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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    Howdy folks,
    You get what you vote for. Problem is that only the most fervent vote in the primaries and so many voting districts are gerrymandered into predetermined party outcomes. My township hasn't had a democrat run for local office in at least 3 elections and we're on four year terms. They voted 55/44 Trump in 2020. What this means is that everything is decided at the primary. We have a county on Lake Michigan - Ottawa that had a religious group get pissed over mask mandates and primaried the existing conservative republican county commissioners with some serious crazies. Now it will probably reverse at the next election, but, again, these are four year terms. They'll piss off Nessel and she'll have their ass.
    rono the 3rd term elected republican township trustee.
    peace,
    rono
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    Good point @Yogi. I’m just “betting” period!
    Suspect it will get bought out by a healthier institution at above $5.00 / Or might be saved by an infusion of cash from some government related entity. Far from my expertise. Not a very big gamble. Play money.
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    Currently $5.89 - down 27% today. Thinking of buying if falls under $5
    - Just bought 200 shares at $5.08 / Awaiting bailout.
  • Two of Alpha Intelligent - Large Cap ETFs will liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683471/000089418923002845/pfaalphaintelligentliquida.htm
    Alpha Intelligent - Large Cap Value ETF (AILV)
    Alpha Intelligent - Large Cap Growth ETF (AILG)
    (each a “Fund”, and together, the “Funds”)
    Each, a series of Listed Funds Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated April 25, 2023
    to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated February 28, 2022
    After careful consideration, and at the recommendation of Princeton Fund Advisors, LLC, the investment adviser to the Funds, the Board of Trustees of Listed Funds Trust approved the closing and subsequent liquidation of the Funds pursuant to the terms of a Plan of Liquidation. Accordingly, the Funds are expected to cease operations, liquidate their assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders of record on or about May 24, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shares of the Funds are listed on the NYSE Arca, Inc.
    Beginning on or about April 26, 2023 and continuing through the Liquidation Date, each Fund will liquidate its portfolio assets. As a result, during this period, each Fund will increase its cash holdings and deviate from its investment objective, investment strategies, and investment policies as stated in the Funds’ Prospectus and SAI.
    The Funds will no longer accept orders for new creation units after the close of business on the business day prior to the Liquidation Date, and trading in shares of the Funds will be halted prior to market open on the Liquidation Date. Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers, and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Funds’ shares during that time period. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions.
    If no action is taken by a Fund’s shareholder prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal to the net asset value of the shareholder’s Fund shares as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. This amount will include any accrued capital gains and dividends. Shareholders remaining in a Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of your shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    Shareholders can call 1-800-617-0004 for additional information.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Summary Prospectus,
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for reference.
  • John Templeton
    Keys to Investment Success - from John Templeton
    This audio book sounds like it was recorded in the 1980s. A one-on-one interview, very “rough around the edges” - perhaps conducted over the phone. I bought it for $3.99 and have listened to the first half so far. About an hour long. Templeton was my first fund manager when I was just starting to contribute to my workplace plan in the 70s. The fund was TEMWX. He was also founder and head of Templeton World Funds.
    - He’s big on Union Carbide
    - U.S. Steel has fallen in price, but is still too expensive for his taste
    - “Do-it-yourself” small investors don’t have a chance compared to a good mutual fund with its depth of research and analytical capabilities.
    - He thinks no-load funds should not be allowed. His reasoning is that without the assistance of “dedicated professionals” (salespersons) retail investors would make poor decisions in buying funds that don’t meet their individual needs. And also, having not paid a load would entice investors to jump from fund to fund and forsake the rewards of long term investing.
    - He thinks 5 years is the reasonable time frame to expect to profit from a good equity fund. He says it would be extremely rare not to make a profit in one of his firm’s investment portfolios over a 5 year period, based on historical averages.
    - His style sounds deep value. The best investments are those whose price has been trashed and which have long been out of favor / shunned “by everyone else.” However, he’s more than willing to grab off a quick profit and sell a recent acquisition if the price rises quickly.
    - He doesn’t like bonds / bond funds for long term investment, being quite adamant that equities will outperform over longer periods.
    - He and the investment committee move from investing style to investing style in an attempt to stay ahead of the crowd. Once everyone adapts a successful style of investing, it ceases to be effective. He refused the interviewer’s request to detail any one new style under consideration, saying that if he revealed it, it would be less effective as others moved to mimic it.
    - He prays frequently for guidance in making correct investment decisions and leads off staff meetings with prayer.
    - According to the intro, Sir John resides (resided) in the Bahamian Islands while running Templeton Funds.
