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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GEV any takers yet?
    @yogibearbull and anyone else that owns GE and GEV,
    do you mind sharing if in your brokerage account, the gain shown for GE is only about 15% higher than that for GEV? More info in my previous post in this thread.
  • GEV any takers yet?
    I received GEHC and GEV from owning GE. I understood these to be tax free spin offs in which case the cost basis in my GE shares should be allocated to GEHC and GEV proportionate to the fair value on the date of distribution. Looking at my account, GE has 163%, GEHC has 58%, GEV has 115% gain, respectively. The newest one is GEV which had more appreciation in stock price than GE since GEV debut on March 28. Though charts show GEV stock price from March 28, evidently the spin off happened before the market open on April 2. GEV stock price has lost about 10% (more than 8% just today) while GE stock price appreciated about 5% since the spin off. I am not sure why GEV gain is so much lower than GE's gain. What am I missing?
    (I did not pay attention to the cost basis after GEHC spin off.)
    Just want to make sure I adjust / correct the cost basis in my brokerage account if the brokerage is not doing it correctly.
    Foot note of this filing gives the dates -
    http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20240404/AG2ZBQ22Z222RZP2222E2Z42NLKSZK22BA62/
  • CD
    @Tarwheel concisely and accurately stated "Nobody knows where longer term rates are headed, despite all of the punditry." I would add that it's also regularly called a fool's game.
    True story: Years ago and for a coupla years, I was diligently (some say "anally") projecting my defined benefit pension plan lump sum payment (one of three defined benefit pension plans in our household) that was largely driven by a coupla factors including the 10-yr rate. During one of those years, one of the most reliable investment houses projected a 3.5% change in the 10-yr in the coming 12 months. And voila! Amazingly they nailed the % move EXACTLY! Well, except for the all important direction of the move, which they said was going to be DOWN, but instead went (Oopsy!) UP.
    The strategy for owning a CP CD ladder as one's fixed income sleeve has been posted about ad nauseum on this forum. I know that's true because I am one of its leading proponents and made a ton of posts about it. Any otherwise reasonably intelligent investor on this forum who still doesn't get it needs to go back and re-read some of the many other threads on the topic over the past year or so. It's pretty simple.
    Basically, what are you hoping for (and I ask that pointedly as IMO, hope is what you're dealing with here) out of your dedicated bond funds over the next 5-yr period. 4%? 5%? 6%? And if your hopes are in that range, why did you NOT (when the option was available - it ain't now) instead take the stress, guessing and hoping out of the equation and guarantee a 5+% APY from an FDIC'd, CP CD 5-yr ladder?
    BTW, the venerable Art Cashin used to routinely remind us, "I learned long ago that hope is not a viable, long-term investment strategy."
    Disclaimer_1: We own a 5-yr CP CD ladder paying 5+% APY as our fixed income sleeve and it now serves as self-insurance for our projected LTC needs. The current 5-yr CP CD rate is still over our % hurdle and we continue to replace rungs as they fall off. This strategy has given us WAY more time to spend on our stock sleeve (IMO, where real money is made) and the extra time and effort afforded us by the ladder has resulted in blowout TRs over the past 1-to-1 1/2 years as we've accurately identified some of the best places to be in that market (that is, US, AI, LCG and Semis).
    Disclaimer_2: I'm tired of posting the same thing over-and-over again and I trust some forum participants are tired of reading it as well. So this will be my last time. For those who still don't get it, maybe try reading it s-l-o-w-l-y one last time?
  • Behavioral Economics Pioneer Daniel Kahneman Dies
    M* JR has a great piece on Kahneman (& Tversky, his mathematical collaborator who died young at 59 in 1996). After the Nobel in 2002, Kahneman said that it was really joint for him AND Tversky, but unfortunately, Nobel isn't awarded posthumously.
    https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/daniel-kahneman-unlikely-economist
  • GEV any takers yet?
    If you own GE, then you know own GEHC and GEV. We’ve got GE shares that we’ve own for 40-50 years. It’s finally starting to regain some of the value it lost over the past 20 years. My wife’s grandfather gave her the original shares, and she hasn’t wanted to sell for sentimental reasons. If we do sell, figuring out the cost basis would be a nightmare because we reinvested dividends until the past few years when the yield was cut.
  • CD
    Nobody knows where longer term rates are headed, despite all of the punditry. The so-called experts have wrong repeatedly. I deal with the uncertainty by covering all of the bases. My CD ladders extend out 5 years, and when issues mature, I reinvest where I can get the best yield furthest out. Long term, I assume my intermediate bond funds will eventually start gaining value again, particularly if rates drop.
    My CD ladder in taxable savings is heavy on the short end, with issues maturing every 1-3 months. My IRA ladders have issues maturing about every 6 months.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/3/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/3/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (47.3%; high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (22.2%, low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (30.5%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +25.1% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (110+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (25+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar flat. Good seasonality from Nov 1 - Apr 30; Q1 was best for SP500 since 2019. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1424/thread
  • CD
    So do we think the 5 to 10 yr Treasury rates are going down or higher which of course will have an impact on the 5+ yr CD rates?
