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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Found that other item indirectly. PSTL= takeover target? Seeking Alpha
    At first glance, that appears to be a book legged version of this article:
    Takeover Targets
  • High yield long term CDs
    Thanks. Understood. I thought it to be worth sharing that NORTHEAST BANK is offering up to 15 month CD at 5.3% yield. FDIC insured, of course. Branches are in Maine, but of course, a money transfer ought to be routine with account number and routing number. ($5k minimum.)
    https://www.northeastbank.com/
  • When the Market is Rising
    At a general, unsophisticated Rule, I ALWAYS plow $ into stocks near/at the end of three consecutive S&P DOWN months that cumulatively register a total drop near/in correction territory. That was the case a couple of days ago when I did my standard % dump in.
    And, FWIW, I try not to THINK of that Rule, or my overall investment strategy, as smart or dumb, because I KNOW the market will soon enough inform me I'm looking a lot like the other one!

    For the ST time being at least, with the major indexes all UP 5.1%-7.6% last week, the above-noted Rule has paid off much faster than usual, and provides support for the old adage that
    "Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while!
    Meanwhile, the jury is still out on the move being smart or dumb LT.
    So...my so-called general, unsophisticated Rule worked again, for the time being at least.
    Nov was a monster month in stocks, with us personally recouping ALL of our paper losses of the past THREE months and then some.
    If you don't have a BUY plan, you might want to consider this one of mine for the times described in my prior posts. It's kind of a no-brainer, but emotions can sometimes keep investors from BUYing markets while they're in Correction. Applying this Rule eliminates the emotion. FWIW, I can't recall a time that it didn't work to near perfection.
    FWIW, our BUYs at the end of October were mostly to the general market, but we did also add to one Sector fund:
    Fund, MTD TR (thru 11/29)
    VTSAX, UP 8.9%
    FXAIX, UP 8.7%
    FSELX, UP 16.7%
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Inflation has been the highest since the 80s at about 20% since 01/2020. Did employees get an equal increase to keep up with it? No
    "Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers ... quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted"
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm
    4th Quarter, 2019 - $935
    3rd Quarter, 2023 - $1,118
    Pct change (my calculation): 19.6%, or about 20%.
    Did employees get an equal increase to keep up with inflation? Yes.
    In case you consider my arithmetic suspect, the same BLS table gives figures in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars:
    4th Quarter, 2019 - $362
    3rd Quarter, 2023 - $365
    Did employees get higher wages in 2023, after inflation, than they did at the end of 2019? Yes, though the gain was barely discernable (about 1%) by these figures.
    People pay attention to their losses (high inflation items) more than their gains (items with prices rising less than their wages). They look at how much they lost to inflation since 1/1/20 (prices about 20% higher), rather than how much their portfolio made (VFIAX up 40% per M* chart). This is why metrics like Sortino ratio were invented - to measure what people focus on (losses).
    Do I feel bad every time I walk into a grocery store and see the prices? Yes, at least usually. However, iceberg lettuce is down from $6+ to $1.49. Overall, after looking at what I can afford, after reviewing my portfolio, do I feel good? Yup.
    I was able to afford a river cruise to Transylvania offered on Black Friday. Looking forward to seeing my ancestors' old stomping grounds. Might even run accross Vlad there :-)
    image
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/23
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/23
    There were noticeable shifts out from stocks into m-mkt funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $30.92 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $309.2 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #Funds #OEFs #ETFs #ICI
    OEFs: Stocks 50.42%, Hybrids 6.11%, Bonds 19.09%, M-Mkt 24.38%
    ETFs: Stocks 79.96%, Hybrids 0.43%, Bonds 19.61%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 57.24%, Hybrids 4.80%, Bonds 19.21%, M-Mkt 18.75%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1267/thread
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Good article.
    I can't wait until their outlook improves and they start shoveling the record $5.73 trillion
    in MM funds into the stock market...
    +1 And don’t forget the bond market. The current month long move in long duration bonds of all stripes and colors has been a lock out rally and one of the best in many a moon. Many muni funds have had but one down day the entire month and up 6% to 7%+. Tomorrow’s inflation report could be pivotal if this move is to continue. It has been said many times that the best money, be it stocks or bonds, is made long before the outlook improves and the coast is clear. Markets are anticipatory as well as counterintuitive.
    Edit: After today’s action make that 7% to 8%+ for munis. Other bond categories have seen double digit gains the past month.
  • High yield long term CDs
    So, an interesting development on the CDs I've posted about here recently.
    The previously referenced bank that had loaded 40K-60K of CP CDs in most of the respective maturities (2-yrs thru 5-yrs) accelerated the execution of the Settlement of my two BUYs.
