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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CrossingBridge and Cohanzick 3Q23 Commentary - No Fat Pitches
    Thank you @davidsherman. I've been a happy customer of RPHYX for quite a few years, and SPC since it's launch. I've been very impressed and kind of amazed with the steady trend line SPC has had over the past year. It's nice to see that both of these funds surpassed treasuries and CDs for 1 year return, though that may be a bit more difficult moving forward if CD's and T's are now in the upper 5% range going forward. But, still betting on you.
  • Record Outflows from TIPS ETFs
    5-yr TIPS Auction is next week on 10/19/23 and est 2.46% + inflation may be good for some. Obviously, that is for 5-yr hold. That compares favorably with 5-yr nominal at 4.69%. TIPS held to maturity behave quite differently than TIPS funds.
    https://treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/A_20231012_5.pdf
    Edit/Add. 5-yr TIPS, 10/19/23. 2.44% (real) YTM (2 3/8% coupon). So, 2.44% + inflation.
    treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/R_20231019_3.pdf
  • Vanguard Bank Sweep & Bank of Baroda
    Vanguard has two different cash sweep programs. They both use the same banks. For reasons described below not having to do with safety, I wouldn't be inclined to keep much money in either sweep account.
    Vanguard Cash Deposit uses the FDIC-insured bank deposits instead of VMFXX as one's core (transaction) account in a Vanguard brokerage account.
    Its current 3.7% APY is well below that of VMFXX (5.28% 7 day yield, compounding to 5.41%) or many internet banks. This is not a place for long term cash. It's just a place to park trading dollars.
    Vanguard Cash Plus Account is Vanguard's latest attempt at providing limited cash management services (no checking or ATM access). Its 4.70% APY looks very good compared with internet banks. But still less than MMFs. Because this account comes with a routing number, you can do EFTs into and out of Vanguard this way.
    It is currently just a pilot program open by invitation only. I haven't been invited :-(
    Aside from the transfer feature, I'm still more inclined to use a Vanguard MMF for cash. If safety is a concern, one can use a government MMF. Still higher yield and safer underlying holdings.
    In the end, if you are keeping a fair amount of money in one of these Vanguard programs and you're not comfortable with FDIC coverage, you can opt out of using Bank of Baroda among the sweep banks.
  • SS COLA 2024
    We go through the same ritual every year - anecdotes about how prices of some class of items or another has shot up. Then a leap from that to inferring that the average increase in prices nationwide can't possibly be what the BLS is reporting.
    Three years ago it was lumber. Soaring through the roof as people sheltered in place and decided to build more shelter. Anyone check the price of lumber recently? It spiked around $1700 during the pandemic, and is now around $500, having dropped 16% over the past year alone.
    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
    Similar figures for some other commodities, such as wheat down a third (33%), dairies (cheese and milk) down about a fifth, and coffee down a quarter.
    OTOH, OJ has roughly doubled in the last year. Climate change (hurricanes) and disease are the attributed causes.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/food-inflation-orange-juice-prices-florida-economy-eggs-olive-oil-2023-10
    This Oct 2023 piece goes on to note: "Other breakfast staples like eggs and bacon soared in price last year but have gotten cheaper in 2023, thanks to higher interest rates dragging down overall inflation."
    That seems consistent with @davidrmoran's random googling above.
  • SS COLA 2024
    Also:
    If I'm reading it right, the links provided by @msf apply to Medicare Advantage Plans. But I have traditional Medicare, and pay for a separate Part D Plan.
    Part B incr: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/12/your-money/social-security-cola-2024.html
    In its annual report to Congress, the Medicare board of trustees projected that premiums would rise to $174.80 in 2024, up from $164.90.
    (If you'd like to go to the original source, the 273 page annual report to Congress is here: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2023)
    Part D incr: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/medicare-advantage-and-medicare-prescription-drug-programs-remain-stable-2024
    CMS previously announced that the average total monthly premium for Medicare Part D coverage is projected to be approximately $55.50 in 2024. This expected amount is a decrease of 1.8% from $56.49 in 2023.
  • SS COLA 2024
    @fundly et alia
    I wonder if you notice this kind of event (just a random googling):
    From February to March, adjusted for seasonal swings, eggs had the most dramatic decrease, with a 10.9% decline. Egg prices soared in previous months primarily due to avian flu, which constrained supply, and companies taking advantage of the disruption to pad profits. But more recently, egg prices have been coming down.
    In the meat aisle, ham fell 4.8%, hot dogs dropped 2.9% and uncooked beef roasts fell 2.3%. Fish and seafood prices dropped 1.2%.
    Butter sank 6%, with lettuce falling 5.7%. Fresh fruit and vegetables overall dipped 1.7%. Peanut butter went down by 2.3%.

    and this is from 6m ago. I know at the local discount supermarket the cereal I favor has gone back to 2020 levels, at least when on sale. I like most try and do larger shopping as a function of sales. (duh)
    You seem a curious person, but I am not sure there can be productive discussion.
    >> quoting CMS press releases that are factually wrong.
