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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A quarter billion just doesn't buy what it used to
    https://cnbc.com/2025/06/30/solar-stocks-fall-as-trump-bill-taxes-components-from-china.html
    “The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted on X over the weekend. “Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”
    What did this guy think would happen? That his money would buy influence? That only works with Middle East countries. He is surely a horrible judge of character. Who does such legislation impact the most? A lot of jobs in clean energy are in places like Texas and Florida. Interestingly, China has been moving more towards clean energy lately. And might end up eating our lunch in this arena, as we pivot to coal. Apparently, in a world hungry for renewables, we are opting to sit this one out.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/30/climate/china-clean-energy-power.html
  • Schwab to roll out broader overnight trading platform
    @hank, no but people could trade stocks with 5% margin equity then. Pump-&-dump probably comes from that era - buildup excitement to create a rush to buy, then pull the rug to wipeout overleveraged people.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    My memory is that a Yugo was indeed propelled off the Mackinaw Bridge in ‘89 by wind after perhaps veering out of control. I happened to be on my way up to the cottage that night and northern Michigan winds, even on the mainland, were horrific. A 35 year old downstate lady died. But present day accounts dispute the role of wind in the accident. A local car audio shop where I’ve had work performed has a Yugo on display. As basic as you can get. Yes, it’s what I’d imagine someone as successful as FD to drive.. :)
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    "Goldman Sachs wrote in a note earlier this month that the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports suggest tariffs had “modest” effects on prices in May. The analysts expect the bulk of tariff-induced inflation to show up between June and August."
    "Kelly thinks it will take a bit longer, with the full effects of tariffs showing up in inflation data around September or October. 'The tariffs are being paid on the inventory coming in,' he says. 'That inventory is going to make its way into and out of the warehouses onto a truck, off to a wholesaler, and eventually to retail shelves.' On top of the time this takes, he says retailers also need to work through inventory imported pre-tariffs, which may not be marked up."
    "The effect, whenever it manifests, is likely to be significant. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, says he expects tariffs to add 0.75-1.00 percentage points to year-over-year inflation, with the PCE inflation rate peaking roughly by the end of 2025. Kelly puts the figure even higher at 0.9-1.5 points."
    “Bank of America, which expects core PCE inflation to have risen roughly in line with consensus estimates, wrote in a report: 'Overall, this would be a good number for the Fed, but it’s hard to take too much signal, given the uncertainty tariffs pose around the inflation path.'
    https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-report-forecast-still-just-tip-tariff-iceberg
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    It is not that we cannot do it, eventually. But, it will take time to get it all figured out on a much larger scale, and cost much, much more per unit. And while the cars may last 10-15 years, problems are inevitable as we try to do it all on home turf. Automotive service these days can get very pricey. And whatever we produce will, likely be uncompetitive in foreign markets, on price. Less units sold equals higher cost per unit.
    My guess is that Trump loses interest in a year or so, after a few questionable "deals", and calls it a day, basically moving on to other inanity. Some foreign automakers will increase output on U.S. soil. That is not a bad thing, to be fair.
  • July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 27 June 2025.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The best part (and takeaway) is that there is a company making cellphones in the U.S., and the phones are $2000 each, and not particularly good. Now extrapolate this to what you are going to pay for a 100% American made automobile, parts and assembly. And the potential QC issues of trying to manufacture everything here. Cars that cost 4x what they do now, and are rife with defects while they work out the flaws in 5 to 10 years.
    Isn’t that awesome ? We prefer import care when we rent they in travel, where they are much move reliable. Can you afford spending $60,000 on a new car and having to replace it every 3 years ?
    The movie “Gung-ho” depicts American auto manufacturing (to a Japanese parent company). These is no QC on part sourcing, assembling, and testing, before the cars are rolling of the floor.
    michael keaton movie car manufacturer
    My first car was a Camry assembled in Kentucky with Japanese components. In was a nice touch to see a check list (in the glove compartment) with 50 items that were signed by individuals who carried they out. In was a very reliable that ran flawlessly for 20 years until our family grew.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 7/1/25
    Great comments by @msf.
    TIAA has been changing with times. It has expanding into corporate 401ks, and as @msf mentioned, opened previously restricted TIAA IRA to all - TIAA Traditional (SVs), private real estate T-REA (not to be confused with REITs), CREF VAs.
    I call TIAA "Vanguard" of annuities. Many think that annuities are expensive, but the giant CREF Stock VA (a $125 billion fund you haven't heard about) has low-ERs to beat many regular/taxable funds: QCSTRX 40 bps, QCSTPX 30, QCSTIX 26. TIAA follows a combo approach so that portions of the portfolio are purely-indexed, enhanced-indexed and active. I think that IRAs can use only QCSTRX (40 bps) regardless of how much money you accumulate/rollover - may be that will change in future too*.
    Thanks to @Charles, since 2024, these tickers are also recognized by MFOP.
    *Edit/Add. I found that after 8/1/25, R3 classes will be used for CREF VAs in TIAA IRAs, so it will be QCSTIX (26 bps). See pg A3 in link below,
    https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/c/cref_rules_of_the_fund.pdf
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 7/1/25
    Until recently TIAA and CREF portfolios were only through work or to relatives.
    https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/e/eligibility_flyer_external.pdf (See green box)
    In March, TIAA opened up these investments to everyone via IRAs.
    https://www.tiaa.org/public/about-tiaa/news-press/press-releases/2025/03-10
    That makes it worth paying more attention to TIAA Traditional IRA rates. Also available now are TREA (TIAA Real Estate) and CREF portfolios including CREF Stock. I've always been fond of it (1/3 foreign, 2/3 domestic), though these days one can find similar funds, e.g. TQGEX.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The whole American Made schtick is funny. Trump leases bandwidth on existing cellular networks and tries to sell cheap re-branded phones for $500 claiming they are American made. It turns out that these low-end phones are 100% Chinese made and they are caught out immediately, thus removing the claims from their website. Now trying to push cheap Chinese phones onto their MAGA base.
