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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/1/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/1/23
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (50.3%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (24.3%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (25.4%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -26.0% (very low). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (88+ weeks, 2/24/22-now); Israel-Hamas (3+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar up. Fed kept ST rates same. Bond vigilantes are keeping LT rates high. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1239/thread
  • T. Rowe Price Hedged Equity Fund will be available November 8
    M* indicates this fund (PHEFX) has been around for four months and has gathered $2.3B AUM in the first three months. ER is 0.58% (JHQAX ER 0.83%).
    Why does the OP say the fund will be available on Nov 8?
  • High yield long term CDs
    Fido has 5 year "call protected" CDs for as high as 5.05% (issued by Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley). Those are worthy of consideration. I ignore all the callable CDs for reasons you mention.
  • High yield long term CDs
    I saw a 5.8% yield on a 10 year CD through my Fidelity brokerage account.
    The bank can call the rate and I haven’t checked the penalty for early withdrawal but I imagine it would be harsh.
    I assume the chances of the bank keeping the rate at 5.8 are slim to none seeing as how interest rates are bound to dip sooner than later.
    Which begs the question why would anyone invest in a CD under these conditions? And why would a bank even offer such a high rate knowing fully well it will most likely go down in the current state of the economy.
    I want to invest in a 5 or 10 year CD as I am nearing retirement and am in a preservation state of mind. I would take a 5% rate in a heartbeat.
  • Virtus liquidates several funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1005020/000093041323002416/c107242_497.htm
    497 1 c107242_497.htm
    Virtus Duff & Phelps International Real Estate Securities Fund (the “Fund”),
    a series of Virtus Opportunities Trust
    Supplement dated November 1, 2023, to the Summary Prospectuses and the Virtus Opportunities Trust Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) pertaining to the Fund,
    each dated January 27, 2023
    Important Notice to Investors
    On November 1, 2023, the Board of Trustees of Virtus Opportunities Trust voted to approve a Plan of Liquidation of the Virtus Duff & Phelps International Real Estate Securities Fund, pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about December 13, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”).
    Effective November 17, 2023, the Fund will be closed to new investors and additional investor deposits, except that purchases will continue to be accepted for defined contribution and defined benefit retirement plans, the Fund will continue to accept payroll contributions and other types of purchase transactions from both existing and new participants in such plans, and the Fund will allow reinvestment of distributions from existing shareholders. Investors should note that the Fund’s investments will be sold in anticipation of the Liquidation and may be sold in advance of November 17, 2023.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem or exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any other Virtus Mutual Fund. There will be no fee or sales charges associated with exchange or redemption requests.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will begin engaging in business and activities for the purposes of winding down the Fund’s business affairs and transitioning some or all of the Fund’s portfolio to cash and cash equivalents in preparation for the orderly liquidation and subsequent distribution of its assets on the Liquidation Date. During this transition period, the Fund will no longer pursue its investment objectives or be managed in a manner consistent with its investment strategies, as stated in the Prospectuses. This is likely to impact the Fund’s performance. The impending Liquidation of the Fund may result in large redemptions, which could adversely affect the Fund’s expense ratios. Those shareholders who remain invested in the Fund during part or all of this transition period may bear increased brokerage and other transaction expenses relating to the sale of portfolio investments prior to the Liquidation Date.
    On the Liquidation Date, any outstanding shares of the Fund will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business, except shares held in BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts, which will be exchanged for Class A shares of the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund, and any contingent deferred sales charges will be waived.
    Shareholders with BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts should consult the prospectus for the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund for information about that fund. The proceeds of any redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the Fund has paid or provided for all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these liquidation proceeds will occur as soon as practicable, and will be made to all Fund shareholders of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, the Fund must declare and distribute to shareholders any undistributed realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final liquidation distribution. To the extent that the Fund has experienced redemptions prior to the date the Fund distributes any realized capital gains and net investment income, the remaining shareholders at the time of the distribution(s) may bear increased tax liability due to receiving a higher proportion of the distribution(s).
