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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Volkswagen Shows €25,000 EV to Compete Where Tesla Has Left an Opening
    Toyota is sticking with hybrids first, the EVs second. Some say it's foolish, others say that it works for Toyota.
    Europeans are making good progress in the EVs; China too and it may be ahead in batteries. In the US, Tesla dominates.

    If the "Fit for 55" CO2 emission targets are formally adopted, new cars sold in the EU
    will need to reduce CO2 emissions by 55% (compared to 2021 levels) by 2030.
    The 2035 "Fit for 55" CO2 emission reduction target for new cars and vans is 100% (zero-emission).
    European auto manufacturers have a lot at stake...
    Link
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Well, since we don't know Crash's age and financial situation today as compared to the 2008 crash, we don't know if he can handle it. That was--hard to believe--15 years ago. It's a mistake to assume everyone should keep a stiff upper lip, keep calm and carry on during a difficult period. Circumstances and risk tolerances differ.
    This is why, I should add, financial planners exist. A good one can assess your financial situation and risk tolerance and tell you, look your goals are X and you have this much cushion for losses, so you can afford to wait out this volatile market. Or, they can say, you're way overexposed to stocks, given your age and situation. You should dial back your exposure. I presume most people here are self-directed, though.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    2008 09 credit housing crash, 2012 near double dip, 2015 -16 downturn/flat returns, 2000 crashes (decade 000 returns), 2020 Covid crashes also bad....
    Just hold on to the ride
    Drink lots wine/ weekend relaxation
    Keep buying when ItS strikingly low.
    You will be very happy 10 yrs from now if no WW3 and global warming won't kill us
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    Grandeur Peak's negligent behavior has been discussed many times before in this forum. Just repeatedly issuing mea culpa via fund manager commentary is not good enough. There is no change in Grandeur Peak's behavior. Fool me once shame on you and all that.
    I have not looked at First Republic's asset mix but Silicon Valley Bank? Silicon Valley Bank has the highest percentage of long term securities in its assets of all the banks in the country. Every individual investor (incl those in this forum) has been worried about Duration risk for the past 10 years but not Silicon Valley Bank. Hopefully, we get to see someday the Duration risk (or the lack of) in the non-equity portion of its CEO's personal portfolio. Interestingly, even Signature bank ranked 45 places higher than Silicon Valley Bank for Duration risk ( Signature Bank allegedly was playing games with the info it was providing NY regulators, leading to its demise). But back to Grandeur Peak. There is no alleged material fraud in Silicon Valley Bank for a forensic accountant to unearth - its demise is from sheer incompetence (or moral hazard at worst) in plain sight. Incompetent (negligent) fund manager picking incompetent portfolio company management, that is all we have here.
    Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts fund has 4.6% in First Republic and 2.3% in Silicon Valley Bank- as of Oct 31, per their website.
    I am sorry for coming out strong on this fund company - I will go to temple and seek forgiveness. Every time we make excuses for active fund managers' repeated failings we are failing innocent investors who visit this forum. I will go back to holding my silence and not posting here.
  • USO ETF Oil Prices Plummet 7%
    @sma3, I learned a lot about the so-called state insurance then!
    First, our money was tied up for 5-6 years, not months. Rates offered were below high m-mkt rates at the time. So, only opportunity lost, not nominal money.
    I called our state insurance department and said that I wanted my money back. They said, not so fast. States' insurance departments were coordinating the rescue and I will just have to be patient. BUT, if I wanted my money right away, I could take the 40% haircut offer on the table. Well, I "decided" to be patient.
    By now I have personal experiences with 1 bank failure and 2 insurance failures. Only the FDIC is prompt in setting quick up to the limit. No experience with the SIPC, but from the news, I think that they also take their time while brokerage positions held may be frozen.
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    @LewisBraham
    When I read your comment, even before your link, I immediately thought of Olstein and his funds. I stumbled across him in 2004 and thought his approach made a lot of sense. Unfortunately I sold it several years later as since then it has generally outperformed the SP500 and value indices, although with larger draw downs.
    Most people don't think about this type of analysis until after they needed it. But I can see why it is a hard pitch to make as he doesn't fit into a nice little box.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    “I believe social media has magnified the bank panic.”
    Both social and mainstream media have had a field day. “It sells in Peoria” (increases ratings).
    There are no lines in front of banks. But there’s a lot of itchy fingers on keyboards moving money around. That modern day ability changes the instantaneity & speed of old fashioned “bank runs.”
    I’d been using GNMA as a cash substitute. Sold all today. The 10 year was over 4% about 1 week ago. Dropped below 3.5% (around 3.4% at one point) this morning. Hard to say what’s coming down the pipe - but a guess is they’ll find a way to patch up the shaky banking system both here and in Europe - adding liquidity in one way or another - and that inflation will be well above 2% a year from now. Bonds might do well in that environment, but I wouldn’t bank on it. There’s probably good money to be made on some of the regional banks - but not for me.
    To be clear - I still own a high-yield muni and a global bond fund.
