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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    If BB Fan means he’s 85% T-Bills that’s pretty conservative. Here: 47% equity / 30% bond / 15% short term and the rest “other”. I’ve always worked hard to keep volatility in check. The equity exposure is mostly through L/S funds & others that hedge in various ways. Very low volatility. Probably something along the lines of VWINX for daily and long term volatility. (Happy to say performance is superior - but VWINX seems to have fallen off a cliff lately). With some confidence volatility will remain low I’ve not much incentive to hold a lot of cash. I certainly understand the appeal of cash and would not question anyone’s decision to hold a lot. Just not how I’ve always done it.
    Crash is correct that one advantage of including individual stocks is that they often move opposite the broader market and can help hedge volatility shorter term. Of course, it can sometimes work in reverse. And selection is important in that regard as well.
  • Let's Breathe…
    We bought our two homes when interest rates were 10.5% and 8%. We refinanced the second mortgage when rates dropped to 6% and eventually paid it off at that rate. We survived.
  • HSAs
    IOW, a plan with a $300 deductible is not a high deductible plan.
    By design, high deductible, HSA-eligible health plans discourage use. Aside from free (no deductible) preventive care, they may cost so much to use that they are effectively just catastrophic insurance.
    They work for people in excellent health or those who expect to require major care (premiums + out of pocket cap can be smaller on these plans). They typically don't work as well for those approaching Medicare age, or more generally for people who use some but not a lot of health care goods and services.
    These two plans are very good, and the HDHP plan may be (slightly) better in most cases.
    Illustrating, where low use means just premiums and free annual preventive care and high use means premiums plus out of pocket cap. For medium care I add deductible and a few routine visits including specialists (say 6 specialist visits CPT 99213, quarterly PCP). For the regular plan, the copays come to 6 x $50 + 4 x $30.
    Regular plan: Low use $2400, medium use $3100 (approx), high use $5400
    HDHP plan: Low use $1200, medium use in the middle, high use $4200
    With the HDHP it's easy to hit the $4200 ($100/mo + $3000 cap) max, especially with Upper East Side doctors, even in network. So say in the medium case (just office visits, minor testing, nothing special) you're comparing $4200 to $3100. That's a difference of $1100. The tax savings (32% bracket) with an HSA is around 32% of $4K or around $1300.
    The HDHP may be close to a wash in the middle use range and better on both ends. That's not typical (usually the regular plan works out better in the middle).
    Regardless, it may not be a big enough difference one way or the other to be worth pursuing. Your friend might check with a Social Security office to see if Medicare disenrollment is possible. Out of curiosity if nothing else :-).
  • Let's Breathe…
    For 15+ years, we have been in a Bull Stock Market, bolstered by government stimulation and zero interest rates. That looks like an artificial set of conditions that was overdue to end. If you are holding your "breath" expecting those conditions to return anytime soon, I don't see that as likely. It appears that Banks are projecting 5% interest rates for quite a few more years, so stocks will likely have a formidable alternative for many investors' cash. I am breathing just fine with 5% interest rates, and I am not interested in "guessing" if we have hit the bottom of the stock market.
  • HSAs
    My friend sat down with HR yesterday and they had no experience with an employee unenrolling from Part A.
    However, they told her that if she is interested in an HSA that she would need to change healthcare plans. With her current plan, approximately $200 is taken out of her paycheck monthly. $300 yearly in-network deductible, $3,000 maximum out-of pocket limit, and mostly copays. $30/visit for her primary, $50/visit for a specialist, $30/visit for x-rays, and $10 copay / $25 copay for generic drugs. With the HSA eligible plan, it would cost her approximately $100 per month. $1,500 yearly in-network deductible, $3,000 maximum out-of pocket limit, and the coverages change from smallish copays to 20% coinsurance pretty much across the board.
    The combination of uncertainty regarding unenrolling and reenrolling with Medicare Part A and the inferior healthcare coverage, she decided pass on an HSA. Thanks all for your input!
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    I often find that my single-stock selections ying when the market in general yangs. Lately, that's often been a backdoor blessing. Biggest ever, so far? One just peeked its chin above 5% of my total portfolio. I hold 5 single stocks. A couple of them are still very tiny. I D-C-A into them in tiny bites. That suits me. It's my only option, strategically AND tactically. So, why beef about it? I get free money to play with every couple of weeks from the spouse-person. :)
    Total single-stock portion is still less than 13% of the full portfolio.