    Although shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of the Liquidation in cash, proceeds distributed to shareholders may be paid in cash, cash equivalents, or portfolio investments equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund (the latter payment method, “in kind”). Shareholders who receive proceeds in kind should expect (i) that the in-kind distribution will be subject to market and other risks, such as liquidity risk, before sale, and (ii) to incur transaction costs, including brokerage costs, when converting the investments to cash.
    Because the exchange or redemption of your shares could be a taxable event, we suggest you consult with your tax advisor prior to the Fund’s liquidation.
    Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
    VOT 8020 DPIM Int. RE Liquidation Supplement (11/2023)
    ===================================================================
    Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Allocation Fund,
    Virtus Stone Harbor High Yield Bond Fund
    and Virtus Stone Harbor Strategic Income Fund (the “Funds”)
    each a series of Virtus Opportunities Trust
    Supplement dated November 1, 2023, to the Summary Prospectuses and the Virtus Opportunities Trust Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) pertaining to the Funds named above, each dated September 28, 2023
    Important Notice to Investors
    On November 1, 2023, the Board of Trustees of Virtus Opportunities Trust voted to approve a Plan of Liquidation of the Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Allocation Fund, Virtus Stone Harbor High Yield Bond Fund and Virtus Stone Harbor Strategic Income Fund, pursuant to which the Funds will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about December 13, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”).
    Effective November 17, 2023, the Funds will be closed to new investors and additional investor deposits, except that purchases will continue to be accepted for defined contribution and defined benefit retirement plans, the Funds will continue to accept payroll contributions and other types of purchase transactions from both existing and new participants in such plans, and the Funds will allow reinvestment of distributions from existing shareholders. Investors should note that the Funds’ investments will be sold in anticipation of the Liquidation and may be sold in advance of November 17, 2023.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem or exchange their shares of the Funds for shares of the same class of any other Virtus Mutual Fund. There will be no fee or sales charges associated with exchange or redemption requests.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, the Funds will begin engaging in business and activities for the purposes of winding down the Funds’ business affairs and transitioning some or all of the Funds’ portfolios to cash and cash equivalents in preparation for the orderly liquidation and subsequent distribution of their assets on the Liquidation Date. During this transition period, the Funds will no longer pursue their investment objectives or be managed in a manner consistent with their investment strategies, as stated in the Prospectuses. This is likely to impact the Funds’ performance. The impending Liquidation of the Funds may result in large redemptions, which could adversely affect the Funds’ expense ratios. Those shareholders who remain invested in the Funds during part or all of this transition period may bear increased brokerage and other transaction expenses relating to the sale of portfolio investments prior to the Liquidation Date.
    On the Liquidation Date, any outstanding shares of the Funds will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business, except shares held in BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts, which will be exchanged for shares of the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund, and any contingent deferred sales charges will be waived.
    Shareholders with BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts should consult the prospectus for the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund for information about that fund. The proceeds of any redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the Funds have paid or provided for all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these liquidation proceeds will occur as soon as practicable, and will be made to all Fund shareholders of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, the Funds must declare and distribute to shareholders any undistributed realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final liquidation distribution. To the extent that a Fund has experienced redemptions prior to the date the Fund distributes any realized capital gains and net investment income, the remaining shareholders at the time of the distribution(s) may bear increased tax liability due to receiving a higher proportion of the distribution(s).
    Although shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of the Liquidation in cash, proceeds distributed to shareholders may be paid in cash, cash equivalents, or portfolio investments equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Funds (the latter payment method, “in kind”). Shareholders who receive proceeds in kind should expect (i) that the in-kind distribution will be subject to market and other risks, such as liquidity risk, before sale, and (ii) to incur transaction costs, including brokerage costs, when converting the investments to cash.
    Because the exchange or redemption of your shares could be a taxable event, we suggest you consult with your tax advisor prior to the Funds’ liquidation.
    Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
    VOT 8470 SHIP EMDA/HYB/SI Liquidation Supplement (11/2023)
  • Pear Tree Axiom Emerging Markets World Equity Fund reorganization has been completed
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/722885/000110465923113420/tm2329639d1_497.htm
    497 1 tm2329639d1_497.htm 497
    PEAR TREE FUNDS
    PEAR TREE AXIOM EMERGING MARKETS WORLD EQUITY FUND
    Ordinary Shares: QFFOX Institutional Shares: QEMAX R6 Shares: QFFRX
    Supplement dated November 1, 2023
    to Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated August 1, 2023, as Supplemented
    On October 31, 2023, the reorganization of Pear Tree Axiom Emerging Markets World Equity Fund (the “Target Fund”) into Pear Tree Polaris International Opportunities Fund (the “Acquiring Fund”), as approved by the Trustees of Pear Tree Funds and the shareholders of the Target Fund, occurred, and all shareholders of the Target Fund have become shareholders of the Acquiring Fund. As of November 1, 2023, the Target Fund no longer offers or sells shares of beneficial interest, nor does it permit shareholders of other Pear Tree Funds to exchange their shares for shares of the Target Fund.
    * * *
    Please retain this Supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
  • Let's Breathe…
    I dunno gents...I think the folks in the market buying a home for $500-775K are making more than you might think at least that's the younger bucks I work with...so the home might cost them 2-2.5x annual salary....they have the mind set date the rate and marry the price, something like that....keep in mind most of the homes selling today for $1M+ are bought with cold hard kash...
  • Let's Breathe…
    The first house we bought back around 1960 (+/-) had a interest rate of 6%. Of course, the price of the house was a lot less than it would be today and we had a lot less income. The funny part now, is that I remember laying in bed at night worrying about how I was going to make house payments of $88.50 each month. My how times have changed.
  • T. Rowe Price Hedged Equity Fund will be available November 8
    Hedging is through futures & options. Direct shorting of stocks isn't mentioned. Price will initially absorb hedging costs above 5 bps.
  • FOMC Statement, 11/1/23
    YBB NOTES
    Rates were held - fed funds 5.25-5.50%, bank reserves rate 5.4%, discount rate 5.5%. 1 more hike is possible. Dot plots aren't policy, but just an indication of the current FOMC thinking.
    QT continues at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries, -$35 billion/mo for MBS; total QT -$95 billion/mo. No plans to tinker with it. Its impact on LT rates is small and indirect.
    Fed intent is for monetary policy to be restrictive so that it can slowdown from above-trend economic growth to below-trend growth. Moreover, the Fed policy works with some lag. The Fed is not devoting lot of time to theoretical matters such as the neutral rate, etc. The Fed is aware that there will be some pain from its policies. Housing has already been impacted by 8%+ mortgage rates. Small businesses are also suffering. But the inflation target remains at +2% average. The base assumption is still soft landing, not recession.
    Job market has been strong. But wage growth has moderated.
    LT rates have moved up due to a variety of factors, but the Fed only controls the ST rates directly. Higher LT rates do add some to monetary tightening.
    Banking conditions are being monitored for stresses (including for their HTM & AFS holdings losses). Sufficient liquidity will be provided and the current programs will be reviewed on expiration. Basel III capital proposals are still in the comments period. Caps on card swipe fees are also in the comments period.
    Risks include higher oil prices, labor strikes (UAW just settled), geopolitical - Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine, etc.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1238/thread
  • T. Rowe Price Hedged Equity Fund will be available November 8
    .58% ER?
    That seems low. Sorry, haven had time to read it all. But wondering if it will short stocks and whether the interest paid on short positions is included in that ER.
    For comparison: JHQAX ER .83% (which also seems low to me)
  • Vanguard International Dividend Growth Fund offering
    Subscription for mutual funds/OEFs by Vanguard is a bad idea. Money will just sit in a m-mkt fund & then be deployed on/after 10/14/23. Interested buyers can just buy it then.
    Instead, Vanguard should seed new funds with its own money ($50-100 million) for immediate launch & take that out later.
