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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Recently, you're making some $ in your IG bond holdings.....
    Ya'll holding IG bond funds/etf's or bonds within your other mixed allocation funds have made some decent gains in the past two weeks; you know, lower yields = higher prices.
    Treasury yields since April 5. Will the downward trend continue? I don't have that answer, only a chart.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    @msf said, ”Regarding Fidelity cash management - it will shortly be adding SPAXX (current SEC yield is 4.97%) as a core account option to its CMA account. Currently you're limited to a bank sweep paying 2.69% APR (2.72% APY)”. Elsewhere, @msf provided a link to Fido’s announcement. Effective date appears to be today, June 15.
    Anybody know if the existing paper checks for the cash management account will need to be reissued? Or will the same ones continue work even after we change the CMA default investment to SPAXX?
    FWIW - I write about 5 a year. Typically reserved for very large expenditures.
  • WSJ on pensions and PE
    Gifted WSJ article, should be open for all....
    Pensions Piled Into Private Equity. Now They Can’t Get Out.
    Retirement funds seek cash while money languishes in zombie investments
    https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/pensions-piled-into-private-equity-now-they-cant-get-out-d3ca796d?st=im6wgn61zuvku1o&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
    ... apart from portability, this is was the major reason why I never went into the state's pension system when joining the university. I don't trust government/political investment committees -- and besides, if I'm going to make or lose money, I want to be the one responsible for doing so, and that includes either avoiding questionable investments or being able to get out quickly when I want to.
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    We have been retired 12 years with the anniversary date in June. We use what I refer to as 5-yr, Model Retirement Portfolios (MRP). We are thusly two years into our 3rd, 5-yr Model. Each has been significantly different in composition.
    The FED started raising interest rates in June 2022 as we were creating our current 5-yr MRP for 06/2022-06/2027. We projected at that time that before long, CP CD interest rates would be over our 4% threshold for FI investments.
    So we did two major structural changes starting around that time,
    (1) split our total portfolio into two distinct portfolios and
    (2) jettisoned ALL dedicated bond funds while significantly reducing bond holdings.
    So currently we have a Market Portfolio (MP) and a 5-yr, CP CD Ladder Portfolio. Total port is 98 IRA/2 Txbl. We haven't paid any FIT/SIT since 2012 and don't plan to do so for about 5 more years. The two ports are similar in size, with the latter port designated as our LTC self-funding. It currently has an APY just over 5%.
    The MP is about as basic and straight forward as they come:
    12 OEFs with 10 Core and 2 Explore OEFs, and occasional trading of Blue Chip, individual stocks like NVDA and GOOGL.
    The MP is:
    Stocks/Bonds/Cash: 88/12/Nil
    Domestic/Foreign: 90/10
    Technology Allocation: 36
    MAG 7 Allocation: 29
    LC/MC/SC: 74/20/6
    V/B/G: 16/34/50
    The 12 OEFs are:
    3 Domestic Stock Index
    1 Domestic Sector
    2 Domestic LCG
    1 Domestic LC Value
    1 Domestic SCG
    1 Global LCG
    1 Foreign LCG
    2 Moderate Allocation (which provide our ONLY bond allocation)
    2024 YTD TR of the MP is, well, um, never mind. That was not asked for by the OP and if given may very well be deemed bragging by my detractors.
  • MRFOX
    M* shows MRFOX has zero turnover (8/31/2023) ... Not sure what the current MRFOX turnover is. I was hoping with heavy inflows they would be able to buy new or more promising investments.
    Four of the fund's 19 holdings (see below) were new positions as of the turnover reporting date. Turnover is the lesser of percentage bought (in dollars, not positions) and percentage sold. Apparently the fund didn't sell shares of any holdings in the year ending 8/31/23 but added new holdings (likely adding to existing holdings as well).
    https://www.morningstar.com/investing-definitions/turnover-ratio
    But when I look at holdings at M*, M* says of the 18 holdings 7 are three star (means fairly valued) and rest are two star or one star (means overvalued). No 4 or 5 star holdings.
    Those are star ratings today of equities that the fund held four months ago. How promising were those stocks when that last portfolio snapshot was taken? Let alone how promising they were last August when the fund added four stocks.
    In the six months between Aug 2023 and Feb 2024 the fund liquidated one position. A naive calculation would suggest a turnover ratio of 5.3% (1 stock out of 19 sold). The actual dollar weighted turnover (including any sales of shares in the other 18 companies) came to 7% (not annualized). That seems more typical of the fund, which had turnover ratios of 24%, 14%, and 14% for FYs 2021, 2020, and 2019.
