I purchased it this morning after a cup of coffee and its recent dip.

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Monday, 30 June 2025. Was able to get preview of next Saturday's full data drop by using MTD data for June returns.

As a follow up to a comment above about Katie S's statement, here's the quote. Correction, I posted she said this yesterday, she actually said it Monday:
"Our market internals are supportive of a bigger rebound," Stockton told clients in a note on Monday. "Sentiment has recovered meaningfully per the Fear & Greed Index, which is back above 25% after becoming deeply oversold earlier this month."
However, according to Stockton, a break above the S&P 500's 50-day moving average would likely be short-lived and ultimately give way to renewed weakness.
"Both the SPX and Nasdaq-100 Index have room to initial resistance at their 50-day MAs, respectively 5625 and 19680, breakouts above which would likely foster additional momentum before the rally fails," she said.

We now know that Stockton was wrong, and it wasn't the first time.
Since April 30, the SP500 made a new high instead of weakness as Stockton predicted.

"If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index? Most, if not all S&P 500 indexes pay dividends.
"Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most investors", see above. He's also stated on numerous occasions how he loves collecting dividends from his holdings, just doesn't believe in paying any.
"And finally, why are so many trying to sell you dividend strategies, while almost no one pushes the simple, boring, and proven SPY?
It says a lot." Yes, it says that not everyone thinks and/or invests like you say you do. Get over it.

This debate of divvies vs the SP500 is decades old.
Until the 1970s, many profitable companies paid dividends—it was the standard.
But then came the tech revolution. It started in the '70s, gained momentum in the '80s, and exploded in the decades that followed.
That shift proved something important: dividends are an outdated concept.
Tech companies showed that instead of paying out cash, they could reinvest in R&D, acquire smaller companies, and execute massive stock buybacks—delivering far more value through total return.
Today, total return is the only game in town.
Yes, some dividend-paying companies still perform well, but dividend stocks with low performance are useless—you’re just collecting crumbs while losing real value.
I always wonder:
If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index?
Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most investors, not a handpicked list of dividend payers?
Why do top managers worldwide hold a diversified mix, not just dividend stocks?
And finally, why are so many trying to sell you dividend strategies, while almost no one pushes the simple, boring, and proven SPY?
It says a lot.

Mostly entertainment. First 10 minutes is worth watching with Boaz Weinstein comparing playing Blackjack to trading CEFs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the US Misery Index on a monthly basis.
This index is calculated by adding the inflation rate to the unemployment rate.
As we know, the Fed's dual mandate stipulates price stability and maximum sustainable employment.
The Misery Index level was 6.555 on May 31 which is historically very low.
Also, the future economic impact of tariffs is highly uncertain.
Taking this all into consideration, there doesn't seem to be a compelling reason for the Fed to start raising rates.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_misery_index

After the recent rebalance, SCHD has become overweighted in energy (top sector at 19.4% vs only 3% for SP500), so I sold it, but may get back to it in future.

In 2000, Bobby Bonilla (NY Mets/MLB) put in $5.9 million in a deferred-income contract with the following terms:
Lump-sum $5.9 million.
Defer/hold for 10 years at 8%. The balance in 2010, $13.7 million.
Uniform payout over 25 years (2011-35) at 8% assumed rate. Annual payout $1.2 million/yr on July 1 (Bonilla Day).
TIAA Video (4:49) https://players.brightcove.net/958462654001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6374946029112

@Observant1, clicking on your link took me nowhere.
I wonder if this might be the study that you were looking for LINK It comes from The Journal of Wealth Management.

"One of the original studies on dividends in the early 1960s said people shouldn’t care.
Maximizing wealth is the point, and dividends are just part of investors’ total return.
Any cash a company pays out reduces its value by an equal amount."
"Data from the past 50 years compiled by Ned Davis Research shows the annualized return of dividend payers
in the S&P 500 was 9.2% compared with only 4.3% for non-payers, and with less choppiness too."
"Dividend payers would have left you with 10 times as much wealth before taxes.
Meanwhile, owning an equal amount of every stock in the S&P 500, including payers and non-payers,
returned just 7.65%."
May be paywalled.
https://marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-skuuhut-dhkydlthlk-r/

