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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard Personal Advisor Services
    Pretty weak article, and poorly written. Hard to figure out what it is saying anyone holds.
    Is it counting ETFs as equities? Asked because it separates out investments in mutual funds (17.57% advised, 20.10% DIY).
    Cash? 5.70% advised, 15.71% DIY after 2022Q1!. Maybe the DIY'ers had the right idea (whether by luck or not, can't tell from report).
    While the article does note that the study is based on Schwab's PCRA brokerage window in employer-sponsored retirement plans (401(k)s, etc.) it does not mention that employees who use brokerage windows tend to be more aggressive investors. Did the study control for that before drawing its general conclusions about all investors?
  • CD Rates Keep Rising
    I see both points on callable vs non-callable. If you are building ladders, predictability certainly matters. But to @DavidV 's point though, you could buy a 5 year or even a 10 year callable corporate bond from Schwab at ~6.3% and ride the high return until it is called. Just a thought. Not something I've done.
  • NHYDY. Inspector Clouseau would say.....
    Seems like we’ve covered this before. The 25% w/h tax is pretty typical in Europe on foreign investors. However, some of them have a special treaty agreement with the U.S. and Canada limiting the tax to only 15%. Apparently, Norway is not a signatory to that pact. There may be a way to claw back some of that with a claim to the IRS. I’ve heard it’s difficult. However, cap gains are not so widely taxed. So, by trading in and out of an ADR you might reap some tax free cap gains that help offset the w/h tax. I happen to own an ADR on a company based in Switzerland. They are members of the pact that limits the w/h tax to 15%. And, they have 0 cap gains tax. I wouldn’t mess with those that claim 25%. There’s a lot of angles to this. Should the dollar weaken, outsized gains would accrue from foreign holdings.
    PS - My understanding is that if you own a mutual fund having part or all of its assets in these countries, the tax paid by the fund is hidden away in “other expenses” so that most investors probably don’t realize they’re paying it. No free lunch.
  • Watch out for those oil/gas related equities: Rosebank approved.
    U.K. gov't just approved development. The Rosebank field is off the northwest coast of the Shetlands, way the hell up North.
    Equinor stock is way up. Ithaca is soaring. (20% stake. Equinor = 80%.)
    Because I own some, I note that Tenaris (TS) is up +0.91%, pre-Market here in the States. (Maker of oil/gas pipes, particularly for offshore production. HQ in Luxembourg.)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/worlds-fastest-growing-economy-guyana-could-grow-100percent-in-5-years.html
    OOPS. Wrong link. Here it is.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/uk-gives-approval-for-controversial-rosebank-oil-and-gas-field-development.html
  • NHYDY. Inspector Clouseau would say.....
    Is this the SA piece you're talking about ("Norway's WHT is 15%.")?
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4633977-we-expect-lower-earnings-from-aluminium-giant-norsk-hydro
    From the company's own website:
    The withholding tax of 25 percent may be lower pursuant to tax treaties between Norway and the country in which the shareholder is resident. The Treaty rate is generally 15 percent. [The treaty rate w/US is 15%.] The Treaty withholding tax rate will generally apply to dividends paid on shares held directly by U.S. holders that are residents of the United States within the meaning of the Treaty.
    https://www.hydro.com/en-US/investors/information-for-shareholders/taxation-guide/
    Perhaps you are ineligible for the lower rate because you hold the company indirectly via an ADR? I don't know. If you are eligible, it seems that you have to file some paperwork to get the 15% rate. Continuing from the company's website:
    all foreign shareholders must document their identity and tax status in order to receive a reduced (or zero) withholding tax. This is done by filing an application to the Central Office for Foreign Tax Affairs for getting a permission to resume or start using a reduced withholding tax rate. Please contact Norsk Hydro’s account operator at [email protected] for assistance.
    I imagine that you may be eligible for a dollar-for-dollar reduction in federal taxes (foreign tax credit) up to your tax rate. But this is not something I delve into too deeply.
    I ran across this page that does a pretty good job of going through the issues above. Coincidentally, it uses a German company (SAP SE) as an example.
    https://einvestingforbeginners.com/adr-dividend-tax/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    “Tongue in cheek” from me earlier. Like the kids saying “Are we there yet?”
