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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Osterweis Total Return Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418923007621/osterweistotalreturn497eli.htm
    497 1 osterweistotalreturn497eli.htm 497
    OSTERWEIS TOTAL RETURN FUND – OSTRX
    Supplement dated October 16, 2023
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated June 30, 2023
    Osterweis Capital Management, LLC, the Adviser to the Osterweis Total Return Fund (the “Fund”), has recommended, and the Board of Trustees of Professionally Managed Portfolios has approved, a plan of liquidation and the termination of the Fund. This decision was made due to the Fund’s inability to obtain a level of assets necessary for it to be viable.
    Effective with the close of business on October 16, the Fund will no longer accept purchases of new shares. The Fund will be closed to new purchases, whether from existing or new investors.
    The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur after the close of business on December 15, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). Prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will engage in business and activities for the purposes of winding down the Fund’s business affairs and reducing the Fund’s portfolio (to the extent practicable) to cash in preparation for the orderly liquidation and subsequent distribution of its assets on the Liquidation Date. During this transition period, the Fund will no longer be pursuing its investment objective or be managed consistent with its investment strategies as stated in the Prospectus. This is likely to impact Fund performance.
    Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. The proceeds per share to be distributed to each remaining shareholder of record on the Liquidation Date will be the net asset value per share of the Fund less any required tax withholdings, after all expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or otherwise provided for. For U.S. federal income tax purposes, the receipt of liquidation proceeds will generally be treated as a taxable event and may result in a gain or loss. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders of the Fund may redeem or, subject to investment minimums and other applicable restrictions on exchanges, exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of another Osterweis fund (if available) pursuant to the procedures set forth under “SHAREHOLDER INFORMATION—Exchange Privilege” in the Prospectus.
    Any IRAs still invested in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will be redeemed and distributed using an age-based distribution code and may be subject to tax withholding. If you hold your shares in an IRA account directly with U.S. Bank, N.A., you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest your proceeds into another IRA account and maintain their tax-deferred status. Direct IRA shareholders wishing to avoid mandatory withholding taxes from being taken from their liquidation because they plan to roll over their proceeds to another IRA should submit a written redemption request to the Fund with enough time to be received prior to liquidation day. Any redemption request will be processed on the day received provided the request is in good order. Shareholders who own the Fund through a financial institution or brokerage should consult their financial advisor.
    You may be subject to federal, state, local or foreign taxes on exchanges or redemptions of or liquidating distributions made on Fund shares. You should consult your tax advisor for information regarding all tax consequences applicable to your investment in the Fund.
    Please contact the Fund at (866) 236-0050 or your financial advisor if you have questions or need assistance.
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
    From Osterweis:
    https://www.osterweis.com/files/Osterweis_Prospectus_2023.pdf
  • Dave Giroux TCAF ETF : Attracting assets?
    @msf, good PV analyses.
    For me, this started out as a broader mini-project in response to Vanguard's request to bring up several Admiral accounts for VG hybrid funds to min $50K - I posted on that. I have finally DUMPED all those hybrid funds, and some more VG hybrids, and REPLACED them with the ETFs at VG. I also wrote to VG about this that we weren't happy with its orders for our accounts that were within stone throws of Admiral min in the next rally, if/when it came. So, I told VG that it lost assets in VG funds, although that money remains in the VG Brokerage "for now".
    Using TCAF + PYLD + USFR is just an example of what I did to approximate PRWCX. I investigated the general idea of creating broad and flexible portfolios with 3 ETFs and did some backtesting with PV too. This can be found in the link below. One may see this as a variation of the Bogleheads concept of using 2-4 funds but I find their use of total markets too constraining.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/512/portfolio-allocation-3-etfs
  • Dave Giroux TCAF ETF : Attracting assets?
    @msf and other, I want to draw your attention to market correlation in PV.
    I added VFINX to your link (by adding a benchmark ticker).
    Add VFINX
    Your three portfolios have market correlation that range from 94% - 96%. This leads me to believe they are highly correlated to market (VFINX = 1.0%), yet their standard deviation as well as their Max DD appear to be about 2/3 less correlated to “the market”. Though VFINX deviated (deeper) during Max DD (15% vs 10%) they all took the same amount of time to heal from their losses. One can get this information by clicking on the “I” symbol next their respective MaxDD figures.
