@Crash - Who you gonna believe? Your own eyes … or a report by the NHSTA? :)
The 2011 study by the National Highway Safety Transportation Authority was follow up to an earlier 2009 study which reached similar conclusions.
From page 19 of study:
”Overall, the odds ratios indicate that the odds of an HE vehicle being in either a pedestrian or bicycle crash are greater than the odds of an ICE vehicle being in a similar crash. The odds ratio for an HE versus an ICE vehicle involved in a pedestrian crash was 1.35, and the odds ratio for an HE versus an ICE vehicle involved in a bicycle crash was 1.57.”
(HE - Hybrid & Electric motor vehicles / ICE - Internal combustion vehicles)
The Study: https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811526

FUNDS. Go-anywhere moderately-aggressive-allocation (70-90% equity) EKBAX (ER 1.1%; no-load/NTF at Fidelity, Schwab) invests in stocks (45% tech, 29% industrials) and bonds (including HY, convertibles). Manager Margret PATEL was a HY specialist in her former career (at Wells Fargo, Pioneer, Third Avenue, Northstar). (By @lewisbraham at MFO)
EXTRA, FUNDS. THEMATIC funds have been disasters for investors (but they do sound interesting). Moreover, investors have poor timing with those – the M* investor-returns lag the fund TRs badly. Most big firms offer such niche/thematic ETFs – Fidelity, Blackrock/BLK (ICLN), Invesco/IVZ, etc; others also offer them, ARKK, DRIV, etc.
INCOME. Treasury FRNs (=< 2 year maturity) have rates that reset weekly to 3-month T-Bill auctions rate, so their effective duration is just 1 week. These can be bought at monthly auctions via brokerages or Treasury Direct, or in the secondary market. There are funds – USFR, TFLO, both with the ER of 15 bps. The interest is exempt from state/local taxes. Interest in FRNs grew after the Fed started to increase rates in mid-2022 (so, don’t look for long performance histories). (Finally, the FRNs are getting the media attention they deserve) (Be aware that now there are 3 types of floating-rate (FR) funds – Treasury FRNs, corporate FRs, junk FRs/BL (these have done well this year), so pay attention to which ones you are buying/holding.)
RETIREMENT. Some healthcare groups and doctors may not accept MEDICARE ADVANTAGE (MA; Part C), or that may change annually. Issues may be related to reimbursement rates and prior approvals. So, check whether your healthcare provider is in/out-network. The MA plans combine Parts A (hospitals), B (doctors), D (meds) with other supplementary coverages (eye, dental, gym). Almost 50% of Medicare-eligible people now use MA. Common enrollment periods are OEP Oct 15 – Dec 7, MA OEP Jan 1 – Mar 31; be sure to check the possible changes. (Also check plan’s formulary for any changes to your meds’ tiers)
LINK

Itching to buy some ASC.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4652518-ardmore-shipping-stock-q3-earnings-continue-to-add-my-value-portfolio?utm_source=stck.pro&utm_medium=referral
Ya, that source is suspect with many of us here. But since lately, somehow--- I've been able to get in and read the articles--- I've been paying attention. I always look at several sources of information before making a decision, or adding a prospect to my list.

Yeah. It’s a state by state issue. I like my local insurance agent with 5-day a week walk in or call service. Took great care of me after a big truck rear ended my rented car in Florida 10 years ago. (“No-fault” state). I never add the optional rental insurance. Was glad they stepped in and covered the full cost of the car which was totaled. If you wreck a rental, the company really inflates that “cost” thru various gimmicks.
I was in the office with her as we walked through the various deductibles & savings. Struck a happy medium. Helped in my case. The ‘18 hybrid has higher rates due in large measure to: (1) being more expensive to repair and (2) higher incidence of pedestrian related deaths / injuries due to how quiet they are at low speeds. Goodness. Electric cars must have the same problem.