    I’m optimistic for the simple reason that nothing was spared today. A bit unusual to see commodities, miners, utilities, energy, growth stocks, consumers staples, bonds etc. all dive in unison. Oh - JP Morgan put out a “buy” on DKNG today, now that the stock has doubled or tripled from where it began the year.
    FWIW - One of my trackers has 16 holdings (mostly funds) I follow - but don’t own. 15 were in the red today. None gained. TMSRX broke even - “outperforming” the 15 others. (BAMBX lost only a penny.)
    For the Giroux affectionados, TCAF fell 1.59% today to $24.76, putting it about a quarter below where it opened earlier in the year.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    It took the threat of a govt shutdown to get us off the recent highs? The 1 red flag for me has been the recent complacency in the equities market. That being said, I'd be shocked to see stocks make any major downward moves (i.e. -20% off highs = Bear).
    Buying these dips, cause why not. Hopefully better opps ahead. Need some solid volatility.
    Making ~5% in MMkt Funds is acceptable at some level. But lets face it - it's also boring.
  • NHYDY. Inspector Clouseau would say.....
    "...The mystery is solv-ed."
    I saw, upon receipt of the scheduled NHYDY dividend some time ago, that 25% of that dividend was "withheld at the source." (And there was also a "depositary service fee" I got dinged for, which was just $7.28.)
    ....Then just the other day, I bumped into a Seeking Alpha article re: NHYDY asserting that the Norwegian withholding tax was 15%. ... So, I sent a message, asking my broker (TRP) about it.
    Come to find out: NON-NORWEGIANS are subject to 25% withholding. (From the company's own website---so TRP informs me.) That fact sucks mountains of mud. But life is full of stinky surprises. "Life sucks, and then you die." What the hell, right? The stock has been falling along with the rest of the Market. Yet now that I finally have clarity about the withholding issue, I believe I will stick with it. Aluminum and green energy. And lately, I just read that the company has joined with the Norwegian Church Fund to create a solar power company.
    That might sound strange. But I understand, for example, that Germans pay taxes to support the churches, whether or not they belong or attend. Must be something similar.
    And that's all I have to say about that. ----Forrest Gump. :)
  • Government shutdown
    The government shutdown is inevitable and there is 5 days less. This is like a train wreck in slow motion.
    https://npr.org/2023/09/26/1201557143/government-shutdown-house-republicans
    US debts will face another round of possible downgrade from Moody? Will this impact the long bond yield and the stock market?
    https://reuters.com/markets/us/moodys-warns-us-government-shutdown-would-be-credit-negative-2023-09-25/
    What are your plans?
  • Tax-Loss/Gain Harvesting
    The bond market will close two hours early (2PM EST) on Dec 29th. Just in case you're looking to dump Treasuries as rates continue to rise. (That's a lighthearted statement, not a prediction.)
    Less often practiced, but potentially useful, is tax-gain harvesting. It can be advantageous to generate cap gains and ordinary income in different years. In that way, one can take advantage of lower cap gains rates (e.g. 0% bracket) without getting pushed out by the presence of ordinary income.
    Instead of recognizing some gains and some income (e.g. from Roth conversions) each year, one can recognize more gains (fill the 0% bracket) in year 1, and do more conversions in year 2 to compensate. Just watch for all the gotchas - pushing into the next ordinary income tax bracket, exceeding ACA subsidy limits, IRMAA, SS taxation brackets, etc.
    It's not unusual to find advice about aggregating tax deductions (property taxes, charitable contributions, etc.) into every other year. It's less common to see similar advice about harvesting cap gains this way. (I believe Kitces' discussion about the interplay between cap gains and ordinary income does have such a suggestion.)
    Hypothetical example (MFJ), using same rates/brackets for 2024 as 2023. By keeping all the cap gains in the first year and all the conversions (extra ordinary income) in the second year, nearly all the cap gains get taxed at 0%, vs. 15% in the second year. Even with the "penalty" for lumping ordinary income into year 2 (some is taxed at 22%) one may come out ahead.
    This is very income and bracket specific.
