Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Credit Default Swaps
    No directly responding to your question ... Quickly scanning Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank 5 yr CDS is around 205. The article below from Bloomberg on Friday also provides some insight:
    By Macarena Muñoz
    (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG was at the center of
    another selloff in financial shares heading into the weekend.
    The German bank tumbled 12% on Friday. Credit default-swaps
    on Deutsche Bank’s euro, senior debt surged to the highest since
    they were introduced in 2019. Other banks with high exposure to
    corporate lending also declined, with Commerzbank sliding 9% and
    France’s Societe Generale falling 7%.
    The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency
    rescue of Credit Suisse last weekend has rattled investors and
    raised questions about the broader stability of the financial
    industry at a time of soaring interest rates and high inflation.
    The moves follow losses in US banks yesterday, which
    tumbled even after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told
    lawmakers that regulators would be prepared for further steps to
    protect deposits if needed.
    “The situation will not be solved by comforting words, but
    will only be mitigated with concrete facts and figures,” said
    Andreas Lipkow, a strategist at Comdirect Bank. “Patience is
    therefore required and the coming quarterly figures from banks
    will be highly scrutinized.”
    Separately, a tier 2 subordinated bond by Deutsche Bank
    surged toward face value on Friday after the lender unexpectedly
    announced its decision to redeem the note early.
    The notes, which mature in 2028, had slumped to as low as
    90 cents in the aftermath of Credit Suisse’s takeover. While
    pricing had recovered in recent days, they were still indicated
    at about 94, suggesting a large probability of Deutsche Bank
    skipping its call option.
    The pressure on European banks is coming after regulators
    and company executives have sought to reassure traders about the
    health of the industry. The government-brokered takeover of
    Credit Suisse by UBS is “no indication” of the state of European
    banks, Deutsche Bank management board member Fabrizio Campelli
    said at a conference yesterday.
    He also said that the German lender’s retail deposits are
    “very diversified” and hence don’t have the kind of
    concentration risk that seems to have persisted at Silicon
    Valley Bank.
    Deutsche Bank Junior Bond Surges as Firm Defies Call Skip
    Fears
    The Stoxx 600 Banks Index was 4.4% lower on Friday, making
    it the worst-performing sector in Europe.
    “The greater danger is the economic outlook and indeed how
    both the economy and the financial system will cope with a
    recession,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn.
    “That’s when asset impairment is more likely. But of course the
    former can easily precipitate the latter, so it’s a fragile
    situation.”
    --With assistance from Farah Elbahrawy.
    To contact the reporter on this story:
    Macarena Muñoz in Madrid at [email protected]
    To contact the editors responsible for this story:
    Rodrigo Orihuela at [email protected]
    Charles Penty, Lynn Thomasson
  • Barron’s? Any take-aways?
    - Ben Levisohn wrote the “Up & Down Wall Street” lead column this week and certainly sounds bearish. Takes a “not too nice” dig at J. Powell and the latest .25% rate hike.
    - Lewis Braham has an interesting article on the importance of fund managers having “skin in the game.” Says several studies have demonstrated that funds with larger manager investment perform better than peers that lack substantial manager investment. Article looks at several specific funds in which the managers have a large stake. Quotes several managers. The SEC requires managers to disclose personal investment amounts in their own funds once a year. Using those figures, Lewis mentions several having anywhere from 50,000-100,000 to over a million dollars invested in their own funds.
    - There’s an article discussing big retailers as an investment. Very positive on Costco, Walmart snd others. I’m still too rattled from having watched K-Mart go from a small “Five & Dime” operation to a highly valued retail juggernaut and than eventually to a heap of ashes - all in my lifetime - to want to play with any big retailers.
