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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • We want the junk -- Apologies to George Clinton
    Since this post has been bumped . . .
    Prof. Snowball's thesis in his column:
    in every measure of returns, more equity is better. In every measure of risk and of risk-adjusted returns, less equity is better. Several earlier MFO essays on the discreet charm of stock-lite portfolios found the same relationship is true for periods dating back 100 years. Lightening up equity exposure reduces your volatility by a lot more than it reduces your returns, so it always seems like the best move for risk-conscious investors.
    And he chose four "Great Owls", which included FAGIX and FPACX as well as OSTIX and RSIVX, as great alternatives to only equities. All four buy more, or less, junk. I chose to run PV against FAGIX because I am not comfortable buying most bond funds whether they're buying junk, or agencies.
    If David Giroux wants to buy junk, well, that's why I bought his fund. Let him worry about it. I don't need to pay above average fees to FPA.I can load up on cash myself. YMMV.
    In this PV I'm looking at GLFOX versus FAGIX and FPACX. I think of GLOFX as a global version of Electric Company, Waterworks, and the railroads. So, Widows & Orphans take a ride on The Reading . . .
    For those that don't follow links, GLOFX has the better standard deviation, Sharpe, and Sortino numbers, a better compound growth rate, lost less money in the worst year of holding, has less correlation to the market, and the lowest beta and highest alpha.

    And here is the original W&O versus FPACX
    . Since July 1993 FPACX is the winnerin returns, while W&O beat FAGIX.
    Here are some runs against what MFO Premium calls The Great Normalization (TGN), which they date from January 2022

    First: W&O versus FPACX and FAGIX
    . My take away is that the fund with the best SD, Sharpe, and Sortino numbers also had the worst CAGR, worst yearly loss, and highest market correlation. YMMV
    And here is W&O Ride the Rails. And it looks to me like the fund with the worst Sharpe and Sortino numbers has lost the least amount of your money. But I don't always spot things correctly. Let me know if you see something different.
    Why did I run these numbers? It's the kind of thing I like to do when people say things like every. I like to dig a little deeper.
  • Roth Conversion calculator and Tax impact
    Nice piece as usual from Kitces. If nothing else, it goes far in conveying a sense of why one doesn't find calculators for this. A couple of the comments are also worth a mention:
    - the first comment suggests including ACA subsidies (tax credits) in the calculations (as I also suggested, above);
    - Kitces added a comment about how paying the taxes on a Roth conversion from a taxable account changes things (there's a tax drag on the taxable investments that is reduced by converting).
    - That was his response to another comment citing this 2021 (2022 update) paper (haven't read it yet);
    When and for Whom are Roth Conversions Most Beneficial? A New Set of Guidelines, Cautions and Caveats
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3860359 
  • Tax brackets and income limits and standard deductions...
    Well, now! Great news! With reference to my question above, there might be a million ways to do it; can anyone here on the board offer a simple method? To gift to my wife? She is a US citizen. (Or son, within the $18k limit?)
    My own Pension, SS, gains/losses from investments are our only reportable income. She holds a T-IRA that is stinking up the world this year, worth today less than $10k. So that counts, but not for much. But no earned income by her.....So, can't dump it into her IRA.
    The idea here is to reduce my own Trad. IRA and grow the (joint) brokerage, taxable side of the portfolio. Taxes are not a consideration. And I would not want to just empty-out my own IRA, because that would be way too much money added to taxable income in a single year. Don't ever want to see THAT sort of tax bill!
  • High yield long term CDs
    Getting back to my prior posts here about playing in the Seconday Issues sandbox in case anyone is interested...
    FWIW, I will rolling over some CDs starting in the next two weeks as some rungs mature. There are still a coupla New Issues left in the Fido inventory (after last week's shake out) that meet my respective hurdles for their maturities. But there are also a coupla Secondary Issues that I just might BUY instead. I will be massaging those numbers in detail and will provide a summary of my decisions.
    @Jan: There are NO commissions (fees) charged to the BUYer of a Fido or VG New Issue CD. They both charge the same % fee on Secondary Issues BUYs. As noted previously, for example, on the BUY of a $50K Secondary Issue CD, the fee at both is $50. That fee of course needs to be accounted for in determining which BUY is better, New or Secondary Issue. FWIW, I have never and would never pay a fee for a New Issue CD. I have however many times over the past 15 years happily paid the (IMO) nominal fee on Secondary Issues in order to increase my effective yields over those then offered by New Issues.
