I’ve never dealt with the sector. On a broader note, the near obsession with weight reducing drug ozempic is having far reaching effects on businesses, including the health care industry. To be sure, the medication is intended for specific medical conditions (like diabetes), but its success at lowering appetite / weight is receiving a lot of attention. It’s quite expensive and insurers have balked at covering it. But that is expected to change as health benefits become clearer. (There are other similar / competing drugs.)
An excerpt from the linked article shows how a medication that’s healthy for consumers might turn out to be unhealthy for certain health care providers.
“The news from Novo Nordisk wasn't as well received by shareholders of dialysis treatment companies. Shares of DaVita dropped 17% in premarket trading, while Fresenius Medical Care's stock was down 16% before the market opened Wednesday morning … Dialysis stocks have already been under pressure from advances related to Ozempic and similar drugs. To the extent that treatments are effective in halting the progression of kidney diseases and avoiding renal failure, fewer patients might need to get regular dialysis treatment. DaVita and Fresenius are among the top providers of dialysis services, so it's understandable that they're taking sizable hits on the news.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/10/11/ozempic-is-moving-a-bunch-of-stocks-wednesday-morn/
It goes way beyond the example cited. I’m riding a large food conglomerate I think is a good long term play. But like other food providers, it’s been taken to the woodshed lately based at least in part on the ozempic hysteria. (Walmart has documented that people picking up the drug at their pharmacies are buying less food / with fewer calories.)
Other potential effects as the global population slims down:
- Airlines should profit as passenger’s average weights fall leading to fuel savings
- Hospitalization and care for cardiovascular health issues should see a sharp decrease, affecting health care providers. The drug(s) have been shown to lower the incidence of such diseases.
- Health insurance companies should benefit from fewer serious medical claims. On the other hand, they may be saddled in paying for these expensive drugs.
- Agriculture could suffer and, correspondingly, agricultural land prices might fall..
- John Deere? I just checked. It’s off 11.5% YTD. Wouldn’t ya know? :)
It gets really silly. The real impact remains to be seen.
Here’s some related articles. Unfortunately, not all are accessible without subscription.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/02/business/dealbook/weight-loss-drugs-diet-companies-ozempic.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/corporate-america-weighs-risks-ozempic-effect-2023-10-19/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/09/ozempic-weight-loss-drugs-impact/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/it-s-overblown-beer-stocks-take-plunge-after-major-corporation-warns-ozempic-weight-loss-drugs-could-affect-sales/ar-AA1i095V

@randynevin: You raise an important issue. I had been a long-time investor in healthcare stocks and CEFs. I have but one token MF holding now. As you rightly point out, the top of the market was in 2015 and this was particularly true for biotech which, I believe, was fueling much of the performance. Just yesterday I read that PrimeCap funds’ performance has suffered in recent years because of their continued over allocation to healthcare. It may be that big pharmaceutical stocks have suffered of late, say since the 2020 election, because there are serious efforts to force the manufacturers to negotiate drug prices with MediCare. Investors don’t like uncertainty, as the saying goes. Certainly there was speculative money to be made on COVID vaccine makers, but that did not represent a bump in the entire sector.

The average business cycle is about 4 years; not strangely, the US Presidential cycle is also similar. So, I like to look at 3- or 5- year rolling returns, where available.
Portfolio Visualizer has a Rolling Return tab that has built-in 3- and 5- year Rolling Returns. It isn't customizable.
StockCharts can be fooled into providing Rolling Returns using the ROC (n) feature. It gives %change over n periods, so, in Daily charts, use 780 days for 3-yr and 1,300 for 5-yr.

First, apologies as I am not an 'active' investor. I tend to set it and forget it, so I'm usually late to the party.
I have been noticing over the last few years that investing in healthcare (for example PRHSX T Rowe Price Health Sciences, which we are in) has really sucked (relative to the market as a whole). From 2000 to mid-2015 it consistently outperformed the s&p500. That all turned around in mid-2015 and it has been underperforming ever since. I've been patiently waiting for the worm to turn. (Did some seismic event happen in mid-2015 to damage this whole sector?)
Lately I've noticed FSMEX Fidelity Select Med Tech & Devices, a real world-beater from 2000 to late-2021 has gotten hit. Flat in 2022 relative to the market, and in a real nosedive in 2023.
What is going on in this sector, and is it something that will eventually reverse?
Thanks for your thoughts on this.

