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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Small Caps
    As @Crash and @yogibearbull mentioned,
    Henry Ellenbogen left PRNHX back in 2019. Since then, PRNHX has struggled big time.
    I found this recent Apple podcast (1 day ago), @ the 4 minute mark Mr Ellenbogen is introduced.
    The host describes Mr Ellenbogen as a manager who is constantly looking for the rare "1% of companies that move the market". So sorry he moved away from managing PRNHX, but hoping this podcast might provide some crumbs to fuel my search for finding "1% of the mutual funds" that do a great job of finding "1% of the companies that move the market".
    podcast/henry-ellenbogen-man-versus-machine
  • Why The Roaring 2020's Will Continue To Roar- Ed Yardeni Interview
    Yardeni is similar to Prof Sigel
    Siegel basically has 2 long term opinions
    1) Mr. Siegel is stocks perma bull. He has 2 main predictions annually: stocks will make money next year.
    2) Stocks will make more than bonds.
    The above is not a brain surgery, just common sense BUT NOTHING MUCH because
    1) The SP500 was up over 80% in the last 40 years. He has no clue what % the SP500 will go up or what years will go down. Generic 10% range predictions don't mean much
    2) Of course, stocks will make more than bonds, they have that for decades, especially when the 10 year treasury went to 0.5% in 2020...duh.
    Stocks:
    As expected, Siegel was wrong every down year
    1) 03/2001 (link): about stocks "they are probably a better bet now than they were a year ago. You can buy them at cheaper prices.” FD: from 03/2001 to 09/2002, which is about 1.5 years, the SP500 lost over 22%, see (link)
    2) 2008 (link) "I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008." FD: The SP500 fell more than 50% and finish 2008 at -37%.
    3) 2018 (link): U.S. equities will end the year with gains of as much as 10%. FD: the SP500 was negative at -4.5%.
    4) 2019(link) "Jeremy Siegel says stocks could rally between 5 and 15 percent in the new year." FD: the SP500 made 31.5% more than double of what Siegel predicted.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Of the US equity funds I track, SPY is 30th YTD. It has really fallen off the pace recently. QQQ is #8.
    Records look better on baseball cards.
    Are you suggesting that the SP500 must be the best index for 1 week,and 1-6 months.
    It is one of the best indexes to buy and hold for years.
    Are there many investors who would complain about making 15+% in any year.
    BTW, if switching categories work for you. It's great.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    I explained many times why I haven't held stocks.
    We have plenty of money, we can live on CD until death.
    I achieved 11+% average annual performance since I retired in 2018 without losing more than 1% from any top.
    It looks pretty good to me as a main goal and beat 50/50 hands down.
    Continue trolling DrVenture.
    If Marks was so great why didn't you sell last January?
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    I explained many times why I haven't held stocks.
    We have plenty of money, we can live on CD until death.
    I achieved 11+% average annual performance since I retired in 2018 without losing more than 1% from any top.
    It looks pretty good to me as a main goal and beat 50/50 hands down.
    Continue trolling DrVenture.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Remember folks that you are dealing with Jack Horner here. He will twist everything to arrive at "What a good boy am I!". By his own admission he is rarely involved with stocks, meaning he just basically sat out a three year bull run that was worth ~65% on the S&P. Despite "the market telling (everyone) what to do".
    Who is interested in opinions/advice from people who achieved less than half of that? In whatever manner that they rationalize it?
    A really good question is why anyone shows up over and over (across many forums) to brag and argue, despite clear signs that he annoys everyone?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought the 5-yr TIPS on the secondary market CUSIP 91282CPH8; coupon rate of 1.125%; real yield of 1.40% and a price of 98.73. Still considering adding to the 5-yr through the auction on Thursday, but hedged with the secondary mkt.
    Update: submitted request for the 5-yr TIPS auction in our IRAs
  • Powerful grifters and the global investing markets
    Not that investing markets 'grifting' is new; but that the 'connections' are different this time. One may find forward valuations to continue to be out of 'norms'. We've used a variety of technical indicators over the years; as well as the 'smell/sentiment' of things for investing. As long as the front running/insider information continues to provide large profits, the markets may continue to seem 'out of control'. It's when the music stops for the 'musical chairs' that remains the tough spot to discover.
    The below is an AI sort for a variety of search terms regarding grifting and the markets. I've chosen this overview. Some of the descriptions can be placed into the grifter schemes that have been hatched this year, and continue now.
    My inflated 2 cents worth,
    Catch
    Grifters and powerful financial actors have historically manipulated global stock markets by exploiting speculative manias, technological gaps, and regulatory loopholes. In 2025, these dynamics are increasingly driven by rapid news cycles and advanced trading technologies.
    Common Methods of Market Manipulation
    Pump and Dump Schemes: Promoters inflate the price of a stock through false or misleading positive statements to sell their cheaply purchased stock at a higher price.
    Insider Trading: Trading based on material, non-public information, often involving high-level corporate or political figures.
    Financial Legerdemain: Using complex accounting or misdirection to hide a company's true financial state, similar to a magician's sleight of hand.
    Exploitative Technology: Utilizing high-frequency trading (HFT) and "dark pools" to gain millisecond advantages over retail investors, which some critics describe as a "rigged" system.
