Does anyone know where one would find charts of credit default swaps for the banks?
I don't believe for a minute that this banking crisis is contained at all. So why are Schwab CDS blowing out if everything is ok per Chuck, CEO etc...? Why? Irrational fear, no trust/confidence in Yellen, Biden etc?
I can't believe that Deutsche Bank is still operational in its current form. I actually just sold 100% of a fund last week that held their stocks via swaps and had DB as the counterparty (Not that I have any knowledge of what could happen etc, it is just that nope, even if I get a whiff of something might go haywire, in this climate I am Daddy to Basecamp I'm out.)
I couldn't care less if I miss the next 25% upside in the market but sure would be tough if I didn't head for the bunker when I sniffed the 'Nader was coming...
Got Gold? "This is contained" "Safe and Effective" "Ruble to Rubble"...blah blah blah?
What say you, irrational thinking on my part or does everyone have their head in the sand?
Baseball Fan
Comments
By Macarena Muñoz
(Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG was at the center of
another selloff in financial shares heading into the weekend.
The German bank tumbled 12% on Friday. Credit default-swaps
on Deutsche Bank’s euro, senior debt surged to the highest since
they were introduced in 2019. Other banks with high exposure to
corporate lending also declined, with Commerzbank sliding 9% and
France’s Societe Generale falling 7%.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency
rescue of Credit Suisse last weekend has rattled investors and
raised questions about the broader stability of the financial
industry at a time of soaring interest rates and high inflation.
The moves follow losses in US banks yesterday, which
tumbled even after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told
lawmakers that regulators would be prepared for further steps to
protect deposits if needed.
“The situation will not be solved by comforting words, but
will only be mitigated with concrete facts and figures,” said
Andreas Lipkow, a strategist at Comdirect Bank. “Patience is
therefore required and the coming quarterly figures from banks
will be highly scrutinized.”
Separately, a tier 2 subordinated bond by Deutsche Bank
surged toward face value on Friday after the lender unexpectedly
announced its decision to redeem the note early.
The notes, which mature in 2028, had slumped to as low as
90 cents in the aftermath of Credit Suisse’s takeover. While
pricing had recovered in recent days, they were still indicated
at about 94, suggesting a large probability of Deutsche Bank
skipping its call option.
The pressure on European banks is coming after regulators
and company executives have sought to reassure traders about the
health of the industry. The government-brokered takeover of
Credit Suisse by UBS is “no indication” of the state of European
banks, Deutsche Bank management board member Fabrizio Campelli
said at a conference yesterday.
He also said that the German lender’s retail deposits are
“very diversified” and hence don’t have the kind of
concentration risk that seems to have persisted at Silicon
Valley Bank.
Deutsche Bank Junior Bond Surges as Firm Defies Call Skip
Fears
The Stoxx 600 Banks Index was 4.4% lower on Friday, making
it the worst-performing sector in Europe.
“The greater danger is the economic outlook and indeed how
both the economy and the financial system will cope with a
recession,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn.
“That’s when asset impairment is more likely. But of course the
former can easily precipitate the latter, so it’s a fragile
situation.”
--With assistance from Farah Elbahrawy.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Macarena Muñoz in Madrid at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Rodrigo Orihuela at [email protected]
Charles Penty, Lynn Thomasson
Barron's this week has a bearish (but sloppy) story on SCHW. I will watch how it trades on Monday. It is still above +73.5% from 2020 Covid low. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/990/thread
BEARISH. Schwab (SCHW; cash-sorting – lot of cash is leaving Schwab because its brokerage accounts don’t offer money-market funds as core/settlement account and Schwab Bank rates are paltry; 50% of 2022 revenues were from net interest revenues; the HTM portfolio is carried at par, but if marked-to-market, losses would well exceed the capital base; Schwab points out that the AFS portfolio (already market-to-market) will provide ample liquidity; insiders bought stock to boost confidence; stock may remain weak; a full-page ad on its government SNVXX and retail-prime SWVXX money-market funds is on pg 21; pg 14)
Schwab has issued statements such as that even if 100% of its bank deposits leave, it has enough liquidity to meet that. And its insiders have bought stock.
Best Regards,
Baseball Fan
Per Billie Joel:
You may be right
I may be crazy
Oh, but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for
Turn out the light
Don't try to save me
You may be wrong for all I know
But you may be right
The future is clear as mud.
The apparent rationale seemed to be that this sort of data was being misused and causing unnecessary panic. An alternative would have been to be more educational. As it is, the free CDS data are hard to find.
Issuer Spread (bps) Yield
Citizens Financial 2775 30.47%
Bank of New York Mellon 1386 17.13%
Capital One Financial 1066 14.19%
PNC Financial Services 907 12.70%
Citigroup 805 12.03%
State Street 743 12.26%
U.S. Bancorp 723 10.69%
JPMorgan Chase 716 11.38%
Goldman Sachs 642 10.36%
Bank of America 634 10.24%
Truist Bank 586 9.97%
Wells Fargo 563 9.62%
TD Group US Holdings 534 8.62%
Morgan Stanley 350 7.72%