Don't get me started on car insurance. I've been told that the majority of the cost is liability and that bumping up the collision deductible really doesn't save y'all that much monies. I then ask so okay, liability. I have four automobiles and only two drivers why can't the liability stay with the driver and not the car? This is another scam industry like visa and MasterCard loaning out monies at 20% plus and a realtor charging a percentage of the value of the home...or a financial advisor charging a percentage of assets. Is it really any different selling a $575k or $875k home.. no. Is it really that different investing $6million or $9million? No. I see these types of service industries getting clobbered going forward....

Summary
° Asset management is a cash-minting machine of an industry with infinite growth capabilities. But, there's a catch.
° BlackRock and Vanguard have destroyed the traditional mutual fund industry, and now there is only one place left with fat fees.
° Alternative asset management is a $20 trillion industry, growing at 35% and charging about 5X higher fees than BlackRock or Vanguard.
° Management teams consistently earn $60 to $600 million per year and are worth it, generating Buffett-like 20% returns for investors over the last decade.
° Blackstone Inc. is the king of alternative assets with $1 trillion in assets, and Apollo Global Management, Inc. is #3 and the king of private credit. One of these is currently a good buy and capable of 4X the short-term returns of the other.
A SeekingAlpha article HERE

I increased auto deductible to reduce premium at the last big increase.

I went from $1,000 to $2500 collision deductible to save when bought my last new car in 2018. The agent seemed to think that’s high.
@Devo said “Cumulative inflation”. That’s how I look at it too. Similar to how interest compounds year to year. Didn’t Einstein call compound interest the 8th wonder of the world?
I don’t want to pee rain on anybody’s parade. Views differ on this. @msf has documented very well the actual inflation rate based on the CPI index and has explained in past threads how that index is maintained / calculated. I wouldn’t argue with him.
I think we do tend to react more to increases on prices of items we buy more than we do to reduced prices on what we buy. From what I hear there’s a glut of chicken & pork right now. Prices are down from a year ago. On the other hand, what in #@*# has happened to the cost of a bag of coffee? As an occasional scotch drinker, I’ve noticed that prices have remained very stable in my state for the past 5+ years. A bottle of JWB can still be had here for under $40, where it’s been for most of the past decade. Maybe drink more scotch and less coffee?

@WABAC, I am not quite following your thinking regarding your sale of PRBLX. As relates to a 500 index fund, PRBLX has 34% in the M* LCG style box compared to 40% for a VFINX. PRBLX also has a slightly lower beta and SD. Are you also saying that a 500 index fund has become too growthy and volatile for you?

Hi @Mona. I have never owned the 500.
I wouldn't ban PRBLX from my taxable account, which I hope to leave to the kids. But right now it's just another fund over-weight in tech and financials with an 82 cent ER. And I think they have drifted away from:

The investment seeks to achieve both capital appreciation and current income. The fund's objective is to achieve both capital appreciation and current income

That's M*'s description. The dividend is now about half the 500 last time I checked. Maybe PBRLX has updated the prospectus.
A little later today I will be putting the proceeds from that sale into DGRW. It's about the lowest volatility fund (SD and Beta) I could find that stands a chance of outperforming PRWCX. It also stands up well to VDIGX. But I'll probably do one more screen with MFO premium.

I'm thinking real hard about the opaque knock on effects going forward. Not only from an investment standpoint but also from a societal view. Example. Starting to see reports that in several states over 20% of drivers do not have car insurance. Virginia allows you to pay $500 to drive without insurance. I question what the demographics are in this example. Our food, shelter costs so high or just doing without in this degradation of law enforcement?
Do those who carry auto insurance just pay more then? In areas like Oakland and Chicago with high crime rates, lax law enforcement and consequences do insurance companies stop offering policies like in Florida hurricane flood prone areas?

