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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fitch Puts the US AAA Rating on a Negative Watch
    What will be the rating if we do default?
    image
  • Cathie Wood’s ARKK Dumped Nvidia Just Before Stock’s Historic Run
    Although Wood holds Nvidia across several of her smaller funds, investors in the flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) have mostly been left out of this year’s blistering 159.90% rally.
    OOPS!
    Story Here
  • Barrons article on How to Sneak into Closed Funds
    Vanguard Health Care had an annualized 16.4% return during Ed Owens'
    long tenure (05/23/1984 - 12/31/2012) compared to the the S&P 500 index's 10.7% return.
    This fund has not performed as well since Jean Hynes became the sole named manager in 2013.
    Note: Today it was announced that longtime analyst Rebecca Sykes
    was promoted to comanager on Vanguard Health Care.
  • Making the switch to Fidelity this week
    [snip]
    Also, I would not leave a dime in any Wells Fargo accounts. That bank has a poor history, and I'm not convinced that the culture there has changed. If a bank is opening accounts that customers didn't approve, you don't deal with that bank.
    +1
    "Wells Fargo has been sanctioned repeatedly by U.S. regulators for violations of consumer protection laws going back to 2016, when employees were found to have opened millions of accounts illegally in order to meet unrealistic sales goals. Since then, executives have repeatedly said Wells is cleaning up its act, only for the bank to be found in violation of other parts of consumer protection law, including in its auto and mortgage lending businesses."
    "While Wells Fargo tried to frame the agreement with the CFPB as a resolution of established bad behavior, CFPB officials said some of the violations cited in Tuesday’s order took place this year."
    Link
  • new deep-dive swr math
    @davidrmoran,
    I offered this for discussion back in 2020 from the poor swiss website:
    updated-trinity-study-for-2020-more-withdrawal-rates/p1
    Nice to see further updates. Thanks.
    thanks for reminder; I did do a site search, so as not to take novel credit unduly :)
  • ICI Fact Book, 2023
    ICI Fact Book, 2023
    The new 2023 ICI Factbook is now available. Both the full PDF (long) & separate chapter PDFs are available; downloadable Excel files for each chapter are also available. Topics covered include funds – OEFs, ETFs, CEFs; TDFs, 529s, 401k/403b, IRAs, fund history & regulation.
    Fact Book Website www.icifactbook.org/
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Just a follow up note on Charles Schwab banks issuing CDs. On the Schwab Brokerage site today, Charles Schwab Bank, located in Westlake Texas, is offering an 18 month CD with an interest rate of 5.05%. It has an overall B rating, with 2 subcategories with F ratings. It appears that some of the posters on this thread is recommending ignoring that Banks Health Rating Status. Maybe they are right, but I will not invest in any Bank CD offering with that poor of a health rating--there are too many other Banks with better health ratings than this Schwab Bank.
  • Greenspring Fund, Inc. to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/711322/000089418923003906/greenspringfundreorg497est.htm
    97 1 greenspringfundreorg497est.htm 497
    Greenspring Fund, Inc.
    Supplement dated May 25, 2023 to the
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated May 1, 2023, as supplemented
    At a meeting held on May 4, 2023, the Board of Directors of the Greenspring Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”) approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan of Reorganization”) with respect to the Fund. The Plan of Reorganization provides for the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Fund into the Cromwell Greenspring Mid Cap Fund (the “New Fund”), a newly-created series of Total Fund Solution, a Delaware statutory trust. The Board of Trustees of Total Fund Solution approved the Plan of Reorganization on May 18, 2023.
    A combined proxy statement/prospectus (the “Proxy Statement”) seeking Fund shareholder approval for the Reorganization and containing more information regarding the Reorganization will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, a notice of a special meeting of shareholders and the Proxy Statement will be sent to Fund shareholders in the near future. The special meeting of shareholders is expected to occur on or about July 24, 2023 at which shareholders of record as of June 16, 2023 will be asked to vote on the proposal to approve the Reorganization. If the Plan of Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders, shareholders of the Fund will receive Institutional Class shares of the New Fund having the same aggregate net asset value as the shares of the Fund they hold on the date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization will not affect the value of your account in the Fund at the time of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is expected to be treated as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes. The New Fund's management fee and operating expense ratio will remain the same as the Fund. However, Corbyn Investment Management, Inc. (“Corbyn”), the Fund’s current investment adviser, believes that the operational efficiencies anticipated as a result of the Reorganization may lead to a decrease in the New Fund’s operating expense ratio over time.
    Prior to the Reorganization, which is expected to occur on or about July 28, 2023, Corbyn will continue to manage the Fund in the ordinary course. After the Reorganization, Cromwell Investment Advisors, LLC (“Cromwell”) will serve as investment adviser for the New Fund and Corbyn will serve as the investment sub-adviser for the New Fund. Charles vK. Carlson and Michael Goodman, the current portfolio managers for the Fund, will also be the portfolio managers of the New Fund and will continue to be responsible for the day-to-day management of the New Fund’s portfolio. The New Fund will have similar, but not identical, investment objectives and principal investment strategies as the Fund. Unlike the Fund, the New Fund does not have (1) a secondary investment objective of obtaining income, and (2) a principal investment strategy of investing in fixed income securities. A comparison of the investment objective, policies and strategies of the Fund and the New Fund will be provided in the Proxy Statement. Cromwell and Corbyn have agreed to assume all of the costs of the Reorganization.