    Everyone on TV seems to be correlating equity prices to rate cuts by the Fed Reserve. I would have thought equity prices (discounted cash flows) and housing activity are impacted by 10 yr treasury rates. I can see a situation where the curve steepens: Fed cuts rates and 10 yr Treasury rates go high and stay high because of fiscal policy (deficits). How does that help equity prices, except from the slight boost in economic activity? I think a lot of consumer loan rates and businesses' working capital financing rates depend indirectly on the short end of the curve. Why are the equity quacks debating ad nauseam on TV whether the Fed will cut rates and by how much in 2024?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BenWP, I did not get as far as looking at the portfolio. You are right, the index description does not match with the current holdings. Now that I look at the stock style, only in 1 out of the past 5 years it was in large caps. Since it claims to select factors based on the stage of the economic cycle and given the fund currently is in high value, low quality, small to mid caps, I am guessing the index provider must think we are at the beginning of an economic cycle. I was drawn to its dynamic (not on a preset time line) rebalancing (almost like an active fund). I do invest in the mid cap space but I prefer real active management for that space. The only exception I make is for XMHQ (rebalanced twice a year). I still think OMFL, as a dynamic multi factor fund, can be profitable if the index provider gets economic cycles and market conditions right. Evidently, we are off the norms because of Covid but the index provider is able to stay with or ahead of SPY.
  • ET on a tear
    Oil/gas midstream.
    Many perceive Seeking Alpha to be clickbait. Since (somehow) I have managed to get access to what previously had been blocked, I've been reading a lot on that website. Just one more consideration; one more source to check before buying or selling, or just plain learning.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4681656-energy-transfer-moving-americas-energy-at-40-percent-discount-to-peers
    03 April, 2024: new 52-week high.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "I am surprised SPDR is able to direct flows into the higher ER SPY while they have >75% cheaper SPLG."
    Just a guess but that may be due to the fact that many investors of all sizes find or perceive SPY to be more liquid or tradeable.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I looked up OMFL as I did not come across that ETF. Pretty interesting and another of good Invesco product. 6 year old and has $6.5B AUM. "The Fund and Index are reconstituted and rebalanced based on economic indicator signal changes, as frequently as monthly. The Index is constructed using a rules-based approach that re-weights large-cap securities of the Russell 1000 Index according to economic cycles and market conditions, reflected by expansion, slowdown, contraction or recovery. The securities are assigned a multi-factor score from one of five investment styles: value, momentum, quality, low volatility and size."
    P.S.: I am surprised SPDR is able to direct flows into the higher ER SPY while they have >75% cheaper SPLG.
  • Never seen the like. Overnight Futures: TS
    ...And TS is up 2% today to a 52-week high. Share buy-back underway. Those re-bought shares are to be canceled. Laughing and weeping here at the same time. It's my smallest holding, almost.
  • Fido ETF Fees
    Fidelity Fee Schedule, https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Brokerage_Commissions_Fee_Schedule.pdf
    "Certain ETF sponsors pay an asset-based fee in support of their ETFs on Fidelity’s platform that supports services including related shareholder support services, the provision of calculation and analytical tools, as well as general investment research and education materials regarding ETFs. Fidelity does not receive payment from these ETF sponsors to promote any particular ETF to its customers, and these ETF shares are not marginable for 30 days after purchase. Customers purchasing shares in a limited number of ETFs that are not supported by their providers will be subject to a $100 service fee.
    ...
    FundsNetwork Transaction-Fee Funds
    Purchases:

    Online: $49.95 or $100 per purchase. To identify any applicable transaction fees associated with the purchase of a given fund, please refer to the “Fees and Distributions” tab on the individual fund page on Fidelity.com
    ...
    • FundsNetwork No Transaction Fee (NTF) Funds and ETFs
    – For funds participating in the NTF program and certain ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation that can typically range from 0 to 50 basis points based on the average daily balance. As of 12/31/2022, 68% of the mutual funds currently in the NTF program are in the
    35–40 basis point range. For NTF funds with a 12b-1 fee, the fund family may use the 12b-1 fee as part of its NTF payment.
    • FundsNetwork Transaction Fee (TF) Funds
    – For funds participating in the TF program, Fidelity receives compensation based on: (1) per-position fees that typically range from $3 to $25 per brokerage account or (2) asset-based fees that typically range from 0 to 20 basis points based on average daily assets. As of 12/31/2022, 63% of the mutual funds participating in the TF program are in the $12–$19 per-position fee range or 8 to 12 basis point range. TF compensation is in addition to any 12b-1 fees as described in the fund’s prospectus."
    There is also news that some of the 9 are considering making a deal with Fido, or reimbursing buyers for Fido fees (that can be complicated). But doing nothing may be a death warrant for them. If these Fido fees stick, others brokers will follow.
  • Fido ETF Fees
    "Customers purchasing these ETFs and mutual funds will be charged a service fee of up to $100."
    I am reading this to mean the fees is applicable when purchasing and not when selling which if true, existing positions should be exempt from the fees?
    I am assuming the $100 fees is in lieu of the $50 transaction fees applied on TF mutual funds. I am fairly certain mutual funds subject to these enhanced(?) fees, would not qualify for $5 auto invest.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought 10 shares of NSRGY @ under $105 and 24 bottles of S. Pellegrino.
    @Crash. I’d like to echo @Old_Joe’s congrats on maintaining this enjoyable thread.
  • WealthTrack Show
    March 23rd Episode:
    Causeway Capital’s Sarah Ketterer describes a range of global companies with outstanding values.

  • A replicating portfolio. Devo's April exercise
    Great!
    I had set SP500 as the benchmark ticker, so all my PV runs defaulted to it. This may not even be a new feature.
  • A replicating portfolio. Devo's April exercise
    FYI, separate PV runs for core-plus FBND & foreign VXUS show US stock market benchmark for MPT data.
    Same when multiple funds or portfolios are run.
    MFO Premium Watchlist (extended results) show fund beta with respect to SP500 AND Best-Fit-Benchmark (BF-BM), but BF-BM are NOT identified. MFO Premium doesn't provide this info for funds or portfolio.