Finominal.com Review of VPMCX
- Focuses on U.S. large-cap growth stocks
- Impressive long-term track record, but has not outperformed since 2006
- Unfavorable style characteristics compared to its peers
https://finominal.com/

No moves. Just a serious case of whiplash. NSRGY lost over 5.5% yesterday down to $99.50 only to rise 6% today (as of 11:00 AM) to $105.50. My DCA cost was around $103. Nuts is all I can say.

He emphasized inflation "expectations" several times - it's monitoring or anchoring.
I see 2 common quantitative measures for "expectations":
1. Inflation-"expectation" = Nominal Treasury yield - TIPS yield.
FRED has data for 1, 2, 5, 10, 20+ years; chart below is for 5 years.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1t0dr
2. Fed fund futures rate "expectations" that are based on trader's expectations as indicated by futures quoted around future FOMC Meetings. In the link below, click on Probabilities on the side panel.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Then there are lots of opinions floating around - I don't pay much attention to those.

+1 @PRESSmUP
I’m never opposed to reaping short term profits, especially in a volatile and risky area like EM. Glad this worked out for you.

Looks like investors are about to get what they’ve been wishing for. Sure to move markets, but not necessarily in the ways expected. / Live Updates Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole.
From the WSJ : “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said in a speech at the central bank’s annual gathering in the Grand Teton National Park on Friday. “The time has come for policy to adjust.”
From Lewis Carroll’s ”The Walrus And The Carpenter” (poem)
"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
Of cabbages—and kings—
And why the sea is boiling hot—
And whether pigs have wings."

I knew they were a major player, but Fidelity apparently owns a ton of Twitter, based on the filing. What were they thinking????
Full list is here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-just-forced-reveal-120000372.html

FWIW, in our IL 529 plan, I relied mostly on balanced option thinking that I couldn't tweak things myself (1-2 trade per year rule; but can redirect new contributions). Basically untouched for 20+ years, it does add up.

Over at Stocktwits, a fellow had this to say, following the recent dividend distribution from ET Energy Transfer:
Just got off the Phone with Schwab....they are hand-entry entering clients back into drip program....shares were purchased at 15.79 a share but their website says 16.30....if you divide dividend amount by shares it will show the 15.79 cost.....if they bought your shares at 16.30 call them and complain and they will manually enter you into the DRIP program.
Well, my DRIP shares (reinvestment was ALREADY selected) show a reinvestment share price of $16.40.
I was just on with a chat agent, not a phone call. Easier to do, without the 16 identity questions. I showed him that precise message. He said he'd put in my request to get my own account corrected, updated. It'll take two days or so.
Next question: in effect, the chat agent and myself were doing the job of Quality Control, making sure things get ACCURATELY recorded. But nobody at Schwab is paying ME. And, will Schwab go do a re-run and correct the accounts of ALL concerned? We know the answer...

@larryB
Agree. The 529 rules are to benefit the beneficiary into their education future. Tis not an investment playground for those who contribute and/or manage the monies.
We had a few turns with the wee bit 'fiddle too much' syndrome is the way back days. We started with T-IRA's in the late 1970's. After a few 'you dumb arse'; everything may be smoothed. Keeping the 'twitchy aspect' is a difficult judgement decision that is full of temptations, if the investor 'doesn't know thy self' well enough.
I'm reminded of the standard questionnaire, as explained by those I've know who have used an adviser...... What is your risk tolerance? I'm sure most didn't know until January of 2009, when compared to their equity portfolio of 6 months previous.

I have done more than that and never lost more than 1% from any last top since retiring in 2018.
The "secrets" are 1) Mostly owning 2-3 bond funds at a huge % 2) switching bond fund = good timing 3) avoiding market losses.
There's no easy way to do it with low volatility. It took me over 20 years to master my system.
See how I did it at (link).

tyvm

Hey Catch. Maybe those rules, that seemed restrictive at first glance, are really for the investors benefit. We have all seen the numbers showing investors rarely get the numeric return that their fund delivered because of incessant tampering with their portfolio. Looking back on my investment life, which began in 1984, the biggest mistakes I made were just messing with the bits and pieces of my portfolio. We all can name certain participants of this group who bounce from one fund to another almost like changing shirts. It’s more like a sport than anything else. Fun perhaps. But probably costly.

Hi @larryB
One item that tempers folks from getting crazy with flipping monies in a 529 is the first set of 'rules' established by the gov't. regarding 529's. ONLY 1 change/exchange per calendar year to investment sectors. A few years ago, this was expanded to 2 portfolio changes/exchanges of holdings per calendar year. And of course, the investment style choices are the more standard choices. No exotic stuff.
If you're curious, a LIST of investment styles/choices at the Utah 529. Mostly Vanguard, some DFA and some state choices.
They're almost 'free' with some .02 ER's. There are also small, periodic administrative charges ($15), which is common with 529's.

@catch22: the 50/50 equity/bond portfolio is reset to 50/50 each September, per the contract
Unclear what kind of "contract"? Did you use one of the 2 annual exchanges allowed to rebalance, or a 529 advisor did it for you?
Was 529 all used up? SECURE 2.0 allows some residual funds (in 15+ year old 529 for funds in account for 5+ years) to be transferred to beneficiary's Roth IRA.

Catch. I like that a lot. At the end of the 18 years it probably beats chasing the fund of the hour every month. Less work, less stress , less second guessing yourself. My old man used to say, “you can second guess yourself to death Sonny boy !” Of course that plan would be highly regarded over at bogleheads and not be part of the MFO lifestyle. After all isn’t MFO all about finding “the best” funds and perpetually moving from one to the next as things inevitably change? Just sayin.

A real world example of a very lazy portfolio using two index funds.
Criteria:
--- 529 education account, open for 18 years
--- inception, May 2006
--- self directed with self choice(s) of investment sectors
--- 13 years of contributions (1st and 15th of each month) = $ cost averaging
--- 5 years to date; no additional contributions
--- the 50/50 equity/bond portfolio is reset to 50/50 each September, per the Utah 529 contract
The institutional funds (for 529 accounts) are VITPX (U.S. Total stock market) and VBMPX (U.S. Total IG bond market). All distributions reinvested in the fund(s).
The annualized returns data are from Vanguard, M* and the 529 account.
--- annualized 15 year combined return = 8.125%
--- YTD return = 10.47%
Remain curious,
Catch

I sold out of GQGIX after a 20% run up since a 4Q23 purchase. It feels a bit rich, and certainly has gotten quite big for an EM fund at ~$23B AUM. An 11% allocation to NVDA/AVGO certainly provided a boost over the past 2 years, but could also serve as a boat anchor if/when NVDA orders start to slow.

@BaluBalu
View two, SPY vs VWINX. Same time frame 2000 through 2011.
BINGO !!!

I have done more than that and never lost more than 1% from any last top since retiring in 2018.
The "secrets" are 1) Mostly owning 2-3 bond funds at a huge % 2) switching bond fund = good timing 3) avoiding market losses.
There's no easy way to do it with low volatility. It took me over 20 years to master my system.
See how I did it at (link).

@BaluBalu
One view. SPY vs FBALX

I would think bond funds and even VWINX may have done better than moderate allocation funds like FBALX. But for apples to apples, I was looking for blend funds.

@BaluBalu
One view. SPY vs FBALX