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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    Brokered CD rates may be up because many banks find it easier and cheaper to raise funds via brokered CDs (although the FDIC is watching) than through the new Fed BTFP facility and the old Fed Discount Window - those seem to have stabilized (see below from Twitter LINK).
    Many banks also offer unusual 11-mo, or 13-mo CDs as those one-time deals may not show up on industry wide 12-mo, 18-mo, 24-mo offering data.
    image
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    Lots of CDs at Schwab are now paying 5%. I suspect some of this may be due to the reducing fear of bank closures. I am expecting rates to go a bit higher before the end of April.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    @MSF. thanks for your thoughts. The AEI is not on my reading list. My take on denialism is simply that here and on other boards the very possibility of default is hardly discussed, not that it wouldn’t be horrible. I guess as Martha Reeves would say” nowhere to run to baby, no where to hide.” And that was in 1965.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    The only solution I see is if 5 or so Republicans who were elected from blue districts cross over to vote with Dems to raise the ceiling… There has been some quiet discussion of this happening
    Discussion may have been quiet, but a proposal that would suspend the debt ceiling until the end of the year and includes additional work was announced yesterday by the Problem Solvers Caucus.
    https://problemsolverscaucus.house.gov/media/press-releases/problem-solvers-caucus-endorses-bipartisan-debt-ceiling-framework
    As I understand how this group (evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans) functions, all members commit "to vote for anything that’s endorsed by 75 percent of their caucus". That currently includes 31 House Republicans, well above the 5 or so needed.
    That's likely why the press release states that their proposal "has the support of more than 75% of Problem Solvers Caucus members".
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    Default denialism as generally used is the idea that a default wouldn't be harmful. It was discussed to death in 2011 and 2013, e.g.
    American Enterprise Institute - The Foolish Idea of Default Denialism - "A craze is sweeping the nation, the idea that failing to raise the debt limit would not be an abomination." (2013). Also cited by Barry Ritzholtz.
    The lack of responses to your question "where to hide?" is not necessarily due to people viewing a default as a highly improbable hypothetical (even hypotheticals can be useful to consider). Rather you may be getting few responses because IMHO there are no good answers.
    As sma3 expressed, the potential consequences are so extreme that they would either be (if possible) reversed immediately or your question about where to keep investments would become the least of your worries.
    @sven - your links lead right back to your post (message 60984 in this thread). While it is true that the stock market fell following the S&P downgrade in 2011, the Treasury bond market rallied.
    NPR - Developing: In Wake Of S&P Downgrade, U.S. Stocks Tumble (Aug 8, 2011)
    Update at 12:57 p.m. ET. Treasury Bonds Rally:
    The Wall Street Journal reports that despite the S&P downgrade, Treasury bonds are still selling briskly and the 10-year yield has fallen o the lowest level since October:
    The price move underlines the dilemma confronting investors varying from the Chinese central bank to pension funds—there are few alternative safe-haven assets out there that can match the depth and liquidity of the Treasury market, with over $9.3 trillion in debt outstanding.
    As observed in the AEI piece cited above, the bond market fell as actual default neared. But not as a result of any ratings agency actions.
  • The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund reopening to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/869351/000183988223010046/small-497_042023.htm
    497 1 small-497_042023.htm SUPPLEMENT DATED APRIL 20, 2023
    BROWN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT MUTUAL FUNDS
    The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund
    BCSIX - Investor Shares
    BCSSX - Institutional Shares
    Supplement dated April 20, 2023 to The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund’s Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information all dated August 1, 2022
    This Supplement is to give notice that effective May 1, 2023, The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund will be re-opened to new investors. Accordingly, the section of the Prospectuses and Summary Prospectuses titled “Special Note Regarding The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund” is hereby removed from the Prospectuses and the Summary Prospectuses of the Fund. Shares of The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund may be purchased as described in the Fund’s current Prospectuses, Summary Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information.
    For additional information concerning how to purchase Shares of The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund, please call the Fund toll-free at 1.877.892.4BCM.
    Brown Capital Management Mutual Funds
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    The only solution I see is if 5 or so Republicans who were elected from blue districts cross over to vote with Dems to raise the ceiling… There has been some quiet discussion of this happening. Those folks won’t get re-elected if there is a default so it’s the most likely scenario
  • Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund to be liquidated
    VASFX up 0.5% Total in 8 years
    I looked at this several times as a alternative/ macro hedge. Never seemed to figure itself out.
    similar story to Market Neutral. If you are a hot gunslinging cowgirl or cowboy and really good at this stuff, who wants to have to tell your date you work at Vanguard!