    Fund shareholders may purchase and redeem shares of the Fund in the ordinary course until the last business day before the closing of the Reorganization. Purchase and redemption requests received after that time will be treated as purchase and redemption requests for shares of the New Fund.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Fitch Puts the US AAA Rating on a Negative Watch
    Congress is on Memorial Recess now, but may be recalled on short notice. More precious days to the debt-ceiling deadline wasted.
    Meanwhile, very short-term T-Bills yields are acting up, while the dollar is getting stronger. This may be getting complicated and messier.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p78212751137
    Nothing ... NOTHING will ever get in the way of scheduled Congressional vacations away from DC -- er, "district work periods."
  • How do you spell B-I-F-U-R-C-A-T-E-D?
    I can’t remember such a bifurcated market as in recent days. The S&P has been positive all day with the Dow running in reverse. The bigger news is the NASDAQ, up 250+ points or 1.6% today alone (at noon) and far outdistancing the Dow & S&P to date. Bloomberg’s talking heads (always a suspect source) are using the word “chasing” a lot today in trying to analyze recent investor behavior. I tend to agree. But, what’s new there?
    The NASDAQ is benefiting from a double-digit rise in Nvidia, which reported strong earnings yesterday after the markets closed. Gold and precious metals continue to sink, with gold now below $1950. Miners (GDX) are off another 1.90% today after a 2.3% drubbing yesterday. Oil is also getting burnt today.
    Recall that recent thread: “Gold is breaking out … “ ?
  • Fitch Puts the US AAA Rating on a Negative Watch
    Congress is on Memorial Recess now, but may be recalled on short notice. More precious days to the debt-ceiling deadline wasted.
    Meanwhile, very short-term T-Bills yields are acting up, while the dollar is getting stronger. This may be getting complicated and messier.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p78212751137
  • Barrons article on How to Sneak into Closed Funds
    "In November 2021, T. Rowe launched its Summit Program, which allows any investor with more than $250,000 at the firm to buy top-performing closed funds like Capital Appreciation. Of course, many investors don’t have that kind of wealth and don’t necessarily want to tie up their assets with one money manager. In T. Rowe’s case, though, its brokerage offers funds from other families, stocks, and exchange-traded funds—and assets in them count toward Summit’s minimum."
  • new deep-dive swr math
    For those who pay an advisor to manage their money, those advisor's management fees need to be accounted for as well. These fees represent an additional "withdrawal" to your SWR rate.
    The two largest fees are your fund's expense ratios (mutual fund or ETF management fee) and your independent advisor's management fees. If you employ a portfolio manager often they will withdraw 1% of your portfolio yearly. That kind of a 1% "drag" on your SWR can reduce a very significant amount of your wealth over long periods of time (30 - 40 years in retirement for example).
    To illustrate this, I will use a highly efficient mutual fund (VFINX...low ER) and run a simulation through Portfolio Visualizer. I set the withdrawal rate of 1% over the life of the simulation to see what the impact of just the management fee would be on the portfolio's ending value. I used $1,000 as the starting Portfolio value.
    https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest
    Time frame: 1985 - 2023 (38 years)
    Paying management fees of 1% (withdrawn yearly) on a portfolio starting value of $1K in 1985, this portfolio would have grown to $38K by 2023. The Inflation adjusted value of that $1K in 1985 = $13K in 2023.
    Removing the 1% withdrawal the during this same time frame, $1K(1985) grew to $56K (2023), with and adjusted inflation value of $19.5K.
    This means that the a retiree, who paid a 1% management fee throughout retirement (1985-2023), had a portfolio that was 33% less than the same retiree who self managed their retirement portfolio.
    Another way of looking at this is that your advisor made $18K (the difference between $56K-$38K) advising you over these 38 year. You made $27K. If you need advice...pay for it hourly, not as a percentage under management.
    If there is one thing we all can do to improve our success with SWR in retirement it would be to reduce the fees that we pay on both the funds we invest in and advisor fees we pay others.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/24/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/24/23
    For the week ending on 5/24/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (39.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (27.4%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.9%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -12.3% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (65+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up. Fitch put the US debt on negative watch as the debt-ceiling deadline 6/1/23 approaches & there is now Memorial Day recess. The regional banking crisis continues. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1044/thread
  • new deep-dive swr math
    @davidrmoran,
    how is it no one has stumbled on this interesting guy?
    https://thepoorswiss.com/updated-trinity-study/
    I offered this for discussion back in 2020 from the poor swiss website:
    updated-trinity-study-for-2020-more-withdrawal-rates/p1
    Nice to see further updates. Thanks.
  • Fitch Puts the US AAA Rating on a Negative Watch
    Marjorie Taylor Greene is worth $56 million, so she probably doesn't ever know what her salary is !
    56 million. That by itself is criminal.
  • Fitch Puts the US AAA Rating on a Negative Watch
    Marjorie Taylor Greene is worth $56 million, so she probably doesn't ever know what her salary is !
  • Sell all bond funds?
    ccor -10% ytd
    this putz
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566591-ccor-strong-buy-based-on-its-unique-risk-management-approach
    shoulda bought qqq / vong 50-50 with aok :)
    or, indeed, 40-60 or 30-70 or 20-80 ....
  • Fed Officials Divided Over June Rate Pause
    The “wrecking crew” is finding it harder than expected to destroy the economy. Give ‘em time.
    Story / USA Today
    I found the actions / statement overnight by the New Zealand central bank of interest. Linked below:
    Related