CPI was OK, headline at +4.0% lower than expected (exp +4.2% yoy), but core at +5.3% higher (exp +5.2%).
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-highly-anticipated-consumer-price-index-cpi-202306130542

Inflation number looks encouraging for Tuesday reporting.

The consumer price index, set to be released Tuesday at 8:30 a.m ET, is expected to show that all-items inflation increased just 0.1% last month, equating to a 4% annual rate, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% and 5.3%, respectively.

https://cnbc.com/2023/06/12/inflation-report-tuesday-will-be-critical-for-the-direction-of-fed-policy.html

I too think the upcoming FOMC meeting and CPI reporting this week have unusual observation. Surprising CPI data could change the tune just as Canada and Australia hiked their rate unexpectedly.
Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley has been bearish for a long time and he forecasts S&P 500 to fall to 3,000 this year as the earnings fall.

On Monday 6/12/23, VIX up on up market day was unusual. SKEW also was up (i.e. puts more expensive than calls).
Do the FOMC on Wednesday and options expiry on Friday explain this?
Seemed slow news day.
VIX1D 16.75 +44.52%
VIX9D 15.35 +15.50%
VIX 15.01 +8.53% (that is really VIX30D)
SKEW 157.71 (very high) +3.23%
SP500 4,338.93 +0.93%
https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^VIX1D,^VIX9D,^VIX,^SKEW,^SPX/view/v1

Thank you Mark for this post information, and @yogibearbull for your added information, too. We've had accounts with Fido for 45 years, and the organization remains progressive and easy to deal with.

ROLL BREAKEVEN YIELD
What is the tradeoff between buying x-yr now and roll vs buying 2x-yr now?
Yield for x-yr now = ix%
Yield for 2x-yr now = i2x%
Roll Breakeven Yield for x-yr in x years = iroll%
The Roll Breakeven formula is:
iroll = 2*i2x - ix
Example: T-Bill 1-yr vs T-Note 2-yr, 6/11/23
1-yr 5.17%
2-yr 4.59%
Roll Breakeven 4.01%
So, if YOU think that 1-yr will be higher than 4.01% in 1 year, buy 1-yr T-Bill now and then roll; if YOU think that 1-yr will be lower than 4.01% in 1-yr, buy 2-yr T-Note now. So, YOU don't have to look for what the others in the media are saying.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/456/roll-breakeven-yield

As for water:

Irrigated agriculture is the largest user of water in Arizona, consuming about 74 percent of the available water supply.

In Maricopa county agriculture uses 61.7% of the water.

What is the county getting out of that use of water?

Maricopa County is a livestock-dominant county, with 61% of agricultural cash receipts originating from livestock and its products and 39% from sales of crops. Maricopa County is a major agricultural producer ranking in the top 1% of counties in the U.S. for sales of milk, other crops and hay, and vegetables and melons. Major agricultural commodities by sales includemilk from cows ($487.7 million), vegetables, melons, potatoes, and sweet potatoes ($163.1 million), other crops and hay ($129.5 million), and nursery, greenhouse, floriculture, and sod ($123.7 million)

Just a reminder that hay is alfalfa. one of the most water-intensive crops on the planet. Any of you folks think Maricopa should be spending water resources on hay production that generated some part of 129.5 million bucks in 2020?

The day last week it was reported that Phoenix may limit housing tract permitting, water ETFs (PHO and FIW) jumped. I have owned the latter through thick and thin since 2018. SPY has returned about 55% for those 5 years, while the two water funds have gained some 75%. CGW, however, has lagged SPY.

If you tell the Fido Rep that you tried online order but it isn't working or isn't available, then the Rep fee is typically waived. Mention it upfront to remove doubt.

Thanks @yogibearbull. Recently I called Fido to make sure a recent “sell” had settled, as it wasn’t yet showing up on the account page. I wanted to use proceeds for another purchase (and avoid a free-ride violation). The rep confirmed the settlement and offered to put the purchase through for me. I politely declined, assuming (perhaps incorrectly) there would be a charge for the service.
Honestly, it has been a pleasure to deal with Fido after what amounted to torture for the last year with TRP. Fido’s agents speak fluent English, are usually available in a minute or so, and are extremely knowledgeable. If the call needs to be transferred to a different department, the wait may be longer. Well worth the wait. Sometimes I’ll be put on a 3-4 minute hold while the agent checks the records. But nothing like the lengthy waits I’d become accustomed to at TRP.
BTW: Barron’s this week features an extensive discussion of brokerages along with its annual ranking. Fidelity and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) tied for first place, with 5-stars each. Schwab placed third, with 3.5 stars, but stood out for its excellent customer service.

Posted on Twitter, https://twitter.com/YBB_Finance/status/1668048779285504003
YBB Personal Finance
@YBB_Finance
The image seems mislabeled by Getty Images (I found it by Google search) as a bull, but several people verified that it's a cow! The WSJ may get a refund from Getty Images.
Otherwise, cows are running on Wall Street.
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/bull-standing-in-field-royalty-free-image/200455053-001

@BaluBalu, a Google search on that WSJ picture led to this Getty Images that clearly labeled it as a bull. Is your view of the picture clear enough to say it's a cow? I have also found the WSJ piece on Gunjan Banerji's Twitter page and I follow her too. There are 2+ dozen comments on it but none mention this bull vs cow aspect.
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/bull-standing-in-field-royalty-free-image/200455053-001

That thought has occurred in IL for MATCHING federal $s with IL $s:
"State of Illinois Launches $15 Million Federal Grant Support ...
CHICAGO - Governor Pritzker and the Illinois Department of Commerce and ... the State's efforts to secure funding through the CHIPS and Science Act,..."
Pitches have been made but no takers yet.
https://www.illinois.gov/news/press-release.26493.html

@davidsherman, yes, Graust is correct. I just pulled 1 month return from wherever Schwab gets their data. And I didn't mention the consistent trend of SPC, also in this account. I believe also up .8% for the month, 5.2% for 1 year. Not sure how you do it, but the chart is one very consistent trend up since last fall. So, thank you.

