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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    Ah, the old "welfare queen" mythology. It never gets old for the GOP, does it? https://newrepublic.com/article/154404/myth-welfare-queen
    Only now the focus is on kids in gender studies classes ostensibly smoking weed with their meager amount of dole. What will happen I wonder to this "lazy bum" argument when AI and robots cause double digit unemployment even among white collar workers? Will the Puritans still insist everyone be working constantly or be deemed sinful in the eyes of God?
  • New to brokered CD's
    @Observant1, I apologized for the mistake. Should have taken a screen shot and the CUSIP #. Again, my mistake. Schwab offers a non-callable 12 months CD at 5.1%.
  • New to brokered CD's
    I didn't find a 12 month 5.2% non-callable JP Morgan CD at Vanguard.
    There was a callable JP Morgan CD with the same coupon.
    CUSIP: 46656MBT7
    Security type: Certificate of deposit
    Issuer: JP Morgan Chase Bank NA
    Maturity: 05/08/2024
    Coupon: 5.200
    Callable: Yes
    Call timing: 11/09/2023 at 100 on 5 days notice
  • New to brokered CD's
    Thanks for that, @Sven.
    Just checked- not yet at Schwab. Best noncall-1 yr rates at Schwab = 5.1%
  • New to brokered CD's
    Just saw 12-month CD (non-callable) with 5.20% yield from JP Morgan at Vanguard brokerage. JP Morgan CDs are generally callable. Keep watching as these CDs should make their way to other brokerages.
  • Time running out for US financial firms to bid for ailing bank First Republic
    I thought an announcement would be made before Asian markets opened.
    The Tokyo Stock Exchange and Korea Exchange opened approximately 1.5 hours ago.
    There hasn't been any news yet...
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    The Kiplinger list in the initial post is an odd one to achieve this goal. The surprising thing is there aren't really any large bluechip gun companies, despite how much political influence they have in the U.S. Smith & Wesson SWBI is the largest pure play on guns, although Vista Outdoor (VSTO) and Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings SPWH are bigger companies overall:https://insidermonkey.com/blog/5-biggest-gun-companies-in-the-world-1084538/?singlepage=1 None qualifies as a large cap stock. This article, albeit from 2016, has rather fascinating info on this weird gun company world in what was then the ten biggest companies: https://motherjones.com/politics/2016/06/fully-loaded-ten-biggest-gun-manufacturers-america/
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    Viewed news program that showed a modified pistol that would fire off 15 rounds in 2 seconds . Just what every gun nut needs !?
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    Here is a piece from VOX to follow up what @AndyJ posted above :
    they have proven unwilling to make major cuts to the three biggest components of the federal budget: Social Security, Medicare, and the military. And so their just-passed spending plan focuses heavily on what’s left: mostly, programs for the poor.
    https://vox.com/future-perfect/2023/4/29/23701153/medicaid-work-requirements-republicans-food-stamps-cash-welfare
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    @AndyJ, I was responding your comment while commenting on a broader context. Sorry that I should have link to your earlier post. In the last few months, the 1 and 2 yr treasury’s have been volatile, especially in March with the SVB and Signature. There was only 2 days when 2 yr Treasury went over 5.0% in March and it stays below that ever since.
    The inverted yield curve makes prediction challenging beyond 2 years. As for fixed income investing, I like these bond funds:
    Vanguard short term treasury index, ETF, VGSH, Avg effective maturities -2.0 years, 30 days SEC yield - 4.43%.
    Taking on a bit more on credit risk,
    Vanguard short term corporate index, ETF, VCSH. Avg effective maturities - 3.0 yr, 30 days SEC yield - 5.22%.
    I like your approach for potential cap gain for longer duration bond finds such as BND and BOND. Since the beginning of this year, I have invested back into BND and DODIX on dollar cost verage basis. If the FED is near the end of rate hike, bonds in general will do okay. If the FED starts to cut rate, the intermediate-term bonds will be in good position to have good capital gain.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Intermediate duration is doing pretty well recently ... in funds. And, @Sven, if you were responding to my older post, I think my language wasn't clear enough: I realize 5% in a 2y is not happening. The point is that under more normal circumstances, the 2y runs fairly closely along with the Fed rate, and we are far from normal circumstances.
