AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/18/25
BEARISH became the top sentiment (41.4%, high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.4%, below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (33.2%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -8.2% (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (173+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+12 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 67.38% (positive). Fed held rates. G-7 was a dud. Oil rose on Israel-Iran skirmishes with missiles & drones. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2049/thread

Not sure how to read that. Our mmkt & fixed income is paying between 4 and 5% per annum. DrVenture is saying that he's at about 4% YTD, which would translate to about 8% per annum, assuming continuity of circumstances.

We're in our mid-80s, and pretty much in the same position financially. The allocation varies, but using Schwab the lineup right now is 59% SUTXX mmkt and 41% fixed income. The fixed ladder is 56% Treasury out to 1/28, and 44% CDs, out to 6/27.

It took me a bit to figure out what the purported stats were about. They took the first 5 months (a cherry-picked slice or time) of each President going back to Nixon, the subtracted inflation from nominal wage growth to get "real" wage growth. The. numbers are "enhanced" by the recent drop in inflation, while wage growth itself was nothing particularly out of the ordinary.
For instance, if nominal wage growth were 4% monthly on average, but inflation went from 3% to 2.3%, the real wage growth would go from 1% to 1.7%. A function of inflation. To conclude that this is Trump's work is laughable, as we were already experiencing wage competition in blue collar industries, and inflation has been trending downward for more than a year.
No way that Trump brought down inflation in only 5 months with "America First" policies. No causal connection at all, in fact. And the wage growth in nominal terms was already being driven upward and is actually lower than Biden's last year. Hourly wages at 4.1% growth vs 5.5% peak in early 2024.
What we have here is statistically tomfoolery. P T Barnum level stuff.
Play with this for a more revealing picture:
https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker#Tab1

Back to the OP about inflation - "Fed sees its preferred inflation gauge topping 3% this year, higher than previous forecast"
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/federal-reserve-dot-plot-and-economic-projection-june-2025.html
"Federal Open Market Committee participants said at their June meeting that they expect the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, to increase at a 3.1% rate in 2025, higher than their prior forecast of 2.8% in March."

Post-FOMC Notes
Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40% (generous), discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continued -$5 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
Inflation-expectations remain high now but should be headed down longer term. Rate increases cannot be ruled out, but they have very low probability for the next few years. Prospects of tariff-inflation are unclear. GDP growth has been distorted by abnormal imports/exports ahead of tariffs. Oil & gasoline prices have move up on Israel-Iran skirmishes, but those hikes may not stick (or, may). The US is almost self-sufficient in oil & gas, so it's less vulnerable to external disturbances.
Labor market is solid. Wage growth is moderate. The unemployment rate of 4.2% is still near full employment. Both labor supply & demand have deteriorated, but they remain in balance. This may explain why tougher immigration hasn't affected the labor data yet. However, it's harder to find new jobs or replacement jobs.
Housing has additional complexity in that its short- and long- term outlooks are different.
Uncertainties have diminished but remain elevated due to tariffs, trade, immigration & geopolitics. These have caused wider dispersions in the SEPs. However, pay more attention to short-term projections.
Effects of AI may be positive (general prosperity) or negative (deflationary). AI may augment the labor or replace it. But changes would be transformational.
Fed is data dependent but also forward-looking, so he couldn't be tied down to what the past data showed.
Economic data collection is important because good data benefits all - public, businesses, government. It's an investment in the future.
US fiscal policies & big global economic changes aren't within the purview of the Fed, so it will wait & react to those as they come.
New SEPs (summaries of economic projections) were released.
5-yr review of the Fed about policies & communications is almost complete. These reviews have been done since 2012 - they were done annually at one time, but now every 5 yrs. It's not affected by changes in Fed leadership. Fed staffing level has been reduced as the government shrinks overall. Powell declined comment on whether he will stay on as Fed Governor after his term as Chair expires (that may determine whether the new Fed Chair after 05/2026 may be internal or external); he also declined to address President Trump's comments about him in the media.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2048/thread

FOMC Statement, 6/18/25
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250618a.htm