  • What Beat the S&P 500 Over the Past Three Decades? Doing Nothing
    For my kids 529 funds, I rebalance them every 3 years to reduce stock allocation. A year or two before tuition bills are due they were moved to money market funds. Rules on 529 funds are highly restrictive; used to be ONE change per year and now is TWICE.
    Our other accounts are more actively managed, especially in the last decade.
  • Are fund prices currently messed up on various trackers?
    This started last evening when 1 of my 2 tracking apps sent out a message from the administrator that they were unable to obtain day-end prices from Yahoo, but that we could go into settings and change our price source to Google. I did that with a couple holdings but didn’t resolve issue. Both of my main tracking apps and also some free online services are still showing varying prices and performance for identical funds this morning.
    Anybody else encounter issues with yesterday’s quotes? PRPFX is the one I’ve worked on. One tracker has it $47.98, a 5 cent gain. The other says $48.09, a 16 cent gain. MSN Money (Bing) shows currently $47.93, with no reference to the last daily move. If just that 1 fund, I wouldn’t mind. But several others are affected.
    Added later - CNBC is at 47.93 (PRPFX) which agrees with MSN Money, but neither tracking app. M* also says 47.93 and down 0.33%. And Google now has $47.93. Looks like both of my tracking apps are screwed up.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/19/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/19/23
    For the week ending on 4/19/23, neutral remained the top sentiment (37.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (27.2%; below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (35.1%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -7.9% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (60+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar up. An unusually high 1m-3m T-Bill spread points to some liquidity issue developing. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1016/thread
  • Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund to be liquidated
    There was a related filing earlier on 3/20/23 on multi-asset VPGDX merger into moderate-allocation (fund of index funds) VSMGX that also outlined these steps: Liquidation of VG Alternative Strategies on/around 4/19/23, distribution of any related CGs, and then the completion of VPGDX + VSMGX merger by 5/19/23.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/736054/000168386323002318/f24738d1.htm
  • Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund to be liquidated
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313850/000168386323003487/f25414d1.htm
    497 1 f25414d1.htm VANGUARD ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FUND LIQUIDATION

    Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund
    Supplement Dated April 19, 2023, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated February 27, 2023
    Important Changes to Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund (the Fund)

    On February 14, 2023, the board of trustees of the Fund approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund. Effective as of the close of business on April 19, 2023, the liquidation is complete.
    In connection with the liquidation, shareholders may receive proceeds that are taxable. Any liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders should generally be treated as received in exchange for their shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss, depending on their basis in the shares. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors about any tax liability resulting from the receipt of liquidation proceeds.

    © 2023 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.PS 1298B 042023
    Vanguard Trustees' Equity Fund
    Supplement Dated April 19, 2023, to the Statement of Additional Information Dated February 27, 2023
    Important Changes to Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund (the Fund)
    On February 14, 2023, the board of trustees of the Fund approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund. Effective as of the close of business on April 19, 2023, the liquidation is complete.
    In connection with the liquidation, shareholders may receive proceeds that are taxable. Any liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders should generally be treated as received in exchange for their shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss, depending on their basis in the shares. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors about any tax liability resulting from the receipt of liquidation proceeds.
    Any references to the Fund in this Statement of Additional Information are hereby deleted.
    © 2023 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    SAI 046C 042023
    Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.
  • What Beat the S&P 500 Over the Past Three Decades? Doing Nothing
    I saw that article. Worth noting is that the method of reinvesting divs was different from what funds do. He reinvesting divs into the stocks generating those divs (computing total returns for each holding), while a fund or index (I presume) reinvests divs regardless of their source by prorating across all holdings.
    For buy and hold (and for beating the S&P 500 over the past three decades), see LEXCX.
  • Polen DDJ Opportunistic High Yield Fund is going to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1558107/000139834423007449/fp0083272-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0083272-1_497.htm
    ALPS SERIES TRUST
    Polen DDJ Opportunistic High Yield Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated April 19, 2023 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated January 27, 2023, as supplemented
    On February 16, 2023, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of ALPS Series Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Polen Capital Credit, LLC, the investment adviser to the Fund, approved the proposed reorganization of the Fund into a correspondingly named series of FundVantage Trust (the “New Fund”), subject to the approval of the shareholders of the existing Fund (the “Reorganization”).
