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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    Best of Mao and Putin, rolled into one. And I love what he's doing to the Oval Office decor.
    Gold trim and self-portraits everywhere? That's not tacky at all. Nope.
    A few side notes from today's BLS Employment Report:
    The ratio of employed workers to the total population fell to 59.7%, the lowest rate since the pandemic.
    An alternative measure of unemployment that includes "discouraged" workers, or those who have stopped looking for work, returned to a post-pandemic high of 4.5%.
  • GDX Index Change at Reconstitution & Rebalance
    Major gold-miners etf GDX (AUM $16.55 billion, ER 0.51%, 05/2006- ) index will also change at it scheduled reconstitution & rebalance on 9/19/25.
    The current Index is NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index.
    The new index will be MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (MVGDXTR). It's a free-float market-cap index with some exchange eligibility criteria. It also includes some silver-mining companies. An additional requirement will be that 50%+ of revenues or assets must be related to gold & silver mining. The change will be made gradually. The overlap between majors GDX & juniors GDXJ will be reduced a bit (this overlap cannot be avoided due to the size of GDXJ).
    Note that junior-miners etf GDXJ (AUM $5.67 billion, ER 0.51%, 11/2009- ) follows MVGDXJ Junior Gold Miners Index.
    https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/what-to-know-about-gdxs-index-change/
  • VanEck's Emerging Markets Bond fund is being converted into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/768847/000076884725000122/vaneckfundsemb-supplementt.htm
    497 1 vaneckfundsemb-supplementt.htm 497E SUPPLEMENT TO SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND SAI
    vvtsupplement_image1a01a.jpg
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JUNE 6, 2025
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2025, AND THE CURRENT STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    OF VANECK FUNDS
    EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND
    Class A: EMBAX / Class I: EMBUX / Class Y: EMBYX
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING THE CONVERSION OF EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND INTO AN EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the above-dated Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for VanEck Funds regarding Emerging Markets Bond Fund (the “Fund”). You may obtain copies of the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information free of charge, upon request, by calling toll-free 1.800.826.2333 or visiting the VanEck website at www.vaneck.com.
    •In October 2025, the Fund will be converted from a mutual fund to an exchange-traded fund (“ETF”).
    •If you are an existing shareholder of the Fund, and your account CAN hold an ETF, your Fund shares will be converted, and no action is needed by you.
    •If you hold the Fund in an account that CANNOT hold an ETF (i.e., your account is not permitted to purchase securities traded in the stock market), there are certain actions you can take as further detailed below.
    On June 5, 2025, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of VanEck Funds (the “Trust”) approved converting the Fund into an ETF by the reorganization of the Fund into a corresponding ETF, the VanEck Emerging Markets Bond ETF (the “Acquiring ETF”), which will be a newly created series of the Trust.
    The Board, including all of the Trustees who are not “interested persons” (as defined in the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended) of the Trust, determined, with respect to the Reorganization (as defined below), that participation in the Reorganization is in the best interests of the Fund and the interests of existing shareholders of the Fund will not be diluted as a result of the Reorganization. Following the Reorganization, the Fund will be liquidated (such reorganization and liquidation, the “Reorganization”). The Reorganization is currently anticipated to close as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on or about October 3, 2025.
    The Reorganization will be conducted pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization and Liquidation (“Plan”) and is structured to be a tax-free reorganization under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended. As a result, Fund shareholders generally will not recognize a taxable gain (or loss) for U.S. tax purposes due to the Reorganization (except with respect to cash received, as noted below).
    In connection with the Reorganization, shareholders of the Fund will receive Acquiring ETF shares and a cash payment in lieu of any fractional shares of the Acquiring ETF, which in total are equal in value to the number of shares of the Fund they own. The redemption of fractional shares may be a taxable event. Importantly, to receive shares of the Acquiring ETF as part of the Reorganization,
    Fund shareholders must hold their shares through an account that can hold shares of an ETF (i.e., a brokerage account). If Fund shareholders do not hold their shares through an account that can hold shares of an ETF, they will not receive shares of the Acquiring ETF as part of the Reorganization.
    No action is required for Fund shareholders that hold Fund shares through an account that can hold shares of an ETF.
    Completion of the Reorganization is subject to conditions under the Plan. Fund shareholders are not required to approve the Reorganization. Fund shareholders will receive an information statement/prospectus describing in detail both the Reorganization and the Acquiring ETF, and a summary of the Board's considerations in approving the Reorganization.
    Important Notice About Your Fund Account
    Questions and Answers
    Q. Why did VanEck propose the conversion of my mutual fund to an ETF?
    A. VanEck believes that the Reorganization will provide multiple benefits for investors of the Fund, including lower expenses, additional trading flexibility, increased portfolio holdings transparency and the potential for enhanced tax efficiency.
    Q. How does VanEck anticipate that the Fund be managed after the Reorganization?
    A. It is currently anticipated that the Acquiring ETF will be managed in substantially the same manner as the Fund, with minimal changes, if at all, to the Fund's investment process or the portfolio management team.