    Over the long run (your charts timeframe is 8 years), if we can accepted the higher SD (the ups as well as the downs of VFINX) it appears we achieve market returns.
    1991- 2023 Comparison:
    VFINX, PRWCX, QGIEX, CSIEX
    Most investors don’t enjoy losing money and appreciate losing less even though the timeframe for “shallow losses” and “deep losses” appears to be the same (at least in this chart).
    PRWCX’s goal of providing market returns on the up side while losing less on the downside is an investor’s challenge as well. Hope it succeeds!
  • Brokerage firm won't allow me to add to my TRAIX (Institutional class of PRWCX)
    @Jim0445,
    If it would help you when you speak with TRP,
    My employer 401(K) did not offer PRWCX but TRP allowed me to buy into PRWCX when I rolled over the 401(k) into a TRP IRA. Then I transferred PRWCX into non-TRP IRAs and added more.
  • Dave Giroux TCAF ETF : Attracting assets?
    My approximation for the closed PRWCX is a mix of TCAF + PYLD + USFR.
    PRWCX - often imitated, never duplicated.
    It varies its equity sleeve between 56% and 72% of its assets (per M* analysis report). That's going to be hard to mirror, let alone track in real time.
    Similarly, its bond holdings can vary greatly. M* shows it as "currently" (as of June 30th) having a barbell quality distribution: almost 30% AAA and over 40% single B. At first blush a 50/50-ish mix of multi-sector and AAA (treasury) funds seems like a reasonable fit. But virtually none of PYLD is below BB.
    FWIW, using PIMIX as a proxy for PYLD (despite its somewhat higher average credit rating), I've identified a couple of combos (equity fund, PIMIX, and USFR) that come close to tracking PRWCX retrospectively. (An interesting, if somewhat hypothetical, exercise).
    For the equity fund I used either QGIAX or CEYIX. I selected these in part because their style boxes are reasonably similar to PRWCX's - blend/growth leaning growth, large cap but not above category average.
    69/20/11 allocation for each equity/PIMIX/USFR combo. The Portfolio Visualizer comparison (annual rebalancing) is here:
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7YbNGfKVXrFqHWqj0iKqUi
    These combos have very close but slightly lower std dev than PRWCX (10.41% vs. 10.47 for PRWCX), very close but slightly lower Sharpe ratios (0.81 and 0.82 vs. PRWCX's 0.83). and somewhat close but lower annualized returns (9.55% and 9.43% vs. PRWCX's 9.78%).
    PYLD begs the question: why? A respected management team for sure. But its track record is shorter than four months, during which time it underperformed PIMIX. I could see jumping in if there were no open alternative (e.g. buying TCAF since one cannot get into PRWCX), but that's not the case at Pimco.
    I don't expect it to flounder, so buying in early doesn't seem high risk. Still, it's somewhat of a blank slate, especially at Pimco where funds are rather inscrutable.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (10/15/23)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 How Long Will Inflation Remain Elevated? (Latest)
    05:36 Bond Market Doing the Fed's Job (Fed Policy)
    11:43 Boomer Spending Boom
    13:53 Banks Still Under Pressure
    17:19 The Bill Is Coming Due (National Debt)
    21:58 Cry for Argentina
    26:12 The Path to Prosperity
    Video
    Blog
  • Record Outflows from TIPS ETFs
    A real yield of ~2.39% for 5-yr TIPS presents a good opportunity
    for those seeking protection from "unexpected" inflation.
    I would be a buyer if I hadn't purchased 5-yr TIPS earlier this year.
  • "It's Almost Time to Buy Small-Caps"
    This year is challenging for smaller cap funds when the broader index is dominated by the large tech stocks. Only one out three, FMIMX, did decently, the rest trailed considerably. So we pause until the market broaden out. Not indexing in the smaller caps for us as many small stocks are not profitable.

    The Russell 2000 index contains many stocks which are unprofitable.
    "The small cap market is fraught with landmines – weak companies that have been able to survive in this era of easy money; at the end of 2022 approximately 40% of companies in the Russell 2000 Index were unprofitable."
    https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/is-there-an-opportunity-in-small-caps/
    There is a profitability screen for S&P 600 index inclusion.
    "Financial Viability: Companies must have positive as-reported earnings over the most recent quarter, as well as over the most recent four quarters (summed together)."