    >> I am no expert on how to correct the COLA amounts. What about bringing in a nonaligned, nonpolitical associated advisory group of experts on this subject that would tell our government entity, what the true inflation rate is for the average SS recepient and enact this amount.
    I will have to dig up a host of Krugman articles on inflation calcs showing their ins and outs and data details and choices (smart and foolish).
    For now, go know that 'a nonaligned, nonpolitical associated advisory group of experts' pretty much describes who it is that parses the huge amounts of data and comes up with the provisional bottom line figures. I mean, do you really believe their work is done nefariously / dishonestly / not in good faith ? What is your point other than your disagreement about 'average' citizens? Why the lying on the part of authorities?
    >> A fool would think these figures are true and correct. ... I estimate our food bill has increased by 25% -30% in the past year and expect it to rise way more than 3.8% in the next year. I doubt many would argue with me on this point.
    Well, you should track this, including selected past figs and totals if you can, and write an article, which would make you famous and bring some small moneys.
  • Just discovered that IRL Closed-ended fund is liquidating.
    New Ireland Fund. IRL.
    I've not been in it since the 1990s. But I was certainly surprised.
    https://www.newirelandfund.com/
  • SS COLA 2024
    Also:
    If I'm reading it right, the links provided by @msf apply to Medicare Advantage Plans. But I have traditional Medicare, and pay for a separate Part D Plan.
    The silliness of it all! If I understand THEIR newest mailing correctly, my monthly premium will go down to something like .69 CENTS.
    But my co-pay for Farxiga is almost $400/3 month supply. When I asked about a 1-month supply, the price goes down by $20 or so. Pigeon farts. So I'm getting samples from the doctor.
    On a different website, I read about others faced with the same crazy-high copay for this drug or that drug. They agreed to PAY it, and then the next time they renewed, the copay was much more reasonable.
    This is the stupidest GAME ever invented....... It would not make sense to portion-out that huge initial copay, over time??????? Suck-holes in charge, everywhere. And I'd be willing to pay a reasonable monthly premium if my copay could be brought down!
  • CHS preferreds....

    Are coming closer to - or below - par (most of 'em) again, which got me interested as long-term income holds for QDI.
    Then I noticed their Dec AGM is going to hold votes "on the amount of cash patronage and equity redeemed and distributed to owners" which kind of put my interest on temporary hold until this is resolved.

    "In the last 15 years, the volume of allocated equity has tripled – and it’s more than five times the equity held in 1999. Allocated equity has grown every year, even during times when CHS had strong earnings and returned a significant amount of cash to CHS owners.
    Continuing to manage equity this way will likely mean the CHS equity program has less value to owners over time, since it will likely take decades longer to redeem equity."

    More @ https://www.chsinc.com/about-chs/owners-and-investors/equity
    Since I know some here hold and/or like these things, I figured it worth passing along the item as an FYI.
  • SS COLA 2024
    I’ve noticed the same effect at the local WalMart where I do a lot of grocery shopping. Prices spiked sharply almost overnight 1-2 months ago. Interestingly, that coincided with about the time they did a whole lot of new hiring. Prior to that you might wait in line 30 minutes to an hour to check out. I more than once walked away leaving behind a cart full of foodstuff. But after all these new hires showed up the lines got much shorter / are moving a lot faster. And the new, mostly younger, folks working checkout seem like happy campers too. Looks like WalMart raised the pay / benefits of to attract new workers. That, I think, translated into sharply higher shelve prices almost overnight. . Given a choice, I’ll pay an extra 25-50 cents for a jar of pickles or loaf of bread if it means saving 30 minutes at checkout. “Time is money” as the old expression goes.
    I hope the above doesn’t sound trite. The labor shortage is real and affects the cost of living. In part, it’s a consequence of we aging baby boomers weaving our way through those golden years while the remaining active labor force struggles to keep up with growing demand. Lots of other factors too - like union busting tactics over the past half century that have lowered compensation for common labor, making work less desirable for the less educated.
    I don’t know how current all those recently reported inflation numbers are. But it seems possible to me that the spike in food prices antidotely observed / reported by @fundly and myself are yet to be reflected in those stats. In fact, there was an unexpected spikes in inflation reported this morning that seems to have tanked equitiy prices today out of fear of still higher interest rates.
  • SS COLA 2024
    Thanks for the CPI-W figures posted. My opinion. A fool would think these figures are true and correct. I do the food shopping for the home. One example. At our Aldi, a true discount food store, a box of saltines has gone from 0.95 to 1.49 in the past year. That is a 48% increase. I could go on and on but there is no need. To report a past yearly food inflation rate of 3.8% is absurd. I estimate our food bill has increased by 25% -30% in the past year and expect it to rise way more than 3.8% in the next year.I doubt many would argue with me on this point.