    A 1y in the high 4's (~ 4.8 now), though, is pretty attractive for part of an FI portfolio if you assume short rates will be falling over time, and even 4.02 for a 2y wouldn't be all that bad under those circumstances. A combination of some HTM T's of 1y or longer (including some higher-yielding shorter term T's for current safe yield) with a fund or funds for good yield and possible cap gains, or at least limited risk of loss, wouldn't be a bad approach.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Good interview:
    1. He believes FED will pause after May3rd FOMC meeting and holds the rate above 5% for a bit longer than people think; perhaps into 2025.
    2 FED is losing money by holding long dated treasury yielding 2% while many are paying 4% today. FED is not buying more and let the rest mature and rolling off their book.
    3. Mentioned that the FED made the mistake (QE and zero interest rate policy) and now trying to contain inflation that they created when they pumped too much money into people during the pandemic. Vast consumption post-pandemic caused high inflation. (Think the exact root causes are more complex than just the consumer driven event)
    4. Large banks are doing fine through this turmoil but he believes there will be more consolidation and regulations just as the time period of S&L crisis.
    5. He believes US financial system is strong and recommends investing in S&P 1500 that covers large-, mid-, and small-caps stocks. (Noted that large cap tech stocks are reporting good earnings, and that may not be the case for the smaller caps. Also the earning expectation has been guided downward, not the other way around)
    6. Also he like bonds in general, but he like stocks better for the long term
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Next week, the FED is likely to hike another 25 bps rate. In light of the banking turmoil, that may be the last rate hike the rest of the year. I think it is too optimistic to expect the FED to cut rate soon unless the economy falls into s severe recession.
    I think that's right. About the rest of your post:
    I'm holding intermediate-term junk.
    Effective duration on PRCPX is down to 3.41 years. I just checked. The portfolio manager has moved shorter than before. Yield = 6.03%.
    TUHYX effective duration =4.15 years. Yield = 6.62%.
    I'm still enjoying the ride. Share price has crept up, too.
    Source: Morningstar.
  • Low-Road Capitalism 5: Private Equity Edition
    I was personally affected when in 2015 Prospect Medical Holdings ( owned by Leonard Green a PE firm) bought our CT hospital after two previous publicly traded companies "suitors" ( hoping to buy both hospitals in town) had been chased off by the left wing Democratic Governor. The hospital was close to going under.
    The two previous offers were to build an entirely new hospital and combine both institutions, so they would not longer undercut each other in our small city. These offers were far superior and could have been much better monitored because they involved public companies and a pension fund. Unfortunately, the CT governor was beholden to our hospital union and threw up all sorts of crazy conditions, so they backed out.
    We got all sorts of promises about capital infusions etc from Prospect but none materialized.
    We sold our practice to the hospital/Prospect in 2018. At the physician level Prospect was fairly benign, although they refused to buy any new equipment like scanners and computers. I retired, in 2019 after 40 years of practice that I loved, because the electronic medical record required me to work to 9PM just entering data. They refused to pay $20 an hour to hire a scribe to help me. It was apparently far more efficient to make a physician do the work of a clerk. Both of my replacements have quit in less than a year.
    Since then, Leonard Green had Prospect to borrow $1.2 Billion in 2019. Prospect paid Green and the chief executive a $675 million dollar dividend. Prospect CEO alone got $90 million. To pay the loan back, Prospect sold all their hospitals to Medical Properties Trust (MPW) and then leased them back. By 2021 they had stop paying rent, and MPW stock is down to $8 from $25.
    Two Prospect hospitals in Delaware ( one the only source of care for 80,000 people I think) and three in Texas have closed completely. Rhode Island AG refused to let them sell the two there until they put up $80 million in escrow.
    MPW is unloading the CT hospitals to Yale New Haven Hospital for the amount it paid for them in 2020, because Yale doesn't want the other big CT system, Hartford Hospital to get them. The hospitals in Delaware and Texas are closed for good.
    As I have posted before, ProPublica has done an excellent series on Prospect documenting the millions Green got, but Prospect didn't have cash to buy gas for the ambulances.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/rich-investors-stripped-millions-from-a-hospital-chain-and-want-to-leave-it-behind-a-tiny-state-stands-in-their-way
    Another excellent source on the abuses of PE I have found is
    https://pestakeholder.org/
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    TNR: "Republicans also want work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Adults without children must fulfill work requirements up to the age of 56, overturning current law that has the threshold at age 49. Not only are such cuts punitive in nature, but they effectively leave people more vulnerable to precarity."