50th G-7, June 15-17, was in Canada (rotating presidency, 2025). Besides the G-7 members (including the EU), invited as guests were the leaders of India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Ukraine, Australia, Indonesia & S Korea, plus NATO, UN & World Bank.
President Trump left the G-7 meeting late-Monday, 6/16/25 (after the 1st formal day of G-7), to attend to important matters, but the US delegation remained. The remaining G-6 & guests were left scrambling on the issues of trade, geopolitics, energy transitions & new technologies. Instead of a joint G-7 communique, there were several broad statements & Chair's (Canada) Summary. The G-7 rotating presidency moves to France in 2026.
https://g7.canada.ca/en/news-and-media/news/

Eddy Elfenbein runs this website which is home to his self managed ETF, CWS.
His buy list link mirrors his ETF holdings and provide insight as to his price goals as well as his reasons for holding the security.
https://crossingwallstreet.com/buylist
Periodically he provides his commentary on the Market.
Here's his most recent post regarding the markets:
cws-market-review-june-17-2025.html

Eddy Elfenbein runs this website which is home to his self managed ETF, CWS.
Periodically he provides his commentary on the Market.
Here's his most recent post regarding the markets:
cws-market-review-june-17-2025.html

Yogi’s right. The interest from borrowing for leverage adds to the cost and is reflected in the fees. But fees tend to be on the high side anyway. Completely different animals than what most of us are used to. I now have 10 in a basket at Fido (down from 16 at one time). As noted earlier, I off-loaded the best performers (equity heavy) out of age related risk considerations. BTW GDL (not part of the basket) has bounced nicely since my OP. Up 0.85% today. Crazy.

If I remember correctly the joke on the internet was he was leaving his estate to his cat

That's interesting if true. While states generally don't allow assets to be bequeathed to pets, there is a whole body of law, varying state by state, that enables testators to provide for their pets upon their death. It's anything but simple.
From the NYC Bar Association: https://www.nycbar.org/providing-for-your-pets-in-the-event-of-your-death-or-hospitalization/
This is actually relevant to investors generally. One of the issues mentioned is how to provide for the pet between time of the master's death and the time that the will is probated.

Too often this period is not considered. Although a Will can make provisions for the care of the pet, no action can be taken by the Executor to carry out these provisions until the Will has been admitted to probate and the Executor has received the authority to proceed by the issuance of letters testamentary The time between death and the authority of the Executor to act can vary between several weeks and several months. Plans must be made to ensure care for the pet during this interim period.

Likewise, investors should make plans for any assets that pass through a will. Of course things like "transfer on death", joint tenants with right of survivorship, IRA beneficiaries and the like help reduce the size of assets that the will deals with.
Until an executor/administrator is authorized, those assets are effectively on autopilot. A well balanced portfolio should be able to survive several weeks if not months with no intervention. A 50% gold allocation would not. It is more prudent to invest with one's demise in mind than to invest with concerns of Armageddon on the horizon.

Wonder if he requires another birthday parade next year after nobody showed to this one. Seems like $45M wasted, plus one slightly deflated ego. A big yawn.
And no, he isn't getting any Nobel peace prizes. Iran is just the next diversion for Dump.

After a one-year hiatus, Morningstar brings back the Exemplary Stewardship Award.
Eligibile firms must have an Above Average or High Parent Pillar rating and previous winners are not considered.
This year's winner will be announced in early July.
Exemplary Stewardship Nominees
Dimensional
Fidelity
MFS
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/morningstar-awards-investing-excellence-exemplary-stewardship-nominees-5

relatedly:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/business/stock-market-sp-500-record.html

One of my favorite documents to share with young investors that Wiiliam Bernstein published:
https://etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf

I was the old guy in our department (early 40's) and a few of the younger 20 somethings asked me one time if i went to the 401k meeting and i said no and they said it confused them beyond belief. I told them if they were my kids, I would recommend they put 100% of tehir money in VTSAX (it was available and the rest of the options were meh) and keep piling money into it. Eventually there will be a time to MAYBE do something different but right now in early 20's keep it as simple as possible. I also gave the 2 of them this pdf.
Well at a work function where we all get together (90% remote) i'm sitting with a bunch of the 20 somethings and they are talking about the pdf and someone was like "yeah just use total stock market from vanguard" i'm like oooo boy hopefully I dont' get in trouble.
Last year I looked at our work 401k info on Form5500 website. in 2021 prior to this conversation I had wiht the first person, VTSAX represented 3% of all money invested in the 401k. (me). by the end of 2023 it was 11%. I have no idea if that's as a result of a singular conversation but I kind of feel like it was.