  • High Yield Bond
    Great interview on BINC.
    https://www.cnbc.com/etf-edge/
    He knows what he's talking about. I like to listen to him. So much crammed into 12 minutes, eh?
  • High Yearend Distributions
    PEOPX and DSPIX are two different funds, not two share classes of the same fund. PEOPX is projected to distribute "just" 5.7% of NAV.
    Useless trivia: PEOPX ticker comes from the Dreyfus fund's old (1990s) name: People's Index Fund. (A fund for the people? Your guess is as good as mine.)

    Google books search
    will dig up old copies of Kiplingers for info like this.
  • High Yearend Distributions
    Forgot to include BNY Mellon U.S. Equity Fund with a estimated total distribution of 38.6%.
    The STSCX distribution is expected to be $16.675 plus a small STCG. The closing price on 9/29 was $52.79 so the estimated distribution would be an estimated 31.72%.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/23
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/23
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    +25 bps except for Newer IRAs
    Restricted RC 7.00%, RA 6.75%
    Flexible RCP 6.25%, SRA 6.00%, Newer IRAs 5.20%
    TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous monthly rate was 4.75%).
    Edit/Add, 11/1/23. TSP G Fund is at 5% for November.
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #401k #403b #StableValue #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1236/thread
  • High Yield Bond
    Did either of you get the sense that Rieder, for all his smarts, was making the best case for his fund with the goal of attracting assets?
    Great question @BenWP
    Hard to say. What manager doesn’t want more assets? Nearly included in my earlier post: ”Rieder could sell ice to (the proverbial) Eskimo”
    But I felt it would be a bit unfair. Have watched him a few times on Bloomberg Wall Street Week and that’s just the way he typically is. Always seeing the glass ”half full” as BaluBalu said. In my mind, his professional integrity is very high.
    Certainly a lot of “experts” extolling bonds in today’s climate. Someone (likely a Barron’s contributor) commented that 1-3 years out they thought bonds would do better than equities, but that 5+ years out they liked equities better. Personally, I’ll side with a Mark Twain comment from Life on the Mississippi when his riverboat mentor asked him what the next bend in the river ahead was called - “I told him I didn’t know.”
    Anybody see a likeness to Peter Lynch? Lynch was a glass half-full guy. Always finding something good to invest in. Claimed his wife would return home from shopping for clothing & accessories with valuable insights into what companies to buy. I don’t know whether or not Lynch attracted any new assets into Magellan … Anybody remember? :)
  • High Yearend Distributions
    So, I shouldn't have added the AUMs from Fido (I thought I was simplifying things). Here are those as separate:
    PEOPX, ER 50 bps
    2021 $2.57 billion
    2022 $1.87 billion
    2023 $1.99 billion
    DSPIX, ER 21 bps
    2021 $3.20 billion
    2022 $2.04 billion
    2023 $1.90 billion
    That doesn't change the fact that 2022 was a huge outflow year, but 2023 in so-so.
    Not sure what extra info I got from this post. I got more from the earlier post where more information was packed into a smaller post which took less time to digest and was more efficient for me. Please continue the style of the earlier post. Members can always ask questions if they need more detail or they can go do further research on their own.
  • High Yearend Distributions
    So, I shouldn't have added the AUMs from Fido (I thought I was simplifying things). Here are those as separate:
    PEOPX, ER 50 bps
    2021 $2.57 billion
    2022 $1.87 billion
    2023 $1.99 billion
    DSPIX, ER 21 bps
    2021 $3.20 billion
    2022 $2.04 billion
    2023 $1.90 billion
    That doesn't change the fact that 2022 was a huge outflow year, but 2023 in so-so.
  • High Yearend Distributions
    PEOPX and DSPIX are two different funds, not two share classes of the same fund. PEOPX is projected to distribute "just" 5.7% of NAV.
    Useless trivia: PEOPX ticker comes from the Dreyfus fund's old (1990s) name: People's Index Fund. (A fund for the people? Your guess is as good as mine.)
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    I'll answer the question in a different manner...most I would ever put in one stock (such as ACGL?) would be 6 to 12 months of salary if still working or if I wasn't, 6 to 12months of my best year while I was....depending on my portfolio size.
