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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Any glaring risks in a fund like LQDH?
    I don't see any direct short Treasury positions.
    Basically, it holds corporate LQD & tons of rate-swaps plus supporting cash. Duration is very low. So, the overall effect is m-mkt like returns out of intermediate-term bonds overlaid with derivatives. But the current yield is well below VMFXX, so, what's the point?
    I’m not sure that’s a fair comparison, With the present inverted yield curve money market funds should yield better than longer dated bonds. Were yield the only factor nobody would invest in longer dated bonds today. Any (perceived) advantage would accrue to someone who wanted to own longer term investment grade bonds for diversification and who thought the inverted curve will return to normal some day.
    * Isn’t the ultra low “effective” duration (0.15 years) really just a reflection of the hedging? Duno. Just trying to learn.
    Here’s a link to Blackrock / LQDH with some performance data. Seems to have outdistanced money market funds in recent years. - M* shows LQDH returning north of 3% annually over the past 10 years. That’s about double what money market funds achieved.
    Appreciate the comments from @yogibearbull
  • Latest Memo From Howard Marks
    The good news for all of us is fd1mm has found someone they are impressed by.
    Two people. See "US family finances as of 2y ago" thread.
  • Latest Memo From Howard Marks
    The good news for all of us is fd1mm has found someone they are impressed by.
  • Latest Memo From Howard Marks
    Howard Marks is very smart and articulate, but you get generic ideas, and many shades of gray. You also get opinions on both sides to cover his Axx. The one thing you hardly get is what to do now and how markets work, and that's exactly what I'm looking for.
    Listen to Tom Bowley and you will learn a lot more about markets, what actually happens, and what to do with a degree of success. Every week, he posts his podcast.
    He is my number 1 and only analyst I listen to, no BS, just pure opinions. There is a good chance you will learn something useful.
    See (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCm7uW8Ekk0b-7n02F-C4ApQ?view_as=subscriber)
    I tried listening to the latest Bowley podcast. Could not get very far. I'm with @hank. Bowley just sounds so casual and informal. I'm waiting, waiting, waiting for him to make his ..... ..... POINT.
  • US family finances as of 2y ago
    @FD1000
    reading comp, man, reading comp (study my hed)
    2022 is 2y ago
    As for:
    >> Since 1980, no other president except Trump has achieved above 10% real wage growth.
    cite?
    Are you thinking fig 3 of this supports your assertion?
    https://www.aei.org/articles/have-wages-stagnated-for-decades-in-the-us/
    An answer may lie in this thicket; search for "real wage":
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_Donald_Trump_administration
    Also delve these:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_Donald_Trump_administration
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0215
    Will be interested in your evidence. Above 10%, huh.
  • US family finances as of 2y ago
    First, it's 3 years, not 2 years.
    Second, looks to me they started in 2019, not showing the peak of 2020. If you look at this chart(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q)
    Trump started in Q1/2017 and by Q2/2020, real wages after inflation grew up from 355 to 393. That is 10.7% real growth. Then covid hit, and since Q2/2020, it went from 393 back to 368, this is a decline of 6.4%,
    2 more observations:
    1) From Q4/1099 to Q1/2017 = 18 years, it grew from 335 to 355 = 5.9%
    2) Since 1980, no other president except Trump has achieved above 10% real wage growth.
  • US family finances as of 2y ago
    Does this report take in the Covid-19 effect ?
  • Employees overworked at Nvidia - Bloomberg
    A snippet from my Bloomberg feed FWIW
    ”Nvidia stock has gained 3,776% since the start of 2019 as the company benefits from selling the main chip necessary for artificial intelligence. It’s been minting many new multimillionaires in the process. But work hours at the company are grueling and high-stress, current and former employees said, leaving little time for jet-setting, homebuying or leisure many can now afford. Nvidia has a brewing culture problem, they warn.”
    From Bloomberg Media 8/26/27
  • Latest Memo From Howard Marks
    We should make this a permanent thread to post all future Howard Marks memos and related forum discussion in one thread.
    +1.
  • The Thrilling 36 Funds
    Most of these ratings are machine driven anyway.
    True, and that's what disqualifies most funds from the list.
    "Funds must be rated by Morningstar analysts". That's human beings, not machines. If you're making a broader statement, that analysts rely on numbers that machines generate, what would be better? 100% touchy-feely analyses?
    I spot checked a few of the funds: MERDX, RPMGX, BUBIX, SIGIX, POAGX. Admittedly not a huge sample, but every one of them has a rating that is 100% analyst-driven.
    This is why I wrote: "the real problem is with the requirement that the funds must be 100% covered by analysts. " It's not so much fees that guarantees massive funds; it's analyst coverage. M* assigns analysts almost exclusively to the most popular (largest) funds. Though one can sometimes find an oddball or two, such as MERDX ($1.1B AUM).
  • Latest Memo From Howard Marks
    Howard Marks is very smart and articulate, but you get generic ideas, and many shades of gray. You also get opinions on both sides to cover his Axx. The one thing you hardly get is what to do now and how markets work, and that's exactly what I'm looking for.
    Listen to Tom Bowley and you will learn a lot more about markets, what actually happens, and what to do with a degree of success. Every week, he posts his podcast.
    He is my number 1 and only analyst I listen to, no BS, just pure opinions. There is a good chance you will learn something useful.
