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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Small Caps
    Thanks for the feedback @raqueteer. hard to find a consistently strong performing fund in the small cap space if you look at the 1 3 5 and 10 year time frames that also has good downside protection. Large cap has so strongly outperformed small cap over last ten years. Best example I have found that meets these attributes is PKSAX. AVUV and CALF look interesting.
  • Navigating the new 529 to Roth rollover (Secure Act 2.0) 2024 begin year.
    A couple of somewhat obvious questions come to mind:
    - What defines a "plan" (for the 15 year rule requirement)? "It is unclear whether this 15-year period restarts when there is a beneficiary change", according to one site. Another suggests that "changing designated beneficiaries ... will likely restart that 15-year clock."
    https://www.daypitney.com/insights/publications/2023/06/fog4-secure-2-0-permits-rollovers-529-plans-roth-iras/
    https://www.savingforcollege.com/article/roll-over-529-plan-funds-to-a-roth-ira
    Another wrinkle to this question: what happens when you roll over the 529 plan from one state to another? With a Roth-to-Roth rollover, the Roth clocks don't restart. But this is a new rule and involves a 529-to-Roth rollover.
    - Will your state follow the federal rules? Or will it tax the 529 rollover as a distribution?
    While no one is sure which states will play along with federal rules and which ones will choose to tax 529 to Roth IRA rollovers, California is one state that seems likely to levy income taxes on these rollovers. This is based on the fact the state hasn't updated their rules to match federal laws regarding 529 plans, including ones built on student loans and using 529 plan funds for private K-12 tuition.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2023/11/21/warning-ability-to-convert-529-funds-to-roth-ira-could-be-problematic/?sh=5accc8a04abc.
    Maybe there's something more definitive. These are just questions, not answers.
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued
    Why use M* screener at all when Fidelity is a robust one, includes ETFs, and free?
    Because Fidelity's excludes funds that Fidelity doesn't carry.
    This is good to know!
    When screening mutual funds, I often rely on Fidelity's mutual fund screener.
    Portfolio Visualizer (PV) is used primarily to backtest portfolios.
    In the future, I'll use both the Fidelity and PV mutual fund screeners.
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued
    Why use M* screener at all when Fidelity is a robust one, includes ETFs, and free?
    Because Fidelity's excludes funds that Fidelity doesn't carry.
    For example, in the global small/mid M* category, the Fidelity screener returns 74 OEFs (including closed and leveraged funds) and 15 ETFs; Portfolio Visualizer's screener returns 138 OEFs (same as M* Investor's screener), 14 ETFs, and 7 CEFs. Figures are for share classes, not distinct funds.
    (FYI the ETF it misses is FIXT, an ETF that M* rates gold at the top of the page, but silver in the text that says it was downgraded.)
    Part of the difference is that Fidelity doesn't sell all share classes of funds, e.g. AGCVX (investor class shares) are NTF at Schwab but not sold at Fidelity, so they don't show up in the screener. Since Fidelity does sell the institutional shares AGCSX (albeit w/TF and $5M min), at least the fund shows up in its screener.
    Other funds are completely missing, e.g. TSYNX. This is available even at Vanguard NTF. Not at Fidelity, so not reported by the screener. Not recommending it, just observing that its launch was written up at MFO in 2018.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    ”I could never understand why anyone has more than 7-8 funds (they are usually the ones who say, there is no right number). You go over 10 funds and you are over-diversified.”

    Silly remark from FD. You’ll have a hard time documenting that the number of funds or portfolio holdings alone has an appreciable effect on average return over time.
    One example: Leuthold’s LCR (ETF) sports a gold rating at M* and straight 5’s at Lipper (except for 3 on expense). This ETF invests in a basket of other ETFs - currently numbering 32, Maybe you know more about managing assets than these guys do?
    Sounds like you might be referring to me in the quoted snippet. I did say the number of funds doesn’t matter in itself. I did not say I have 10 funds. (Go back and read it.) I have only 8 funds which should elicit your great approval as that falls inside your ordained allowable number. There are 2 additional non-fund components in my 10/10 portfolio. One consists of assorted cash holdings (totaling 10%) The other is a group of individual equities in which I have a high conviction. (10% in aggregate)..
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued
    I think M* advisor workstations/terminals cost around $10,000.
    It cannot get those kind of revenues from the old M* Premium or the new M* Investor.