  • Tax brackets and income limits and standard deductions...
    $18k gift exclusion for individuals. Suppose I want to gift $18k to my wife? The only account she has in her name ALONE is her Trad IRA. But..... there's no reportable earned income. She can't add to it, anyhow.
    I just write her a check from our (joint) checking account? But then the IRS sees my name on it, too...
    How might I DO this?
  • Tax brackets and income limits and standard deductions...
    Annual gift exclusion for 2024 was increased to $18K (per individual, per beneficiary).
    The same is also the annual contribution limit for 529s , although there is a 5-yr pull-forward provision that can allow 5 x 18K = $90K into 529 right away.
    Clawbacks may apply to gifts.
  • SLADX, FAIRX, MetWest Total Return and GIM
    I did some research on Boaz Weinstein & Saba. Guy has an interesting background. He is a hedge fund "genius" but question is whether his magic translates into his public/listed funds. This doesn't always work - look at Robert Goldstein and his funds (GSPY, GVLU, etc), Carl Icahn and his investment vehicle (IEP).
    In 2021, Saba followed a similar strategy to takeover Voya PPR and turn it into a different hybrid fund BRW. A recent report for BRW shows mix of investments in stocks, bonds, CEFs, cryptos. GIM/SABA will probably do the same on a bigger scale (it’s 4x BRW); for now, the current ER will be maintained but may go up later.
    Another unexpected CEF development occurred in 2020 when Franklin Templeton/Franklin/BEN bought Legg Mason whose subsidiary was Western Asset Mgmt. Western had many bond CEFs and this change in control triggered the renewals of all Western CEFs’ advisory contracts. Saba and other CEF activists took advantage of this by buying positions in several Western ETFs that they wanted to target.
  • We want the junk -- Apologies to George Clinton
    M*, about FAGIX: "High yield with a boost from equities." Which might help to explain the lower yield compared to some other junk stuff, like:
    PRCPX. 7.21%
    TUHYX 7.83%
    VWEHX 5.98%
    SCYB 9.1%
    FFRHX. bank loans. 8.22%
    ANGL. fallen angels. 8.07%
    FALN. fallen angels. 8.42%
    FAGIX 5.53%
    So FAGIX does not depend totally on the interest. 15% in equities.
  • Tax brackets and income limits and standard deductions...
    Again. Yes, this has been covered in here already. But for handy reference, again, for the year 2024. We'll file those tax returns in early 2025.
    But... OOPS! They forgot to list the 10% bracket, as if it does not exist. But it does.
    https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-may-have-lowered-your-federal-taxes-by-usd-1500-8400185?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral
    ...Because, I see multiple other sources specifically including the 10-percent bracket. Indeed.
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/taxes/taxes-federal-income-tax-bracket/
    https://www.axios.com/2023/11/09/irs-tax-brackets-2024-federal-income-taxes
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I have been switching from T bills and CDs to buy bond ladder at Fidelity. With a minimum of 100K, one can construct multiple bonds in each rungs.
  • FOMC Statement, 11/1/23
    In Q&A, Powell firmly rejected what the climate-protesters wanted him to do - use the Fed to force banks to somethings that haven't cleared the Congress. Somewhere during the interruption, he also dropped the F-bomb and that is all everyone seems to be reporting.
    Speech Text https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231109a.htm
  • Low Volume, High Liquidity ETFs
    ETFs have creation/redemption mechanisms for authorized participants (market makers, think of them as wholesalers). They can trade in-kind with stock/bond-baskets in lots of 50,000+ shares. So, if one wanted to buy multiple times of the daily volume, one would work with the ETF sponsor and/or authorized participant.
    Retail investors should keep orders at small fractions of the daily volume, e.g. 5% or 10%, and use limit-orders. No retail buyer should dump a market-order for 10,000 shares for something that traded only 3,800 daily. But this sort of thing does happen in pre/post-market (afterhours) trading that is very illiquid. A market-order of just a few hundred shares can be HUGE for afterhours. Some do it for manipulation that doesn't stick in normal trading.
