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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    Your pie charts seem to confirm my view that high foreign investments have hurt its returns. TRPBX’s foreign holdings are much higher than FBALX. I don’t shun foreign investments, but will prefer to use dedicated foreign funds from now on, particularly since TRP’s foreign funds are so weak. After I sold TRPBX in my Roth IRA, I reinvested in FBALX plus my other TRP stock funds (TRMCX, TRVLX and PRDMX). Also put some of money in Fidelity’s FIVFX, which has outperformed TRP foreign funds. I’m planning to do a Roth conversion with part of the ARTKX shares in my regular IRA, and will put the remaining funds in that. I’m not comfortable holding 20% of the total assets of my Roth IRA in foreign stocks plus another 10-15% in foreign bonds, particularly given the higher risk and lower returns of foreign markets for many years.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    I also tend to hold funds for quite some time, because funds have their own cycles and often when one fund underperforms another for some time, the pattern subsequently reverses.
    Looking at the calendar year percentile rankings, one could say that it's not so much that TRPBX got worse as that it tended to be okay but not great. Or as rforno put it, "kind of 'meh'".
    The fund had two bad years, 2021 and 2022 (and FBALX had an even worse record in 2022). These weigh heavily on its three year performance and five year performance. Those two years aside, its yearly performances were typically top third, just.
    Even going back to your first decade with these funds (2003-2012), TRPBX barely outpaced FBALX, 8.23% to 8.21%.
    I suspect that the fraction of equity that's invested abroad hasn't shifted much in decades. A fund may be permitted to make major allocation changes without ever taking advantage of that freedom. Not worth going back past 2017, though, because earlier annual reports don't seem to contain that information.
    Sept 2023 (M*): 32% foreign (19.01%/59.60%)
    May 2022 (annual report): 36% foreign (21%/59%)
    image
    May 2021 (annual report): 34% foreign (20%/59%)
    image
    May 2020 (annual report): 34% foreign (21%/62%)
    image
    May 2019 (annual report): 35% foreign (20%/57%)
    image
    May 2018 (annual report): 36% foreign (21%/58%)
    image
    The 2017 annual report notes that T. Rowe Price made several changes to what were then called the Personal Strategy Funds.
    On October 1, 2016, we introduced three new underlying investment strategies to the Personal Strategy Funds. ... The changes include a new allocation to alternatives through a hedge fund-of-funds, as well as initiating an investment in the T. Rowe Price Dynamic Global Bond Fund and an equity index option strategy.
  • Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close
    2023 went out with a whimper rather than a bang, but it was a better year than most expected. I was most surprised by the rally in bond funds over the past couple months. Also surprised by the performance of foreign funds, which still trailed the S&P but did well on an absolute basis. FCNTX was my best performing fund, returning nearly 40%, which was much better than expected but not surprising that it led my other funds.
    The overall value of my portfolio is still below its peak in 2021, but not far behind. My taxable account grew a lot in 2023, from investment returns as well as interest from CDs, Treasuries, money markets and short term bond funds. I also started drawing Social Security payments in 2023 and our overall income exceeded our expenses by quite a lot.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    @msf
    You are correct that TRPBX slightly outperformed FBALX by about 1.1% in 2022.
    However, over the following time periods, FBALX outperformed TRPBX annualized by this much:
    1 year, 6.7%
    3 years, 4.1%
    5 years, 4.2%
    10 years, 2.2%
    Put another way, $10,000 invested in FBALX ten years ago would be worth $23,262, compared to $17,743 with TRPBX. Since I had considerably more money invested in both funds over the past 10 years, the value of my FBALX holdings have increased by tens of thousands of dollars more than TRPBX — particularly since I’ve owned both funds for more than 20 years (until selling TRPBX earlier this year.)
    Anyway, it’s my fault for sticking with TRP allocation funds for so long. They have underperformed
    for a while, but I’m a patient buy-and-hold investor and kept expecting things to change. They did, but unfortunately for the worse.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    FWIW -
    RPGAX was one of my favorite funds when I invested directly with TRP. But haven’t owned or looked at it since. ISTM its performance was decent from inception on to about 2020 when I departed. I liked the idea of allocating approximately 10% to the Blackstone hedge fund. But that’s just me - always looking for a way to hedge the downside or step to a different drummer. True - the Blackstone holding was hard to justify on an expense basis. And it generally detracted from performance over those years. Still - I’m always looking for hedges - and that was the purpose.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    If I recall correctly, the last calendar year in which foreign stocks outperformed US stocks, FBALX still outperformed TRPBX.