    Semiannual report, Feb 29, 2024
    Annual report, Aug 31, 2023
  • MRFOX
    @Baseball_Fan,
    Concentrated funds are OK as long as the managers are not averse to portfolio turnover. M* shows MRFOX has zero turnover (8/31/2023) and AKREX at 2% turnover. Not sure what the current MRFOX turnover is. I was hoping with heavy inflows they also would be able to buy new or more promising investments. But when I look at holdings at M*, as of Feb 29, of the 18 holdings 7 are three star (means fairly valued) and rest are two star or one star (means overvalued). No 4 or 5 star holdings (nothing in its holdings was undervalued). M* also says Portfolio P/E was 20, the same as for SPHQ as of that date (I estimated working backwards).
    Based on https://marshfieldfunds.com/
    As of the end of Q1, the fund held 20% in cash. The fund probably received another 10% cash in inflows since Q1. The fund strategy says, "The cash position will, on average, be in the range of 0-25% of the portfolio and will be an output of the Adviser’s buy and sell decisions, not a tactical maneuver."
    The fund commentary indicates the fund was not static and had turnover during the quarter.
    "The broad market today seems to be hosting a tent revival of sorts, with tech stocks as the talismanic centerpiece. But this too offers us an opportunity: instead of bemoaning the exorbitant price of stocks, we rejoice in our ability, as just noted, to sell those holdings that are hitting highs we believe are unlikely to be sustained or surpassed, at least in the medium term. Markets like this, whether held aloft by hope, euphoria, or (ir)rational exuberance, do tend to return to earth at some point. If opportunity is knocking today, we’ll answer the door with a smile. What we won’t do is join the pilgrimage to the top of the cliff. But by this point, we assume we’re preaching to the choir."
    During April, the fund lost 4% while SPY lost about 6% but I guess that was not good enough for the fund to put some of its cash to work. I am guessing the fund can return zero and underperform until the current bull market tapers out or there is a material correction in the market. I guess, be prepared to test your patience for another 5 months. The Q2 portfolio and commentary may not be available timely (until much after the market conditions may have changed) to be highly relevant. The difficulty with the fund is lack of contemporaneous information but they do not have to worry about such tasks when the inflows are unrelenting.
    "The Fund is premised on the belief that in order to outperform the market, an investment strategy needs to be different from the market in as many ways as possible that add value on a risk-adjusted basis." [Bold added] Do not say you were not forewarned!
    The problem with AKREX is that once Chuck left, the remaining team is probably just sitting on the existing portfolio clueless and watching heavy outflows. But I remember even when Chuck was around the fund had very low turnover, which is one of the reasons why I did not invest in AKREX even during its hay days.
    Morale of these funds is that I think investors (unlike you) that have inertia in getting out of underperforming investments, should not invest in specialist funds like this. Sticking with
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    FD,
    When you say "99+% in the market", what does this mean?
    Are you referring to equity markets, fixed-income markets, or other markets?
    Just curious...
    Thanks!

    Easy answer.
    First you tell me your breakdown of stocks, bonds, cash.
    Second, let me know what is your name on BB.
    That would put us on an equal base.
    Thanks
    I performed a "quick and dirty" portfolio check on 05/17/24.
    Not much has changed since then.
    My approximate asset allocations are listed below.
    US Stock - 40.55%
    Bonds & Cash - 33.02%
    Foreign Stock - 26.44%
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    Mutual funds - 5
    ETFs - 3
    CITs - 1, ~20% of portfolio
    Stocks - 1, ~3% of portfolio
    TIPS, ~4% of portfolio, purchased via Treasury auction
    Asset allocation as of 05/17/24:
    US Stocks - 40.55%
    Bonds & Cash - 33.02%
    Foreign Stocks - 26.44%
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    I have only two options, 99+% MM or 99+% in the market. Then I look when to sell.
    Since 11/2022, it keeps saying 99+% invested. Right now it's not even close to a SELL signal.

    I can’t believe you said that. It throws everything I’ve ever learned about investing out the window.
    You surely are clairvoyant.
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    FD,
    When you say "99+% in the market", what does this mean?
    Are you referring to equity markets, fixed-income markets, or other markets?
    Just curious...
    Thanks!
    Easy answer.
    First you tell me your breakdown of stocks, bonds, cash.
    Second, let me know what is your name on BB.
    That would put us on an equal base.
    Thanks
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I don't get the wrong answer because a live person knows the answer or not, and if they don't they ask or transfer me to someone who knows...and the time is much shorter too.
    I usually get to a rep within 1-2 minutes.
    And if you know how to work the phone system, chances you will get to an expert directly.
    Words I used before that got me to an expert were: trader, margin call, and mutual fund desk.
    So, you can drive directly for 10 minutes or use a longer way and get there in 20 minutes, and maybe get lost and it takes you 30 minutes. :-)
    The reps are extremely nice and want to help you.
  • PRWCX performance YTD
    Stockcharts link?
    An unadjusted stock price is lower - it drops every time a dividend is paid. Look at Yahoo's historical price table for AAPL. On Feb 9, the closing price went up 53¢ (from $188.32 to $188.85) due to market fluctuation. The adjusted value went up 77¢ (from $188.08 to $188.85); the additional 24¢ was due to the 24¢ dividend.
