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.Someone on Big Bang! recently started a thread titled "How can we match or beat PRWCX?"
A very long time ago (more than 30+ years), there was a Winston cigarette jingle: It's not how long you make it (30+ years), it's how you make it long (building assets in T. Rowe Price).My Roth IRA is mostly with T Rowe Price but I’ve gradually been moving from TRP to Fidelity funds. I’m ticked at TRP for not letting me invest in PRWCX even though I’ve invested with them for 30+ years.
@Baseball_Fan - You made a wise call start of 2022 in choosing HSGFX. Hussie’s not doing so well this year with HSGFX down 9.75% YTD (Reversion to the Mean?) I don’t know where equities are going from here. Your guess at least as good as mine (probably better). I’ve carried a 2-2.5% short position on the S&P for several months and intend to keep it. Of course it hurts a little. My thinking, however, is that it allows me to take additional market risk in other areas.Trap door market coming soon? AI bubblicious? Tax receipts way down. Ukraine Russia war getting even bloodier? Waaaaay overvalued stonk market? Hmm
I agree @Mark. I suspect however the bullish sentiment is still in the early stages. Hell, Barron’s just went bullish one week ago.My preference is to look for buys when sentiment is negative and hardly ever when bullish unless we're coming off a blowup to the downside.
But inflation proved the perfect issue to enable Summers to regain the spotlight. Intellectually, Summers had been deeply formed by the monetarist revolution instigated by Milton Friedman in the 1970s—which held that a key way to hold down inflation was to raise interest rates in order to increase unemployment (and thereby keep wages in check). In early 2021, Summers began sounding the alarm that the stimulus spending Biden and the Democrats had used to keep the economy afloat during Covid was going to lead to a sharp rise in inflation. When inflation did in fact rise, Summers basked in the role of the prophet vindicated.
But Summers’s rehabilitation rested on an illusion. As Eric Levitz notes in a recent New York magazine article, all evidence suggests that while Summers was right to predict inflation, he was completely wrong about both the causes of that inflation and the best means to fight it. Speaking at the London School of Economics in June 2022, Summers said that “we need five years of unemployment above 5 percent to contain inflation—in other words, we need two years of 7.5 percent unemployment or five years of 6 percent unemployment or one year of 10 percent unemployment.” This is the standard Friedman prescription of a short, sharp shock of unemployment to defeat inflation—the same remedy followed by Paul Volcker in the late 1970s and early ’80s. Those policies, of course, led to the long-term defeat of American labor unions and the rise of Reaganite neoliberalism.
But that scenario was not repeated under Biden. As Levitz reports, Summers’s "call for austerity was premised on the notion that only a sharp increase in unemployment could prevent a ruinous wage-price spiral. In reality, both wage and price growth have been slowing for months, even as unemployment has remained near historic lows. Summers’s failure to anticipate this outcome should lead us to reconsider just how prescient his analysis of the post-Covid economy ever was."
The core problem, Levitz adds, is that from the beginning, [Summers’s] analysis was predicated on the idea that excessive stimulus would lead to unsustainably low unemployment and thus wage-driven inflation. There has never much reason to believe that the labor market was the primary driver of post-Covid price growth. And at this point, it’s abundantly clear that, in 2023 America, a tight labor market will not inevitably trigger a wage-price spiral.
If the Federal Reserve follows Summers’s advice and keeps raising interest rates until the economy hits “five years of unemployment above 5 percent,” then millions of people will suffer for absolutely no reason other than as human sacrifices to a discredited economic theory.
Far from vindicating Summers, inflation is yet another case where he got a big issue wrong. It joins a long list of such errors. As Binyamin Appelbaum documented in his fine book The Economists’ Hour (2015), while serving as deputy Treasury secretary in 1998, Summers took it upon himself to bully staffers who were pushing for the regulation of credit derivatives—the banking practice that led to the housing bubble and 2008 crash. Summers even called one staffer, Brooksley Born, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, into his office to scream, “I have 13 bankers in my office who tell me you’re going to cause the worst financial crisis since the end of World War II.” Ironically, it was Summers’s own failure to heed Born’s advice that caused that very crisis. In 2005, Summers derided critics of the deregulated credit default swap market as “slightly Luddites.”
From Envision's recent (May 15) press release:In December 2021, the American Academy of Emergency Medicine Physician Group (A.A.E.M.P.G.), part of an association of doctors, residents and medical students, filed a lawsuit accusing Envision Healthcare, a private-equity-backed provider, of violating a California statute that prohibits nonmedical corporations from controlling the delivery of health services. Private-equity firms often circumvent these restrictions by transferring ownership, on paper, to doctors, even as the companies retain control over everything, including the terms of the physicians’ employment and the rates that patients are charged for care, according to the lawsuit. A.A.E.M.P.G.’s aim in bringing the suit is not to punish one company but rather to prohibit such arrangements altogether.
https://www.envisionhealth.com/news/2023/envision-healthcare-reaches-restructuring-agreementEnvision Healthcare Corp. (“Envision”) today announced it and certain of its wholly owned subsidiaries have filed voluntary petitions for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Envision has entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) with its key stakeholders supported by more than 60 percent of the company’s approximately $7.7 billion in debt obligations and expects that support will continue to grow in the coming days. The terms of the RSA establish the framework for a consensual and comprehensive restructuring that will position Envision and AMSURG for future growth as two separate businesses.
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Under the terms of the RSA, the AMSURG and Envision Physician Services businesses will be separately owned by certain of their respective lenders. AMSURG will purchase the surgery centers held by Envision for $300 million plus a waiver of intercompany loans held by AMSURG LLC. All of Envision’s debt, with the exception of a revolving credit facility for working capital, will be equitized or cancelled, deleveraging approximately $5.6 billion.
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2018 acquisition by KKR & Co.,
https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/envision-chapter-11-bankruptcy/650277/The bankruptcy wipes out private equity firm KKR’s investment in Envision. In 2018, the PE firm shelled out over $5 billion in 2018 to take Envision private, in a deal valued at $9.9 billion including debt. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that an Envision bankruptcy filing would be one of the steepest losses in KKR’s history.
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