    The Board also approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”) that provides that the existing Fund will assign all of its assets to the New Fund, in exchange solely for (1) the number of the New Fund shares equivalent in value to shares of the existing Fund outstanding immediately prior to the closing date of the Reorganization, and (2) the New Fund’s assumption of all of the existing Fund’s liabilities, followed by a distribution of those shares to such existing Fund’s shareholders so that the existing Fund’s shareholders receive shares of the New Fund equivalent in value to the shares of the existing Fund held by such shareholder on the closing date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is intended to qualify as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes.
    The Trust will hold a shareholder meeting on July 5, 2023, as may be adjourned, at which shareholders of the existing Fund as of April 11, 2023 will be asked to consider and vote on the Plan. If shareholders of the Fund approve the Reorganization, the Reorganization is expected to take effect on or around July 24, 2023.
    Shareholders of the existing Fund will receive a combined prospectus/proxy statement with additional information about the shareholders meeting, the Reorganization, and the New Fund. Please read these materials carefully, as they will contain a more detailed description of the Reorganization.
    Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information.
  • Technology Issue Delays More Than 2200 Southwest Flights Tuesday
    Oh boy, we flew on Southwest 737 last summer. They switched from the long time stable DC-10 to this new plane.
    Hi @Sven - The DC-10 is a wide-body type of aircraft, probably closer to the early 747s in size than the 737. It’s very unlikely SW ever used it. Suspect you meant to refer to different generations of the 737, which has grown greatly in size and capabilities over its 50 decades in service.
    Some snippets from Wikipedia:
    “Since its inception, Southwest Airlines has almost exclusively operated Boeing 737 aircraft (except for a brief period when it leased and flew some Boeing 727-200 aircraft). Southwest is the world's largest operator of the Boeing 737.”
    “In November 2020, the FAA formally ended the 737 MAX grounding, and Southwest began the process of returning its 34 737 MAX aircraft to service and retraining all of its pilots. On March 11, 2021, Southwest resumed 737 MAX operation, becoming the fourth US airline to do so.”
    “In October 2020, Southwest announced that it was considering the Airbus A220 as an alternative to the MAX 7 to replace its 737-700s, with deliveries from 2025. However, in March 2021 Southwest announced an order for 100 MAX 7 jets with deliveries from 2022 and said that negotiations with Airbus were never initiated.”
    -
    Historically, the 737 line has been a very reliable aircraft and fit in well with Southwest’s point-to-point short-haul service model, which demanded high frequency takeoffs and landings and fast turn-around times, plus the ability to operate out of smaller airfields with shorter runways. Of course, the lastest 737 version, the MAX has created much havoc for SW.
  • Precious metals are breaking out
    SGOL and GLDM have lower ER (0.17 and 0.10) than IAU or GLD
    Precious metals ETFs have 28% capital gains tax rate as "Collectible".
    If you are interested PHYS is Canadian and qualifies as a PFIC (Passive Foreign Investment Corporation" and capital gains are taxed at usual capital gains rates ( ie 15 to 20%)
    https://www.sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-bullion-trusts/gold-and-silver/tax-information/
    However the forms ( 8621) required are complex and not supported by Turbo Tax so you have to file on paper. As I had a small refund coming I am not terribly worried about processing time.
    I think I figured it out but it took a while. I have the time as I am retired and like intellectual challenges ( even with the IRS).
    You should do your own calculations if the time and extra expense if you pay someone to do your taxes is worth saving 13% on your capital gains. Probably depends on size of your position.
    I am thinking if I have a gain by the end of the year the size of my position doesn't make it worthwhile and I will probably sell it.
  • Americans have a net worth problem, and it’s not positive
    Is this new to this young generation as this survey suggests? No. I don't believe it is generational at all. As Lewis suggests, it's where you stand on the economic ladder.
    And it's not new. A look at the number of todays seniors where social security is their sole income is not much different than this "survey's" critique genX or genZ or any other subset generation they want to pick. It's social status, not generational.
    Social Security is the sole source of income for about one in five (20 percent) people aged 65 and older. Certain subgroups are particularly reliant on Social Security. Of those age 65 and older, Social Security is the sole source of income for 40 percent of Hispanics, 33 percent of African Americans, 26 percent of Asian and Pacific Islanders, 18 percent of whites, and 20 percent of unmarried women.
    per https://www.nasi.org/learn/social-security/the-role-of-benefits-in-income-and-poverty-2/#:~:text=Social%20Security%20is%20the%20sole,people%20aged%2065%20and%20older.