@yogibearbull, thanks for your work. Can I ask a couple questions so i can not assume I understand the data?
- the SWR gives the "initial" withdrawal for that period? Does it increase yearly for inflation? And finally, it is the withdrawal that would have taken the original balance to zero in 2023?
- SWRM, same questions but this withdrawal rate would take the balance to the original staring balance in 2023?
Very interesting that these withdrawals are mostly above the 4%. Contrary to opinions now that starting withdrawals should be 3.5% or lower.

As I rely on Portfolio Visualizer (PV) data, I have to follow its assumptions/conventions.
So, for SWR, the balance would be near zero at 2022 yearend AFTER the withdrawal, but that would feed monthly withdrawals through 2023.
Similar for SWRM, but that original amount would be inflation-adjusted. So, if the starting amount was $100,000 on 1/1/20, the ending amount at 2022 yearend AFTER the withdrawal would be near $182,883. One can do whatever with that amount.

@yogibearbull, thanks for your work. Can I ask a couple questions so i can not assume I understand the data?
- the SWR gives the "initial" withdrawal for that period? Does it increase yearly for inflation? And finally, it is the withdrawal that would have taken the original balance to zero in 2023?
- SWRM, same questions but this withdrawal rate would take the balance to the original staring balance in 2023?
Very interesting that these withdrawals are mostly above the 4%. Contrary to opinions now that starting withdrawals should be 3.5% or lower.

I think https://www.morningstar.com/funds/which-popular-funds-will-hit-investors-with-big-capital-gains-distributions-this-year?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshare&utm_source=link this article from M* is a bit premature published Oct 26 missing Vanguard and it's 6 funds over 5%, and anyone else published after that point.
Many thanks to TheShadow for putting this together and maintaining it every year. The best investment tools on the interwebz is knowledge like this.

@WABAC, I am not quite following your thinking regarding your sale of PRBLX. As relates to a 500 index fund, PRBLX has 34% in the M* LCG style box compared to 40% for a VFINX. PRBLX also has a slightly lower beta and SD. Are you also saying that a 500 index fund has become too growthy and volatile for you?

Follow up on this...

The stock market in 2023 has been tracking the Annual Seasonal Pattern (ASP) really closely, that is until a late October 2023 extra dip in stock prices that was not on the ASP's program. Since that dip, stock prices have been rallying hard to get back on track. But why did that dip happen?
Blame Californians. I wrote here back on July 21, 2023 about how the IRS had changed the tax filing and payment deadlines for most of California, because of flooding rains in January on previously burned areas that led to a lot of flooding. This led to disaster declarations, and a ruling by the IRS that taxpayers in 51 of California's 54 counties would get an extension to October 16, 2023 for filing their 2022 taxes. That extension also included a delay in having to pay any amounts owed for 2022, plus all quarterly estimated payments in 2023.
Because of this extension, smart Californians held onto their money and their tax returns until just before the deadline, presumably earning at least money market interest rates on it, but denying those tax dollars to Uncle Sam. California has 15% of the US population, but it also has more than its share of millionaires who have the wherewithal (and the accountants) to do this sort of tax planning.
Why this relates to the stock market is that we have learned from the Fed's QE and QT episodes that having money in the banks is helpful for boosting stock prices. But when a bunch of Californians all wrote their tax payment checks to the IRS in October, that created a sudden drain in the liquidity pool. The result was an extra dip that the Annual Seasonal Pattern did not forecast

californians_caused_late_oct

@hank, next time, give ebay a shot.
Easier to read. Better user-protection. I don't work for ebay. And I have no idea if I own any of their stock. Just been shopping with them for years trouble-free.

10-15 years ago that would have been heartening to hear. These days I try to stay as far away as I can from Amazon. But I digress. Somebody can start an OT thread if so inclined on the subject.
Thanks for the story. No problem. Most of us own Amazon through 1 fund or another.

