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Cash is yielding more than it has in a decade—so are equities even worth the trouble? We won’t bury the lede. The answer is still yes. But it’s a fair question. Using three-month Treasuries as a cash proxy, investors can earn more than 5% on cash. This is the highest yield since 1995. ...
[It goes on to show how much a pile of cash falls behind stocks over time, and the odds of cash doing better than stocks.]
The lesson is clear: The opportunity cost of sitting in cash is huge and grows over time. ...
There are no perfect allocations or times to invest in risk assets. ...The best thing investors can do is figure out an allocation that works for them and avoid guessing what will happen based on one’s feelings.
How will that feel for the folks that held bonds during the preceding vaporization? Will all be forgiven?An investor who bought a 10-year US Treasury bond at a yield of 4.5 per cent would see a total return of roughly 13 per cent if that yield fell 1 percentage point over 12 months. If the recession ended up being relatively nasty and the yield fell 2 percentage points, their return would exceed 20 per cent.
That has always been my impression too. Out of curiosity I checked in on my position in EYLD. Cambria's foreign shareholder-yield fund, is 21% Japan. That's its highest country concentration. OTOH, IHDG is only 7.96% Japan.My impression has generally been that Japanese companies don't really care much about shareholder value.
See this recent article:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/investors-seek-break-through-japan-incs-value-trap-2023-04-20/#:~:text=Japan's stock market has long,care little about shareholder returns.
Excerpt: "Japan's stock market has long been seen by investors as a 'value trap' where companies focus on market share, hoard cash and care little about shareholder returns."
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/product-brief/blackrock-clo-aaa-etf-product-brief-stamped.pdfWhile the BlackRock AAA CLO ETF (the “Fund”) will invest primarily in CLO tranches that are rated AAA, such ratings do not constitute a guarantee of credit quality and may be downgraded. In stressed market conditions, it is possible that even senior CLO debt tranches could experience losses due to actual or perceived defaults, and rating downgrades and forced liquidations of underlying collateral. CLO securities may be less liquid than other types of securities and there is no guarantee that an active secondary market will exist or be maintained
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