I don't usually post comments regarding The Week in Charts.
Since the first half of the year has been "crazy", I'll make an exception today.
What will the second half of the year bring for investors?
Fourth worst S&P 500 performance through first 66 trading days (-15.3%) of 2025.
Followed by tenth biggest 12-week S&P 500 total return (22.0%) from 1989-2025.
Biggest 12-week $VIX decline (-64.0%) from 1990-2025.
Frankly, I wasn't expecting this type of market behavior!
Why is the market pricing in three Fed rate cuts in 2025?
1) Stocks: all-time highs
2) Home Prices: all-time highs
3) Bitcoin: all-time highs
4) Money Supply: all-time highs
5) National Debt: all-time highs
6) CPI: averaging 4% per year since 2020—double the Fed's "target"
We'll get the non-farm payroll report this week but this isn't the jobs indicator to watch (subject to massive revisions). Better jobs indicator is 4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
Existing single family home inventory is at the highest level since June 2020.
New single family homes for sale are at their highest levels since November 2007.
Sellers outnumber buyers by nearly 500,000.
Perhaps this is an inflection point which will lead to a lower pace of home price appreciation?
Of course, affordability is still a major problem.
Home price inflation has far outpaced wage increases for many years.

FD1000,
I didn't realize you were an auto racing enthusiast.
I'm curious why the Yugo was your platform of choice.
These cars were slow and often criticized for poor safety and reliability.
Did you swap the engine and modify the suspension?
Perhaps an LSx V8 similar to the one referenced in the article below?
https://www.thedrive.com/news/18974/this-unassuming-yugo-has-an-lsx-v-8

Never in my life have I owned a Yugo. I owned Japanese Hondas and Toyotas for decades but recently changed to Korean.
Mona is one of these posters that can't accept my portfolio risk/reward success. It's all water under the bridge. All their grim forecasts turned out to be pretty wrong. Look who's laughing last.
Thanks for asking. :-)
====================
The chances I will ever buy an American or European vehicle are slim. If the Koreans would not be reliable because I have owned vehicles for 10 years, I would buy only Toyotas.
Last week I changed my insurance and saved over 20% on (Home+Umbrella+Autos). This time I used a local independent broker with hundreds of 5-star ratings from Google, and he did it in 10 minutes.
Replacing auto parts has been expensive for many years already.
Inflation is a great excuse for many companies, including insurance companies, to raise prices even more.

Received following message via secure email today.
Dear Observant1:
Thank you for contacting Fidelity Investments regarding your Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) form and documents. I am happy to help with this.
I see that you submitted multiple emails, so for ease of communication I will be replying on this one email.
I have submitted your documents to our processing team for review and to process. Please allow three to five business days for processing. The reference number for this request is: Wxxxxxx-30JUN25.
When adding new bank information for Electronic Funds Transfers (EFTs), we send a prenote or test transaction to your bank in order to verify the accuracy of the information provided. This prenote takes four business days to complete before the feature is activated.
As for your feedback, we require a handwritten ink signature for security and compliance reasons.
It was a pleasure to assist you today, Observant1. I know you have many options when it comes to investing and I appreciate you choosing Fidelity. Have a nice day!

"Did you get a better rate than the ultrashort bond fund, by purchasing the 6-month T-Bills?
They appear to be at 4.256% today.
Are you trying to head off a future drop in shorter term instruments? "
The 30-Day SEC Yield and TTM Yield for the ultrashort bond fund
are a bit higher than the 4.256% rate for 26-week T-Bills.
I executed this trade primarily to defer paying taxes for the corresponding sum.
The only individual bonds that I've purchased have been Treasuries and I-Bonds¹.
Thus far, Treasuries were bought "new" via auction and not in the secondary market.
This is easy to do via Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab (probably other brokers as well).
¹ Non-institutional investors may encounter large bid/ask spreads when trading other types of bonds.

@Observant1 Thanks.
Did you get a better rate than the ultrashort bond fund, by purchasing the 6-month T-Bills? They appear to be at 4.256% today. Are you trying to head off a future drop in shorter term instruments?
I have never bought individual bonds, except some rare forays into I-Bonds.

The Week in Charts (06/30/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:20 Topics
01:14 The Market Makes Fools of the Soothsayers
03:00 There Is No Impossible in Markets
08:37 All-Time Highs Again
10:20 3 Rate Cuts in 2025?
14:45 The Most Important Jobs Indicator to Watch
17:47 An Inflection Point in the Housing Market
23:14 The Office Conversion Boom
Video
Blog

Bought PIMIX last week on Friday. And again today at COB.
Bought shares of an INTL index fund at COB on Friday - current equity now ~58%.
Bought some PFN to add to an existing position, used proceeds of some preferred stock that I sold. Still sitting on a large amount of MMF and ultrashort bonds.
Total cash equivalents now at ~27%. Bond CEF/OEF at 15%.
This is very conservative for me historically. I aim to get to 60/15/25 short term.
Watching inflation/rates/international equities.