  • Low Volume, High Liquidity ETFs
    Can someone explan how all this works? Example. FPAG, newer ETF, ave daily volume 3800 shares. That is low. Say someone wanted to buy $240,000 (~10,000 shares) of the ETF. How would that work, place a limit trade but at what point/spread? Would the ETF fund mgmt then just issue more shares to meet the order (not sure if I stated that correctly)? The price would not be affected like it would it one bought a ton of stock in a company with a low float? Underlying investments in FPAG seem to be very liquid.
    How would that work if one owned the quarter million in FPAG, the market got a schmeissing and you wanted to bail, how would that work, due to low volume would there be a problem?
    How should one be thinking about a scenario like this?
    Baseball Fan
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/8/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/8/23
    BULLISH became the top sentiment (42.6%; above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (27.2%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (30.2%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was +15.4% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (89+ weeks, 2/24/22-now); Israel-Hamas (4+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up sharply, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar down. A huge flip-flop in the Sentiment. Interest rates fell. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1245/thread
  • High yield long term CDs
    I’ve heard I would have to pay a brokerage fee which I wouldn’t have to in a bank IRA.
    I've never paid a fee to buy a CD or treasury at Schwab.
    A brokered cd has to be sold to the secondary market
    Not sure why anyone would consider selling a CD once bought. Especially in 401k or IRA. MM's (now paying ~5.24%) are for liquidity.
    I'm not trying to convince you not to follow your plan. I just don't understand your thought process... Not that I need too.
  • Angel Oak High Yield Opportunities & Total Return Bond Funds (A class) are hard closed
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1612930/000089418923008289/angeloak497e11-2023.htm
    497 1 angeloak497e11-2023.htm 497
    Filed Pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration No. 333-197427; 811-22980
    ANGEL OAK HIGH YIELD OPPORTUNITIES FUND
    Class A
    ANGEL OAK TOTAL RETURN BOND FUND
    Class A
    Each, a series of Angel Oak Funds Trust
    Supplement to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
    each dated May 31, 2023
    November 8, 2023
    Effective immediately, Class A shares of each of the Angel Oak High Yield Opportunities Fund and the Angel Oak Total Return Bond Fund (each, a “Fund”) will no longer be sold to new investors or existing shareholders (except through automatically reinvested distributions). Class A shares of each Fund will continue to be eligible for exchanges from other Angel Oak mutual funds in accordance with the policies in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Prospectus, Summary Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
  • Promising New ETFs - TCAF, BINC, CVLC
    While not new per se but new for me I've recently (within the last year) placed investments in:
    OMFL "The investment seeks to track the investment results (before fees and expenses) of the Russell 1000® Invesco Dynamic Multifactor Index. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its total assets in the securities that comprise the underlying index. The underlying index is designed to reflect a dynamic combination of “factor investing” strategies that, in the view of the index provider, have historically outperformed other factors during various parts of the economic cycle." (Source M*)
    CALF "The investment seeks to track the total return performance, before fees and expenses, of the Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows Index (the "index"). Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the fund's total assets (exclusive of collateral held from securities lending) will be invested in the component securities of the index. The index uses an objective, rules-based methodology to provide exposure to small-capitalization U.S. companies with high free cash flow yields." (Source M*)
    And CGDV "The investment seeks to produce income exceeding the average yield on U.S. stocks generally and to provide an opportunity for growth of principal consistent with sound common stock investing. Normally, the fund invests at least 80% of its assets in dividend-paying common stocks of larger, more established companies domiciled in the United States with market capitalizations greater than $4.0 billion. It may invest up to 10% of its assets in equity securities of larger companies domiciled outside the United States. The fund is non-diversified." (Source M*)
    CGDV is fairly new and I'm hoping they can continue their history of steady to outperformance they've shown with the American Funds mutual funds. Both GCDV and OMFL give me other avenues to follow outside of SPY and QQQ's growthier leanings. I stepped into CALF because Christmas is coming and I don't hold a dedicated small cap offering otherwise.
  • High yield long term CDs
    @Jan, am I understanding correctly? You would rather be in a bank (Ally) CD at 4.5% instead of a brokerage (Fidelity) money market at ~5.2%, and you are worried about brokerage CD's which pay at least an extra 1% over your bank CD - because you want liquidity (not to sell on the secondary market)?
    Maybe I'm naïve, but I guess I don't understand the concept of opening an IRA at a bank having little flexibility for investing and less return on savings accounts and CDs. I think msf has a good and reassuring post on brokerage accounts above, but, to each their own...