    Those who haven't visited M* Discussions recently will find several discussion/Q&A areas now for its professional products. M* now sees it as M* online customer support. So, there is still one lone click for Investing Forums that takes one to the neglected, hard-to-navigate M* Discussions areas. It's also private now, so stuff isn't linkable and login is required just to look.
    Ironically, years ago M* offered lots of free tools to us, but after lots of free debugging and feedback by us, it has moved those to its professional offerings. Its ambition is to become a mini-Bloomberg. It can claim that it offers many features much cheaper than Bloomberg terminals.
    I still hang around M* for TIAA Forum (there is also a Facebook alternative) , etc, but I have moved on for portfolio monitoring and general postings.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    I could never understand why anyone has more than 7-8 funds (they are usually the ones who say, there is no right number). You go over 10 funds and you are over-diversified.
    What usually happens with over 10 funds? you are not sure and/or you have owned lagging categories for years. You already know that the SP500 beat most funds over 15-20 years so why do you own so many funds? This was my initial start (1995-2000) investing 90+% in VG Total index and the rest in VG growth.
    If you are into more analysis looking for generic funds with great risk/reward how can you have more than 8 funds? How many great ideas can you have? I never had more than 5-6 funds.
    While most think that you can't find great funds that have done well for years, history proved them wrong. PRWCX has done it. PIMIX did it for 9-10 years.
    More at (https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/2/generic-ideas)
    Let's use the above link. How about running a screener every 4-6 funds and buying good risk/reward funds? This way you are not stuck in a lagging category/fund for years.
    First, I select allocation+international equity+US equity (link)
    Second, select the risk tab on top, then Sharpe + sort Sharp (link)
    Third, select overview again (https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/overview/sharpeRatio3Yr/desc/1?assetClass=BAL%2CDSTK%2CISTK&category=AL%2CCA%2CCH%2CCV%2CDP%2CEI%2CEM%2CES%2CFA%2CFB%2CFG%2CFQ%2CFR%2CFV%2CIH%2CJS%2CLB%2CLG%2CLS%2CLV%2CMA%2CMB%2CMG%2CMQ%2CMV%2CPJ%2CRI%2CSB%2CSG%2CSV%2CSW%2CTA%2CTD%2CTE%2CTG%2CTH%2CTI%2CTJ%2CTK%2CTL%2CTN%2CTU%2CTV%2CWB%2CWG%2CWV%2CXM%2CXQ%2CXY&order=assetClass%2Ccategory).
    The above list is sorted by Sharpe from best (high) to low. All you have to do is look at performance for YTD,1,3,5 years.
    Funds to consider:
    GOODX=MC value
    HIMDX=SC value
    FMILX=LC value
    BISMX/BISAX=SC+MC international value
    SP500 is always a choice
    Just 5 funds and good diversification.
    ============
    MFO also has a great screener and Charles Lynn Bolin posted great articles about it.
  • Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close

    (Snip)
    2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
    9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
    1-year return: +6.74%.
    Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
    Yield: 6.52%. Payout ratio: 728.85% is NUTS. What gives with that?

    @Crash, payout ratio uses “dividends” divided by GAAP earnings.
    The best measure of “earnings” (or distributable cash flow) for REITs (due to accounting rules like depreciation etc. which don’t affect cash flow) is funds from operation/adjusted funds from operation (FFO/AFFO)….a quick Google search found PSTL’s AFFO is $1.01, with a distribution of 95 cents. That’s a mid 90’s% payout ratio, which doesn’t allow much retained capital for growth (meaning debt or equity issuance will be required for growth).
    Sorry if you know all of this! :)
    Happy New Year
    A good explanation. Thank you!
    EDIT to add: Just remembered that REITS are REQUIRED to pay-out something like 90% of profits, yes? So, then......
  • Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close

    (Snip)
    2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
    9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
    1-year return: +6.74%.
    Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
    Yield: 6.52%. Payout ratio: 728.85% is NUTS. What gives with that?
    @Crash, payout ratio uses “dividends” divided by GAAP earnings.
    The best measure of “earnings” (or distributable cash flow) for REITs (due to accounting rules like depreciation etc. which don’t affect cash flow) is funds from operation/adjusted funds from operation (FFO/AFFO)….a quick Google search found PSTL’s AFFO is $1.01, with a distribution of 95 cents. That’s a mid 90’s% payout ratio, which doesn’t allow much retained capital for growth (meaning debt or equity issuance will be required for growth).