    - There’s some positive commentary on gold in other section(s). Nothing too profound. A bit late to the party. Elsewhere I read that James Stack on Friday reduced the target allocation to financials in his model portfolio. Like the Barron’s gold column - also a bit late. (In fairness - Barron’s has been positive on gold / precious metals for some time - at least back as far as January.) Away from home so haven’t spent the time I should have reading Barron’s. Hope to get caught up in coming week. Are any of the contributors bullish? Please say yes. :)
    (Edited / corrected post after some additional reading & re-reading))
  • Credit Default Swaps
    Does anyone know where one would find charts of credit default swaps for the banks?
    I don't believe for a minute that this banking crisis is contained at all. So why are Schwab CDS blowing out if everything is ok per Chuck, CEO etc...? Why? Irrational fear, no trust/confidence in Yellen, Biden etc?
    I can't believe that Deutsche Bank is still operational in its current form. I actually just sold 100% of a fund last week that held their stocks via swaps and had DB as the counterparty (Not that I have any knowledge of what could happen etc, it is just that nope, even if I get a whiff of something might go haywire, in this climate I am Daddy to Basecamp I'm out.)
    I couldn't care less if I miss the next 25% upside in the market but sure would be tough if I didn't head for the bunker when I sniffed the 'Nader was coming...
    Got Gold? "This is contained" "Safe and Effective" "Ruble to Rubble"...blah blah blah?
    What say you, irrational thinking on my part or does everyone have their head in the sand?
    Baseball Fan
  • Where are you placing your RMD withdrawals ?
    I like the 'In-Kind" strategy:
    8-strategies-for-optimizing-rmds-from-iras
    Note, @bee linked article above from Forbes is out of date and incorrectly states when RMD's must be started. SECURE 2.0 Act is now law. Owners of retirement accounts must start taking RMDs at age 73.
  • CDs versus government bonds
    @Old_Joe. +.1. Your remarks about the possible hazard of a 5 year CD @5% in the face of declining rates are insightful. And loading up on such counting on the FDIC is an example of a moral hazard.
  • T. Rowe Price New Horizons and Emerging Markets Stock Funds reopening to new investors
    I just checked and Fidelity charges $75 for Vanguard and Dodge and Cox funds. A $50 fee would have been a real investor improvement for Fidelity but I guess Abigail Johnson needs to keep her net worth over $20 billion !
    Don't forget Schwab funds. Fidelity charges a $75 transaction fee for those as well.
    Brokerages extract fees from mutual fund families to carry their funds on the brokerage platform even when the platform charges investors a TF to trade those funds. If a fund family won't pay the fee for shelf space, the brokerage may decide to charge investors a higher transaction fee, or it may simply choose not to carry the fund family.
    I assume that Fidelity gets value in being able to say that it offers Vanguard, D&C, and Schwab funds, regardless of how many people actually pay the higher TF.
  • T. Rowe Price New Horizons and Emerging Markets Stock Funds reopening to new investors
    Fidelity's $75.00 transaction fee for Vanguard and Dodge & Cox funds has been in place for years.
    Their transaction fee for most other fund families is $49.95.
  • Do others have a favorite fund, or two?
    The following two funds have performed well for me and have been worry-free.
    Collectively they comprised 36% of my total portfolio at the beginning of the year.
    Interm. Core-Plus Bond: DOXIX
    Foreign Large Blend: MIEIX (invested in CIT "clone")
    Edit/Add:
    I've owned the following fund for ~5.5 years in my HSA and am pleased with its overall performance
    but it's only a small slice of my portfolio.
    Large Blend: PRILX
  • CDs versus government bonds
    "I did come across a 5%, 5 year CD with this credit union."
    @Jan- a bet on a long-term CD at a high interest rate has it's own risks for the issuing credit union or bank, and that risk is sort of the opposite from what took down Silicon Valley Bank recently. If the Fed's interest rates come down in a year or two that issuer will be stuck paying out at a high rate but itself having to invest for income at a lower rate. Do enough of that sort of thing and that ain't so hot either.
  • PKSAX? What do you think?
    @MikeW- The Schwab info above shows PKSAX to have a 5.5% Front Load. Is that correct? I ask because I believe that load funds are fairly rare today.
