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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Updated MFO Ratings and Flows Thru April ... FLOW Updates Daily
    Spent summer implementing two big changes to the offline number crunching routines (programs that take the Lipper month return data and derive our risk and return metrics):
    1) hooks for ratings by SubType (i.e., US Equity) and Type (i.e., Bonds), and
    2) imposing so-called "Strict On" and "Explicit On" coding options, which help ensure accuracy and shorten crunch time ... a lot. What used to take 20-24 hours now takes 6-8.
    Both updates rippled through ten years of code, so took a while.
    Lipper dropped 13 October data just before 6am Pacific. I'm hoping to have that update posted later today. It's running now.
  • Towle Deep Value Fund: what a difference 10 days can make
    Over a 10 year period, 2013-2023, 40% of annual performance in the bottom quantile (2013, 2018, 2.21 and 2023). Think there are better funds out there.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    10/14/23 Episode:
    The political, demographic and policy headwinds causing China’s economy to slow and possibly unravel with serious repercussions for the world’s economies and markets.


  • From Barron's - Where to INVEST or SPEND $100K
    I have these ad-hoc weekend posts when Barron's has several fund stories. But it seems that after the Funds Quarterly last week, Barron’s ran out of fund stories.
    There are some interesting stories in the Supplement about what to do with a windfall of $100K - there have been similar threads on MFO. So, here they are:
    GUIDE TO WEALTH Supplement has features on:
    Where to INVEST $100K now with recommendations from Barron’s writers for less hyped AI play, Covid vaccines, EVs, retail, bond-ladders (ALB, BMWYY, BNTX, CMG, COST, ELF, ETN, F, IBM, MRNA, PFE, RIVN, TSLA, WMT; defined-maturity bond ETFs from BLK);
    Where to SPEND $100K – charitable donations (DAFs; also direct, QCDs from IRAs), 529s for education, “cash” (online savings, money-market funds/accounts, T-Bills), home improvement, wedding/honeymoon, cruise;
    Top picks by some professionals – ORCL (by NILES; less popular cloud play), VFC (by HARRINGTON; rebound story), COP (by NYGREN; inflation hedge), KKR (by ROBERTS; alternatives), INTC & INTU (AHLSTEN; rebound stories).
    These are followed by state-by-state TOP Advisor Directory; TOP RIA Firms; TOP Advisory Teams.
    (It's an ad Supplement after all. But Guide to Wealth Supplement is of much higher quality than most such Supplements.)
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/514/barron-october-16-2023-2
    Direct Access (subscription may be required) https://www.barrons.com/advisor/topics/guide-to-wealth
  • Towle Deep Value Fund: what a difference 10 days can make
    As the sharp dip in 2020 (pandemic) and subsequent strong rebound come and go from 3-yr windows, this behavior won't be that unusual. It is dramatic for TDVFX because it didn't do much post-pandemic. M* Performance page does show 10-yr chart, and annual as well as 3-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr performance.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/tdvfx/performance
  • Towle Deep Value Fund: what a difference 10 days can make
    Towle is a deep value / small cap fund. It's about the purest deep value play around, which is attractive because the academic research says that the "value effect" is most apparently in really deep value just as the small cap effect is most visible in really small caps.
    Nice people doing hard stuff.
    They're currently a one-star fund in Morningstar's system. Charles's rating of them since inception (2011) is comparable: 1 (lowest 20% in the peer group based on risk adjusted returns). Which made their quarterly report pop, as they noted that their SMA composite for their strategy returned just over 19% annually for the past three years. Morningstar's three-year numbers, which by default at the last 36 months from today, are far lower. Curious, I checked.
    What a difference 10 days makes: the fund loses one-third of its trailing three-year returns when you shift from 9/30/23 as your end date to 10/13/2023. That's about 10 trading days. But the opposite effect is seen in the five year returns, which improve by 50%.
