The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders' recent article asks the question:
"Complation"…Is there too much complacency regarding inflation? "The rub is that much of the economic data outside of direct inflation readings suggest higher inflation ahead. Both key purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)—the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global—show that output prices have jumped to levels akin to the early part of the pandemic. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey is also showing that a higher-than-average number of small businesses are raising prices, or plan to. Many high-profile larger companies have announced price increases as well—including Walmart, Macy's, Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, Mattel, Adidas, Ralph Lauren, Stanley Black & Decker, Best Buy, Microsoft, and Nintendo.""What's also notable is the still-wide gap between the discretionary ("wants") and non-discretionary ("needs") components of the CPI. As shown below, although there has been some convergence between the two, needs' prices are running at about twice the level of wants' prices; disproportionately hurting lower-income consumers."https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-going-onwith-inflation
I wonder how many companies are opting to slowly boil that frog, by quietly and incrementally raising prices, without actually saying anything. To draw no attention to themselves.
Cherry-picked stats by the OP are not to be taken seriously. Best to be used as a springboard to highlight the total inanity of the circumstances. And an opportunity to set the record straight. A chart of the S&P for the past 2 1/2 years tells an interesting story. 2
5% back-to-back gains until a wall was hit. That wall was Trump's policies. as soon as he backed off, the market responded positively, still only up 3-4% YTD, instead of 10-1
5% the trend was implying we should have.
The market wants to surge and he won't let it. He wants loose FED policy, tantamount to stimulus, to cover for his trade/tariff failures. If his policies were working, they would not need artificial help. Mr Market would be running with it.
There is zero historical evidence that even aggressive FED policy calms inflation in months. What we are witnessing is the results of more than two years of FED policy decisions. And someone trying to steal credit for that, while attacking the architect. Biden had two years of the highest FED fund rates in decades and wasn't whining about the hand he was dealt. Instead we had +
50% cumulative S&P gains.
The only thing different, and holding the market back, is current trade policy and all the underlying chaos in the disjointed messaging. This guy was handed a roaring economy and is squandering it. Many of the business leaders who supported him are now distancing themselves and hoping for relief.
The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP We are supposed to believe that some magical administration policies brought down inflation in mere months, without specifying which policies actually did this. It's a hoot.
Hell, if he can do that, he doesn't need the FED to lower rates. He can just apply more magic sauce. Show us how it works. The laughable part of all this, is that the same quarters that said Powell lowered rates too soon last year, now are begging for more rate cuts. Pick a lane.
But, I am open to learning. So, let's hear exactly which policies caused this inflation relief and the mechanism behind it? Explain the causation. Was it taxing all imports at historic levels? That would suggest demand destruction. In that case, look out below. 1Q GDP was -0.5%. Maybe we are on to something here.
Where To Invest Now? My two international equity funds have been my best performers, by far, in 2025.
The YTD returns for my small blend and large blend funds are 16.44% and 15.04% respectively.
I don't know if international equity funds will continue to outperform U.S. equity funds.
It's important to note that the U.S. outperformed international for a very long time (until recently)
and performance between these two asset classes tends to revert to the mean.
TBLD TIBIX/TIBAX TBLD has an expense ratio of 1.59% and it is not leveraged. Not acceptable.
When government controls the means of production... is referred to as "Socialism". A textbook example to follow:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/26/trump-golden-share-us-steel-nippon-merger.html-U.S. Steel’s amended charter gives Trump
sweeping powers over major business decisions while he is in office.
-The “golden share” will
then be held by the Treasury and Commerce Departments after Trump’s term is over, according to a SEC filing.
-Trump will have
veto power over some production and wage decisions.
Where is the print media hiding the economic stats released earlier today? 26 June, '25 Making me work for it, eh? lol

"US Jobless claims declined to 236,000 as
continuing claims increased to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021."
"Elsewhere, the US merchandise-
trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May while imports were little changed, and
first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.5% compared to the second reading of -0.2%."
For comparison, 1st Q 2024 GDP was tepid at 1.6%. That minus .
5% makes last years number look awesome in retrospect. Has anyone told Donald?
I wouldn't doubt a bigger number for 2nd Q 202
5, simply because the threat of tariffs likely pulled forward a lot of spending.
Something about the statement that 1Q imports "were little changed", baffles me. How can that be, when the story has been early import "hoarding" in the face of coming tariffs? Did order cancellations offset "upfronting" efforts?
Where To Invest Now? Morningstar's chief multi-asset strategist Dominic Pappalardo and chief investment officer Philip Straehl
discuss current market opportunities.
As always, these prognostications must be taken with a grain of salt.
"In equity markets, Pappalardo and Straehl see value in international stocks, small caps,
global consumer discretionary stocks, and healthcare names.
In the fixed-income markets, they recommend a large overweight position in US Treasuries
and a slight overweight position in emerging markets."https://www.morningstar.com/markets/consumer-stocks-stand-out-among-opportunities-second-half-2025
Where is the print media hiding the economic stats released earlier today? 26 June, '25 Michael McKee was all over it on Bloomberg in the middle of the night....
Leavitt: July 9 trade deadline "not critical" This is so revealing. It stinks of unrealistic expectations, lack of confidence in assumed leverage, and abject fear over adverse market reactions. Anyone with a strong negotiating position and a solid plan doesn't keep moving the goalposts. Nor would they underestimate their adversaries.