    An interesting look back in time. Some of Templeton’s views may provoke ridicule or ire among today’s investors. For his time, Templeton was a giant in the mutual fund world. Templeton Funds were later acquired by Franklin. ISTM that’s also about when their earlier years stellar performance ceased.
    image
    Amazon Link
    ”Money magazine in 1999 called him "arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century". Templeton attributed much of his success to his ability to maintain an elevated mood, avoid anxiety and stay disciplined.” Wikipedia
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    For those who invest in mid- and small cap funds, take a look at the top 10 holdings, especially banks. Many regional banks are have hard time holding on their depositors since they pay too little for too long. Many money market funds pay 4.5%!
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    Oh. Oh.
    ”Shares of First Republic fell sharply and hit a record low Tuesday, as investors questioned how the bank would stabilize itself after losing about 40% of its deposits during the first quarter. First Republic's stock fell more than 40% on Tuesday, extending its year-to-date losses beyond 90%.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/first-republic-falls-more-than-40percent-to-record-low-after-reporting-massive-deposit-drop.html
  • Loomis Sayles Growth Fund is reopening to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/872649/000119312523114446/d494962d497.htm
    497 1 d494962d497.htm LOOMIS SAYLES FUNDS II
    Supplement dated April 25, 2023 to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus of the Loomis Sayles Growth Fund, dated February 1, 2023, as may be revised and supplemented from time to time.
    LOOMIS SAYLES GROWTH FUND
    The Board of Trustees of Loomis Sayles Funds II, upon the recommendation of Natixis Distribution, LLC and Loomis, Sayles & Company, Inc., has approved the re-opening of the Loomis Sayles Growth Fund to new investors. Effective April 25, 2023, the Loomis Sayles Growth Fund will begin accepting orders for the purchase of shares from new investors.
    Accordingly, all references to the Loomis Sayles Growth Fund being closed to new investors are hereby removed from the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus.
  • New to brokered CD's
    But going back to my first example . . . Let's say the coupon on that three month CD is paid at maturity only. So I have not lost out on two previous months of interest payments. It seems to me that the seller is so desperate to raise cash that he is willing to sell me his single coupon payment at a discount.
    I wrote: " If they work like secondary market bonds the buyer will pay the seller for 60+ days of accrued interest up front,"
    You're ignoring this. I don't see the TIAA CD you mentioned listed, so I'll use another one on Vanguard's site as an example. CUSIP 48714LCU1, KEARNY BK NEW JERSEY
    Issue Date: 4/17/23
    Maturity: 7/17/23 (91 days)
    Coupon: 4.8% (annual rate)
    Ask: $99.933
    Ask yield (excluding commission): 5.10%
    Interest calc: 365/365
    Settlement date (T+2): 4/27/23
    Interest at maturity: $1000 x 4.8% x 91/365 = $11.97
    Accrued interest (to settlement date): $11.97 x 10days/91days = $1.32
    Total cost (w/o commission) = $999.33 + $1.32 = $1,000.65
    Pct interest = (payout at maturity / total cost) - 1 = $1011.97/$1,000.65 - 1 = 1.131%
    Annualized rate (simple) = 1.131 x 365 days / 81 days = 5.10%
    Total cost (w/commission of $1) = $1,001.65
    Pct interest = $1011.97/$1001.65 - 1 = 1.031%
    Annualized rate = 1.031% x 465/81 = 4.643657% (per Fidelity's quote)
    Unless the CD price is quoted flat (unusual), one pays the seller the accrued interest at settlement.
    The quoted rate is before commission (aka markup). The commission will further reduce the net yield.
  • New to brokered CD's
    Your CD is fine with the settlement date. I stay with large banks and make sure they are not callable. VG would state that clearly. JP Morgan always offer callable CDs and I avoid them. Hard to find 2 yr + CDs that pay over 5%.
    Like you I am buying T bill in our taxable account. The sweet spot is 3 months.
    By the way, debt ceiling voting is on Wednesday and McCarthy does not have enough votes to pass.
    So far I have purchased some new-issue CD's from Vanguard. They are easy to understand. And they seem to pay fractionally more than the T Bills for the same time commitment. I did put a little money into a T Bill for a test run.
    But going back to my first example . . . Let's say the coupon on that three month CD is paid at maturity only. So I have not lost out on two previous months of interest payments. It seems to me that the seller is so desperate to raise cash that he is willing to sell me his single coupon payment at a discount.
    Moving on . . .
    Wells is selling one nine month CD with a 5% coupon, and 5% yield to maturity, for 100.00, which I understand to be what is called par. It pays interest monthly for all you fans of compounding.
    And then I do see CD's selling higher than par. It is a mystery to me why anyone would pay $101.254 for a 2.95% coupon maturing June 5, 2023. All of the other CD's above par are higher for longer.
    I never used to think about this stuff when rates were repressed and equities were robust.
