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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • High Yearend Distributions
    Forgot to include BNY Mellon U.S. Equity Fund with a estimated total distribution of 38.6%.
    The STSCX distribution is expected to be $16.675 plus a small STCG. The closing price on 9/29 was $52.79 so the estimated distribution would be an estimated 31.72%.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/23
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/23
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    +25 bps except for Newer IRAs
    Restricted RC 7.00%, RA 6.75%
    Flexible RCP 6.25%, SRA 6.00%, Newer IRAs 5.20%
    TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous monthly rate was 4.75%).
    Edit/Add, 11/1/23. TSP G Fund is at 5% for November.
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #401k #403b #StableValue #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1236/thread
  • High Yield Bond
    Did either of you get the sense that Rieder, for all his smarts, was making the best case for his fund with the goal of attracting assets?
    Great question @BenWP
    Hard to say. What manager doesn’t want more assets? Nearly included in my earlier post: ”Rieder could sell ice to (the proverbial) Eskimo”
    But I felt it would be a bit unfair. Have watched him a few times on Bloomberg Wall Street Week and that’s just the way he typically is. Always seeing the glass ”half full” as BaluBalu said. In my mind, his professional integrity is very high.
    Certainly a lot of “experts” extolling bonds in today’s climate. Someone (likely a Barron’s contributor) commented that 1-3 years out they thought bonds would do better than equities, but that 5+ years out they liked equities better. Personally, I’ll side with a Mark Twain comment from Life on the Mississippi when his riverboat mentor asked him what the next bend in the river ahead was called - “I told him I didn’t know.”
    Anybody see a likeness to Peter Lynch? Lynch was a glass half-full guy. Always finding something good to invest in. Claimed his wife would return home from shopping for clothing & accessories with valuable insights into what companies to buy. I don’t know whether or not Lynch attracted any new assets into Magellan … Anybody remember? :)
  • High Yearend Distributions
    So, I shouldn't have added the AUMs from Fido (I thought I was simplifying things). Here are those as separate:
    PEOPX, ER 50 bps
    2021 $2.57 billion
    2022 $1.87 billion
    2023 $1.99 billion
    DSPIX, ER 21 bps
    2021 $3.20 billion
    2022 $2.04 billion
    2023 $1.90 billion
    That doesn't change the fact that 2022 was a huge outflow year, but 2023 in so-so.
    Not sure what extra info I got from this post. I got more from the earlier post where more information was packed into a smaller post which took less time to digest and was more efficient for me. Please continue the style of the earlier post. Members can always ask questions if they need more detail or they can go do further research on their own.
  • High Yearend Distributions
    So, I shouldn't have added the AUMs from Fido (I thought I was simplifying things). Here are those as separate:
    PEOPX, ER 50 bps
    2021 $2.57 billion
    2022 $1.87 billion
    2023 $1.99 billion
    DSPIX, ER 21 bps
    2021 $3.20 billion
    2022 $2.04 billion
    2023 $1.90 billion
    That doesn't change the fact that 2022 was a huge outflow year, but 2023 in so-so.
  • High Yearend Distributions
    PEOPX and DSPIX are two different funds, not two share classes of the same fund. PEOPX is projected to distribute "just" 5.7% of NAV.
    Useless trivia: PEOPX ticker comes from the Dreyfus fund's old (1990s) name: People's Index Fund. (A fund for the people? Your guess is as good as mine.)
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    I'll answer the question in a different manner...most I would ever put in one stock (such as ACGL?) would be 6 to 12 months of salary if still working or if I wasn't, 6 to 12months of my best year while I was....depending on my portfolio size.
    It's just a mental accounting thing for me...
    The other thought process that I am in alignment with is the Taleb portfolio...85% in Tbills, safe assets, 15% let 'er rip aggressively.....with that I might go 7.5% x 2 to get to the 15%...
    Interesting question....there has to be some kind of game theory answer that would make sense statistically, maybe?
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    Ben franklin said: ”Experience keeps a dear school. But a fool will learn in no other.”
    Sometime in August I revamped my static portfolio, including in it a 10% allocation to a single stock. It’s one of the largest food distributors in the world. And everybody needs to eat. Right? Wasn’t blind. Had owned and followed this one for around a year, but in lesser amounts.
    Anyhow, I ignored the combined wisdom of this board as well as warning flags from Fido’s (optional) portfolio analysis tool. The stock has fallen about 5-7% since than (but feels like more). Being in Europe, the company has been slammed by both the strong dollar and the new hysteria-causing weight reduction drugs like ozempic.
    After less than a month I divided the investment in two, adding a second (domestic.) stock. That helped. But it was still a tough road in terms of daily volatility. So this week I chopped it down again, adding a 3rd U.S. stock. At roughly 3.33% of portfolio apiece the ride has become a lot smoother. Whew! Appreciated all the board insights into my query back than. Just wanted to report back.