One article on the question
A late night listen prompted me to consider the possibility. Guest was Whitney Baker (audio linked at end). Among the concerns she noted is the amount of leverage (borrowed money) in the system. I’m playing that game myself on small scale by (1) carrying a recent home upgrade on a (interest-free for 18 months) credit card so the money can stay invested in a Roth as long as possible. And I carry a small 3% mortgage on my home preferring to risk the money in the markets rather than pay off the loan. Suspect I’m not alone here in that thinking. Of course these are minuscule amounts of “leverage” compared to what hedge funds or CEFs engage in.
Alan Greenspan famously said in the 90s that you can’t recognize a bubble until it has burst. He’s been laughed at for the remark. I get it. But he’s not a dumb person. I won’t list them, but several “authorities” believe there is a market bubble (and they have been scorned in recent years). Bill Fleckenstein is one. Fleck cites passive inflows into retirement savings plans along with index investing. Don’t laugh too loud. He’s certainly been right for several years on gold which has more than doubled over only 2 or 3 years. And highly respected James Stack has his investors at 57% invested and 43% in cash or T-bills. That’s very conservative for him.
Of course, you can cite even more “authorities” who insist there is no bubble. Honestly, I’m not making the case either way. But the question is one worth considering. In a real market crash it’s very hard to “log-in” and sell your plummeting investments and virtually impossible to speak to your friendly fund rep. It gets very crazy. We had a small sneak-preview in late March.
I’ve looked up the P/E (one measure of relative value) on M* for some funds of interest. They all seem tame to me - not signifying a bubble. I have no idea how M* calculates these.
PRWCX: 21.91
DODBX: 13.65
LCORX: 14.08
PRFDX: 14.73
OAKBX: 13.04
Link to Meb Faber May 2025 interview with Whitney Baker

Thanks @bee
Getting some folks to save 15%, 10% or 5% monthly is difficult. I’ve tried with someone I know well. ISTM - Either you “see the light” and do it or you don’t. What “clicks” in one brain but doesn’t in another is a mystery. Bernstein should address the part of the brain that makes us think today will last forever, we will never grow old and the things we buy today will cost the same into perpetuity.
I do think that if you begin investing when you’re very young ignorance may be bliss. We paid a 403-B plan “advisor” 4% front load for buying a global growth fund (thru payroll deduction) in the 70s. But in return we went about our daily lives and work and paid no attention to how the investment was performing. Had we, likely myself and others would have pulled out of equities and gone to cash or safer alternatives at some point along the road.

Here’s an improved link to the transcript
Audio Link
Thank you @Mark. I hope above audio link works for those wanting to listen. I did a very quick read.
A Barry Ritholtz podcast with guest Bill Bernstein. - Bernstein’s credentials:” Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist “
It’s a casual rambling look at stock market risks over many years and how various investors deal with the risk. Bernstein is interested in the part of the brain that instinctively tells us to flee when the going really gets bad. Very hard instinct for most to repress. They discuss different portfolios that are easier to stick to than 100% equities. One is a portfolio designed to endure “the worst 98% of all markets”. They debate whether an all-stock approach is best, but both seem to doubt most individuals could stick to it in prologued bear markets - even if they were 30+ years away from retirement.
Sounds like at any given time you have 5 chances out of 6 that stocks will go up. But how to deal with the 1 in 6 probability they will tank? Bonds enter into the discussion. Jim Grant and Charlie Munger are a couple big names they weave into the discussion (along with William Shakespeare). There are some references to Trump’s tariffs and the risk to markets they pose as well as his family’s general financial acumen - but not the dominant theme.

Looks like I'm having a computer malfunction.

The board’s software is really difficult to work with this evening!