  • T-Bills 1m-3m Spread
    T-Bills 1m-3m spreads are as crazy as they can be.
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202304
    4/17 112 (Auction Day for 3m, past)
    4/18 131
    4/19 121
    4/20 172
    4/21 178
    4/24 166 (Auction Day for 3m, past)
    5/1 ? (Auction Day for 3m, next)
    The fear of debt-ceiling chaos (in June/ July?) has gripped the institutional world:
    1. Institutions are reducing their mark-to market exposure by BUYING 1m and SELLING 3m. That is what is causing super-wide 1m-3m spreads.
    2. Strangely, several m-mkt funds have reduced their average maturities. While they don't short, they have become price-insensitive buyers of 1m - better of protect mark-to-market NAV than to go for slightly higher 7-day SEC yield.
    Just a few weeks ago, my PLAN was to start relying on ultra-short bond funds (FCNVX, ICSH, etc) instead of T-Bill rolls. But because of this 1m-3m craziness, I am doing just the opposite now. For the Auction yesterday, I SOLD some ultra-ST bond funds to BUY 3m T-Bills, and may do so also next week, and the week after - until this 1m-3m spread dissipates. The 3m T-Bills are just too attractive now to pass up. Mark-to-market issue isn't of concern to me (or to most retail investors) and I am betting that the DC cannot really be that stupid to let things slide.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond files for bankruptcy
    Was BB &B carrying a large debt load? Oftentimes these bankruptcies happen after some financial engineering in which money is taken out of the company and it's saddled with too much debt for its business to sustain.
    Yep. Like $4B, which was like 500m more than their company value, if I recall the story from over the weekend.
  • Brown Advisory Total Return Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418923002795/baf-497e.htm
    497 1 baf-497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
    Brown Advisory Total Return Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Institutional Shares (BAFTX)
    Investor Shares (BIATX
    Advisor Shares (Not available for sale)
    Supplement dated April 24, 2023
    to the Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information
    dated October 31, 2022
    1. Proposed Reorganization of the Fund
    The Board of Trustees of Brown Advisory Funds (the “Trust”) has recently approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”) relating to the Fund pursuant to which the Fund would be reorganized with and into the Brown Advisory Sustainable Bond Fund (the “Acquiring Fund”), which is another investment series of the Trust. The Plan sets forth the terms and conditions by which the Fund would transfer all of its assets to the Acquiring Fund in exchange for shares of the Acquiring Fund and would then subsequently distribute those Acquiring Fund shares to the Fund’s shareholders in complete liquidation of the Fund (the “Reorganization”).
    Shareholders of the Fund will receive an Information Statement/Prospectus containing information about the Acquiring Fund and about the terms and conditions of the Reorganization. In accordance with applicable regulatory provisions, shareholders of the Fund are not required to vote with respect to the Reorganization.
    The Reorganization is scheduled to be completed on or about June 23, 2023, or on such other date as the officers of the Trust may determine (the “Closing Date”). As of the close of business on the Closing Date, shareholders of the Fund will receive shares of the Acquiring Fund having an aggregate net asset value equal to the aggregate net asset value of the shareholders’ shares of the Fund. Shareholders of the Fund may continue to redeem their Fund shares, or exchange their shares for shares of any of the other Brown Advisory Funds offered by the Trust until the Closing Date.
    Effective as of the close of business on May 26, 2023, in anticipation of the Reorganization, shares of the Fund will no longer be sold to new investors. Existing shareholders of the Fund may continue to purchase Fund shares after this date and will continue to be eligible to exchange their shares of the Fund for other Brown Advisory Funds until on or about the Closing Date.
    No sales load or other transactional fees will be imposed in connection with the Reorganization. The expenses of the Reorganization will be borne entirely by Brown Advisory LLC, the investment adviser to the Funds.
    It is anticipated that the Reorganization will qualify as a tax-free transaction for Federal income tax purposes, and, as a result, it is anticipated that shareholders of the Fund will not recognize any gain or loss in connection with the carrying out of the Reorganization.
    In determining to vote in favor the Reorganization, the Board of Trustees of the Trust carefully considered the terms and conditions of the Reorganization and concluded that the proposed transaction was in the best interest of each of the Funds and their shareholders and that it would not result in a dilution of the shareholders of either Fund.
    If you have any questions, please call the Fund at 1-800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064
    Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi @Old_Joe et al I did a quick check and ASML was about $340/share at the end of October, 2022........same time frame that bonds began an upward move in pricing. A sell now is not a bad thing, eh? But, IMHO; remains at this point in time as a special company.
    --- Is ASML the only EUV company?