    PDF
  • "It's Almost Time to Buy Small-Caps"
    From Jan. 2001 through Dec. 2011, the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 significantly outperformed the S&P 500*.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=qEr2lFXVGTW5gNPWAJxWs
    From Jan. 2012 through Dec. 2022, the S&P 500 outperformed the Russell 2000 and S&P 600
    by ~3% and ~1.5% respectively.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5g0Yk5t9TsoeVvUGo6maDY
    The small-cap indexes generated higher returns than the S&P 500 over the full period.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7HwyrroGKk5DAqntFXirk6
    Most of my small-cap exposure is via VTMSX which I've owned for over a decade.
    I'd welcome a small-cap rally!
    * IWM represents Russell 2000, IJR represents S&P 600, VFINX represents S&P 500
  • "It's Almost Time to Buy Small-Caps"
    Small? too volatile for me, now. The small stuff I own is because the fund managers decided to do it. 13% of total equities, and 9% of that is VALUE. OOPS, maybe some of my single-stock choices are in that mix. I own only 5.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (10/08/23)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 That Escalated Quickly (Bond Yields)
    04:36 More Mortgage Pain (Housing)
    06:36 Higher Rates, Less Building (Apartments)
    08:32 The Coming Default Cycle (Office Property Market)
    11:28 Longest Bond Bear Market Ever
    15:36 More Jobs (Payroll Report)
    19:57 Lower Prices Bring Out the Bears (Stocks)
    25:13 When Valuations Matter (Story of 3M)
    28:36 Going Nowhere Fast (General Motors)
    30:48 Expensive EVs (Rivian)
    33:57 Borrowing $2 Trillion in 4 Months (National Debt)
    37:58 More Affordable Air Conditioning
    Video
    Blog
  • Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks
    “ FPACX has nontrivially outperformed PRWCX the last few years,”
    Let’s be clear…. M* has PRWCX ahead by about 6% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021. Behind by about 1.7% in 2022 and 1.6% this year. I’m not sure that supports your statement, but it certainly supports the notion that the cash helped its return recently.
    Again, I have no issue with FPACX being a decent fund, but I can’t see a good reason to prefer it over the other two. Ymmv
  • CrossingBridge and Cohanzick 3Q23 Commentary - No Fat Pitches
    @Derf, another way to calculate TR is to use adjusted-prices between the 2 times.
    So, for simplicity, assuming that from 11/1/10 (adj-price 6.93) to 10/13/23 (adj-price 9.61) is almost 13 years, the TR = (9.61/6.93)^(1/13) = 1.02547 or +2.55%. So-so over 13 years.
    Using SPY instead, adjusted-prices were 92.81 on 11/1/10 and 431.50 on 10/13/23, so TR = (431.50/92.81)^(1/13) = 1.1255 or 12.55%. Of course, this is to show the method, not to compare stock fund with HY bond fund.
    Backward-ratio-adjustment applies to ALL prices prior to the dividend date. That is why it works.
  • TD Ameritrade's websites are no longer operational ?
    Yes. All my accounts were moved in Sept and Now I don't have any TDA accounts...However, some TDA website,which did not require LogIn...I can not access it...It just redirected to Schwab.
    ...Namely finding Any equivalent Mutual Funds to ETF or a Similar Fund NTF or Load type...under the research tab.
    Even clearing Web History did not help...
    research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/compare/compareResults.asp?tab=FeesMgmt&data=B64ENCeyJzeW1ib2xTaW5nbGUiOiJEQk1BWCIsInN5bWJvbE11bHRpcGxlIjoiREJNQVgsIFZUSSwgRkJBTFgiLCJjb21wYXJlZFRvIjoiRVRGIiwiY3VycmVudFBhZ2UiOiJjb21wYXJlcmVzdWx0cy5hc3AiLCJ0YWIiOiJGZWVzTWdtdCIsImZvcm1XYXNVc2VkIjpmYWxzZSwiY29tcGFyZVR5cGUiOiJzcGVjaWZpYyIsImFvRXhwYW5kIjpmYWxzZSwibWluaW11bUludmVzdG1lbnQiOiJBbnkiLCJzYWxlc0xvYWQiOnRydWUsInRyYW5zYWN0aW9uRmVlIjpmYWxzZSwiZXhwZW5zZSI6dHJ1ZSwib3BlbkNsb3NlZCI6dHJ1ZSwicmVsYXRpdmVWYWx1ZXMiOiJzZWxlY3RlZGZ1bmRzIn0=
  • From Barron's - Where to INVEST or SPEND $100K
    I have these ad-hoc weekend posts when Barron's has several fund stories. But it seems that after the Funds Quarterly last week, Barron’s ran out of fund stories.