    (To be clear - I’m essentially a fund investor. The dalliance into stocks is new and limited to just the 3 noted.)
  • High Yield Bond
    +1 Yes - Nice interview. Some insights into bond investing. This week’s Barron’s refers to BINC (incorrectly) as a “high yield” fund. Not really. Rieder addresses various allocations. My readings on M* previously suggested around 35% HY. But it looks like it’s currently a lot lower than that. He really likes international. Perhaps waiting for ”the worm to turn” (against the Dollar) in the FX markets …
    Interviewer (Bob Pisani / CNBC) mentions the .40% ER. Neglected to add that that’s after a fee waiver.
    From the Prospectus: ”As described in the “Management” section of the Fund’s prospectus beginning on page 21, BFA has contractually agreed to waive 0.10% of its management fee payable, through June 30, 2025.”
    FWIW - I recently moved from JPIB into BINC. But the former is an excellent fund. Folks wanting to overweight international bonds might take a look at it. If I wanted an additional bond etf it would be JPIB.
  • TD to Schwab migration latest
    Brokerage mergers in my experience are always a PITA. Once the Schwab aquisition of TD was announced in 2020, I transferred my account over immediately to avoid being caught up in the (likely) chaos and disruption -- full margin, options, futures authorizations. But I've kept $1000 at TD to keep the account active and keep access to ThinkDesktop, which I really like (I despise StreetSmart). And apart from a few growing pains and grudgingly accepting their insane cash-management practices, I've been fairly pleased with Schwab.
    Anyway, Schwab rolled out ThinkDesktop last month for its customers ... heck, they're even advertising it during football games. But can I use the platform as a Schwab customer? Nope -- because my Schwab account has futures trading enabled on it.
    They said they could remove futures trading on my Schwab account and I'd have access to ThinkDesktop ... BUT I was warned that there was a good chance I'd have data errors with how the system calculates my buying power, and the rep rightly noted that could interfere with making trades. HUH? This seems like Merger 101-type of stuff that should've been figured out long ago.
    My alternative? If I want to get on ThinkDesktop sooner than 'sometime' in Spring '24, I would need to create a brand new Schwab account, transfer everything over to it, and then I'd have access to ThinkDesktop -- which apparently is running on a different network (presumably legacy TD/ThinkorSwim). And then futures access whenever they spin up futures trading on it.
    What an unbelievable runaround for a situation that never should've been allowed to happen!
  • High Yearend Distributions
    PEOPX / DSPIX (ER 50/21 bps) CG distribution looks strange.
    Its high outflows were in 2022. 2023 to 9/30/23 looks OK asset-wise. So, there must be huge turnover or churn to cause that high CG distribution in 2023 (or, is that data from last year?). Fido data on combined AUM:
    2021 $5.76 billion
    2022 $3.91 billion
    2023 $3.89 billion
    BoNY/Mellon has a storied history as among the 1st bank in the US (and Alexander Hamilton was among its founders). But who pays ER of 50/21 bps for SP500 index?
  • New I-Bond Rate, 11/1/23
    New I-Bond Rate, 11/1/23
    Annual base/fixed rate (b) 1.30%.
    Semiannual inflation rate (f) 1.9723%
    Composite rate = b + 2f + bf.
    So, the I-Bond rate from 11/1/23 is 5.27%.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/
  • High Yearend Distributions
    BNY Mellon Institutional S&P 500 Stock Index Fund is paying a total distribution of 19.7%.
  • NHYDY. Inspector Clouseau would say.....
    31 October, 2023: at last, I received a prompt and coherent response via email. What she provided was a direct link, in order to file for a repayment of the over-withholding that the lovely and fabulous Norwegian government no doubt required Norsk Hydro to keep from me. (They withheld 25%, but the tax treaty with the USA mandates only 15% withholding. I only just now found that out, after clicking on the link provided.)
    That same link advises that in order to apply for the refund on overpaid taxes, I must create a user name and set up a bloody account with the Norway tax authority, and jump through way more hoops than any of this is worth. So, I just won't be adding to my NHYDY position. When the share price rises sufficiently out of the red ink, and perhaps after NEXT year's dividend arrives, I'll exit NHYDY.
    ...Now, let's see what happens with Tenaris: HQ in Luxembourg....... (TS.)
  • Selling Like Hotcakes - PIMIX, DODIX
    Your comments regarding bond funds in 2022 and 2023 are spot-on.
    You have a knack for reporting past performance.
    I'm much more interested in future bond fund performance.
    Can you tell me which bond funds or bond categories will outperform over the next 5 Yr/10 Yr?
    Thanks in advance!
    "Nice" comment. I'm a bond trader, not a holder, and I never predict or invest based on that. I do base my investment on what is doing well currently using my own proprietary system that is easy to execute and takes just minutes per week.