    Social Media Gamification: Transforming independent market participants into coordinated "gangs" that can be easily manipulated by viral misinformation.
    Influence of Powerful Actors
    Political Leaders: Global markets in 2025 show extreme sensitivity to political rhetoric. For example, comments on trade policies or tariffs can cause massive instant fluctuations in worldwide indices.
    Large Institutional Players: Firms like Vanguard, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs hold significant portions of global equity, and their shifts in "risk appetite" can trigger massive global sell-offs.
    Historical and Contemporary Parallels
    The 1901 Boom: Early 20th-century promoters legally took massive cuts (up to 40%) from stock offerings, a template for modern "bull market grift".
    The Dot-Com and Crypto Eras: Cycles of "greed and fear" consistently produce frauds like Enron or modern unregulated crypto Ponzi schemes that collapse when liquidity dries up.
    Current Concentration: As of late 2025, the top 1% of households control approximately 50% of all US household equity, illustrating a structural accretion of wealth that grifters often exploit by targeting the "gap" between classes.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    EWS is going nowhere fast. Bought just a few more again today. It may very well turn out to be a dividend producer, more than any sort of growth holding. Non-diversified, concentrated portfolio. Yield = between 3%-4%. I was too late for the huge run-up, already this year.
    16 December, '25 EDIT to add: Twice-yearly dividend recorded today, to be paid on 19th December. So, far, the amount is worth about half a tank of gas for me. I'll add, in dribs and drabs.
  • Any suggestions for investing for a new great-granddaughter?
    The OP didn't mention 529 plans.
    I'ld say 1/3 total US. !/3 total ex-US. and 1/3 global tech.
    YMMV.
  • Any suggestions for investing for a new great-granddaughter?
    529 is a great suggestion. I am in the UT plan which has great Vanguard and DFA options at low cost.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    FD said
    "Marks called for a bubble on 1/7/2025. It's already more than 11 months.
    Ifs and buts don't count, only actual performance does.
    Bottom line: Marks was wrong. If you listened to him, you missed a lot of performance."
    Nope. What's clear is that you were wrong.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Marks as always leaves the door open just in case he is wrong.
    In the memo he discussed a bubble at length.
    He also said in the beginning
    "All of my observations will be generalities, but I’m hopeful they’ll be relevant nonetheless."
    What is the purpose of discussing a bubble in 01/2025 and reminds us about a similar call 25 years?
    There is only one conclusion.
    He was wrong !!
  • Any suggestions for investing for a new great-granddaughter?
    Congratulations!
    I just ran a calculation FWIW: $500 invested on your great granddaughter's birth date and allowed to compound over time would be worth $45,490.28 when she reaches age 65. That assumes a one-time initial deposit, quarterly compounding and a modest 7% annual rate of return. Results may vary. But this gives some idea of the power of compounding over long periods. Go for it!
    The calculator linked below also accommodates investing equal sums thru monthly contributions which appears to be your preference,
    Calculator
  • House Bill Omits BDC Fee Disclosures
    H.R. 3383 was proposed by Representative Ann Wagner (R - MO).
    Representative Ann Wagner's Top Contributors, 2023 - 2024
    https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/ann-wagner/summary?cid=N00033106
    Clients Lobbying on H.R.3383: Increasing Investor Opportunities Act
    https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/bills/summary?cycle=2025&id=hr3383-119
    The Securities & Investment industry donated the second most amount of money (behind "retired")
    to Representative Wagner from 2023 to 2024.
    The Investment Company Institute, Ameriprise Financial, Franklin Resources,
    and the Securities Industry & Financial Markets Assn. (among several others) lobbied on behalf of H.R. 3383.
    I'm sure this is all just a mere coincidence!
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    FD - do yourself a favor and go re-read the memo I linked at the beginning of this discussion only this time put on your thinking and comprehension hats if you have them.
    At no point in the memo did Marks call for a bubble. If you can find it in the memo please do share. Here is what he did say:
    "As I said at the start of this memo, I’m not an equity investor, and I’m certainly no expert on technology. Thus, I can’t speak authoritatively about whether we’re in a bubble. I just want to lay out the facts as I see them and suggest how you might think about them . . . just as I did 25 years ago."
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Is 2025 over already? How long did you have to search for that? Maybe if Mr. Marks knew that the tech billionaires were going to pay for favors he might have hedged his remarks.
    2026 is two weeks away, and even that’s irrelevant.
    Marks called for a bubble on 1/7/2025. It's already more than 11 months.
    Ifs and buts don't count, only actual performance does.
    Bottom line: Marks was wrong. If you listened to him, you missed a lot of performance.
    I added him to my long list of bad predictions by the "experts."
    This is what I posted on my site (link). See the last posts.

    On 1-7-2025 Howard Marks published his memo (www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch).
    If the market doesn’t finish 2025 with at least -20%, Marks will have earned a spot on the "wall of shame."
    A decline of 5-15% is "normal.". Bubble prediction calls for a lot more.
    Now, we are going to wait.
    On 12-15-2025: It's Dec 15, 2025, and the SP500 is up about 17% which is a nice performance.
    It's pretty clear that Marks was wrong.