    Three year returns (per Morningstar)
    As of 9/30/23: 19.18%
    As of 10/13/23: 12.74% - a 33% decline
    Five year returns
    As of 9/30/23: 2.47%
    As of 10/13/23: 3.76% - a 50% rise
    Ten year returns
    As of 9/30/23: 6.43%
    As of 10/13/23: 5.86% - a 10% decline
    One reason that MFO traditionally pushed "full market cycles" as the metric rather than arbitrary windows (what is the significance of "three years"?) is that you need to find a way to avoid being misled by performance reports that might reflect one performance bubble rolling off just as a drawdown rolls on.
    Which is to say: look long and hard (looking at you, Ms. Woods) before concluding "those numbers are sweet! Here's my money!"
  • CrossingBridge and Cohanzick 3Q23 Commentary - No Fat Pitches
    OK, this is about 11/1/10. I see at Yahoo Finance,
    Nov 01, 2010 9.98 9.98 9.98 9.98 6.93
    But this didn't happen just on that day. It represents years of dividend/CG adjustment between 10/1/10 and now (about 13 years!). That is lot of backward-ratio-adjustments in adjusted-prices.
  • CrossingBridge and Cohanzick 3Q23 Commentary - No Fat Pitches
    Nov 01, 2010 9.98 10.01 9.95 9.95 7.11 RPHYX
    Can anyone explain why the adj. close was 7.11 at this point in time ?
    **Adjusted close price adjusted for splits and dividend and/or capital gain distributions.
    Info from Yahoo Finance .
  • TD Ameritrade's websites are no longer operational ?
    MikeM picked up on a possibility I overlooked; that you might not have any idea that TDA accounts were moved over to Schwab. As he noted, a call to them will facilitate your conversion (account numbers, login, etc). Be aware that if you're coming from TOS, Schwab should grandfather in the TOS trading fee structure for $15 trades.
  • Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks
    I prefer PRWCX . It beat FBALX for 3-5-10-15 years and tie for one year and with lower SD.
    One of the only funds that looks everywhere. PRWCX has a big % of its bonds in HY+BL.
  • SS COLA 2024
    @Old Joe . My guess is the CMS just pulls numbers out of some data banks which are not accurate.
    Enough with the guessing, please. Not when two minutes of searching can turn up the actual practices one is interested in.
    BLS data collectors visit (in person, on the web, or using apps) or call thousands of retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices, all over the United States to obtain information on the prices of the thousands of items used to track and measure price changes in the CPI. We record the prices of about 80,000 items each month, representing a scientifically selected sample of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services purchased.
    During each call or visit, the data collector collects price data on a specific good or service that was precisely defined during an earlier visit. If the selected item is no longer available, or if there have been changes in the quality or quantity (for example, a 64-ounce container has been replaced by a 59-ounce container) of the good or service since the last time prices were collected, a new item is selected or the quality change in the current item is recorded.
    Prices used to compute the CPI are collected during the entire month. CPI data is published monthly, with the index value representing an estimate of the price level for the month as a whole, rather than a specific date. Since certain prices, particularly gasoline, might move sharply within a month, it is useful to understand the timing of price collection. A month is divided into three pricing periods, each period corresponding to roughly the first ten days, second ten days, or third ten days of the month.
    When an item is initiated into the CPI sample, its pricing period is established, and it will be repriced during that same period until it exits the sample after four years. Data collectors have discretion within pricing periods, so they can collect quotes at any time during the period. So, it's not necessarily true that data collection is spread perfectly evenly through the month; however, roughly equal amounts of data are collected in each pricing period. Rent prices are an exception to this, as prices in the rent sample are not divided by pricing periods, and specific rent quotes can be collected at any time during the month.
    Pricing information is then sent to our national office, where specialists who have detailed knowledge about the particular goods or services review the data. These specialists check the data for accuracy and consistency, and make any necessary corrections or adjustments. Adjustments can range from an adjustment for a change in the size or quantity of a packaged item, to more complex adjustments based upon statistical analysis of the value of an item's features or quality. Thus, commodity specialists strive to prevent changes in the quality of items from affecting the CPI's measurement of price change.