    Last year (2022) FBALX lost 18.19%, while TRPBX lost "only" 17.08%. Data from M*.
    Foreign vs. domestic in 2022: VFUS (VTIAX) lost 15.99% (NAV) while VTI (VTSAX) lost 19.50% (NAV)
    2022 was a difficult year for equities around the world, and U.S. stocks were harder hit than international stocks. The S&P 500 Index fell 18% while the MSCI World Ex-USA Index declined 14%.
    https://partners.wsj.com/principal/recalibrating-risk-2023/the-resurgence-of-international-equities/
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    TRP certainly didn’t market or describe TRPBX as a global allocation fund when I started investing in it
    I don't know when that was, but the 2019 prospectus, in describing the fund's benchmark, says:
    Combined Index Portfolio is a blended benchmark composed of 60% stocks (42%-48% Russell 3000 Index and 12%-18% MSCI All-Country World ex USA Index), 30% bonds (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), and 10% money market securities (FTSE 3-Month Treasury Bill Index) through 7/1/08. As of 8/1/12 the blended benchmark was composed of 60% stocks (42% Russell 3000 Index and 18% MSCI All-Country World ex USA Index), 30% bonds (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), and 10% money market securities (FTSE 3-Month Treasury Bill Index). The indices and percentages may vary over time.
    30% of stock invested abroad or at least used to benchmark. (18%/60% stock allocation = 30%)
    If it’s a global allocation fund, then why did they create RPGAX?
    Why not? As hank observed: their offerings have multiplied at least 5X since I joined them in the mid-90s. Not sure that kind of shotgun approach is in their best interest. Also, it has a larger allocation to foreign equity (40% vs. 30% for TRPBX). Apparently enough for M* to place it in its global allocation category.
    If a Fidelity fund performs well, they generally don’t close it to their investors
    Certainly good performance attracts dollars, though it is the size of AUM itself that drives a fund to close. The theory is that a fund can manage only so much money and stay true to its style of investing. Then it hits "diseconomies of scale".
    There's research that bears this out if the family doesn't create clones. Cloning is one way a family manipulates closures to pull in more money. Another way is pre-announce a closure and wait too long to close.
    For example:
    Fidelity will launch a new fund, Fidelity International Small Cap Opportunities, per an SEC filing dated May 6, 2005. The fund, which will also come in Fidelity Advisor flavor, will invest across regions and countries in companies with market capitalizations of $5 billion or less. Andrew Sassine, who joined Fidelity as an analyst in 1999, will helm the new offering. Expenses for the no-load shares are expected to be 1.39%, which is lower than its typical foreign small/mid-growth category rival's 1.67%. The A share option will cost 1.73%, and is also lower than its typical rival's 2%.
    We find this move peculiar, and also unfriendly to the shareholders of the very similar Fidelity International Small Cap (FISMX), which Fidelity just closed on May 5, 2005.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/136400/fund-times-vanguard-energy-reopens-and-expands-team
    Curiously, TRP reopened PRIDX (9/1/23) not much after Fidelity reopened FSCOX (1/14/23). The former was closed 4/2/18. Still tracking down the latter's closing date.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    TRP’s foreign stock funds have never performed very well, with a few exceptions … .
    I’d agree with that.
    Lipper loves TRRIX - 5's across the board (except for tax efficiency)
    I pay a lot of attention to Lipper’s ratings. BTW - M* gives TRRIX a “silver” (2nd highest) rating which ain’t too shabby either. I like TRRIX too - or wouldn’t have 10% of portfolio devoted to it. Hard to beat the .49% ER for a pretty diverse basket of managed funds.
    That said… No way should that fund have fell over 13% in 2022. Especially - @msf will recall - that over the decades (far back as before the turn of the century) one commonly lauded aspect of TRP was their skill at allocating among different assets. They always seemed to have an edge in that one area. I’ve heard it here on this board over the years and that conformed to my own view until recently. Lose that edge and a good part of the reason for investing with them is gone.
