Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm) From Sgt. rono
I prefer to use longer smoother steadier trends myself as they're easier to spot. And as FA said, it's not picking the absolute bottom nor top with a longer trend. With a 4 or 5 year trend, there's plenty of money to be made from between the 20 and 80 yard line - you don't have to go endzone to endzone. And again, all you're trying to do is to improve the returns of your portfolio over that of the 'great unwashed.'
Now a couple of tactics. First you need to have an exit strategy and you must follow it. Even if it 'stops you out' prematurely, you MUST follow it. With stocks you can set Stop Loss points, but you can also set mental stop loss points with mutual funds. For volatile sectors, you can use 10%-15% give back from your high. For more staid sectors, you could use 5-10%. Your call but FOLLOW IT.
When riding a trend, I scale in and scale out. Some go all at once, but I go incrementally. Perhaps I'm just a chicken. Ok.
For example, 6 months ago, I started noticing China via CAF. After watching this for a few weeks where it continued to diverge from the rest of asia and other markets, let's say I decide to play it. My intention is to invest $10K (round numbers for example). Ergo, I invest $2500 first and watch it for a week or so. If it makes me money and stays in the green, I go ahead and invest another $2500 . . . and watch it for a week or so. If it continues green I drop the remaining $5000. And watch it.
Scaling OUT is the same in reverse. Let's say I'm using 10% pull back from the highs for my 'stop loss'. It does so. I sell 25% of my holdings and watch it. If it drops some more, I sell another 25% and watch it. If it drops some more, I sell the rest. Note that depending upon how steep the drop, you may just bail much more quickly. And you MUST exit when the market says. I don't care what your feelings are, all that matters in this case is what the Captain says. You can always find another trend, but you simply do NOT want to give back all your gains.
And that is the trap that many fall into - they identify the trend, climb on board, ride it up and fail to get off and ride it back down. This leads to net/net zero. feh. This is why you must follow your exit strategy faithfully.
The nicest thing about trend or momentum investing is that you can still have a very passive buy & hold porfolio with much of your money - say 90% and just play with 10% and improve your returns over that of the average.
peace,
rono
Added : From May 2009 I'm wondering how rono is doing ?
Harbor International Growth Fund will be liquidated https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312524200350/d637629d497.htm497
1 d637629d497.htm INTERNATIONAL GROWTHFUND SAI SUPPLEMENT
111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
Chicago, IL 60606-4302
harborcapital.com
Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March
1, 2024
August
14, 2024
Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor International Growth Fund (the “Fund”). The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on October 23, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Fund on the Liquidation Date.
Shareholders may exchange shares of the Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of the Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Fund’s prospectus, until the Liquidation Date.
In order to ready the Fund for liquidation, the Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned Liquidation Date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that the Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective of seeking long-term growth of capital.
Because the Fund will be liquidating, the Fund is now closed to new investors. The Fund will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on October
16, 2024.
Cost Basis Method at Schwab It's not just Schwab's interpretation. That's the way the IRS interprets time of identification - up to the time of delivery (settlement).
Time for making identification. For purposes of this paragraph (c), an adequate identification of stock is made at the time of sale, transfer, delivery, or distribution if the identification is made no later than the earlier of the settlement date or the time for settlement required by Rule 15c6-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, 17 CFR 240.15c6-1 (or its successor)
26 CFR § 1.1012-1(c)(8)
Trade date is the day your order to buy or sell a security is executed; settlement date is the day your order is finalized and on which funds and the securities must be delivered.
FINRA,
Understanding Settlement Cycles
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. You can “almost” rent a decent room near Times Square for the price of that steak dinner! :)
Locally, Glenfiddich 12 is going for $55.
If DJT gets to $1.38 ... back up the truck, Morningstar (Q) says.
Morningstar (Q) staunchly maintains a $49 / share fair price for the abandoned mansion that is DJT. (As I write, it's trading at $23 and change.) It reaches a five-star price at $1.38 / share.
Morningstar doesn't report the total number of funds holding the stock (the top 20 are all index funds where the DJT holding doesn't even reach the "rounding error" threshold) but there is a New York hedge fund, ATW SPAC Management, that has 14% of its portfolio in DJT. Kerry Propper, who appears describable as "investor and humanitarian," is ATW's founder so I'm guessing (??) it's a short position.