    			2023			2024
    Other ordinary income: $70,000 $70,000
    Roth conversion: $ 0 $60,000
    Less std deduction: ($27,700) ($27,700)
    Taxable ord income: $42,300 $102,300
    Cap gains: $50,000 $ 0
    Ordinary income tax: 10% x $22,000+ 10% x $22,000+
    12% x $20,300 12% x $67,450 +
    22% x (102300-89450)
    =$4,876 =$13,121
    Cap gains tax: 15% x
    ($92,300 - $89,250)
    =$457.50 =$ 0
    --------- ---------
    Total tax: $5,123.50 $13,121
    With evenly split income/conversions
    2023 2024
    Other ordinary income: $70,000 $70,000
    Roth conversion: $30,000 $30,000
    Less std deduction: ($27,700) ($27,700)
    Taxable ord income: $72,300 $72,300
    Cap gains: $25,000 $25,000
    Ordinary income tax: 10% x $22,000+ 10% x $22,000+
    12% x $50,300 12% x $50,300
    =$8,236 =$8,236
    Cap gains tax: 15% x 15% x
    ($97,300 - $89,250) ($97,300 - $89,250)
    =$1,207.50 =$1,207.50
    --------- ---------
    Total tax: $9,443.50 $9,443.50

  • How to see pre-2000s mutual fund documents?
    for many funds, the documents only go back to 2007 even if the fund is much older (example: Ariel Fund).

    That's not entirely correct. You may not be able to find them, but generally the SEC has fund docs going back to 1994 or 1995, including Ariel Fund docs. Back then it was the Ariel Growth Fund.
    Here's the folder with Ariel fund family filings. In any given folder, you'll want to open the NNNN-YY-NNNN-index.html file.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/798365
    The only 1994 files are the annual and semi-annual reports in machine-readable format.
    The 1995 prospectus for the Ariel (Growth) Fund and the Ariel Appreciation Fund (including the Oct 1, 1995 supplement reopening the Growth fund) is here:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/798365/0000950131-95-002729.txt
    There's also the 1995 prospectus for the Ariel Premier Bond Fund (including the Nov 6, 1995 supplement allowing investors to buy into institutional class shares when they buy in at the ground floor):
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/798365/0000950131-95-002376.txt
    What appears to be the earliest human-readable annual report (Sept 30, 1995) is here:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/798365/0000950131-95-003393.txt
    Happy rummaging.
    Thanks!!
  • 3M T-Bill Observations
    9/25/23 3m T-Bill Auction was at a discounted price of 98.652694.
    So, finally some changes after the 2nd decimal place. Looks like the short end of the yield-curve is anchored/stable and the long end is pivoting about the short end.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/R_20230925_1.pdf
  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    Have robos gotten their clients out of the cap weighted S&P 500 - or at least reduced exposure this year?
    Hopefully not early this year. YTD (through Sept 22, data from M*),
    VOO (S&P 500): 13.89% (23rd percentile LCblend)
    IVOO (S&P 400): 3.92% (48th percentile, MCblend)
    DFAS:                  2.91% (50th percentile; SCblend)
    Hindsight is 20/20. Nevertheless this illustrates why trading in and out of sectors based on short term expectations may not pay off. If your question is whether robo advisors make changes more frequently than annually, I believe the answer is yes, perhaps too frequently, depending on the company and the types of investments used. (I'm surmising based on limited information.)
    (I'm not seeing any recent moves in a Vanguard managed account that uses only index funds; it was already slightly overweighted toward mid/small cap.)
    It doesn't matter whether an account is robo or human advised. The advisors are largely backed by their institution's models. Within the constraints of preferences expressed by individual investors (e.g. Sven expressed a preference to avoid EM), the advisors follow those models.
    Take a manager like Will Danoff. Here are the top ten investments of FCNTX (as of July 31):
    Meta 11.8% (way overweight relative to S&P 500),
    BRK 9% (way overweight),
    MSFT 6.5% (similar to S&P 500),
    AMZN 5.8% (overweight),
    AAPL 4.8% (underweight),
    NVDA 4.12% (overweight),
    UNH 3.89% (overweight),
    GOOGL 2.63% (slight overweight),
    GOOG 2.25% (slight overweight),
    LLY 2.21% (overweight)
    These are all in the S&P 500 top 12. Of the S&P 500's top 10, only TSLA is not in FCNTX. #10 in the S&P 500, XOM, is #15 for FCNTX.
