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Smart. This is the direction I'm heading, too, however tentatively. Bond holdings excepted.I used to but now that I've finally made up my mind to only index on the equity side (only took 20+ years lol) when it's gone it's gone. Anything sold now goes right into the index.... done.
Fine, right, recession, real-estate collapse, corporate credit blows out, rates go to zero, the 2008 of 2023. But then in March a couple of US banks failed, and many others came under a lot of stress, for exactly the opposite reason: Inflation was persistently high, interest rates went up, and those banks had to pay more on deposits even as their holdings of Treasury bonds lost value. Silicon Valley Bank was not subject to the Fed’s stress tests, as a mid-sized bank, but if it had been it would have done great! It did not do great in real life.The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession accompanied by a period of heightened stress in both commercial and residential real estate markets, as well as in corporate debt markets. The U.S. unemployment rate rises nearly 6½ percentage points from the starting point of the scenario in the fourth quarter of 2022 to its peak of 10 percent in the third quarter of 2024. The sharp decline in economic activity is also accompanied by an increase in market volatility, widening corporate bond spreads, and a collapse in asset prices, including a 38 percent decline in house prices and a 40 percent decline in commercial real estate prices. …
The rising unemployment rate and the rapid decline in aggregate demand for goods and services significantly reduce inflationary pressures. …
Short-term interest rates, as measured by the 3-month Treasury rate, fall significantly to near zero by the third quarter of 2023 and remain there for the remainder of the scenario. Long-term interest rates, as measured by the 10-year Treasury yield, fall by nearly 3¼ percentage points by the second quarter of 2023, and then gradually rise in late 2023 to about 1½ percent by the end of the scenario.
Yes."Today's results confirm that the banking system remains strong and resilient," Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr said. "At the same time, this stress test is only one way to measure that strength. We should remain humble about how risks can arise and continue our work to ensure that banks are resilient to a range of economic scenarios, market shocks, and other stresses."
This scenario doesn’t count for bank capital requirements — “Consistent with the nature of an exploratory exercise, the exploratory market shock will not contribute to the capital requirements set by this year’s stress test” — but it is intellectually interesting. Broadly speaking the big banks did a little better in this scenario than in the severe-recession scenario.In February 2023, for the first time, the Federal Reserve published an additional, exploratory market shock component that applied only to U.S. G-SIBs. The purpose of the stress test is to understand a firm’s resilience to a range of severe but plausible events, and the exploratory component furthers that purpose by posing a different set of risks than is probed by this year’s global market shock component.
In contrast to this year’s global market shock component, which was characterized by a severe recession with fading inflation expectations, the exploratory market shock is characterized by a less severe recession with greater inflationary pressures induced by higher inflation expectations, increases in interest rates, an appreciation of the U.S. dollar, and increases in commodity prices.
It's funny how 2 people look at the same numbers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q and come up with different opinions.Real wages are still higher than they were in three out of the four years of the previous administration prior to the Covid outbreak, and it's false to say every month. They just started to rise this year:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Meanwhile, the 3.7% unemployment rate is close to an all-time low:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
I compared LSLTX(99+% in stocks) to SP500 and LCORX(60+% stocks) to PRWCX.According to LCORX's Fact Sheet, its investment objective is: "Capital appreciation and income while maintaining prudence in terms of managing exposure to risk. Investment guidelines are 30%-70% equity exposure and 30%-70% fixed income." What is the value in comparing it to a 100% equity fund like SPY after the longest equity bull market in history just ended? PRWCX is a fairer comparison as is VBIAX, and PRWCX has been a terrific fund.
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