@MikeM...not sure how or where you are calculated RPHYX returns for 2023YTD. But, Morningstar has RPHYX up 2.15% which coincides with my calculations.

@yogibb, I have made the switch already since January this year to increase allocation to intermediate term bonds since. First started on treasury and then corporate bonds using both active and passive managed funds/ETFs. Though I have limited choices in my 401(k) plan. Also invested in a multi sector fund, PIMIX, and ST HY bond, OSTIX based on previously experience with these managers. My bank loan/floating rate bond exposure are limited to PRWCX, but I am watching closely as Giruox makes his moves quickly.
I continue to maintain a decent exposure to cash equivalents as long as the yield curve is inverted. Given this year’s inflation running near 5%, these cash equivalent is barely able to keep up AFTER factoring out inflation. Nevertheless, there are still better than the past near zero yield with money market. So rotating to the intermediate term bonds is necessary for the bond price appreciation as you noted that Fed’s rate hike is near the end.
During the March 2020 drawdown, BL/FL funds fell like HY corporate funds, averaging over 10%, and they took close to 6 months to recover. Treasury’s, in contrast, barely dropped at all and end ed the year up several percents as the FED cut the rate to 0.25%.
A mid-year review from Schwab’s Kathy Jones is enclosed for your enjoyment.
https://schwab.com/learn/story/mid-year-outlook-fixed-income

The Week in Charts (06/11/23)
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including an increase in bullish sentiment, the enormous eight, a June pause, the jobs comeback, and more...
Video
Blog

Barron's had some recent stories on Colorado River situation.
EMERGING MARKETS (4/3/23). To benefit from the US Chips and Science Act to promote domestic semi-CHIPS manufacturing, TSM (Taiwan) and INTC are building huge facilities near Phoenix, AZ. But chips manufacturing is very WATER-intensive and that is a scarce resource in AZ. Phoenix draws 40% of its water from the COLORADO RIVER that runs through 7 states, and AZ is the last one. Almost 70% of Colorado River water is used for farming. In a hyperbole, Kathryn SORENSEN, a former director of Phoenix Water Services, and now with Kyl Center (Arizona State U), said that the state’s water planning goes back “thousands of years”, so it can handle the water demands. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/998/thread
(If wondering why this US-related story is under the Emerging Markets, note the reference to TSM and Taiwan is part of most EM indexes; BTW, S Korea is considered EM by MSCI, but developed by FTSE)
COVER STORY (8/29/22), “(ESG) Beyond Drought: The Coming WATER Shortage Is a Threat from Main Street to Wall Street”. Water shortages in CA and elsewhere have changed consumer behaviors, HOME lawns and plantings. Investors are paying more attention to water impacts/risks/metrics on portfolios and BUSINESSES (agriculture, apparel/fashion, energy, mining, semi chips, data centers, etc). The SEC will require climate risk disclosures by 2022 yearend. Only 3% of world’s water is FRESH, and 2.5% is locked up in glaciers, polar ice caps, atmosphere, soil, so only 0.5% of the water is fresh and readily available. Many companies are RECYCLING water for reuse or alternate uses. Number and durations of DROUGHTS are rising globally. Problems in the US are acute in Colorado River areas (with Lake Mead and Lake Powell below 30% capacity). Global water DEMAND will exceed supply by 40-56% by 2030. Many companies have to write off assets stranded/idled by water scarcity. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/753/thread

This bond thread was posted Sunday, May 14. I thought it would be interesting to see how the major U.S. stock indexes have fared over the 25-day period since the post went up.
Friday, May 12 Closing Averages
S&P 500 4,124.08
The Dow Jones Industrial Average 33,300.62.
The Nasdaq composite 12,284.74.
Friday, June 9 Closing Averages
S&P 500 4,298.86 / CHANGE +4.24% since May 12
Dow Jones Industrials 33,876.78 / CHANGE +1.73% since May 12
Nasdaq 13,259.14 / CHANGE +7.93% since May 12
Source for May 12

Junk:
TUHYX. (15.65% of portfolio.)
5 yr +14.31%
3 yr: +3.6%
1 yr: +0.67%
YTD: +5.87%
3 mo: +1.41
Better than my Tips. But I'm holding the Tips, anyhow.
Other junk of mine: PRCPX and HYDB.

@yogibb, I have made the switch already since January this year to increase allocation to intermediate term bonds since. First started on treasury and then corporate bonds using both active and passive managed funds/ETFs. Though I have limited choices in my 401(k) plan. Also invested in a multi sector fund, PIMIX, and ST HY bond, OSTIX based on previously experience with these managers. My bank loan/floating rate bond exposure are limited to PRWCX, but I am watching closely as Giruox makes his moves quickly.
I continue to maintain a decent exposure to cash equivalents as long as the yield curve is inverted. Given this year’s inflation running near 5%, these cash equivalent is barely able to keep up AFTER factoring out inflation. Nevertheless, there are still better than the past near zero yield with money market. So rotating to the intermediate term bonds is necessary for the bond price appreciation as you noted that Fed’s rate hike is near the end.
During the March 2020 drawdown, BL/FL funds fell like HY corporate funds, averaging over 10%, and they took close to 6 months to recover. Treasury’s, in contrast, barely dropped at all and end ed the year up several percents as the FED cut the rate to 0.25%.
A mid-year review from Schwab’s Kathy Jones is enclosed for your enjoyment.
https://schwab.com/learn/story/mid-year-outlook-fixed-income