    BYW - It appears they’ve recently added a bit of their Dynamic Income fund to the TRRIX fixed income mix. That fund uses bond shorts to hedge against rising rates. We’ll see how it all works out.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Observant1
    Thank you! Indeed, things ARE looking up. @rforno noticed that it might just be that the Market "barfed" its way to the end of the year, and that's what happened on Dec. 29th. But after all, it's just another day. One more day. Mr. Market possesses no emotions, so I can't very well depend on THAT.
    I'm "on top of things" as much as anyone CAN be. Market investing is, over time, a zig-zag proposition. 2024 promises to be even better. ("Famous last words." )
    "Last Words."

  • Day Hagan Smart Value Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064223007004/dayhagen_497.htm
    497 1 dayhagen_497.htm 497
    DHAM_Logo
    Day Hagan Smart Value Fund
    Class A: DHQAX Class C: DHQCX Class I: DHQIX
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated December 29, 2023 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated November 1, 2023.
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    The Board of Trustees of Mutual Fund Series Trust has concluded that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on January 26, 2024 (“Liquidation Date”).
    Effective immediately, the Fund will not accept any new investments and may no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will invest in cash equivalents until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED OR EXCHANGED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO JANUARY 26, 2024, WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OR ACCOUNT OF RECORD. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact the Fund at 1-877-329-4246 (877-DAY-HAGN).
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, any Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated November 1, 2023, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-877-329-4246 (877-DAY-HAGN) or by writing to 4221 North 203rd Street, Suite 100, Elkhorn, Nebraska 68022.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 1/1/24
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 1/1/24

    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    Drops of 75 bps except for Newer IRAs (same).
    Restricted RC 6.25%, RA 6.00%
    Flexible RCP 5.50%, SRA 5.25%, Newer IRAs 5.20%
    TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous monthly rate was 5%).
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1298/thread
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    I agree with hank about the declining service at T. Rowe Price. Performance of their allocation funds merits a closer look, however.
    TRPBX is a global allocation (60/40) fund, with about 1/3 of stocks and 1/3 of bonds invested outside the US. For comparison, Vanguard's VSMGX is a global allocation (60/40) fund that's as vanilla as one can get, comprised of Total Stock, Total Bond, Total Int'l Stock, Total Int'l Bond. The bonds are 1/3 foreign, the stocks are 2/5 foreign.
    These two funds have run neck and neck since the beginning of 2020. See PortfolioVisualizer. 3.83% annualized for TRP, 3.87% for Vanguard.
    It's difficult to classify these funds. M* lumps them in with domestic moderate allocation funds, and they both rate three stars on that scale. As Tarwheel observed, foreign holdings have underperformed. If compared strictly among global allocation funds, these funds would likely have garnered more stars.
    Lipper calls TRPBX a mixed asset target allocation moderate fund, while calling VSMGX a mixed asset target allocation growth fund. So it's not surprising that Lipper rates TRPBX a 4 (out of 5) for total return while rating VSMGX only a 1.
    The point is that these funds are doing what they said they would do and are performing as expected given what they invest in. If a global allocation fund with dynamic allocations is of more interest than a fund with static allocations, TRP offers RPGAX. PortfolioVisualizer shows that it has done a bit better than the other funds since 2020.
    M* calls RPGAX fund a global allocation fund, while Lipper calls it flexible portfolio fund. It is competitive with CIBFX and MDLOX. M* calls both of those global allocation funds; Lipper calls MDLOX a flexible portfolio fund but calls CIBFX a global equity income fund.
    Regarding TRRIX, some of the same comments apply. Long term, it has paced VSCGX, Vanguard's 40/60 global allocation (index based) fund. Since the beginning of 2020, it has surpassed VSCGX by a full percentage point (3.18% vs 2.11% annualized).
    I agree that it is unfortunately burdened with PRCIX. That's a risk with in-house funds of funds (one that Vanguard circumvents by using underlying index funds). FWIW, TRRIX has somewhat more invested in TRPZX than in PRCIX (TRRIX fact sheet). Though those are the two elephants in the fixed income room.