    It's just a mental accounting thing for me...
    The other thought process that I am in alignment with is the Taleb portfolio...85% in Tbills, safe assets, 15% let 'er rip aggressively.....with that I might go 7.5% x 2 to get to the 15%...
    Interesting question....there has to be some kind of game theory answer that would make sense statistically, maybe?
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    Ben franklin said: ”Experience keeps a dear school. But a fool will learn in no other.”
    Sometime in August I revamped my static portfolio, including in it a 10% allocation to a single stock. It’s one of the largest food distributors in the world. And everybody needs to eat. Right? Wasn’t blind. Had owned and followed this one for around a year, but in lesser amounts.
    Anyhow, I ignored the combined wisdom of this board as well as warning flags from Fido’s (optional) portfolio analysis tool. The stock has fallen about 5-7% since than (but feels like more). Being in Europe, the company has been slammed by both the strong dollar and the new hysteria-causing weight reduction drugs like ozempic.
    After less than a month I divided the investment in two, adding a second (domestic.) stock. That helped. But it was still a tough road in terms of daily volatility. So this week I chopped it down again, adding a 3rd U.S. stock. At roughly 3.33% of portfolio apiece the ride has become a lot smoother. Whew! Appreciated all the board insights into my query back than. Just wanted to report back.
    (To be clear - I’m essentially a fund investor. The dalliance into stocks is new and limited to just the 3 noted.)
  • High Yield Bond
    +1 Yes - Nice interview. Some insights into bond investing. This week’s Barron’s refers to BINC (incorrectly) as a “high yield” fund. Not really. Rieder addresses various allocations. My readings on M* previously suggested around 35% HY. But it looks like it’s currently a lot lower than that. He really likes international. Perhaps waiting for ”the worm to turn” (against the Dollar) in the FX markets …
    Interviewer (Bob Pisani / CNBC) mentions the .40% ER. Neglected to add that that’s after a fee waiver.
    From the Prospectus: ”As described in the “Management” section of the Fund’s prospectus beginning on page 21, BFA has contractually agreed to waive 0.10% of its management fee payable, through June 30, 2025.”
    FWIW - I recently moved from JPIB into BINC. But the former is an excellent fund. Folks wanting to overweight international bonds might take a look at it. If I wanted an additional bond etf it would be JPIB.
  • TD to Schwab migration latest
    Brokerage mergers in my experience are always a PITA. Once the Schwab aquisition of TD was announced in 2020, I transferred my account over immediately to avoid being caught up in the (likely) chaos and disruption -- full margin, options, futures authorizations. But I've kept $1000 at TD to keep the account active and keep access to ThinkDesktop, which I really like (I despise StreetSmart). And apart from a few growing pains and grudgingly accepting their insane cash-management practices, I've been fairly pleased with Schwab.
    Anyway, Schwab rolled out ThinkDesktop last month for its customers ... heck, they're even advertising it during football games. But can I use the platform as a Schwab customer? Nope -- because my Schwab account has futures trading enabled on it.
    They said they could remove futures trading on my Schwab account and I'd have access to ThinkDesktop ... BUT I was warned that there was a good chance I'd have data errors with how the system calculates my buying power, and the rep rightly noted that could interfere with making trades. HUH? This seems like Merger 101-type of stuff that should've been figured out long ago.
    My alternative? If I want to get on ThinkDesktop sooner than 'sometime' in Spring '24, I would need to create a brand new Schwab account, transfer everything over to it, and then I'd have access to ThinkDesktop -- which apparently is running on a different network (presumably legacy TD/ThinkorSwim). And then futures access whenever they spin up futures trading on it.
    What an unbelievable runaround for a situation that never should've been allowed to happen!
  • High Yearend Distributions
    PEOPX / DSPIX (ER 50/21 bps) CG distribution looks strange.
    Its high outflows were in 2022. 2023 to 9/30/23 looks OK asset-wise. So, there must be huge turnover or churn to cause that high CG distribution in 2023 (or, is that data from last year?). Fido data on combined AUM:
    2021 $5.76 billion
    2022 $3.91 billion
    2023 $3.89 billion
    BoNY/Mellon has a storied history as among the 1st bank in the US (and Alexander Hamilton was among its founders). But who pays ER of 50/21 bps for SP500 index?