    The objective and the results are pretty clear: throw more people off these programs. The estimate in the Moody's piece shows it would "save" $120 billion over the ten year time frame.
    Meanwhile the MSM continues to accept and parrot the GQP framing. None of the talking heads ever ask about rescinding the 2017 tax cuts for those who don't need them.
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    For some folks the "theater" could cost them their lives if McCarthy et al have their way: https://newrepublic.com/post/172066/house-gops-debt-ceiling-plan-calls-medicaid-snap-work-requirements
    On Medicaid, Republicans want recipients to fulfill certain income and work thresholds. If they don’t, states could kick them off their health insurance plans. A Congressional Budget Office report estimated that Medicaid work requirements would cause two million people to lose health coverage.
    Republicans also want work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Adults without children must fulfill work requirements up to the age of 56, overturning current law that has the threshold at age 49. Not only are such cuts punitive in nature, but they effectively leave people more vulnerable to precarity. The less we support people preemptively, the higher the costs will be if they fall through the cracks.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    The movement of the short and long duration yields is independent to each other. The longer end is determined by the market while the short end is controlled by the FED’s rate. It is counterintuitive to extend duration toward the intermediate duration, ~5-7 years. Treasury yield curve is still inverted and the probability of having 2yr yield at 5% is nearly nil. However, IG bond funds with short- and intermediate- duration are yielding 5%.
    Next week, the FED is likely to hike another 25 bps rate. In light of the banking turmoil, that may be the last rate hike the rest of the year. I think it is too optimistic to expect the FED to cut rate soon unless the economy falls into s severe recession.
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    “ … there may be many more gun-manufacturer-free funds out there. The list above comes from Kipplingers 25 favorite MFs, a pretty small sample.”
    Agree @BenWP - That’s just a small sample. There’s a hard to find link in the article that takes you to a screener.
    Here it is: FUND GUN SCREENER
    By way of example, here’s what the screener produced when I entered ASRAX: ”Gun grade: No holdings flagged for our civilian firearm screens. Assigned a grade of A.”
    Unfortunately, some funds i tried to screen (CEF @ OEF) were not found. One was a fund-of-funds which likely makes the task more difficult.
    Thanks @msf for all the clarification and added information. It gets complicated for sure. I hope some of the major fund companies will go on record and, in some way, shape, or manner, disavow investments in arms manufacturers whose non-military, non-law enforcement related products too often wind up in the wrong hands and do so much damage to innocent persons. (I think there’s already been some limited progress.) There’s likely to be different interpretations and implementation of such policy. But, heavens, we need to start somewhere.
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    The cite given in the article, gunfreefunds.org, is under the As You Sow Invest Your Values umbrella that I've suggested before.
    In calling out Lockheed Martin (LMT), it seems the writer is conflating two different though related issues: military weapons manufacturing and civilian firearms manufacturing. If your concern is about companies involved with the leading cause of death of children in the US, then look at the list of gun free funds.
    According to Money Magazine, there are only two publicly traded US companies that manufacture (civilian guns): Smith & Wesson (SWBI) and Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR), though American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) is the parent company of Smith & Wesson.
    https://money.com/avoid-gun-stocks-investing-advice/
    There are many other gun manufacturers, but they tend to be private. Here's a list of the top 25 firearm manufacturers. It includes familiar names like Colt (Colt CZ Group SE, traded on the Prague stock exchange), Beretta (privately owned, Italian parent), and Glock Ges.m.b.H (privately owned).
    https://orchidadvisors.com/top-25-largest-firearm-manufacturers-of-2021/
    GunFreeFunds takes ownership a step further (as noted in the Kiplinger piece) by considering parent companies of privately owned manufacturers. For example, it looks out for ownership of Colt CZ Groupe SE (CZG). Here's its whole list of companies it looks for:
    https://gunfreefunds.org/how-it-works
    M* has an article similar to Kiplingers.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1133372/how-to-find-gun-stocks-in-your-fund-portfolios
    It offers its own sampling of gun free funds
    image
    If you're interested in avoiding companies involved in weapons of war (military contractors, munitions manufacturers, nuclear arms manufacturers, etc.), Invest Your Values provides the site weaponsfreefunds.org.
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    @hank: there may be many more gun-manufacturer-free funds out there. The list above comes from Kipplingers 25 favorite MFs, a pretty small sample.