  • Funds & Retirement Stories from Barron's
    I did find a SEC filing back from April 28, 2006 (which is as far back as I can go).
    The SEC filing does list the Fidelity Utilities Growth Fund, minus the "Select."
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320351/000088019506000036/main.htm
    There was a name change back in April 2009 based on the filing below:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320351/000071889109000008/main.htm
    Here is a copy of that section:
    On January 16, 2009, Utilities Portfolio changed its name from Utilities Growth Portfolio to Utilities Portfolio
    Incidentally, Zacks still states the fund name is Fidelity Select Utilities Growth Portfolio:
    https://www.zacks.com/funds/mutual-fund/quote/FSUTX
  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    If I had a robo I’d be yanking its strings today, asking what the 10 year going over 4.5% means and whether there’s a particularly good investment to try and profit from this. I guess the worst it might do is to suggest, “Take safe shelter immediately!” - :)
  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    @Sven, age-based funds within 529s operationally work like TDFs for retirement; their glide-paths are to the college age of 18 (vs retirement date of the TDFs). One can mix age-based funds with traditional allocation funds within 529s to achieve a variety of custom glide-paths. But I don't know of a 529 that formally includes a robo-advisor fund within it.
    @hank, most performance comparisons of robo-advisors with other funds (TDFs, allocation/hybrid) are for moderate-allocation (around 60-40). There are also variations for MA - MA Aggressive, MA, MA Conservative.
    IMO, robo-advisors are nothing more than hyped-up allocation funds that are liked by the younger generation. If one is willing to spend a little time, one can achieve a similar effect with traditional allocation funds (static-allocations; Income, conservative-allocation, moderate-allocation, aggressive-allocation) or TDFs (glide-path allocation). A lot of PR has gone into promoting robo-advisors as something novel when it is just some old wine in new bottles.
  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    Simple question. Have robos gotten their clients out of the cap weighted S&P 500 - or at least reduced exposure this year? Hard to find market observers who think that’s currently reasonably valued.
    If I had a robo I’d expect quarterly updates. If they could help in making tactical mid-course corrections every quarter or two they’d earn their pay. Annual course corrections would be better than nothing. But if all they can do is recommend longer term multi-year allocation models suitable for age and situation, then there are many sources of information to assist an experienced investor is charting and staying the course.
  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    Robo investing does work given time and patience. For example, many state sponsored 529 plans employ low cost broadly diversified index funds. The state adds a smaller layer of fees as the administrator. Overall fees are still very good. Automatic shifting allocation from stocks to bonds (eventually money market fund) is available today. If started early enough, the parents have 18 years to invest for their child’s college education. We are very fortunate to use the 529 plan to put our kids through college.
  • Convertible Equity Linked Notes?
    Thanks @msf. Spot on. Although I didn’t look at the prospectus, the Franklin promotional work-up contains a multi color bar chart showing the allocations. And, yes, they combine the convertible bond & equity linked notes on a single line, but do reference both as you already stated. I missed it.
    https://www.franklintempleton.com/investments/options/exchange-traded-funds/products/36262/SINGLCLASS/franklin-income-focus-etf/INCM
    Apparently the new ETF is run by the same team that has run the 5-star Franklin Income Fund (FKIQX). Strategies look very similar to me. But I did note that FKIQX tanked badly in 2008 - in sympathy with what some lower tier junk bond funds did. Gives one pause. I’ll pass for now.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (09/24/23)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:37 Webinar Next Week (9/26 @ 1pm EST)
    01:06 Are Higher Rates Here to Stay (FOMC Meeting)
    08:52 Good Times, Bad Times (Bonds)
    17:02 Rising Rates: Good or Bad for Corporations?
    22:24 Another Debt Milestone (National Debt)
    26:29 A Minor Pullback (Equity Markets)
    28:49 Would Stock Picking Be Easy if You Knew the Future?
    31:34 Instacart IPO
    36:40 "Soft Landing"
    41:38 Slowdown in Homebuilding
    44:02 Commercial Real Estate Reset
    46:41 Real Estate Boom & Bust in China
    48:24 India's Incredible Progress
    Video
    Blog