The 20 year period data is more meaningful since it over several economic cycles. One can see the ups and downs and the overall effect on the asset class returns.
Shorter time frame of 1, 3 and 5 year returns tend to be less reliable in my honest opinion. Several variables were not discussed including asset class correlation, interest rates, currencies, sub-categories within an asset class, plus other macro factors.
Bonds are a good example in this year. There are those that done well while others lag the broader total bond index. US stock is another example of how to reconcile the “magnificent seven” tech stock’s contribution to S&P 500 while the 493 stocks in the index are essentially flat.

BULLISH. Asset/money managers (AB, AMG, BEN, BLK, FHI, IVZ, TROW; dividend yield 0.0-8.9%; fwd P/E 7.2-17.3; market-cap 3.0-94.4 billion; should benefit from rising investor interest in bonds)
FUNDS – INCOME. GOLD is rising due to inflation and geopolitical tensions. Gold-bullion ETFs are GLD, IAU, etc. Gold-mining ETFs are GDX, GDXJ, etc. Some gold-miners pay variable dividends. Attractive are NEM, FNV, etc. (Ratio GDX:GLD or $XAU:$GOLD has lot of catching up to do – i.e., the gold-bullion has moved but the gold-miners not so much yet.)
FUNDS. Stock picks by AI have been disappointing as seen by lagging performance of AI-powered ETFs AIEQ, KOMP, WIZ. A problem is that the AI selections are based on lots of historical data and overweighted industrials and financial but underweights techs: Their proponents say that beating the market isn’t their objective, and that they should be used as supplements for other holdings (remember that when you see their ads next time).
FUNDS – Q&A. David SAMRA, international value ARTKX. He looks for undervalued stocks with strong balance sheets and good management; the expected return is 30%+ (time?). In some cases, his fund/firm becomes a minority shareholder – important in Europe to effect changes. Consumer-oriented companies are attractive now due to high inflation and rates. He also looks for indirect beneficiaries of AI.
EXTRA, FUNDS. With long-term rates rising (bond vigilantes are back), bonds and bond-proxies have slumped. Consider these DIVIDEND-ETFs: Dividend-growth VIG, current-dividend VYM, dividend-blend SCHD, international VIGI. M* recently upgraded some ratings on them and calls them “best in class”.
EXTRA, FUNDs (some duplication). After the SEC setbacks in the courts, and the SEC decision not to appeal the most recent adverse court ruling in SEC vs GBTC/Grayscale, there is hope in the market for the approval of physical/spot-crypto ETFs within months (pending are from BLK, Fidelity, IVZ, ARK, Grayscale, etc). The most immediate beneficiary may be Grayscale GBTC (at double-digit % discount now) if its conversion to ETF is also approved. But the court has only asked the SEC to reconsider and to come up with new reasons for rejection (as its old reasons weren’t valid) or approve it; GENSLER/SEC may continue to foot drag by claiming a new 240-day review period for GBTC to take into account the changed situation, but that is seen as unlikely.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/516/barron-october-2023-market-week