    Sorry if you know all of this! :)
    Happy New Year
  • Small Caps
    Thought that I would bump this discussion back up the thread to see if anyone has found any additional small cap funds they are considering adding. I plan to continue holding PKSAX and NEAGX. Might add to PKSAX in the new year in 401K. Also will probably add DSMC which @BenWP kindly brought to my attention. Thanks and happy New Year to all.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    Some thought my 10% per fund too high. Than @Roy chimes in @ 95% with Giroux.
    All my funds are team-managed. None of them can compete with a rock star.
    image
    ”Well, it's one for the money, Two for the show, Three to get ready, Now go, cat, go!”
  • Bruce Fund (BRUFX)
    The Sept 2023 portfolio has 35.9% in fixed income and cash. That breaks down into:
    2.6% a STRIPS maturing in 2036 (12 year duration),
    1.0% a STRIPS maturing in 2041 (17 year duration),
    1.1% a STRIPS maturing in 2049 (25 year duration),
    2.8% health care convertible bonds maturing in 2024 (or earlier, in default),
    28.4% money market funds
    That's a barbell, with nearly all the weight on the short end (including the MMF). Very conservative. Just a little speculation on interest rates falling, in which case the STRIPS will pop.
  • Month Ending May MFO Ratings Posted!
    The year turned out pretty good! The Great Normalization Bull is now in its 15th month. And, like has happened with each bull market for the past 100 years, the S&P 500 has recovered all previous drawdown and sits at a new all-time high, month-ending December.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    @hank
    Since we've moved cash we had parked in a MM and a couple bond funds to TRP Cap App & Income (PRCFX), we are back to 95% with DG. 17 years and counting. Whenever I've moved some dollars away from DG through the years it has always cost me money.
  • Bruce Fund (BRUFX)
    Looks like Mr. Bruce has locked in AAA 10 and 20-year duration, quite a bit, with the bond sleeve. A balanced fund with 3.04% yield? That's lovely. OK, so... What about the GROWTH, eh? A correction: most of the holdings are MID-CAP, but bordering on Large Cap. (Morningstar, 30 Sept.)
    Of course, IF I decide to bail, the thing will zoom upward. ... Opportunity cost is my focus with regard to BRUFX now.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    Just for laughs … When I run my 10/10 portfolio through Fido’s analytics … it always says:
    ”Great work. Your portfolio doesn't appear to be too heavily weighted in the stocks or bonds of any one company.”
    LOL
    @Crash - Sounds like you’re having a serious love affair with DG.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    Proportions: I continue to be severely overweight PRWCX, approaching 40% of my stuff. 5 single-stocks = 14% of total. Gonna bring it down to 4, rather than 5. I guess there's no magic recipe for avoiding "Di-worse-ification."
  • Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close
    REITs.
    I recall @davidmoran likes FRT. Still 26% undervalued (Morningstar.)
    Stock Rover pegs the target price @$107.50, just 4.32% from where it sits at the end of 2023. I continue to track it.
    2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
    9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
    1-year return: +6.74%.
    Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
    Yield: 6.52%. Payout ratio: 728.85% is NUTS. What gives with that?
  • Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close
    Thanks @Observant1. I got my paper this morning but haven't dug in yet. I'll check it out tomorrow.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    Ahh, the age-old difference in opinion on how many positions are ideal in a portfolio. Many go for the perceived (index like?) comfort of volume and others can be decisive and have less holdings. Personally, I do think having many or "toe hold" positions can lead to more in-and-out decisions and therefore reduced return. I, admittedly and begrudgingly, tend to go both ways. I feel very comfortable with a few balanced funds making up the bulk of my portfolio. On the other hand, do I need 3 SC funds and 3 LC's? No. But I can be undeceived at times. If I can exist with ~15 funds, I'm feeling pretty good about myself.
    I don’t think it’s about “making more” or how many is the “best number”. Might be if someone trades too much as @MikeM says. I just think it’s a lot easier to hold a few large equally weighted positions. (Obviously stocks would need to be in smaller amounts). I got tired of the hassle and associated tracking / record keeping / trading a large inventory requires. As for specific funds, I have opportunities today I never dreamed of while largely parked at TRP. So it hasn’t been hard at all settling on a few I think I understand well and am willing to sink 10% into.
    It’s never “set in cement”. If you have 10% in a somewhat aggressive fund that’s done well for a while - maybe shift the 10% into a similar but more conservative fund to protect the gains. Conversely, if some area of investments (equities, commodities, bonds) falls sharply, you might want to shift that 10% into a more aggressive holding to take advantage of lower valuations.
    No. I don’t believe there’s any “right” number of funds. A lot of ways to skin a cat!