Leuthold: going anywhere The folks at Leuthold shared a recent email titled "We did WHAT?" which reports that they shorted the NASDAQ in July. They wrote:
While our tactical portfolios almost exclusively hedge equities using our proprietary short-selling strategy, last month we upped the hedge by shorting the NASDAQ 100 via the QQQ ETF. One of the driving factors is that July’s broadening action was much more of a NYSE phenomenon than a NASDAQ one—the latter market still looks highly bifurcated and triggered a “maximum-negative” reading on the HLLI in early August.
Partly in consequence, they posted top 6% returns in July (up 3.7%) and top 2
1% returns over the past four weeks (-0.3%). I know they're a bit tame, perhaps a bit wonky in a small Minnesota shop way, for some investors but they have top tier performance over the trailing
1-, 3- 5-,
10- and
15-year periods with relative returns ranging from top
12% (3-year) to top 3
1% (
15 year) against their Morningstar peers. They've comfortably outperformed their Lipper peers since inception (
1995) on both upside and downside measures.
Happily, for the budget conscious, the LCR ETF seems to be outperforming LCORX by (eyeballing here) about the different in their expense ratios.
Today's note: "the 2
1-day correlation between Large Growth and Large Value turned negative for just the fifth time in 33 years. Two previous signals coincided with major rotations into the Value style."
Cost Basis Method at Schwab All methods aside from average cost (for mutual funds) are specific ID (what Schwab calls Identified Cost Method). The specific shares that are to be sold are identified and their actual cost used in determining gain or loss.
That's the way things work regardless of institution. The question is how those specific shares are identified.
An investor can always (except when using average cost) specify which shares are being sold at the time the trade is placed (or anytime up until settlement). However, if the investor doesn't identify the specific shares, Schwab still has to identify them, somehow.
That's where these other methods come in. You're giving Schwab an algorithm to select the shares you're selling
if you don't identify those shares yourself.
Schwab, like most institutions, sets the default method of selecting shares to FIFO for everything but mutual funds. But that's used only if you don't identify the shares you're selling at the time of sale.
For mutual funds, again like most institutions, it sets the default to average cost. If you want to change from average cost to something else, you have to do this via
paper form. At least you can send that paper to Schwab electronically.
Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024) I also lived through 2000-2002 bear market and at that time I was single, 37-39 years old and was investing entirely with Janus...blast from the past!!
Janus Mercury, Janus Global Technology and at the time the vaunted Janus Worldwide with Helen Young-Hayes. I was 100% equities. I admit soon after 9/11 I just couldn't take it any longer with the market's long correction and sold out of my complete positions into a Janus MM fund for a month or so before reinvesting into the markets. I toned down the risk by going 75/25 equity/fixed income. I believe the equity fund was Janus Core Equity and the bond fund was Janus Flexible Income...again, names of those funds might be off just a bit.
As stated in my previous post, I didn't sell anything during the GFC with the difference being the experience I had living through 2000-2002 and the eventual rebound and also having a respected friend who encouraged me to stay the course during the GFC as he was doing.
GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY) Rajiv Jain is not afraid to concentrate his bets in GQEIX (and in his other funds as well). M* reports 61% of AUM in the top ten, while the comparable figure is 42% for QLTY.
Duck! Morgan Stanley's Wilson Sees Few Signs of Bear Market in Stocks -
Bloomberg article today
Excerpts from 2 different paragraphs. (I’ll try to link, but you might not be able to access article w/o a subscription.
”Chances of a full-fledged stock market rout are low, even though poor seasonality and a murky growth outlook are likely to limit US equity gains through the rest of the quarter, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.””I find it hard to believe we’re going to break out back toward the highs,” he said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “I also don’t think we’re going to completely break down in a way that would argue that we’re entering a new bear market.’”
The Stack
Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024) I was still working during the GFC and had a mantra of staying the course. It’s easy to say “woulda, shoulda” in retrospect. But the fear then, if you hadn’t experienced ‘87 or lost biggly in ‘00-‘01, holding on by your fingertips and chanting, “I think I can” was good enough for me.
Still, having experienced and not panicked (too much) has now provided the “muscle memory” as BB Fan noted, to put some chips in play when markets drop.
Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024) Paulson! yes @ BaluBalu, that is who I was referring to earlier.
And.
@hank, no, nada, I sure wasn't advocating for all in all out etc...I was trying to point out that it is now easy to look back and say one should/could've(?) started averaging in..but at the time it wasn't easy at all...so with the knowledge of hindsight, it sure is easy to say now that should have went all in....