    The best part (and takeaway) is that there is a company making cellphones in the U.S., and the phones are $2000 each, and not particularly good. Now extrapolate this to what you are going to pay for a 100% American made automobile, parts and assembly. And the potential QC issues of trying to manufacture everything here. Cars that cost 4x what they do now, and are rife with defects while they work out the flaws in 5 to 10 years.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The U.S. auto industry currently uses foreign manufacturing to produce
    lower-value parts while higher-end components are produced domestically.
    However, President Trump wants cars to be 100% made in America
    and has proposed 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts.
    Car prices could increase by as much as 15% and U.S. vehicle sales
    could decline by up to 20% according to some estimates.
    Despite the overall decline in U.S. manufacturing, the auto industry is huge.
    Long-term impacts to the industry could be devastating.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/how-trump-s-tariffs-could-upend-the-auto-industry-and-raise-the-price-of-your-next-car/ar-AA1Hrqw2
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Considering that a 2.5% annual inflation rate (rather average) would add up over 10 years to a cumulative 30%, In context, that is not particularly high. And people have been opting for more expensive, content-laden trucks/SUVs over time, pushing up total ownership costs.
    It is important to note that total cost of ownership should not be confused with purchase price. Car prices, like-for-like, have not gone up 30% in a decade. A 2025 Honda Accord base MSRP is only about $3000 more than a 2015 Accord was. Which is closer to 12% over 10 years. Well below even muted inflation rates.
    I wonder what impact tariffs will have on new car prices over time? I guess we will have to come back to that in a year or two.
  • FOMC Statement
    Gman57. That takes my breath away. I hate when that happens. What state?
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-autos-cars-5ac68ee8?mod=hp_LONGREADER_A_1
    (Subscription required)
    How Trump’s Tariffs Could Upend the Auto Industry—and Raise the Price of Your Next Car
    Trump wants an all-American car. U.S. vehicle sales could plunge by as much as 20% if he uses massive levies to get one.
  • When government controls the means of production...
    DJT's destruction of the NIH NSF biomedical and Scientific research apparatus alone will classify him as the worst President in US History.
    $150 Billion to ICE to fracture families and communities and deport law abiding people
    NIH Budget cut 40% to $29 Billion. These are insane actions.
    The "DEI" portion of those cuts are less than $900 million
    Don't plan to survive your cancer in the future. Cancer research cut 35%.
    I personally know a US leading Melanoma researcher is moving to Canada. His grants were suspended 1/22, by DOGE fiat
    DEI is just another racist dog whistle. Blame the woman, the brown/black guy, the immigrant, or other minorities. You know who really hated the notion of DEI? The Master Race folks. Gypsy, Jew, gay, black, brown - round up the usual suspects! The same people that White Supremacy groups would like to do away with, even today, in America.
    For every incompetent DEI hire that anyone can identify, I will find an equal proportion of incompetent or lazy people with no special status at all. The whole game of trying to portray people as evil or criminal or lazy, so as to make discrimination palatable, has been around for ever.
    As far as American exceptionalism goes, it appears we want our competitors, adversaries and even our enemies, to lure or retain the best and brightest, who used to immigrate here. Those folks that we are now shunning or driving away, are the STEM geniuses and entrepreneurs and researchers and doctors who helped make us great. Cletus, with his opioid addiction is not going to be replacing them by some form of default.
  • When government controls the means of production...
    @DrVenture You said it!
    This administration is rife with examples of socialist tendencies and attempts to hinder free markets. Trump wanted to "buy" a 5G cell phone manufacturer, when he discovered that the U.S. did not have one. Which would be government owned then.
    He DEMANDS that companies not raise prices in response to higher input costs, essentially using his bully-pulpit to attempt to set prices across corporate America < that one is huge! Government price controls through threats.
    He insists that U.S. oil companies produce more product to satisfy his demands for lower gas prices, even though that would hurt those companies investors and business model. They ignore him, of course, but the threat remains. This is more attempted price manipulation via threat.
    Tariffs on $3.4 trillion in imports are being used to control buying habits. They are being used to make buying higher priced alternatives more palatable, by removing the price advantages of certain imports. Even when, in most cases, alternatives either do not exist, or are still not attractive. More government market manipulation!
    Tariffs are also be utilized to force other countries to buy our products, again through threat and price manipulation.
    Universities are being bullied into changing the way they do business. Make no mistake, higher education in America is a business. To alter their admittance policies, course offerings and policies regarding free speech. Market/business (free market) manipulation again by government threat of financial consequences.
    Forcing law firms to provide free services, and hindering their application of free choice in choosing their clientele is another obvious example of free market interference.
    List any other "anti-free market" activities you may be aware of. They will no doubt keep coming.
  • When government controls the means of production...
    DJT's destruction of the NIH NSF biomedical and Scientific research apparatus alone will classify him as the worst President in US History.
    $150 Billion to ICE to fracture families and communities and deport law abiding people
    NIH Budget cut 40% to $29 Billion. These are insane actions.
    The "DEI" portion of those cuts are less than $900 million
    Don't plan to survive your cancer in the future. Cancer research cut 35%.
    I personally know a US leading Melanoma researcher is moving to Canada. His grants were suspended 1/22, by DOGE fiat