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834423019521/fp0085690-2_497.htm
97 1 fp0085690-2_497.htm
Knowledge Leaders Developed World ETF
Ticker: KLDW
A series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the "Trust")
Supplement dated October 20, 2023, to the Prospectus and
Statement of Additional Information ("SAI"), each dated September 1, 2023
*** IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING PROPOSED FUND REORGANIZATIONS ***
Based on the recommendation of Knowledge Leaders Capital, LLC (the “Advisor”), the investment advisor of the Knowledge Leaders Developed World ETF (the “Fund”), the Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”) has approved the reorganization of the Fund into the AXS Knowledge Leaders ETF (the “Acquiring Fund”), a newly created series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Reorganization”). The Reorganization will occur pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”). The Plan provides for the Fund to transfer all of its assets to the Acquiring Fund in return for shares of the Acquiring Fund and cash in lieu of fractional Acquiring Fund shares (if any) and the Acquiring Fund’s assumption of the Fund’s liabilities. Each shareholder of the Fund will receive shares of the Acquiring Fund and cash in lieu of fractional Acquiring Fund shares (if any) equal to the value of the shares of the Fund owned by the shareholder prior to the Reorganization. The Reorganization is not generally expected to result in the recognition of gain or loss by the Fund or its shareholders for U.S. federal income tax purposes (except with respect to cash received by shareholders in lieu of fractional shares, if any). AXS Investments LLC will bear the costs related to the Reorganization.
The Acquiring Fund has an identical investment objective, investment strategy and fundamental investment restrictions as the Fund. If the Reorganization is completed, AXS Investments LLC (“AXS”) will become the investment advisor to the Acquiring Fund. The Fund’s current portfolio manager, Steven Vannelli, CFA, will become an employee of AXS and will continue to serve as a portfolio manager of the Acquiring Fund. The Advisor will not be involved in the management of the Acquiring Fund.
The Board will call a meeting of the shareholders of the Fund to vote on the Plan. Management of the Trust expects the shareholder meeting to be held on or about December 20, 2023, at the offices of Mutual Fund Administration, LLC, 2220 E. Route 66, Suite 226, Glendora, California 91740. If the Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders, the Reorganization is expected to take effect in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Shareholders of the Fund will receive a combined prospectus/proxy statement with additional information about the shareholder meeting, the proposed Reorganization, and the Acquiring Fund, including information about the Acquiring Fund's investment strategies, risks, fees and expenses. Please read the proxy materials carefully, as they will contain a more detailed description of the proposed Reorganization.
Please file this Supplement with your records.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834423019535/fp0085685-1_497.htm (advisor class)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834423019536/fp0085685-2_497.htm (Institutional class)
497 1 fp0085685-2_497.htm
KL Allocation Fund
Institutional Class Ticker: GAVIX
A series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the "Trust")
Supplement dated October 20, 2023, to the Prospectus and
Statement of Additional Information ("SAI"), each dated January 1, 2023
*** IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING PROPOSED FUND REORGANIZATION ***
Based on the recommendation of the Advisor, the Board has approved the reorganization of the Fund into the AXS Astoria Inflation Sensitive ETF (the “Acquiring Fund”), an existing series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Reorganization”). The Reorganization will occur pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”). The Plan provides for the Fund to transfer all of its assets to the Acquiring Fund in return for shares of the Acquiring Fund and cash in lieu of fractional Acquiring Fund shares (if any) and the Acquiring Fund’s assumption of the Fund’s liabilities. Each shareholder of the Fund will receive shares of the Acquiring Fund and cash in lieu of fractional Acquiring Fund shares (if any) equal to the value of the shares of the Fund owned by the shareholder prior to the Reorganization. The Reorganization is not generally expected to result in the recognition of gain or loss by the Fund or its shareholders for U.S. federal income tax purposes (except with respect to cash received by shareholders in lieu of fractional shares, if any). AXS Investments LLC will bear the costs related to the Reorganization.
The Acquiring Fund and Fund each seek long-term capital appreciation; the Acquiring Fund and Fund have different principal investment strategies and principal risks. The Acquiring Fund invests principally in securities which have the potential to benefit, either directly or indirectly, from increases in the rate of rising costs of goods and services (i.e., inflation). The Fund employs an allocation strategy by investing, in three asset classes: equity, fixed income and cash or cash equivalents. AXS Investments LLC and Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC are the investment advisor and sub-advisor, respectively, of the Acquiring Fund. The Advisor will not be involved in the management of the Acquiring Fund. The Acquired Fund’s portfolio manager, Steven Vannelli, CFA, will become a portfolio manager at AXS Investments LLC and will participate in the Acquired Fund’s investment committee. The Acquiring Fund is expected to have a lower management fee and total annual fund operating expenses as the Fund.
The Fund operates as a mutual fund and the Acquiring Fund operates as an actively managed exchange-traded fund (“ETF”). ETFs may provide benefits to shareholders compared to mutual funds, including additional trading flexibility, increased transparency, and the potential for lower transaction costs and enhanced tax efficiency. Additional information regarding the differences between mutual funds and ETFs and potential impact to shareholders will be included in the combined prospectus/proxy statement noted below. In order to receive shares of the Acquiring Fund as part of the Reorganization, Fund shareholders must hold their shares of the Fund through a brokerage account eligible to hold and trade shares of an ETF. If you are unsure about the ability of your account to accept Acquiring Fund shares, please call 1-888-998-9890 or contact your financial advisor or other financial intermediary.
The Board will call a meeting of the shareholders of the Fund to vote on the Plan. Management of the Trust expects the shareholder meeting to be held on or about January 12, 2024, at the offices of Mutual Fund Administration, LLC, 2220 E. Route 66, Suite 226, Glendora, California 91740. If the Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders, the Reorganization is expected to take effect in the first quarter of 2024.
Shareholders of the Fund will receive a combined prospectus/proxy statement with additional information about the shareholder meeting, the proposed Reorganization, and the Acquiring Fund, including information about the Acquiring Fund's investment strategies, risks, fees and expenses. Please read the proxy materials carefully, as they will contain a more detailed description of the proposed Reorganization.
Please file this Supplement with your records.