My drawdown was -3.7% (truth!) during the 08' flush (hey FD
1000, how do you like that?)...as I got somewhat toasted during 200
1 flush, I had good muscle memory recall....and also when I went to an open house at a new condo development in San Diego....I told the nice gal sales rep that the price points were kooky insane....she asked where I was from...and said that explains it..."you don't get it"...I said no ma'am, YOU don't get it...a year from now you will be on your knees begging me to pay 40% less than these prices...I was right....and now
15 years later, would say she was also...LOL! Then I also had a Washington Mutual open up by me with higher than market CD rates...the gal there was wanting me to sign a 5-year CD...I said, nah, I'm walking you guys are making home loans to folks who couldn't afford a storage shed...I don't want anything to do with ya'll and as a matter of fact I am going to short the piss out of your stock...made a nice bundle on that trade.
The more I read on this thread and think back 30 years+...the more I think a moderate-conservative multi-asset, balanced approach with some flexing around the edges is the way to go....sure would have more monies now and have had less stress, worries etc...
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Slimming down holdings sprawl, aiming to get under 10 core investments. Sold JAAA, SPD, GENIX, QRPIX, FPADX, FTIHX, MPV, TLT.
Reduced BIVIX and TRAIX to a minimal level to keep a "foot in the door"
Increased ZROZ and started a new position in INTC.
Looking at increasing positions in QLEIX, QMNIX and CPIEX.
(Canada) wireless price wars bringing things to a bottoming-out. Video from Bloomberg Canada.
Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024 @hankTen index funds is too much 'diworstificiation' to my mind.
--- Diworsification is the process of adding investments to a portfolio in such a way that the risk-return tradeoff is worsened.
A quote from Steve Jobs (Apple) that applies to the many things too many investors attempt to chase or justify.
“A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them”
― Steve Jobs
NOTE: We've remained U.S. centered with investments since the GFC. Hell, Europe remained broken for years after the melt. AND, if investment 'things' become bad here, they're probably worse everywhere else, globally.
-
Thanks
@catch22 Re: your #
10 complex (
Decaphobia)
Does this mean you won’t go near
asset allocation “fund-of-funds”? The ones I look at, including several well regarded ones from T Rowe Price (like TRRIX) typically invest in
15-25 other funds. While this one doesn’t limit holdings to just
index funds, you can find many that do. What do you know that these managers don’t?
The reason I myself maintain
10 equal weight positions in assets like OEFs, CEFs, ETFs, stocks (9 positions + cash) is the ease of swapping out one position for something else should I desire to take profits from an over-performer or raise / lower the portfolio’s overall risk profile. Having fewer than 9 holdings (+ cash) would entail a greater degree of risk in selling
100% of a position and replacing it with another. In my dreams … I envision having only 5-7 holdings. But am in no hurry to achieve that elusive goal.
To each his own. I was happy to own only a single fund (TEMWX) during most of my working years. Sir John did a great job managing it in the early days. I think what’s really important is that investors have a plan and adhere to it, whatever plan fits their needs. Investing a lifetime’s accumulated wealth at 80 isn’t the same as building an asset base when you are 25 or slyly gaming the markets at 50.
Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm) Fro Bob C. Dec. 16 '09
All that being said, we have a few managers/funds that we have used for what we would consider a long time. Among them are Thornburg Value and International Value, Artisan MidCap Value and Mid Cap, Diamond Hill Small Cap and Long-Short, Permanent Portfolio, Artio International, Artisan International, First Eagle Overseas, some of the Matthews funds, Oppenheimer Developing Markets, and several of U.S. Global's funds: Global Resources, World Precious Minerals, and Eastern Europe. One we have held only a few years is Ivy Asset Strategy, but we have a lot of confidence in its two top managers and expect it to be a core holding for a long time.
On the bond side, we have used Loomis for what seems like forever. Our other big holding has been Templeton Global Bond, and what a great manager it has.
But with all of this said, we don't know what tomorrow will bring. So flexibility remains a key component of our strategy. We have a whole asset class of "Alternative Strategy" for which we allocate 15-20% as a way of reducing volatility and adding low or negative correlation to portfolios. And we also have a "Tactical Sector Strategy" class that gives us a 10-15% allocation to overweight specific sectors. We hope that these two parts of our portfolios will give us a boost in good markets and a cushion in bear markets.