  • SS COLA 2024
    CPI-W "fingers". https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/supplemental-files/cpi-w-202309.xlsx
    	Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): 
    U.S. city average, by expenditure category, September 2023
    [1982-84=100, unless otherwise noted]
    Indent Expenditure category Relative Unadjusted
    Level importance percentage change
    Aug. 2023 Sept. 2022 -
    Sept. 2023
    0 All items 100.000 3.6
    1 Food 14.894 3.8
    2 Food at home 9.391 2.4
    3 Cereals and bakery products 1.258 4.8
    3 Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs 2.119 0.3
    3 Dairy and related products 0.818 -0.3
    3 Fruits and vegetables 1.607 0.7
    3 Nonalcoholic bevs and beverage materials 1.191 4.0
    3 Other food at home 2.397 4.3
    2 Food away from home 5.503 6.1
    1 Energy 8.797 -0.2
    2 Energy commodities 5.102 2.6
    3 Fuel oil 0.081 -6.2
    3 Motor fuel 4.971 2.8
    4 Gasoline (all types) 4.866 3.1
    2 Energy services 3.696 -3.7
    3 Electricity 2.958 2.1
    3 Utility (piped) gas service 0.738 -21.7
    1 All items less food and energy 76.309 4.1
    2 Commodities less food and energy comm. 21.429 -0.2
    3 Apparel 3.028 2.9
    3 New vehicles 3.936 2.5
    3 Used cars and trucks 2.995 -7.9
    3 Medical care commodities 1.292 4.4
    3 Alcoholic beverages 0.695 4.8
    3 Tobacco and smoking products 0.741 5.7
    2 Services less energy services 54.880 5.9
    3 Shelter 33.030 7.2
    4 Rent of primary residence 10.345 7.6
    4 Owners' equivalent rent of residences(1) 21.516 7.0
    3 Medical care services 5.454 -3.6
    4 Physicians' services 1.439 0.1
    4 Hospital services(2) 1.810 4.4
    3 Transportation services 6.408 10.9
    4 Motor vehicle maintenance and repair 1.214 10.3
    4 Motor vehicle insurance 3.463 19.2
    4 Airline fares 0.426 -13.2
    Footnotes:
    (1) Indexes on a December 1982=100 base.
    (2) Indexes on a December 1996=100 base.
  • SS COLA 2024
    How can anyone be so gullible in quoting CMS press releases that are factually wrong. I am looking at a Cigna part D plan , called Cigna Extra which cost 67.60 per month in 2023 and will cost 79.30 per month in 2024 That is a 17% increase on the 11.70 per month increase in cost. And to make matters worse the deductibles are increasing also. And on and on! You can confirm this if you wish. @ davidmoran. I am no expert on how to correct the COLA amounts. What about bringing in a non aligned, non political associated advisory group of experts on this subject that would tell our government entity, what the true inflation rate is for the average SS recepient and enact this amount.
  • CrossingBridge and Cohanzick 3Q23 Commentary - No Fat Pitches
    This quarterly report by @davidsherman is a Masterclass. In 12 pages I learnt how to bust myths around High Yield Energy, Midstream service providers, Private Credit (so important to bust this one), and understand what looks like a fat pitch and what isnt. Thank you for taking the time and showing respect to your investors.
  • SS COLA 2024
    My guess is that after the expected Medicare part B and D cost increases for next year this 3.2% will be a joke and more closer to 0%.
    You would guess wrong. The average monthly increase in SS (based on a 3.2% increase and the average current payment of $1705.59) is $54.58. While we don't have final figures on increases in Medicare Parts B and D, CMS projects them to be $9.90 and $0.64 respectively. That leaves the bulk of the SS increase untouched.
    SS increase: https://www.cnbc.com/select/social-security-2024-cola-increase
    Part B incr: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/12/your-money/social-security-cola-2024.html
    Part D incr: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/medicare-advantage-and-medicare-prescription-drug-programs-remain-stable-2024
    Further, new legislation by the government caps insulin co-pays at $35. That is a significant decrease in medical costs for many people. Though since "only" around 8.4 million people are using insulin, that means that the "man on the street" won't see this. (There are around 50 million retirees receiving Social Security benefits.)
    Soc Sec Retirees: https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf
    Insulin users: https://apnews.com/article/health-prices-diabetes-congress-a2f9986b7bf3500b81d1ec80a01e5abb
  • Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks
    @Derf I added SPY and AGG (bond proxy) to a new chart that reflects total returns, 1 year prior and 1 year following March, 2018 to look for clues. It appears FBALX was better positioned to follow SP500 at the time. One may note the end of 2018. If my brain cells are working properly, was this not a very short period 'flash crash' of the equity market??? Help me remember, eh? CHART
    Meanwhile, I have classic rock music playing 'loud' behind my seated position and perhaps that is affecting my recall. :)
  • SS COLA 2024
    My guess is that after the expected Medicare part B and D cost increases for next year this 3.2% will be a joke and more closer to 0%. 3.2% HUH! We all know how foolish this number is. Just renewed car and home insurance with an average 13% total increase. Food prices up 3.2% ?? This is why the average American distrusts our folks in DC. Fortunately our family does not depend on SS for any living costs but I it is truly sad for those who must, as noted by @hank above