And in "exchange", Hyundai will start using Amazon Alexa and Amazon AWS cloud. This looks like an extension of several online car buying services that have tie-ins with the local dealers. Of course, the scale would be huge.
It won't be direct from auto manufacturers to consumers, the model used by Tesla that required changes in some laws.
https://apnews.com/article/amazon-aws-hyundai-dealers-b1635fcd8e85eefe983fd565185a1c99

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/16/amazon-hyundai-cars-sale-alexa
Amazon plans to begin allowing Hyundai dealers to sell new vehicles on its platform, launching the e-commerce giant into the lucrative but highly competitive car market for the first time.
Amazon's sheer e-commerce heft means the company must instantly be taken seriously in the automotive retail space. Amazon announced its plans Thursday during the 2023 Los Angeles Auto Show, and said Hyundai would be the "first" brand to sell cars on the platform.
Customers will be able to search based on model, trim, color and other features, while also choosing payment and financing options. As part of their deal, Hyundai will begin incorporating Amazon's Alexa voice assistant into its vehicles beginning in 2025.

An update.
PV PWR is less commonly used, so I have stopped using it in more recent data.
PV SWR is the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawals).
New SWRM is the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment but at the end of the term, the leftover amount is inflation-adjusted original principal (dollar amount withdrawals).
Three examples below use the start dates of 01/2007 (Pre-GFC), 01/1987 (Year of 1987 Crash), 01/2000 (Year of Dot.com bubble burst). Idea is to select "bad" starts of withdrawal programs in recent history and see how various hybrid funds did; VFINX/SP500 is included for benchmark comparison. The end date is common 10/2023 (so, these data are not comparable to those in the examples in the June 2023 Post).
Example 1 - Period 01/2007 - 10/2023 that included GFC 2008-09 and pandemic 2020.
FUND SWR SWRM SWRM (corrected)
VWELX 8.63% 4.35% 4.37%
FBALX 8.17% 4.28% 4.09%
ABALX 8.27% 3.92% 3.99%
VFINX 8.05% 5.02% 4.82%
Example 2 - Period 01/1987 - 10/2023. Limited by 11/1986 inception for FBALX, although the (free) PV data goes back to 01/1985.
FUND SWR SWRM SWRM (corrected)
VWELX 7.89% 7.03% 7.035%
FBALX 7.43% 6.58% 6.545%
ABALX 7.63% 6.69% 6.70%
VFINX 8.82% 8.15% 8.106%
Example 3 - Period 01/2000 - 10/2023 captured the dot.com bubble burst and was possibly the worst start for withdrawal programs in the recent history.
FUND SWR SWRM SWRM (corrected)
VWELX 7.25% 4.80% 4.82%
FBALX 6.83% 4.58% 4.47%
ABALX 7.40% 4.83% 4.865%
VFINX 4.34% 2.52% 2.40%
If higher withdrawal rates than indicated are used, then the goals would be missed. But if lower withdrawal rates are used, then the balances at the end would be higher than the goals. The goal for the SWR is $0 balance; goal for the SWRM is the inflation-adjusted original principal.
It is interesting that all-stock SP500 did the best in Examples 1 and 2, but the worst in Example 3. That is the danger in using all-stock portfolios in withdrawal programs - they may work much of the time, but may bite occasionally.
Another point is that the "bad" times are more recent, and don't go back to 1920s or 1930s that included even worse times. And the withdrawal rates these funds sustained in the recent history are higher that the typical Bengen Rule of 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1249/thread
Edit/Add, 11/19/23. SWRM (corrected)
For data consistency, the PV runs should be to 2022 (recent full year), not 2023 (partial year in 11/2023). While SWR is unaffected, SWRM is affected and is corrected.

@BaluBalu GMO rebalances the portfolio monthly, so the 15% on M* seems low...it's more like ~50% from our view.

Appreciate your responses to my questions. Do you by any chance know the monthly rebalance dates / schedule? My interest is more not to sell right before rebalancing if I ever get an urge to sell. Obviously, I am hoping this to be a buy and hold but like to think about exit strategy before I need to exit.
Thanks Yogi re M* port