A real plan would be that you begin negotiations with a realistic timeframe and a threat of tariffs to potentially arise. That hangs over the negotiations providing uncertainty for your adversary and a sense of urgency, as well. I.e. - Six months and we impose 25% tariffs, unless we have a deal. Then you don't tank your own stock market and end up backing down repeatedly. The tariff threat needs to be something that you can live with, should things not work out. Certainly not 145% tariffs on your biggest trade partner, who has actual leverage. And then you back down, lending the accurate impression that you do not have the confidence you are fronting.
And never don't bite off more than you can chew by targeting everyone all at once. We will either get seriously unimpressive results, or this will still be going on for another year. If, while FAFO, our own economic indicators start to erode, our leverage will diminish accordingly.
Faced with minimum of 10% tariffs on all imported goods, and reciprocal tariffs on exports, and threats not to dare raise prices, how long before corporate American goes with the standard playbook - layoffs?
Magnificent Seven
Best States For Taxes On Retirement Income Glad nearly all my retirement savings are in taxable accounts, so that 15% LTCG would be a better deal for me in Virginia and should save about 3% vs if I was tapping an IRA. Cool.....
Leavitt: July 9 trade deadline "not critical"
RBC Funds liquidates several funds
Automobile Cost of Ownership Somewhat related - I wasn’t happy with the headlights on the last car. Did some research and learned that it had
reflector headlights, whereas more expensive cars have
projector headlights known to be brighter. New car has projector lights. Better.
More and more idiots on the highways tailgating and pulling out into traffic. This has to increase accident rates and cost of auto insurance for everyone. In addition to struggling to make payments on their big rolling houses these folks are likely paying enormous insurance costs related to moving violations or accidents.
Michigan expressways are now posted 7
5 MPH. Many are driving 8
5 +. I don't mind as long as they’re sober and know what they’re doing. Small mistakes are amplified at those speeds.
Automobile Cost of Ownership Many products these days are unrepairable or hard to repair. Some cheap TVs are all sealed and you cannot even open it to check or fix anything.
This is slowly getting to cars too.
I have read that in many car models, to replace the headlights, they have to disassemble the entire front portion and then put it back. So, that's what adds to the time and labor.
I had a car once that had a difficult access for battery and required special tools to replace it.
Even DIY oil changes in some cars are tricky.
To be fair "the entire front end" is mainly a plastic facade (bumper cover) that can be removed in about 1
5 minutes if you know where the fasteners are located.
And even if you could open that cheap TV, there would be nothing inside you could fix. Just a couple circuit boards, with very minute components baked on. Though I did help a neighbor replace a soldered-in-place fuse on a cheap TV, that got taken out in a lightning event a few years ago.
Most people do not want to hear it, but things like TVs are basically obsolete in about 6-8 years nowadays. I had a 10 year old TV that failed (again lightning). I was not sad to see it go, all the smart functions were basically useless. The world had moved on from the hardware embedded inside, years ago.
Automobile Cost of Ownership YBB said "I have read that in many car models, to replace the headlights, they have to disassemble the entire front portion and then put it back. So, that's what adds to the time and labor."
I can vouch for that. Had to replace a passenger side headlamp bulb in a 2009 Silverado.
It took over an hour and a half, many cuss words, and a few shredded knuckles. FWIW I replaced the driver side bulb in 10-15 min just 6 mo earlier.
Automobile Cost of Ownership Part cost contributed to higher insurance this year. Our 12-month premium increased 7%.
Many auto parks came from overseas, Higher cost today due to tariffs, easily 10+%, and they were passed to the customers. My auto mechanic confirmed that. Labor rate at show stay flattening. Only materials produced domestically are oils (especially synthetics), and some hydraulic fluids.
EVs accidents that damage the battery cells located on the floor may get the vehicle totaled. Many insurance companies do not want to replace the entire battery. OEM Tesla battery cost $20-2
5K.
“Bait-and-switch” is common among insurance companies. We have hand the same scenario as
@yogibb above.
Automobile Cost of Ownership The cost to fix damaged cars has increased by 28% since 2021.
Seemingly minor damage to vehiclesTell me about it. I recently was in a fender bender (my fault, first time in over two decades and I wasn't at fault for that earlier one). 2MPH. Front fender dented, minor scratch to side mirror and some scratches along side of car (more dust than scratches). Cost to repair? Almost $7K.
Fortunately I never dropped my collision insurance. And after
5 years without accidents, I supposedly have accident forgiveness. I'll see what my premium is in six months.
The shop did a magnificent job, and they were really helpful. (And I feel sorry for the workers who did the repairs in near 100 degree heat.) Still, numbers like this show why insurance costs are so high.
(This happened one block from home. Statistics show that 7
5% of accidents occur within 2
5 miles of home,
52% within five miles. I've made the grade, I'm another statistic.)
https://hutzlerlaw.com/what-percentage-of-car-accidents-happen-close-to-home/
AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/25/25 Stunningly unbelievable considering NASDAQ 100 is at historical highs, junk bonds at historical highs, S@P around 0.85% from historical highs and all within the context of one of the steepest and quickest rise off any prior low. Please no good news, let the uncertainty continue to reign, and don’t let the walls of worry crumble.