    Lipper loves TRRIX - 5's across the board (except for tax efficiency), since Lipper considers it a Target Now fund. The Vanguard fund is in Lipper's doghouse, since Lipper considers it a Target Allocation Moderate fund.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    For convenience I don't wanna move out of TRP. PRWCX is almost 40% of my total. It chugs along. My junk bonds TUHYX and PRCPX are doing well: one much better than the other on account of the price-point when I got in. But even the laggard has done so well, I'm just about breaking-even--- after being very patient with it, collecting rather delicious monthlies along the way.
    They have some State-specific munis which don't impress. Most of the other bond funds don't impress, either. Surely, a big pile of people are into their Retirement glide-path funds via 401k or 403b. There are just SO MANY funds. A person could get lost in them all. Remember when Matthews was doing that? And look what happened at Matthews. Quite the mess.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    @Tarwheel: "TRP also started investing about 10% of its assets in hedge funds, which from my view hasn’t helped performance a bit."
    RPGAX (Global Allocation, now 10 yrs old IIRC) also has like 10-15% exposure in a black-box. To my knowledge they never really explained what *exactly* Blackrock was managing/investing in for the fund. But wow ... I didn't know their Spectrum funds also had a PE component, too!
    I agree w/Hank that their fund offerings are kind of 'meh' and definitely have proliferated over the years -- frankly I'd think they should consolidate/close some of them if for no other reason than to make their offerings list less cluttered with a lot of me-too funds that invest similarly to each other.
    I only hold PRWCX but am keeping its income-oriented cousin (forgot the symbol) on watch as a possible holding down the road. I'll also track TCAF out of curiosity, but don't really have a need for it in my portfolios.
  • Bruce Fund (BRUFX)
    I own it in the wife's IRA. Only just more than 4% of the entire portfolio's total. Rates coming down ought to help, whenever that may start. Seems to me they "forgot" to take the annual small IRA maintenance fee.
    I have lotsa free time. I check every day. BRUFX is heavy with SMIDs. Surely, that's a drawback. The elder Bruce died, yes, and I couldn't believe my eyes when Morningstar downgraded it because of personnel changes. Jayzuz. I admit I'm getting itchy. That big cash stake hurts.
    "...The strategy's portfolio management team does not stand out and still needs to prove it has a competitive advantage. This earns the strategy an Average People Pillar rating, recently downgraded from Above Average. The strategy's effective investment approach earns an Above Average Process Pillar rating. Independent of the rating, analysis of the strategy's portfolio shows it has maintained a considerable underweight position in the Europe-Developed region and has a considerable overweight in developed markets regions compared with category peers. The strategy's parent organization is industry standard, albeit with some strong attributes like an experienced bench of portfolio managers, but is held back by low portfolio manager retention. This earns the firm an Average Parent Pillar rating...." ---Morningstar.
    Ridiculous, risible. The ONLY Manager now is the younger Bruce, the son. Unless I missed an announcement?
    Not only is the Fund heavy with SMIDs, but it's got a VALUE tilt. Looking back, it's not been VALUE'S time in the sun lately, right?
    Fixed Income: 4.59%.
    "Cash" 32.31%
    There's something less than half a billion dollars AUM. If Mr. Bruce is bound and determined to be contrarian, I'd say the Fund's results are showing it. If that is the case, then performance comparisons won't be very-well focused, targeted. But no one should be pleased to end-up the year at THE very bottom of the pack.
    YTD and 1-year: 100th percentile.
    But looking backward over several years, performance has been quite good IN COMPARISON to its peers. But... who are its peers?
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    I wonder if much of the outflow isn't self-induced. My prior company's 401k accounts were with TRP for over 30 years. All accounts were transferred to a new custodian, Merrill Lynch, earlier this year. I wouldn't be surprised, just from this one company, they willingly sold off 10s of thousands of employee and past employee accounts. I doubt it was just this one specific company, so maybe the outflow is due to them not wanting to deal with employer sponsored 401k accounts anymore. Just speculating.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    +1
    Nice write-up @Tarwheel. I’d been a happy camper with TRP since the mid to late 90s. Kept anywhere from 40-60% of my retirement funds there over more than 25 years with the rest spread around different fund houses. I left about 3 years ago after noticing their phone based client support had become abysmal to the point where i began to worry about (unwanted) paper statements ending up in someone else’s mailbox. Repeated calls didn’t help. Couldn’t stop the unwanted sporadic and unpredictable statement mailings. And when I finally moved out, they screwed up the transfer to Fidelity royally.