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    I feel many fund companies including this one would benefit from having a CPA specializing in forensic accounting and detecting problematic balance sheets on staff. But very few fund companies have such employees, choosing the CFA or MBA manager/analyst route, and those folks mostly are just looking for growth, not fraud or balance sheet problems. It's a different skillset: https://barrons.com/articles/why-your-fund-manager-isnt-looking-for-fraud-51599250358
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    From M*: "For Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts GGSYX, First Republic Bank was its largest holding as of Oct. 31, 2022, the most recently available portfolio data. The stock was 4.5% of the $210 million fund. The fund also held 1.9% In Silicon Valley Bank. Over the past five trading days the fund has fallen 9.5%." For a fund company describing its methodologies as "world class" they've made -- IMHO -- quite a few missteps over the recent past.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    @catch22, MOVE is not only a blend but it is normalized, so it doesn't have a direct meaning as VIX.
    But we can look at past values and ranges.
    All-time high 264.60 (GFC, 2008), all-time low 36.62 (Covid, 2020).
    Covid 2020 range 36.62-163.70.
    Now 198.71 (3/15/23 EOD). So, well above its high during the credit-freeze of early-2020.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    Bond volatility MOVE is now the highest since the GFC (2008-09). It is blend of Treasury volatilities of various maturities. Bond market has been whipsawed in the recent days by Powell's testimony last week (tough) and global banking crisis led by the US (not Europe) - 3 US bank failures in 4 days, needing a bank rescue plan (QE for banking? May be, QL - quantitative-lending?).
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^MOVE?p=^MOVE
  • American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund is to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322823001332/abatrcf-html6116_497.htm
    497 1 abatrcf-html6116_497.htm AMERICAN BEACON AHL TARGETRISK CORE FUND - 497
    American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund
    Supplement dated March 15, 2023
    to the
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2022
    The Board of Trustees of American Beacon Funds has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate the American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund (the “Fund”) on or about July 7, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), based on the recommendation of American Beacon Advisors, Inc., the Fund’s investment manager.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to new shareholders. In addition, in anticipation of and in preparation for the liquidation of the Fund, AHL Partners LLP, the sub-advisor to the Fund, may need to increase the portion of the Fund's assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for the Fund’s expenses and to meet redemption requests. The Fund may no longer be pursuing its investment objective during this transition. On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders. These shareholder distributions may be taxable events. Thereafter, the Fund will terminate.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about July 7, 2023. Liquidation proceeds will be delivered in accordance with the existing instructions for your account. No action is needed on your part.
    Please note that you may be eligible to exchange your shares of the Fund at net asset value per share at any time prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of the same share class of another American Beacon Fund under certain limited circumstances. You also may redeem your shares of the Fund at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. No sales charges, redemption fees or termination fees will be imposed in connection with such exchanges and redemptions. In general, exchanges and redemptions are taxable events for shareholders.
    In connection with its liquidation, the Fund may declare distributions of its net investment income and net capital gains in advance of its Liquidation Date, which may be taxable to shareholders. You should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    For more information, please contact us at 1-800-658-5811, Option 1. If you purchased shares of the Fund through your financial intermediary, please contact your broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for further details.
    ***********************************************************
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/15/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/15/23
    For the week ending on 3/15/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (48.4%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.2%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.4%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -29.2% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; cryptos; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (55+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold up sharply, dollar down. Crazy rate volatility as 3 banks failed in 4 days; SVB Bank & Signature Bank, #2 & #3 biggest bank failures in the US History. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=9&scrollTo=974
  • USO ETF Oil Prices Plummet 7%
    Buffett added so much OXY
    Probably sit on it forever 3 - 5 yrs wholile waiting for profits/ collecting quarterly Dividends
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    Great! Picked up 1 yr from Barclays Bank 5.40% yesterday. Will buy more this week as they are moving quickly.
  • How are Brokerage and Investment Accounts Protected? - NYT
    @Baseball_Fan
    Do you mean bars and coins in a safe deposit box or a tin can under the third rock from the left in the backyard?
    Or ETFs with physical Gold?
    We have about 3% of portfolio in Mutual funds gold miners and 0.5% in Sprout Physical Gold ETF
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    @Schwab, Wednesday, 1:50 pm PST:
    1yr CD: 5.4%
    1yr T-bill: 4.744%
    Note: Schwab Bank is among the offerings @5.4%, so this group may be under some pressure.
    Additional Note: @ Wednesday, 1:59 pm PST:
    Schwab & a couple of other 5.4% offerings no longer available- already subscribed? That was fast.
    Yet more: @ Wednesday, 2:09 pm PST: New listing- but not a new offering...
    HomeStreet Bank WA 4.75% CD 12/01/2023   Offered at discount: price: 99.455 / YTM: 5.543%.
    Seems like a solid vote of "no confidence" in HomeStreet Bank WA
    Yet more: @ Wednesday, 2:25 pm PST: HomeStreet Bank listing gone- somebody liked it.
  • USO ETF Oil Prices Plummet 7%
    BRK.b was down almost 3% much of the day. Finished down 2.44%. Yet, AAPL was up for the day. And BOA BAC only lost 1%. Looks like insurance companies got hit. One I watch was down 3.4%. I’d think the issue relates to interest rates in some manner - which were all over the place today. (And some of the weather phenomena contributed too).
    @LewisBraham said: “I wonder if any large institutions in particular were getting out, and if so, why?”
    One i watch, GHC , is 65% institutionally owned. It’s dropped like a rock, losing about 15% the past 10 trading days by my rough count. The why is hard to answer. I tend to attribute moves like that to market manipulation more than to fundamentals. Drive the price down and then buy back in later. Or maybe short sellers at work.