    Maybe VG feels they can get some extra float from the $$$ sitting in MMFs until it launches....?
  • Vanguard International Dividend Growth Fund offering
    Subscription for mutual funds/OEFs by Vanguard is a bad idea. Money will just sit in a m-mkt fund & then be deployed on/after 10/14/23. Interested buyers can just buy it then.
    Instead, Vanguard should seed new funds with its own money ($50-100 million) for immediate launch & take that out later.
  • Vanguard International Dividend Growth Fund offering
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1004655/000168386323007471/f36564d1.htm
    497 1 f36564d1.htm VANGUARD INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND GROWTH FUND SUBSCRIPTION PERIOD 497
    Vanguard International Dividend Growth Fund
    Supplement to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated November 1, 2023
    Subscription Period
    Vanguard International Dividend Growth Fund ("Fund") will hold a subscription period from November 1, 2023 through November 14, 2023. During this period, the Fund will invest in money market instruments or hold its assets in cash rather than seek to achieve its investment objective. This strategy should allow the Fund to accumulate sufficient assets to construct a complete portfolio and is expected to reduce initial trading costs.
    The Fund reserves the right to terminate or extend its subscription period prior to November 14, 2023.
    During the subscription period, you may invest in the Fund online (if you are registered for online access) or you may contact Vanguard by telephone or by mail to complete this transaction. Please see the Investing With Vanguard section of the prospectus for more details about requesting transactions.
    © 2023 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    PS V021A 112023
    Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    The comparative measure doesn't necessarily need to be an index @hank. Heck, you have said you use comparative benchmarks before. It's essential I think. If someone wants to trade stocks, measure results against a stock portfolio like BRK.B for instance. If you beat that over time you should be doing stock picking for a living. But couldn't an amateur stock picker be fooling themselves to think they are doing better picking stocks than say a professional manger? Say, Warren Buffet, again a comparison reference to BRK. Especially true for smaller less traded stocks I would think. And I believe if reducing volatility is a goal, buying individual stocks, especially small stocks, flies in the face of that goal in my opinion.
    I do think 1 stock at 10% of a portfolio is pretty significant. 5 stocks? Yeah I still do. 10 stocks? Less significant I suppose, only because of reduced volatility and the greater chance to get ETF-like results.
    I do agree it boils down to comfort level in the end.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/23
    SEC yields per M*
    IEF ( 7-10 year treasury) 4.7
    TLH ( 10-20) 5.09
    TLT (over 20) 5.0
    ITWY (only 20 year treasuries) 5.12
    Worth thinking about!
  • Let's Breathe…
    Yes, 8.5% and 8% respectively for us, back in the 70s. We also survived. The rates for the last ten years or so were so low that everyone now seems to think that that was "normal".
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    For those who do like to own individual stocks as a main investment tool to your overall portfolio, have you compared your stock selections to a broad based index fund like the S&)500 for large US stocks or a small stock ETF or a global ETF if using foreign stocks? It may be hard to compare and answer, but are you winning?
    I'm comfortable playing individual stocks as a hobby but nothing more. And for me, alas, it's generally an expensive hobby.
    @MikeM - Not sure a 10% weighting to individual stocks counts as “a main investment tool”. Maybe others can better answer. Last year it helped my overall return to hold some individual stocks. Beginner’s luck. And I traded a lot more last year which helped as there were some extreme movements in stocks. Gets tired fast though. This year the individual stocks have worked against me. As I noted earlier, the global food conglomerate has been hit by both the strong dollar and the hysteria over new weight reduction meds. There’s a fear people will eat less. Also, the new med seems to curb drinking. So, without checking, I’d guess brewers have been hit. A lot of other sectors have been hit as well. But - at just 10% of portfolio, individual stocks are not that significant.
    Could care less about the indexes. Try to stay as far as possible from the S&P. Herd mentality ISTM. The goal has never been about beating an index. Goal has always been to do somewhat better than cash over time with very low volatility. Of course, with cash, volatility is 0. And returns are predictable. Boils down to comfort level in the end.