    Their fixed income funds lagged up until the late 90s when a very talented woman took over. For a few years, under her leadership they got a lot better. Not sure when she moved on. ISTM she left sometime after 2000 to take a government position in Washington DC. Fixed income fell back to mediocre not long after.
    The Giroux affectionados here love the guy and everything he touches - with good reason. Maybe they’ll discover a way to clone him and put the clowns clones in charge of everything. But I agree with you that their allocation funds ain’t what they once were. Likely it’s the fixed income component that’s causing the lackluster performance. I do own a slug of TRRIX (a 40/60 fund). ISTM it lost 10-12% in 2022. Worst showing I can ever remember (umm … other than 2008). It keeps most of its fixed income component in their New Income Fund (PRCIX) and most of the remainder in a short-immediate term TIPs fund. The former has always been a bit of a dog.
    The world turns over every 24 hours. I’m sure the move to ETFs is hurting their bottom line and maybe (a guess) causing either some talent drain or cut-backs in research. Just guesses. BTW - their offerings have multiplied at least 5X since I joined them in the mid-90s. Not sure that kind of shotgun approach is in their best interest. But definitely got problems in River City Baltimore.
  • Foreign Mutual Fund Suggestions
    My experiences with foreign small caps and emerging markets have not been good. I invested in Artisan’s global small cap, and it performed so poorly that they closed it after a few years. I invested in MAPIX, and it was still losing money after more than 7 years. I invested in SFGIX, one of the better EM funds, and it had returned less than 4% annually after more than 11 years. These kind of funds tend to get destroyed in down markets, and it happens quickly.
    I’m through investing in foreign SC and EM now, unless some of my broader foreign funds invest in them. My advice to anyone considering these markets, is to be prepared for a long wait before making any money— unless you get lucky with your timing. I’ll be 70 in January, and I might not live long enough to see them make money. Good luck!
    I second the comments posted here. It is SO difficult to find any Foreign funds that perform comparable to Domestic funds. We get our Foreign exposure through a coupla Global funds, and that's it for us. Usually hold about 10% of our stock exposure in Foreign.
  • T Rowe Price outflows
    Interesting article in Financial Times about TRP’s loss of investors. I’m one of the long term investors who’ve been bailing out. Although I still invest in TRP funds, I transferred our Roth IRAs from there to Fidelity a couple years ago. Convenience was a big factor because now all of our investments are with Fidelity. However, it was also due to a growing lack of confidence in TRP. A lot of my investments are in allocation funds, and I’m not pleased with TRP’s offerings, aside from PRWCX, which has been closed to new investors for a while. My wife and I have invested with TRP for more than 25 years, with more than $200K in our Roth IRAs, and they still wouldn’t let us invest in PRWCX.
    So we invested heavily in TRPBX, which has been a major disappointment. It was considered a top moderate allocation fund when we started using it, but performance has steadily declined— which is ironic because PRWCX has been so successful. Much of the problem seems to be their asset allocation, with heavy stakes in foreign and emerging markets. Although the fund’s volatility is not bad on a day-to-day basis, it has been hurt by the high foreign allocations in down and up markets. TRP also started investing about 10% of its assets in hedge funds, which from my view hasn’t helped performance a bit.
    We still own several TRP stock funds that have performed well, through the Fidelity funds network. However, we’ve ditched their bond and allocation funds. The Fidelity funds that replaced them have all had better performance. We’ll probably drop some of our remaining TRP funds if they don’t improve soon. At one time, I considered using TRP for all of our investments, but we decided to use Fidelity as well — and my Fidelity investments as a whole have greatly outperformed my TRP holdings.
    https://www.ft.com/content/7cdd7cd9-f465-48ae-af18-aa8201f8fab8
  • Bruce Fund (BRUFX)
    This fund appears to be over concentrated in pharmaceuticals and energy; not diversified at all. When benchmarked against the S&P500 (may not be the most appropriate benchmark for this portfolio) it has underperformed steadily for the last 12 years. I'd definitely move on and look for a more diversified fund that is performing competitively against a broad market index. Some good things to say about Bruce: low expense ratio, low turnover, no-load.