Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    “Ya in hindsight why say screw around with cost averaging in, should have just pushed all the chips in.. “
    If you’re still working and contributing as much as you can to your retirement plan (IRA, 401-K) out of every paycheck (sometimes called dollar cost averaging) may I inquire where you would obtain all those “chips” to push around?
    Does BB suggest younger investors during their accumulation phase try gaming the markets by moving back and forth between equities and cash?
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    Y'all need to consider that many quote smart prognosticators we're thinking the market was going to get cut in half again from the low in 08, 09'. And Gartner and the ex Goldman sachs guy, I forget his name held an emergency weekend meeting in attempt to negate a complete collapse of our financial system.
    I seem to recall that guy had a three page document that stated he would have complete control of all decisions..what an attempt to circumvate... luckily that didn't happen but oh so close
    Ya in hindsight why say screw around with cost averaging in, should have just pushed all the chips in...
    I do distinctly remember Grantham saying hold your nose and average DOWN with 10% of your money in chunks....he was correct...
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    @MikeM +1 2 3
    Have followed with interest your work with Schwab’s robo over many years. Appreciate all your comments. I’m thinking there are some actively managed allocation funds that might do quite well what robos profess to do.
    I subscribe to a newsletter that publishes a “recommended portfolio” consisting of 10 index funds. (It’s currently almost 50% cash.) I don’t follow the recommendations - and can’t see any particular brilliance to the approach after about 3 years following it, except that the index funds recommended carry much lower ER’s than I pay for my actively managed funds.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    Reading 08/09 forums is a good exercise to do. I do it frequently. The one common thread of discussion was lack of income producers. Too much equity and not enough longer duration bonds, CD's etc. to provide income to pay bills. Another issue was portfolios designed to sell shares to pay bills in retirement. Selling shares in collapse. 50% down takes 100% to get even.
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    The mandatory 12% in cash that returns about 0.2%, plus the mistimed heavy allotments to international, emerging markets and small caps since the funds inception has been a losing strategy for Schwab's Intelligent Portfolio. At one time it was 1/2 my retirement savings. I thought it would be care-free professionally managed money. After about 8 years, I finally gave up and baled on it at the end of last year. What sounded like a good idea, was not.
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    During the GFC we didn't sell anything, didn't buy much either other than continue to contribute to our Roth IRA's. We were mainly in PRWCX. I did jump into PRHYX when the yield was approaching 20%!! I believe it was early 2009 when I sold PRHYX after ~40% gain.
    Yes. ‘07-‘09 (especially ‘08) would have been a wonderful time to be dollar-averaging in to a retirement account. I hadn’t considered that. At a younger age I’d had paid it little heed. Stay the course.
    For some of us the year and a half long market crash was an unwelcome retirement gift. I was already 10 years in. Those retirees who got caught with more risk on the table then their individual situation warranted got taken to the cleaners.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    If I remember correctly, March 2008 was just the "appetizer", not the "main course" GFC that started in Fall 2008. Early in 2008, a couple of Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed. Most investors went on with their merry-ways thinking that Bear Stearns Fund hedge fund managers were just idiots for losing money in the bull market.
    On the hindsight, market had peaked in Fall 2007, some fractures developed in Spring 2008 (canary in the coal mine?), and full blown collapse followed in Fall 2008.
    I think that I first noticed Wayback Machine in a post by @msf - thanks. Now I am a big fan of Wayback Machine / Internet Archives. It's run by a nonprofit that is under attack by some greedy publishers - the charge is copyright violation that all digital-libraries face. Unfortunately, Wayback Machine has been forced to un-archive some stuff due to adverse court rulings, but it's continuing the fight. Wayback Machine has a natural sampling frequency of millions of websites. For my part, when I visit Wayback Machine, I also manually archive several websites that I visit for additional captures for those. As a practical matter, it archives the main webpages and related links, but stops if links are redirects (to other links).
    StockCharts SP500 7/1/07 - 6/30/09 (change dates if display defaults),
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-01-01&en=2009-06-30&id=p25401887723
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    Thanks @yogibearbull.
    While you can’t pull up the entire discussion, those headers (many from December ‘08) reveal a lot. I’ve excerpted a few consecutive lines which make reference to the ongoing “flood.”
    Trying hard to avoid a depression... - Fundmentals 13:28:52 12/16/08 (7)
    Like the analogy too, but the last time it rained for 40 day & 40 nights, few were left standing (nm) - rayf 16:42:54 12/16/08 (2)
    Re: Seems like it's already been a lot more than 40 days and 40nights... -nm - Old Joe 16:55:47 12/16/08 (1)
    You're right, of course... - rayf 17:35:50 12/16/08 (0)
    Wonderful set of analogies. - Shostakovich 14:02:33 12/16/08 (1)
    Re: Wonderful set of analogies.... Yes, I thought so also. -nm - Old Joe 14:11:32 12/16/08 (0)
    Re: Trying hard to avoid a depression... - JR 14:01:47 12/16/08 (0)
    Re: Now you've surely done it... said the forbidden "D word" right out loud! -nm - Old Joe 13:42:35 12/16/08 (0)

    Notice that @Old_Joe hasn’t changed any. :)
    -
    And thank you @msf
    Your excerpted comments from March 2008 are revealing. Some anxious posters are speculating the following day will be another ”Black Monday” - as in ‘87. Must be watching the futures on Sunday evening. (Siri confirms March 16, 2008 was a Sunday.)