    There are some interesting stories in the Supplement about what to do with a windfall of $100K - there have been similar threads on MFO. So, here they are:
    GUIDE TO WEALTH Supplement has features on:
    Where to INVEST $100K now with recommendations from Barron’s writers for less hyped AI play, Covid vaccines, EVs, retail, bond-ladders (ALB, BMWYY, BNTX, CMG, COST, ELF, ETN, F, IBM, MRNA, PFE, RIVN, TSLA, WMT; defined-maturity bond ETFs from BLK);
    Where to SPEND $100K – charitable donations (DAFs; also direct, QCDs from IRAs), 529s for education, “cash” (online savings, money-market funds/accounts, T-Bills), home improvement, wedding/honeymoon, cruise;
    Top picks by some professionals – ORCL (by NILES; less popular cloud play), VFC (by HARRINGTON; rebound story), COP (by NYGREN; inflation hedge), KKR (by ROBERTS; alternatives), INTC & INTU (AHLSTEN; rebound stories).
    These are followed by state-by-state TOP Advisor Directory; TOP RIA Firms; TOP Advisory Teams.
    (It's an ad Supplement after all. But Guide to Wealth Supplement is of much higher quality than most such Supplements.)
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/514/barron-october-16-2023-2
    Direct Access (subscription may be required) https://www.barrons.com/advisor/topics/guide-to-wealth
  • Towle Deep Value Fund: what a difference 10 days can make
    As the sharp dip in 2020 (pandemic) and subsequent strong rebound come and go from 3-yr windows, this behavior won't be that unusual. It is dramatic for TDVFX because it didn't do much post-pandemic. M* Performance page does show 10-yr chart, and annual as well as 3-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr performance.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/tdvfx/performance
  • Vanguard Bank Sweep & Bank of Baroda
    I received an email from Vanguard a few days ago touting Vanguard Cash Deposit.
    This doesn't appeal to me when 7-day yields for VMRXX and VMFXX are 5.29% and 5.28% respectively.
    I believe Vanguard would never allow these money market funds to "break the buck"
    therefore the lack of FDIC insurance is not a concern.
  • Towle Deep Value Fund: what a difference 10 days can make
    Towle is a deep value / small cap fund. It's about the purest deep value play around, which is attractive because the academic research says that the "value effect" is most apparently in really deep value just as the small cap effect is most visible in really small caps.
    Nice people doing hard stuff.
    They're currently a one-star fund in Morningstar's system. Charles's rating of them since inception (2011) is comparable: 1 (lowest 20% in the peer group based on risk adjusted returns). Which made their quarterly report pop, as they noted that their SMA composite for their strategy returned just over 19% annually for the past three years. Morningstar's three-year numbers, which by default at the last 36 months from today, are far lower. Curious, I checked.
    What a difference 10 days makes: the fund loses one-third of its trailing three-year returns when you shift from 9/30/23 as your end date to 10/13/2023. That's about 10 trading days. But the opposite effect is seen in the five year returns, which improve by 50%.
    Three year returns (per Morningstar)
    As of 9/30/23: 19.18%
    As of 10/13/23: 12.74% - a 33% decline
    Five year returns
    As of 9/30/23: 2.47%
    As of 10/13/23: 3.76% - a 50% rise
    Ten year returns
    As of 9/30/23: 6.43%
    As of 10/13/23: 5.86% - a 10% decline
    One reason that MFO traditionally pushed "full market cycles" as the metric rather than arbitrary windows (what is the significance of "three years"?) is that you need to find a way to avoid being misled by performance reports that might reflect one performance bubble rolling off just as a drawdown rolls on.
    Which is to say: look long and hard (looking at you, Ms. Woods) before concluding "those numbers are sweet! Here's my money!"
  • CrossingBridge and Cohanzick 3Q23 Commentary - No Fat Pitches
    Nov 01, 2010 9.98 10.01 9.95 9.95 7.11 RPHYX
    Can anyone explain why the adj. close was 7.11 at this point in time ?
    **Adjusted close price adjusted for splits and dividend and/or capital gain distributions.
    Info from Yahoo Finance .