    I used to open threads annually and keep posting what and how I do it.
    The trolls kept interrupting and why I don't do it anymore.
    Sometimes, I post what I do and how. BTW, in 2022-3 I posted several hints when I was out, in, and what I traded.
    I have talked about bank loans for years for rising rates.
    Also posted many times why I have preferred RCTIX over PIMIX for years.
    ...you just didn't pay attention.
    I have been holding 2 bond OEFs for several months and they are nicely up while most others lost money. This can continue 1-4-8-more weeks or ends tomorrow.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/23
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/23
    There were noticeable shifts out from stocks into bond & m-mkt funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $31.91 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $319.1 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #Funds #OEFs #ETFs #ICI
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 57.72%, Hybrids 4.83%, Bonds 19.08%, M-Mkt 18.37%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1231/thread
  • 3M T-Bill Observations
    @yogibearbull
    Are you increasing duration ?
    Anybody thinking about a bond ladder? what rungs are you using?
    Ishares has ETFs that mature at the end of every year A ten year ladder yields 4.91%
  • Selling Like Hotcakes - PIMIX, DODIX
    @JD_co, many investors are extending their bond maturities as the FED is near the terminal rate hike. There may be one more hike in Nov/Dec rate hike. The rate is likely stay there for awhile unless the economy tanks and slides into recession. The 5% yield money market May not be there several years from now. Money flow into intermediate term bonds has started and likely to increase into next year that fits the Q1 comment above.
  • HSAs
    Certainly she can ask HR what she can do, recognizing that HR likely had nothing to do with her initial enrollment. I have my doubts about prospects for success, but there's no harm in asking.
    CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) is the Medicare regulatory agency (authority) within HHS much as the IRS is the taxation regulatory agency within the Treasury Dept. And much as the IRS puts out Pubs which can have errors (they are not the regulations themselves), CMS puts out material for public consumption that can have errors. In both instances, errors are not common but they're certainly possible.
    So when CMS says that disenrolling from non-premium Part A Medicare is against the law, it's possible that this agency is misstating its own regs. Not likely, but possible.
    Here's CMS form 1763 for terminating Medicare coverage.
    https://www.cms.gov/medicare/cms-forms/cms-forms/downloads/cms1763.pdf
    It is titled: REQUEST FOR TERMINATION OF PREMIUM PART A, PART B, OR
    PART B IMMUNOSUPPRESSIVE DRUG COVERAGE
    It begins:
    WHO CAN USE THIS FORM?
    People with Medicare premium Part A or B who would like
    to terminate their hospital or medical insurance coverage.
    Is it possible that there's a different form for non-premium Part A beneficiaries to terminate coverage? Sure, but not likely since this form covers all other situations.
    We can go back to the Wellesley College page with info from HSA Resources to observe some oddities.
    First, this is an old page (not disqualifying, but curious). The pdf creation date is  11/22/2016. That's consistent with the fact that HSA Resources was acquired by Select Account in Dec 2016.
    (FWIW, SelectAccount was renamed Further and acquired by HealthEquity in 2021.)
    More important is how it suggests that disenrollment is dated differently depending on whether one is receiving SS checks. If you are receiving checks, it says that you are supposed to pay back any Medicare money spent on claims. Effectively, this is undoing the Medicare enrollment entirely. OTOH, it doesn't say that you have to refund Medicare benefits received if you're not receiving SS checks. It seems you are allowed to keep Medicare benefits received up to the time of disenrollment request.
    What this page is doing is misquoting the rules for undoing registration for Social Security (not Medicare) benefits:
    The request to withdraw a [Social Security retirement] application must be made in writing. Anyone who receives benefits based on the client's application must consent in writing to the withdrawal. Additionally, all benefits previously received must be repaid. This includes:
    • Benefits received by family members;
    • Money withheld for Medicare premiums;
    • Money withheld for voluntary tax withholding; and
    • Money withheld for garnishments.
    https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2023/mar/how-to-reverse-course-collecting-social-security.html
    You have to repay the Medicare premiums not the Medicare benefits, from start until termination. That is, you have Medicare throughout, but the premium payments come from you and not your Social Security check if you undo those checks. And it terminates SS benefits, not Medicare enrollment.
    The one item I have found that supports the idea that any Medicare Part A can be voluntarily terminated is in the Medicare statute itself (42 U.S. Code § 1395q(b)(1)):
    An individual’s coverage period shall continue until his enrollment has been terminated—
    (1) by the filing of notice that the individual no longer wishes to participate in the insurance program established by this part,
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395q
    That says only that such a filing will terminate coverage. It doesn't specify the conditions under which such filing is permitted. Such as being charged a Part A premium. Those conditions may be in the regs, which gets us right back to CMS.