    Geez - These guys had nearly another 12 months of this still ahead. Sound like nervous wrecks already!
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    @Derf. Thanks for pulling up a FA excerpt from February 25, 2009. The bear market ended just 2 weeks after that post. Yet, all sounds calm.
    I really like this line …
    ”Your mix of ETFs should match your investment time table, your age, your level of risk acceptance, your income needs, and any other financial considerations.”
    That was standard mantra for many years in discussing investment choices. It wasn’t about making the most money but rather about matching investments to your own needs and risk tolerance. You don’t hear that much (or as much) anymore.
    Nah, I am logged in & checking things most every day, and that's fine. But I don't fixate on inter-day performance, so at least for my mindset, it's no big deal. By contrast, I'm sure for most retail investors, they shouldn't check every day b/c they may not have the mindset/discipline/knowledge to know that 'doing nothing' often is the best course of action.
    I check fund performance via M* Portfolio Manager almost daily.There is no good reason for me to do this since I seldom trade. Bad habits are sometimes difficult to break!
    Same here. It’s so damn easy to tap an icon on whatever hand-held device I’m already on - and up pops everything. This habit (of looking during the day) has helped occasionally, as when some more speculative hold enjoys a big intraday bump and I can quickly trim some off. But watching is largely a waste of time.
    Were I to look only every 3 months I’d probably pull back the risk profile in advance. Add more cash / short term bonds. Carrying less risk would make it easier not to look, but would also impact performance negatively I think.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    More from the same article.
    3. Currency ETFs and shorting Treasurys
    The bursting of the credit bubble has led to a nasty correction across the board for assets -- stocks as well as commodities such as gold and oil plunged in unison. Only Treasury bonds provided safe haven last year.
    Some think the flight to Treasurys has created a bubble in U.S.-backed debt and driven yields to artificially low levels. One contrarian but risky way to profit from an unwinding of any Treasury bubble is to sell Treasury-bond ETFs short, wrote MarketWatch senior columnist Mark Hulbert in recent commentary for Barron's. See full story at Barrons.com.
    Furthermore, ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) and ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) are leveraged ETFs designed to rise when prices on Treasury bonds fall. Read previous story on shorting U.S. Treasurys.
    Another way to hedge weakness in the U.S. dollar is buying foreign currency exchange-traded products. However, investors are exposed to the risk that inflation isn't confined to the U.S. and spreads around the globe.
    Individuals can bet directly against the greenback with PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Bearish Fund (UDN). The ETF's tracking index is designed to duplicate the performance of being short the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies.
    There are dozens of other currency ETFs and ETNs. Rydex Investments oversees a suite of ETFs tracking foreign coinage, such as CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE).
    Barclays manages a similar lineup of ETNs that includes iPath EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETN (ERO). Other firms sponsor currency-themed products, and WisdomTree Investments Inc. offers ETFs that operate like money-market funds pegged to foreign countries. They invest in non-U.S. money market securities and seek to give investors yield and exposure to currency fluctuations relative to the U.S. dollar.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    Marketwatch 02/15/09
    Gold has been the preferred inflation hedge down through the ages. Investors have long prized the disaster insurance the precious metal provides during market panics and inflation surges when governments debase their currencies in response to crises.
    Gold futures were trading well above $900 an ounce last week as investors were disappointed by the lack of details in the Treasury Department's latest plan to rescue the financial system.
    Investors have been piling into the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). The amount of gold held by the ETF continues to set new records -- it is now backed by about 1,000 metric tons of the precious metal. SPDR Gold Shares has an expense ratio of 0.4%, although investors pay broker commissions to buy and sell ETFs.
    SPDR Gold Shares is one of the largest ETFs, with about $30 billion in assets. Although it is the biggest precious-metals ETF, several other exchange-traded products are tied to gold, silver and platinum, for example. Some provide leverage. Others such as Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) track miner shares. Investors need to be aware that gains on some futures-based commodity ETFs and ETNs can be taxed at a higher rate than those on funds indexed to stocks.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY)
    From: M*
    GQG -> NVDIA = 10.X% (top investment)
    QLTY -> MS = 7.X% (top investment; NVDIA not found in M* top 25)
    This might account for *uneven* results over short period of time.