    More importantly to others, they pulled all of the outstanding Quantities from the Fido platform.
    Not sure what happened there. I've spoken several times over the years to very experienced Fido FI guys and been told institutions sometimes goof on BUYs and their errored/re-thunk BUYs duly end up on the Secondary Issues lists.
    Perhaps this bank goofed on the loading side? I dunno. (But I think it did!) I do know I've never seen this happen before.
    Bottom Line: The trend continues DOWN on available CP CD rates and Quantities Available.
  • T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation & Income is live
    Schwab message for a test purchase for PRCFX,
    "1. The symbol you entered is not available to trade. If you have entered this symbol in error, please try again. If you are attempting to place an order for a fund in subscription, thank you, but the fund is not yet available. Once the Subscription Offering Period begins you will be able to enter your order. Please call 800-435-4000 if you need further assistance."
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    I can’t argue with the OP’s general conclusion that on average Americans are better off financially than they were prior to the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. ... Reminds one of the 6’ fella who drowned in a river that was on average 5 feet deep.
    Or the fellow who had one leg in a bucket of ice and the other in a bucket of boiling water. On average he was doing fine.
    However, the figures are median, not mean, so most people are better off in terms of wealth than pre-pandemic. Further, inflation-adjusted income in every quintile increased by 5%-6% except in the top quintile, where the lower half saw "just" a 9% increase, while the top half (top decile overall) saw income rise 15%.
    All from the Fed survey I cited above.
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Perhaps you're missing the first paragraph in the cited piece. That first paragraph has a bullet list of five metrics for financial state, all of which are positive.
    One of those is family wealth. Cash on hand is just one relatively small part of household wealth. Between 2019 and the end of 2022, median household wealth increased by 37%, adjusted for inflation. That's according to the cited piece, but why not go directly to the source, from the Federal Reserve?
    Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2019 to 2022 (Federal Reserve)
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/october-2023-changes-in-us-family-finances-from-2019-to-2022.htm
    Between 2019 and 2022, real median net worth surged 37 percent, and real mean net worth increased 23 percent.
    image
    That was published in October, 2023. Perhaps the Fortune piece author (who was an economist for the World Bank, not the Fed) wrote the piece days before the Fed published its triennial survey.
    Really though what matters are the dates the data cover, not when they are published let alone when they are reported in the mass media. The Fortune piece contained data only through June, not through Sept as implied in your last line.
    To anticipate the suggestion that maybe household net worth dropped by 27% between the end of 2022 and the middle of 2023, here's another Fed table. It shows that aggregate household net worth (unadjusted for inflation?) increased by 2.98% in Q1 and by an additional 5.49% in Q2 2023.
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20230908/html/recent_developments.htm
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Three reactions:
    1) The USA Today piece was interesting and I kept thinking "it all depends how and what you're invested in."
    2) Reporters can find people to quote in support of any given thesis for an article, be it on Wall Street or Main Street. 5 publications, 5 different views ... no wonder people get confused!
    3) When discussing individuals, I posit that the quantitative data from banks/brokerages based on 'retail' folks are a better representation of reality than wonky papers from the Fed or so-called 'economists.'
    Major takeaway: IMO it all makes for interesting reading, but financial 'news' is seldom actionable or representative of the broader reality -- and moreso, often fails to reflect that each person's goals, tolerances, positioning, and strategies are different ... but such articles usually cater to the mass market, so they often paint with a broad brush and their sourcing reflects that.
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    I can’t argue with the OP’s general conclusion that on average Americans are better off financially than they were prior to the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. You can measure that in a lot of ways: home values, employment numbers, wages, etc. Reminds one of the 6’ fella who drowned in a river that was on average 5 feet deep.
    One likely reason so many are better off is that the U.S.economy quickly rebounded from the pandemic induced trauma owing in no small part to substantial monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve and also fiscal stimulus in the form of “stimulus checks” mailed directly to millions of Americans (under both the Trump and Biden administrations). How this comparison (March ‘20 with Today) ) relates to the investment process and what we as a community of investors should concern ourselves with? That’s a different question.
    Lost in the discussion is the toll the 2022 stock market crash had on retirement savers. Unlike younger investors who could dollar average in when prices were low, seniors suffered outsized losses (see linked articles) in their retirement accounts. And there is some evidence now to suggest that more Americans are taking early hardship withdrawals from their 401K accounts - which I think @Baseball_Fan mentioned. (see linked articles).