  • PKSAX? What do you think?
    These are the key attributes that attracted me to PKSAX. It is the only equity fund that I have found that has the combination of Great owl, consistent strong long term performance (3 year -- 15.9%, 5 year -- 13.9%, 10 year -- 14.9%), what I consider to be reasonable Max drawdowns in both March 2020 of 18.3% and 2022 of 17.7%, and managers who have been in place for a long time (since 2008). It has consistently beaten both its index and its category and does so with a non-traditional approach to sector selection. It has heavy concentrations in both industrials and financials which are quite different from its index. I was able to purchase it through the Thrift Savings plan which is the government's retirement program. I wonder if it might also be available in some other 401k programs. You are right its unfortunately not available at Schwab and Fidelity. Lewis is correct in that it is fairly concentrated, but it has managed that risk to date quite well. I would be very interested if anyone has identified any funds with similar attributes. I think they are rare...
  • CDs versus government bonds
    Our Social Security benefit is 55k per year. Home is paid off and no debt.
    We live pretty frugally - pretty much homebodies (boring you could say).
    I have just started to calculate how much we will spend including Medi-Care, taxes etc.
    We have no equities - all in CD’s and Money Market. I don’t have the stomach for the stock market.
    I did come across a 5%, 5 year CD with this credit union. It seems to be well established and the early withdrawal penalty is better than most. It’s supposed insured by the government. I would appreciate your opinion on it. Most other institutions are in the 4.5 range.
    https://allincu.com/
    All In Credit Union - 5.00% APY
    Term (months): 60
    Minimum deposit: $1,000
    Early-withdrawal penalty: 3 months of interest
    Membership: Anyone can join All In by signing up for a free membership in the Fort Rucker/Wiregrass Chapter of the Association of United States Army, keeping at least $5 in a savings account, and paying a one-time fee of $1.
    I’ll look into CD and Treasury ladders as I don’t understand the advantages over regular CD’s but it would seem those exempt from federal taxes would/could make a big difference.
    Thanks for all the feedback!
  • Don't believe --- Bruce Fund
    yogibearbull is exactly right - and the 'financial' writer made the same mistake consistently. And what was the editor doing? Surely a 'distribution' of "58.7%" should have led someone do to some fact checking.
  • PKSAX? What do you think?
    MikeW mentioned this fund in another thread. I was going to ask for your opinions on this one, but when I tried entering a "test order" at Schwab it shows open to existing buyers only. Anyway, below is some info from Schwab- it looks to be a pretty good fund.
    image image image
  • CDs versus government bonds
    With respect to directly- (bank-) sold CDs, Ken Tumin at depositaccounts.com has a cautionary note:
    Some banks and credit unions have language in their CD disclosures that allows them to refuse an early withdrawal request. Although CD early withdrawal refusal by a bank or credit union is rare, it is possible. Review the CD disclosure for this type of wording.
    https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/2019-study-cd-early-withdrawal-penalties-changed.html
    He reports finding typical early withdrawal penalties averaging around 1 year's interest on a 5 year CD. Tolerable I suppose if you hold the CD for at least half way. The piece was written in 2019; I doubt penalties have gone down since then.
    Broker-sold CDs can be harder to get out of. This is usually done by selling them on the secondary market. The CDs are thinly traded and one risks losing a lot by selling early.
    Either way, with bank failures more than a theoretical concern now, you should probably check into the financials of the bank you're thinking of using. While a CD and its accrued interest is insured, should the bank fail, your rate going forward might be reduced. This isn't a concern for short term CDs. However, you're looking to lock in a rate for many years, and that could be stymied by a bank failing.
    https://publicintegrity.org/inequality-poverty-opportunity/when-banks-fail-so-do-those-promised-cd-rates/
    Buying a CD (for some of your money) is not a bad idea, you just need to exercise care.