    The last time I checked, QLTY didn't hold NVDA or TSLA but it held the five other Magnificent 7 stocks.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    ”I am much more content to be a longer-term investor who's not glued to the screens and news sources during the week ... “
    +1
    Recently listened to an interview which touched on the subject. From an experienced investor: “I don’t need to look at my statement daily.” He went on to say that every 3 months was enough.
    Making the same point, I think, by substituting ”statement” for ”portfolio”.. Ain’t that the truth?
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY)
    From: M*
    GQG -> NVDIA = 10.X% (top investment)
    QLTY -> MS = 7.X% (top investment; NVDIA not found in M* top 25)
    This might account for *uneven* results over short period of time.
  • Lawrence McDonald: "How To Listen When Markets Speak."
    The saying, "In Russia, it is very difficult to predict the past," is now increasingly applicable everywhere.
    If its difficult to predict the past, what chance do I have to be *convinced* about the future.
    Yes. All those re-writes of history, the Ministry of "Truth," a la 1984. Tass.
    And the current Russian regime is a bunch of mafia gangsters, supported by the military and the Kremlin apparatus. Increasingly applicable everywhere, indeed. Agreed. Still, I take his point that it's not a great idea to plow full steam ahead into a crowded trade. (Lots of us here do not trade; rather, we invest.) I personally love it when I discover a quality, neglected company that's not a big market mover.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    I wasn't a member of Fund Alarm during the GFC era but am interested in the general tenor
    of remarks during that period. I'll use the Wayback Machine to investigate further.
    +1
    17 straight months (mostly straight down without much of a reprieve) is a very long time. Assuming the members of a board like this (or FA) generally well versed in investing and well aware of current conditions … do they behave rationally - or do they succumb to panic & pessimism?
    @Ted once boasted of calling the end to the ‘07-‘09 bear market a few weeks early. However, I don’t think you could pull up back pages of FA and check what people said like you can at MFO.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion

    If [Zelle payments do not work with Fidelity], I will have to transfer from my Fidelity to my bank to the non-family person. ...
    If it works with Fidelity, the benefit of Fidelity (vs Schwab) is I do not have to transfer to a non-interest bearing account first.
    Zelle seems to say that if a bank doesn't work with it just use a debit card and the Zelle app.
    What if my bank or credit union doesn't offer Zelle®? - use the app.
    How can I use Zelle®? - enter "a Visa® or Mastercard® debit card with a U.S. based account."
    Presumably you can do that with your Fidelity account. Fidelity doesn't charge for debit card withdrawals, even on "regular" brokerage accounts. It just doesn't reimburse surcharges if you're not a Premium or better customer.
    I'm confused about the "non-interest bearing account" comment. At Schwab, Zelle works with the Schwab Bank Investor Checking account. That account pays 0.45%. It ain't much, but it ain't nuttin' either.
    I'm guessing that you've got a BofA checking account, because you've posted about owning a BofA CC paying 5.25%. That requires Premium Rewards which in turn requires having a BofA checking account. Even BofA has free (for Premium Rewards customers) checking accounts that pay interest. Sure, it's just 0.01%, but that counts as interest-bearing :-)
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY)
    @Observant1 - my pleasure
    I think this is the fund David referred to, please correct me if I'm wrong.
    GQG Partners US Select Quality Eq Instl GQEIX I struggle with making sense out of their Quartile Rank. I was expecting something less erratic.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    The Wayback Machine didn't archive individual posts, but it did archive several versions of the discussion board (list of posts by thread). Many of the posts were ntip (no text in posts - subject line contained the full content). Or nm (no message). So one might get a sense of the general tenor from those discussion board
    Here's another sample, this one from March 17, 2008
    https://web.archive.org/web/20080317021554/http://www.fundalarm.com/wwwboard/wwwboard.html
    In it is this thread:
    • How likely is it that tomorrow will be another Black Monday (like 1987) or worse? nm. - BWG 16:33:54 03/16/08 (5)
      • Re: How likely is it that tomorrow will be another Black Monday (like 1987) or worse? nm. - xorion 16:57:56 03/16/08 (0)
      • i'm very worried and tracking progress here: - mmc 16:45:59 03/16/08 (3)
        • Re: great site - looks like limit down - rono 17:12:11 03/16/08 (0)
        • Re: i'm very worried and tracking progress here: - earl 16:54:03 03/16/08 (0)
        • Thanks for the link. At this time, Japan is open and down 3%. nm. - BWG 16:48:45 03/16/08 (0)
    To get to these discussion board pages you can start with this page. It has links to archived versions of the www.fundalarm.com page for 2008.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20080701000000*/www.fundalarm.com
    From one of these achived pages, click on the Discussion Board link under "Join In" to get to a page like the sample above.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    I found old Fund Alarm archived pages at Wayback Machine/Internet Archives (nonprofit)
    This page is from 12/29/08. Free sign up may be required. This is as close to a true time machine as one can get.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20081217024432/http://www.fundalarm.com/wwwboard/wwwboard.html