    It's easier to see the effect visually with a security that has a relatively steady value (little noise from market fluctuations) and fairly consistent periodic distributions. Something like a bond fund that declares and pays monthly.
    Something like RPHIX. The sawtooth pattern (rising price until div, then back down to base; rinse, repeat) is obvious in the price chart. The adjusted div value rises fairly smoothly and linearly.
    StockCharts graph of RPHIX
  • PRWCX performance YTD
    That addresses the dividends. However, are not capital gains separate?
    Regardless of what distributions are called, the effect is the same. Though for tax purposes distributions may be characterized as ordinary income divs, qualified income divs, or cap gains divs.
    Since you mentioned gaming the system, it's worth mentioning that the IRS has a rule to protect against gaming cap gains. Say that you buy a fund at $10 the day before it distributes a cap gain div of $1. The next day the fund is priced at $9, and you sell your shares.
    You think you've got a $1 long term gain (cap gain div) and a more valuable $1 short term loss. The IRS says that you must treat that loss (of a share you held for one day) as a long term loss. Unless you hold the share for at least six months, you can't play this game.
    https://fairmark.com/investment-taxation/capital-gain/selling-mutual-fund-shares/shares-held-six-months-or-less/
    The IRS has a different rule to protect against gaming qualified divs. Generally it is necessary for a security to be held for at least 61 days (starting 60 days before the ex-div date) for the div to be qualified. Funds must satisfy this rule in order to pass through divs as qualified.
    https://www.fidelity.com/tax-information/tax-topics/qualified-dividends
    If you don't hold likewise hold the fund shares for a 61 day period around the fund's ex-div date, then the fund divs cannot be treated as qualified. Even if the fund's 1099-DIV says that they are.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Schwab chat is a thing I use more than the phone: no stoopid 16-question identity routine. Usually, the chat reps are helpful. But sometimes, they have given me the WRONG information. They hire chat-workers who are learning as they go. Your questions and issues are the tools they use to learn by. Stinky poopy. The same, everywhere.
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    -5 single stocks. Two are much bigger than the others. 13% of total.
    -Junk bond ETF is still miniscule. Less than 1%.
    -5 mutual funds, 81% of total.
    -5% "cash" chosen by both myself and fund managers.
    53 stocks
    41 bonds, mostly still junk. My junk yields are quite productive:
    a) 7.09%
    b) 7.51%
    c) 7.17%
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    Myself … 9 Mutual Funds, 1 CEF, 1 ETF, 1 Stock
    The CEF represents 10%. The ETF and stock each count for 5% of portfolio.
    Here’s how the mutual funds break down …
    - Roth IRA 6
    - Traditional IRA 1
    - TOD (taxable account) 1
    - Money market funds (combined) 1
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    They took nearly 1.5 yrs to move client assets in stages. The final May 13 move involved only 10% of accounts. (After my account moved, the Schwab Rep put me on hold and accessed my TD account.)
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Schwab: I've been a customer for over 20 years. I can talk to a rep and explain exactly what I want and get an answer very quickly. Using a chat is much longer and annoying.
    Using email it's longer too, it depends on who I use. My local rep is excellent.
    1) One time they messed up my bond fund distributions. I called a rep and felt I didn't get the right answer. I asked to talk with the mutual fund back office. This time, I was sure I would get it cleared up and it was within 2 hours.
    2) Try to get Ins shares purchase waived, your chances are low.
    3) Try to get a match to other brokers on bringing money while it's not on the site.
    4) There are more but you got my drift.
    While Schwab and Fidelity are great and better than other brokers, other businesses' chat is even worse.
    I've been a T-Mobile customer for about 25 years. I've got so many real free phones, especially when my kids were in college and somehow lost/damaged their phone and T-Mobile sent it directly to them. I got several free boosters in dead spots, and now it is less of a problem. In the last several years, I call customer service after 10 PM because I get reps from the Philippines and they give me more stuff compared to the American reps.
    Penfed credit card gives you the same 2% cash back as Fidelity but Fidelity CC service is a lot worse and why I changed. Last year a rental company in the Netherlands charged a lot more than promised. They sent me the bill several days later. When I asked for a breakdown, I never got an answer. I filed a dispute with Penfed online, but it was denied within hours. I called in and found out none of the reasons matched my case, a new dispute had to be filed and followed by the rep. This time the dispute worked.
    The lessons are
    1) Chat is pretty good for solving trivial problems, but I hardly ever have them since you can find this stuff on the site. Try to solve real problems or get some freebies and chat is useless.
    2) Ask for the moon and you will be surprised, humor helps too.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (06/13/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:37 Topics
    02:04 The Cumulative vs. Current Inflation Debate
    15:30 Is Rising Unemployment Signaling Recession
    25:53 Powell is Watching the Week in Charts?
    34:41 The Best Start to a Presidential Election Year Ever
    37:08 Secular Trends Getting Stretched
    41:24 The Path to Prosperity
    Video