    See (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCm7uW8Ekk0b-7n02F-C4ApQ?view_as=subscriber)
  • Vanguard to Bolster Active Fixed Income Lineup with Two Active Municipal ETFs
    ok, the summary i wanted to dig out...please correct as needed :
    tax-exempt lineup discussed above :
    - the current MFs are active
    - the current ETFs are passive
    - the ETFs are ~1-2bps cheaper (~10% cheaper on already very low amt)
    - the active ETFs are to debut 'sometime' in 2024
    while the duration\maturity roughly follows the name (except high yield), the quality mix requires going into each fund page.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts

    A one year CHART for the major home builders of PULTE, D.R. HORTON, LENNAR, TOLL BROS. AND NVR; in this order in the chart.
    One year CHART of 3 widely traded home builders ETF's.
    In opinion: these stocks and sometimes the ETF's receive a fair amount of action from hedge funds and other volume traders. It appears that 'options trading' is also available for the ETF's.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I wrote: "How much better, and how much is already priced in, I have no idea."
    For more recent 3m RE is 1st, up almost 14%
    Now I have a clue :-)
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Thanks for the link @msf,
    For more recent 3m RE is 1st, up almost 14%
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    RE in general has had a good year.
    VNQ
    VGSIX
    Even FRIFX has moved up 10%ish
    The sector's raw performance is good. A rising tide lifted all boats. Relatively speaking, not so impressive.
    YTD, S&P 500 RE is the third worst (out of 11) performing sectors. The worst sector (Consumer Discretionary) is up over 6% YTD. We won't mention Energy - second worst YTD, and worst by a long shot over the past year, barely in positive territory.
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/sector
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I don't pay too much attention to sectors, so take the following as questions and observations from someone who knows just enough to be dangerous:
    Do homebuilders like Pulte (a name I do recognize from having lived in suburbs) take out short term loans to purchase building materials? The reason for the question is that interest rates for mortgages don't move in tandem with short term rates. In this industry each rate can have an impact.
    In looking at companies like BLDR, are you thinking about remodeling or new home construction, or both? I believe that the stock of existing homes has been held down by high mortgage rates - people are reluctant to walk away from low rates they locked in years ago. So many have chosen to make improvements rather than move. When (if) mortgage rates drop significantly, this may change and affect who is buying building materials.
    It could also affect the market for new homes, since they'll now be competing with more existing homes than before (acknowledging that there is still an overall housing shortage).
    The construction industry seems (from my 30,000 foot vantage point where I rarely look out the window) to be bad at dealing with market cycles. In good times, they build on spec. Though often by the time the construction is put on the market, demand has cooled.
    I'm guessing that you're referring to this article:
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-dr-horton-stock-price-pick-72f0f4e1
    (Thank you Google and public libraries; I got free access both ways)
    It presents a nice, level headed picture of a well run company. As to the industry prospects, it's looking more than two years out. "Fed governors see short-term rates falling by about roughly two percentage points over the coming couple of years". However, over the next year+, both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association are seeing rates drop by just over 1/2%, from 6.46% (8/22/24 actual) to 5.9% (Q4 2025).
    https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/when-will-mortgage-rates-go-down-164144910.html
    Certainly the prospects for the industry look better now than they have been for awhile (perhaps excepting building materials - lumber prices soared during the pandemic as people spent money on home improvements). How much better, and how much is already priced in, I have no idea.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @MikeM
    RE in general has had a good year.
    VNQ
    VGSIX
    Even FRIFX has moved up 10%ish
  • MDP Low Volatility Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437249/000158064224004810/mdp_497.htm
    497 1 mdp_497.htm 497
    MDP LOW VOLATILITY FUND
    Class A Shares - MDPMX
    Class I Shares – MDPLX
    Supplement dated August 26, 2024 to Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated May 31, 2024
    The Board of Trustees of Valued Advisers Trust (the “Board”) authorized an orderly liquidation of the MDP Low Volatility Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Valued Advisers Trust. The Board determined on August 23, 2024 that closing and liquidating the Fund was in the best interests of the Fund and the Fund’s shareholders.
    The Fund’s investment adviser informed the Board of its view that it no longer is economically feasible to continue managing the Fund because of the Fund’s small size and the difficulty encountered in attracting assets.
    The Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares, and it will close effective as of September 24, 2024 (“Closing Date”). Shareholders may redeem Fund shares at any time prior to this Closing Date. Procedures for redeeming your account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “How to Redeem Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record. If your Fund shares were purchased through a broker-dealer or other financial intermediary and are held in a brokerage or other investment account, redemption proceeds may be forwarded by the Fund directly to the broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for deposit into your brokerage or other investment account.
    The Fund is no longer pursuing its investment objective. All holdings in the Fund’s portfolio are being liquidated, and the proceeds will be invested in money market instruments or held in cash. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until the Closing Date. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
    For additional information regarding the liquidation, shareholders of the Fund may call (833) 914-3344.
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 31, 2024, which provide information that you should know before investing in the Fund and should be retained for future reference. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund at (833) 914-3344.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Latest Memo From Howard Marks
    Thanks @Mark. Howard is the only market pundit I pay attention too. Some, I’m afraid, are trying to generate clients, build name recognition or foster trading business for their firms. Others may be trying to boost prices of what they already own, perhaps with an eye to selling - although ”pump & dump” is (I believe) illegal. In the case of media, it’s all about keeping eyeballs glued to the screen by creating fear, euphoria or suspense. “Breaking News” is indeed broken. And then there’s the analysts, some of whom were still in HS when the 2007 bubble burst and in diapers back in ‘98-2000 at the height of the tech mania.
    I’ll go further. When I see someone drunk up in first class on my flight, creating a ruckus, abusing the cabin crew-member who refuses them another drink - and then a week later see them representing a big Wall Street investment firm on Bloomberg TV touting certain stocks or sectors … I’m cautioned to stay far away!
    I’ve borrowed a cartoon from @Mark’s linked article.
    image