    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm (Q11)
    Use a discount store such as Aldi or Walmart.
    You and @hank seem to be conflating dollar increases with percentage increases. An item might cost $10 at Aldi and $12 at Safeway, or $10 in Lansing and $12 in U.P. (say, in Houghton, whose cost of living is 17% higher than Lansing's).
    If prices everywhere go up 10%, then in the lower priced store (area) the price increases "just" $1, while in the higher priced store (area) the price increases $1.20. Some might look at that and think "20% more", but it's the same percentage increase.
    Certainly a $1 increase would represent a higher percentage price hike where prices are cheaper (Aldi, Lansing) than where prices are more expensive (Safeway, Houghton). But why would one expect the dollar increase to be the same in both places?
    I don't expect gas prices to go up by just 10¢ a gallon in Honolulu when they go up by a dime in Kalamazoo. There's more to the retail price of gas than the cost of the product itself. There are shipping costs, real estate (gas station) costs, etc. Those aren't fixed; they're going up also, and those costs are higher for Hawaii than elsewhere.
    There are differences by region and by retailer. A sampling is not representative if restricted to one store, type of store, or region.
  • "It's Almost Time to Buy Small-Caps"
    A rare 2nd DEATH-CROSS for small-cap R2000/IWM today. 1st was in April.
    There were high hopes for GOLDEN-CROSSES that turned out to be false in January and July.
    The same is also seem for better index SP SC 600 (IJR, SPSM).
    Bright side may be - but how much worse can it be? Or, it is in giant trading range since 2022.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_IWM&p=D&st=2023-01-01&id=p37153942767
  • the case for Japanese equities
    Japan equity has been crushing it this year, especially currency hedged, up nearly 40% (DXJ). Question is more what happens now, after such a good run. There's been a small-ish selloff lately, and IMHO, it's not a buy-the-dip time, at least not yet.
    P.S. The last year DXJ lost money was 2018.
  • SS COLA 2024
    Big Ten has gone to Peacock for subscription to some of their games. I was wondering if other conferences have gone in this direction ? $8.00 a month , cancel anytime . Just more BS to work through !! Local Friday fish fry has gone up a $1 over the last 12 to 18 months or about 8% increase. Hamburger in local grocery up & down a buck at most. Probably do to cut of meat used.
    We have noted increase in utilities over the last year. I did convert 2 commodes over to hard water & noted a lot less salt being used & some water as water softener wasn't working as hard.
  • SS COLA 2024
    No comment on whether I “believe” the numbers. I don’t dispute that they are honestly computed based on their best ability and the complex methods they use. Catch’s post explains the methodology. So I accept them.
    Where I wonder … Are they comparing apples to apples? If the quality / flavor of my cereal falls, if the fat content of a pound of sirloin increases, if the nutritional value of a pre-cooked frozen meal is lessened, if containers are more cheaply made and break easier, or if smaller sized packages are no longer available (forcing you to buy more than wanted) … do those changes get reflected in COLA? With beer I try to find 12 fl. oz bottles. But a lot of them are now 11.2 oz. Did the COLA gurus factor that in? And if I’m now doing my own scanning and bagging of groceries shouldn’t that devalue those products compared to their worth when checkout service once taken for granted?
    With autos - Do we as consumers realize that they’re in no way comparable to what we bought new just 10 years ago? I’d imagine those COLA figures take into account in price comparisons that a new car today is likely to have factory installed radar, back-up cameras, larger tires and rims, GPS and internet functionality. If they include these new features to a car’s “value” (as I suspect), than the cost increase year to year would appear a lot less on the chart, but would still still ding your pocketbook a whole lot more than 10 years ago. Hard to argue these features don’t increase value / desirability. Few of us would throw them overboard.
    Entertainment? How on earth can they get a firm grip on prices? My Disney /Hulu / ESPN pack is constantly being repriced (upward). While more commercials are being inserted into programs. Fewer top quality channels to choose from. So many different “for-purchase” “extras” (that were once included) that it would take a really sophisticated analyst to get to the bottom of it all.