20 october, 2023:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-10-20/bloomberg-real-yield-10-20-23

@hank — The way I am addressing the potential for more rate increases is to ladder my CDs and Treasuries. I’ve got CDs and Treasuries maturing roughly every three months on the short end, and every 6-12 months on the long end. My longest term CD is five years, but I’m considering going out longer if Treasury yields top 5% in the 5, 7, 10 and 20 year ranges. I am more willing to buy longer term Treasuries than CDs because of greater ease in selling.
When I started building ladders earlier this year, I bought some callable CDs at higher yields, not realizing the distinction. All of my more recent CDs are non-callable. However, only one of my earlier CDs has been called in, and I was able to reinvest at a higher rate.
I’ve also sold some of my intermediate bond funds and reinvested in an ultrashort fund (FCNVX) and floating rate ETF (USFR). I haven’t sold all of my intermediate and multisector bond funds because they are now paying much higher yields and will eventually rebound when interest rates stabilize or drop.

One needs to assess the situation carefully:
1. Returns after the annual inflation. This year is about 3-4%.
2. Returns after federal and state tax. These instruments are tax as ordinary income on federal level. T bills are state tax exempt.
If inflation stays higher than the historical 2% for several years, that will erode purchasing power from the 5% yield. The 4% withdrawal rate May becomes not feasible. This is tough time for income investors including myself.

”But if you bought the CD from a brokerage it would be little different from having bought a 5 year Treasury.”
Ginsberg's theorem
1. You can't win. (consequence of first law of thermodynamics)
2. You can't break even. (consequence of second law of thermodynamics)
3. You can't even get out of the game. (consequence of third law of thermodynamics)
Sounds a lot like marriage. Easier to get in than out of. When you throw in the uncertainty of knowing where interest rates (or asset prices) might be a year or so from now, it makes the hypothetical proposition I posted earlier of “going all in” more complex than first appears. Like marriage, once you commit to that plan (sell your diversified holdings) it might be hard to get back into them at the same prices you sold for (the entropy part.)

Guys - You’ve almost convinced me to sell everything and move it all into that “guaranteed insured rate of 5+% for the next … 5 years.”
Never invested that way before, having grown up believing a broadly diversified portfolio is the way to go. Even when money market funds paid 15% in the 80s I (perhaps stupidly) remained mostly in globally diversified equities. (Maybe “brainwashed” watching Rukeyser every Friday night.)
My question - If the rate available on this product (5-year CD) rises to 7-8% in a year or two, could I cash out that 5-year CD early and buy a new one at the 7-8% rate - or move it into a money market fund at a better rate than the old CD?

@stillers
As far as I’m concerned, this is a great investing time for retirees. I’m perfectly satisfied with guaranteed 5% returns, particularly with bond funds losing value every day

Agreed. If I wasn't still working and already in a fairly high marginal tax bracket I'd be snapping up 5%+ treasuries for the long-term. But right now, I'd be giving up a pretty significant chunk of that in taxes, so I'm sticking with QDI from equities at much more reasonable 15% taxation rates.

Bought into a 17-week t-bill on Tuesday and yesterday’s investments in VTSAX and VDADX. This after moving a chunk of VG short-term corporates to the sidelines.

M* JR compares rolling returns (5- , 10-, 20- yr) and annual returns for 01/1926-09/2023. An obvious conclusion is that longer rolling-return periods smooth the returns and reveal the underlying trends. Historical data (for almost 97 years!) are also notable.
At one time, M* Charts used to provide rolling return option. May be that should be restored.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/how-time-horizon-affects-odds-equity-investing

A fascinating thought. I’ve gone from 20 to 10 holdings over the past year or two. So, “progress is being made” as they say.

I believe D&C is changing their funds to institutional shares and they need to be registered with SEC. They are still sold through Fidelity Retail brokerage, but it has not been completed yet.

That's an interesting theory, but the new filings (new prospectuses) were complete as of June 6th. And the tickers weren't changed, only new tickers for class X shares were added.
DODLX summary prospectus including June 6th supplement.
Even if somehow the funds had temporarily "vanished", the fund family D&C didn't. Fidelity's screener shows other families that have no funds. It doesn't show D&C.
For example, here's the screener's search result for American Growth funds - 0 funds, but it still finds the family.
In contrast to the D&C funds that are alive and well, the American Growth Fund - Series 2 (AMREX), aka American Growth Cannabis Fund went, well, up in smoke.
http://www.agfseries2.com/files/Summary Prospectus N1a Sticker.pdf

@stillers. +1000!

.....19 October. '23. Still no word. I may send a third (and final-sounding) message to see if anyone is actually awake and present and able to think and is paying attention and gives a shit. For the time being, I'll let it ride. Dividend comes just once per year, in May. My position is small enough that it doesn't matter much to my bottom line. After the next div, I'll sell it and get out. It's a solid business. I just hate to be ignored and disregarded. This is fecal.