    ---
    I think you (OP) meant that if interest rates rise and you need cash, selling a bond could result in a significant loss. Just look at what happened at Silicon Valley Bank.
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    Started to nibble at hstrx.
    Not a bad pick if you can buy NTF. There’s a fee at Fido. I looked at that one yesterday and was surprised it hasn’t done better this year with both gold and bonds having a decent year. Your question doesn’t define the time frame. For most nowadays a year seems an eternity. Some have much shorter and will eject after a month or two or three when a fund heads south.
    I must not have any favorites because I have 20 different holdings. The largest 4 come in at 10% of portfolio each. They represent different variations on alternative and asset allocation type funds where I’m most comfortable at my age. While each could loose 5 or 10% in a terrible year, as a group they are fairly stable - very much “set it and forget it” type holdings. I rationalize a somewhat expensive L/S alternative by considering the overall cost of my funds and also by holding a few individual stocks to reduce costs.
    You mention EM funds. I have a very small 1-2% hold in one. Bought in at the depths last year, so it’s already gained some. Before it gets back to any kind of reasonable valuation I will sell and roll the $$ into a broadly diversified balanced fund at the same house. In that case you’re paid to wait because by most accounts EM valuations are still compelling. I have a very small 2% bite on SPDN - an 1X inverse S&P. That’s to moderate volatility on down days. I think there are many other areas that will perform much better than the S&P over the next several years. With that inverse offset it allows taking on a bit more risk in other areas. International funds plus a few individual socks stocks are some I like. Japan is a long-shot. But exposure there might add a bit of diversification relative to domestic markets.
    Inserted later - Non dollar-hedged Japan adds a currency play. I suspect that’s the better way to go at this point. Check back in a year.
    Whoever said PRPFX in @MikeM’s thread made good sense to me. With some funds, throw away the performance numbers and look at what’s inside. If you see a case for precious metals, foreign currencies, real estate, and some AAA government bonds for defense in the future you might like the fund. I do. Albeit, some criticize it saying fees are too high for what amounts to a passive investment approach.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Dividend-paying stocks are gaining new respect among investors, and they are proving to be a protective asset in times of market volatility. ClearBridge Investments’ Dividend Strategy Fund has been named one of “The Best Dividend Funds” for 2023 by Morningstar. Michael Clarfeld, co-portfolio manager of the fund, is with us to explain why high-quality companies with histories of growing their dividends are particularly valuable now.


  • T. Rowe Price New Horizons and Emerging Markets Stock Funds reopening to new investors
    I stand corrected again. It used to be $50, but Fidelity would blame that on HIGH inflation.
  • CDs versus government bonds
    Don’t know about your finance situation and risk tolerance. So here it goes for your questions on CDs:
    1. As of today the only CDs that yield 5% are those with shorter duration ones, 9-12 month. Creating a CD ladder is necessary in order to maintain cash flow (income) as you desired. For example, a one-year ladder consisting of 4 CDs with each maturing every 3 months would provide income every 3 months. So it boils down to how much extra income you want from your CDs. Don’t forget that the interest accrued from CDs is taxed as ordinary income with both federal and state tax applies. Treasury bills/notes are federal tax-exempt but state tax is still applied.
    2. CDs are safe (FDIC insured) but they are not liquid during the investment period. Some bank CDs pay interest monthly, but they pay at lower yield. Brokered CDs at your brokerages pay higher yield, but majority of them pay at maturity, not monthly. Treasury bills (1 -12 months), on the other hand, are highly liquid and one can sell them on secondary market if necessary. Creating T bills ladders will provide periodic income just as CD ladders.
    3. At current inflation rate (CPI as of Feb 2023 is at 6.2% y-o-y), you are losing future buying power each year by investing in CDs alone. Thus, other investment vehicles such as stocks, bonds, and others are required as part of the “growth” component of your retirement income.
    Within this MFO discussion forum, you are getting opinions from other investors. The best answer should come from your financial planner. At least you have something to consider as a starting point. Best wishes.