    One thing that has offset the cost of living in recent years is that some electronic devices have fallen in price. A cheap cellphone can probably be bought for $35 on Amazon. TV’s have come down in price over the past couple decades. And cellular providers have been in a war to undercut one another so that your voice / data subscription may cost less today than 5-10 years ago.
  • SS COLA 2024
    Another use by watcher! Damn, don’t they come up with some of the tiniest, most difficult to read markings? Must be a whole course of study devoted to making those dates nearly invisible.
    In my first year living / working downstate (1970) I’d load up on the “expired” hot dogs the day they were reduced 50%. Pretty much comprised my diet that year. Went OK with Bud. Helped keep the stretched budget in check. Paying off student debt and driving an old beaten up Chev.
  • SS COLA 2024
    "Food prices vary greatly depending on city, state, neighborhood, size of store and distance from distributor."
    Tell me. Yesterday we went shopping for, among other things, bottled orange juice.
    We do some shopping, especially for meat and fish, at a store which is part of a small local "high end" chain. We also shop for items which are commonly found at most markets at major chain stores such as Safeway or Albertson's. And also, for some types of foods, at Costco.
    So yesterday we checked out Safeway for the OJ, and lucked out- Tropicana "Home Style" on sale at $3.49, with "use-by" well into December. Bought four, cost: $14. Then we stopped at the "high end" market for some fish. Just for the hell of it I checked out their price for the same bottle of OJ: $8.99. Cost for four: $36, and the "use by" was only a couple of weeks away.
    I'd think that this proves something or other, but other than the usual "buyer beware" I don't know what.
  • Record Outflows from TIPS ETFs
    As I’ve stated before, I don’t do TIPS (except to the waitress or cab driver).
    An individual TIPS bond is one thing. Not too hard to fathom. Makes sense for someone to buy and hold one having a set maturity (only if meets their needs). But throw those vehicles into a fund with constant investor inflows and outflows and varied maturities … sounds like a very “unhinged” investment with a highly unpredictable outcome. Suspect, however, that once TIPS funds recover and begin posting some attractive 7-10% annual returns (prediction) the unwary will once more pile in thinking again they’ve landed on Easy Street.
  • SS COLA 2024
    Some nice facts cited by david from Google. I’ve separated the food items into two different groups: (1) generally less healthy (cholesterol and / or sodium laden) foods (2) a healthier group foods (resembling my own diet) emphasizing beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and legume-based protein (From February to March, adjusted for seasonal swings)
    Less Healthy Choices
    - eggs … 10.9% decline.
    - Butter sank 6%
    - ham fell 4.8%,
    - hot dogs dropped 2.9% and
    Average monthly price drop: -6.15%
    ————————————————-
    Healthier Choices
    - uncooked beef roasts fell 2.3%.
    - Fish and seafood prices dropped 1.2%.
    - with lettuce falling 5.7%.
    - Fresh fruit and vegetables overall dipped 1.7%.
    - Peanut butter went down by 2.3%.
    Average monthly price drop: -2.64%
    If you consume a lot of eggs, hot dogs, ham and butter your prices that month fell by over 6%. But, if you consume a lot of beef, seafood, lettuce and fruits vegetables and legume-based protein your food costs for the month declined by less than half as much.
    Picky. Picky. But why? Because “cost of living” is a very individual experience. “Average” diet? “Average” auto? “Average” house? While the numbers may not lie, our own individual costs can be substantially different from those averages. I wouldn’t question @fundly’s personal experience or anyone else’s. I’ll accept the government’s published COLA. But those are broad-based averages. They probably do not reflect your own or my own experience.
    Food prices vary greatly depending on city, state, neighborhood, size of store and distance from distributor. In Michigan prices are considerably higher in remote less populated northern areas than in much heavier populated urban areas to the south. So I think antidotal experiences (even if atypical) have a place in discussions of COLA. (None of this is meant to dispute / question the quality or accuracy of random googling.)