    ASML is the only company in the world that owns the technology and makes the machinery to make physical chips out of silicon wafers. Chipmakers like TSMC, NVIDIA and Intel won't be able to make the chips they do without ASML's EUV technology. Jan 23, 2023
    --- Is there any alternative to ASML?
    ASML competitors include MKS Instruments, Lam Research, Ultratech, Cadence Design Systems and ASM International. ASML ranks 1st in Diversity Score on Comparably vs its competitors.
    --- What is the competitive advantage of ASML?
    ASML has a competitive advantage. It makes advanced lithography equipment for etching tiny circuits onto semiconductors. It's the sole supplier of the next-generation Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) chip technology to the semiconductor industry.Mar 30, 2023
    --- Why does ASML have no competitors?
    The reason why competition and growth opportunities go hand in hand is because ASML is the owner of its own future. ASML faces competition in the industry however its technology is far more advanced than its competitors due to its EUV lithography technology. Jan 24, 2023
    --- Who are ASML top 5 customers?
    Image result
    Intel (US), Samsung Electronics (South Korea) and TSMC (Taiwan) are the world's largest semiconductor companies and are ASML's biggest customers. Intel and Samsung are integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), which design and manufacture their own chips.
    --- DRAM: Faster CPU's need faster DRAM for the large data functions.
    The 10 Largest DRAM Manufacturers in the World
    Samsung – USD 241.60 Billion.
    SK Hynix – USD 38.73 Billion. ...
    Micron Technology – USD 27.15 Billion. ...
    Kingston Technology – USD 12.8 Billion. ...
    Infineon Technologies – USD 9.6 Billion. ...
    Winbond – USD 3.5 Billion. ...
    Powerchip – USD 2.78 Billion. ...
    Nanya Technology – USD 2.42 Billion. ...
    --- Can't leave out of the list: Nvidia:
    What does Nvidia actually manufacture?
    Nvidia designs and sells GPUs for gaming, cryptocurrency mining, and professional applications, as well as chip systems for use in vehicles, robotics, and other tools.
    OTOH: semiconductor etf's list SMH etf, Van Eck has very nice long term results, as with FSELX, an early offering from Fido's select funds front running sector investing from the mid-80's,
    Quantum, 2019 discussion NOTE: The Nature Magazine link is no longer available without subscription. It was a very insightful write.
    I went to school in the early 80's learning about 1's and 0's and hexadecimal numbers and basic programming to 'boot' an early Computer Automation NAKED MINI/ALPHA 16 computer that weighted a bunch (75 lbs, with power supply), with a total memory of 32K, if both 16k boards were installed. I never got the 'feeling' for programming; not unlike art, which I enjoy, but I'm not a very good painting artist. A coworker got the 'feeling' programming and moved forward to work for Ross Perot's EDS electronics/programming division. I preferred the hands on of point A to point E of a computer driving electro-mechanical devices; and having to discover what section failed, and why.
    Lastly, for the good and bad of tech.; I still 'heart' this space in investing.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Vanguard in 2023
    VG advisor is their glorified VG PAS ROBO-advisor. Apparently, a call center person calls about the allocation recommendations that the computer spits out.
    That's a cheap shot.
    (I'm not sure if the pun is intended or not; funny what the subconscious generates.)
    PAS is a hybrid service (0.30%) that provides unlimited handholding to go along with their Digital Advisor (0.20% standalone) allocation recommendations.
    Think VG want their clients to move up to the next level of advisory at higher fees.
    Here's Vanguard's table of advisory services. All are 0.30% or less. Even at the $5M+ level.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/advice/compare-investment-advice
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    50.2% Alts - including 2 stocks (Neutral = 50%)
    20% Fixed Income (Neutral = 22%)
    23.5% Equity Gwth + Real Assets (Neutral = 22%)
    6.3% Various Hedges (Neutral = 6%)
    Feels like treading water.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Portfolio is at 57 stocks. 34 bonds 6 cash 3 other.
    Just added a tiny bit to SCHP. TIPs and BHB. (BHB recent report: EPS beat, but revenue missed. I'm still going to hang onto this one. It will be a long-term hold, unless the bottom falls out and the planet vaporizes by nuclear attack or else the sun becomes a supernova prematurely.)
  • New to brokered CD's
    I'm not experienced with CDs so please correct me if I am wrong -
    The % rates are yearly so you've got to divide by 4. And I assume that the original CD was $100.
    The coupon tells you what you get back. The original owner would get back 4.5%/4 or $101.125 at maturity.
    The new owner pays $99.96 and gets back the same as the original owner - $101.125.
    If you count the term as three months, the new rate is (101.125-99.96)*4/99.96*100 = 4.66%.
    If you count the term as one month, the new rate is (101.125-99.96)*12/99.96*100 = 15.67%, but you are only getting one month of interest.