    Average American's retirement balance falls 4% as more and more savers dip into their later life savings to make ends meet”
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/401k/article-12771113/401k-account-balance-falls-quarter.html
    How's your 401k doing after 2022? For retirement-age Americans, not so well
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/10/08/401k-balances-havent-recovered-from-2022-for-retirement-age-americans/70998934007/
    BofA Report Finds Average 401(k) Balances Up Nearly 10% in 2023; More Participants Taking Hardship Withdrawals
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bofa-report-finds-average-401k-balances-up-nearly-10-in-2023-more-participants-taking-hardship-withdrawals-301895607.html
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    The OP article states:
    The majority of Americans are better off financially now than they were before the pandemic. ... Not every American, but the majority. That’s true across demographic and income groups. It’s in the aggregate and individual-level data:
    That statement appears to be incorrect.
    On this topic, the devil appears to be in the details according to this Fortune article from 09/25/23:
    https://fortune.com/2023/09/25/pandemic-savings-richest-americans-federal-reserve-covid/
    Excerpt (BOLD added):
    Americans outside the wealthiest 20% of the country have run out of extra savings and now have less cash on hand than they did when the pandemic began, according to the latest Federal Reserve study of household finances.
    For the bottom 80% of households by income, bank deposits and other liquid assets were lower in June this year than they were in March 2020, after adjustment for inflation.

    The OP, 11/26/23 article author was a former Federal Reserve economist, so you'd think she'd have been aware of the referenced "latest Federal Reserve study of household finances" referenced in the Fortune article.
    Maybe I'm missing something in the OP article, or something dramatically changed between Sept (Fortune article) and Nov (OP article).
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    "record amount of charges on credit cards"... yeah, I've been reading that one for over 70 years now...
    "food still very expensive."... now that's for damned sure.
    Yup. Every week that I shop at Aldi's, another item that I purchase is up in price. This week it's Clancy's Tortilla Chips up from $1.99 to $2.09 and Friendly Farms Light yogurt up $0.15.
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Good article.
    A large number of people have negative views regarding their financial status yet many people
    still have "excess savings" from Covid stimulus checks, the economy is humming along,
    the unemployment rate is very low, and inflation is declining.
    Overall, folks just seem to be in a dour mood!
    I can't wait until their outlook improves and they start shoveling the record $5.73 trillion
    in MM funds into the stock market...
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (11/28/23)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 The Volatility Crash ($VIX)
    05:30 An Unexpected Combination of Events (Higher Rates/Stocks/Multiples)
    07:55 Exponential Growth ($NVDA)
    11:29 Holiday Spending Spree? (Consumer)
    16:28 Room to Spare (Housing)
    19:00 Trying Something New (Argentina Election - Milei)
    21:57 Housing Market Standstill Continues (Existing Home Sales)
    24:39 "A Very Short Recession" (Conference Board)
    27:34 The New King of Shipping (Amazon)
    28:47 Lower-Priced New Homes
    Video
    Blog
  • U.S. Money Market Funds Draw Largest Weekly Inflows In Seven Months (Story from Nov. 3)
    Which begs the question of who do you think is selling out and depositing their funds there? Bezos? Institutions? Small investors playing the FOMO game will be left w/o a chair when/if the music stops.
    Okay, I confess--its me! I have been increasing my MM funds with each CD that matures, or CD interest that is paid. I am not ready to put the money back into new CDs or start gambling again in the bond oef market, so my 5+% CDs will be the recipient of my available cash for awhile.
  • List of new issue ETF's
    I confess I haven’t looked at the list. Don’t deal well with complexity. :)
    Common sense advice from Henry David Thoreau:
    “An honest man has hardly need to count more than his ten fingers, or in extreme cases he may add his ten toes, and lump the rest. Simplicity, simplicity, simplicity. I say, let your affairs be as two or three, and not a hundred or a thousand; instead of a million count half a dozen, and keep your accounts on your thumb nail.”
    Walden (1854)
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    Hi @BaluBalu. This is the information I was looking for earlier regarding Part D, but covers Parts A and B. The page read is short and contains decent examples. Note: About 15 years ago I knew a retired lady who was a good accountant and managed the tax books for her daughter's small hardware store. The mother had always had good health, had started Medicare at age 65, including Part D for meds. A number of years passed and she didn't really have any benefit from Part D, as she didn't take any meds. The daughter was paying the monthly premiums as an expense from the store operations. Together they decided to STOP Part D. A few years later she needed to start taking prescriptions and decided the Part D plan would help with pricing. She was able to obtain a Part D again; but from having stopped and started again, she had a monetary penalty applied monthly that remained until her passing. Medicare and avoiding late enrollment penalties.