    Q. What types of shareholder accounts can receive shares of an ETF as part of the Reorganization?
    A. If you hold your Fund shares in an account that permits you to purchase securities traded on U.S. stock exchanges, such as ETFs or other types of stocks, then you will be eligible to receive shares of the Acquiring ETF in the Reorganization. No further action is needed by you.
    Q. What types of shareholder accounts cannot receive shares of an ETF as part of the Reorganization?
    A. The following account types cannot hold ETFs:
    •If you hold your Fund shares in an account with a financial intermediary that only allows you to hold shares of mutual funds in the account, you will need to contact your broker or financial intermediary to transfer your shares to an existing or new brokerage account that permits investment in ETF shares. If you do nothing, you will not receive shares of the ETF and your position will be liquidated and you will receive a cash distribution equal in value to the net asset value of your Fund shares less any fees and expenses your intermediary may charge. This event may be taxable. To prevent a taxable event, please contact your broker or financial intermediary to transfer your shares to an existing or new brokerage account.
    •If you hold your Fund shares through an IRA or group retirement plan whose plan sponsor does not have the ability to hold shares of ETFs on its platform, you may need to redeem your shares prior to the Reorganization, or your broker or intermediary may transfer your investment in the Fund to a different investment option prior to or at the time of the Reorganization.
    •If you are unsure about the ability of your account to accept shares of an ETF, please contact your broker or financial intermediary.
    Q. How do I transfer my Fund shares to a brokerage account that will accept ETF shares?
    A. The broker where you hold your Fund shares should be able to assist you in transferring your shares to a brokerage account that can accept shares of an ETF. The sooner you initiate the transfer, the better. If you don't have a brokerage account or a relationship with a brokerage firm, you will need to open an account with a brokerage firm.
    Q. What if I do not want to own shares of an ETF?
    A. If you do not want to receive shares of the Acquiring ETF in connection with the Reorganization, you can exchange your Fund shares for shares of another VanEck mutual fund that is not participating in the Reorganization or redeem your Fund shares. Prior to doing so, however, you should consider the tax consequences associated with either action. Exchange or redemption of your Fund shares may be a taxable event if you hold your shares in a taxable account.
    * * *
    In connection with the Reorganization discussed herein, a prospectus/information statement included in a registration statement on Form N-14 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when available because they will contain important information about the Reorganization. Free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. A paper copy of the materials can be obtained at no charge by calling 1.800.826.2333. This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale. No offer of securities will be made except pursuant to a prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    *******************Registration filing for emerging markets bond ETF*******************************:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/768847/000076884725000124/vaneckemergingmarketsbonde.htm
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/4/25
    Posters here don't need the reminder that sentiment indicators are contrarian.
    I used to mention it in 2021-2022, but then skipped it.
    But as these posts now are also at Facebook, X/Twitter, Bluesky, LinkedIn, I restored this caution in March 2025 in view of its wider audience.
    Sentients shouldn't be relied on as sole criteria for investment decisions.
    Personally, if I am going to sell something, I may wait for good sentiments; if I am going to buy something, I may wait for poor sentiments.
    Corollary is that I avoid buying when sentiment is too good and avoid selling when sentiment to too poor.
  • Altegris/AACA Opportunistic Real Estate Fund is being organized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314414/000158064225003470/nlft-altegris_497.htm
    497 1 nlft-altegris_497.htm
    Altegris/AACA Opportunistic Real Estate Fund
    Class A Shares: RAAAX
    Class C Shares: RAACX
    Class I: RAAIX
    a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust
    Supplement dated June 5, 2025, to the Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information dated April 30, 2025
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Northern Lights Fund Trust (the “Trust”) has approved the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Altegris/AACA Opportunistic Real Estate Fund (the “Target Fund”) into the LDR Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund, a series of the World Funds Trust (the “Acquiring Fund”), to be managed by LDR Capital Management, LLC the investment adviser of the Target Fund. A combined proxy statement/prospectus will be sent to each shareholder of record of the Target Funds. The closing of each Reorganization will be subject to approval by the Target Fund’s shareholders. The combined proxy statement/prospectus will describe in greater detail the Reorganization and the reasons that the Reorganization was approved by the Board, subject to shareholder approval. If approved by the Target Fund’s shareholders, the closing of the Reorganization is expected to occur as soon as reasonably practicable after such approval is obtained.
    The Target Fund and the Acquiring Fund will have the same investment objective, principal investment strategies and portfolio manager.
    No shareholder action is necessary at this time. More detailed information will be provided in a forthcoming combined proxy statement/prospectus to shareholders. When you receive your proxy statement, please review it carefully and cast your vote. This Supplement is not a proxy and is not soliciting any proxy, which can only be done by means of a proxy statement.
    On the date of the Reorganization, shareholders who own shares of the Target Fund will receive shares of the corresponding Acquiring Fund. Prior to the Reorganization, the Target Fund will continue to operate as described in its most recent Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information and will continue to accept investments from new and existing shareholders. If you have any questions about the Target Fund, the Acquiring Fund, or the Reorganization, please call 1-877-772-5838.
    This Supplement and the existing Statement of Additional Information dated April 30, 2025, provides relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. The Statement of Additional Information has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, is incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling 1-877-772-5838.
  • Lyrical International Value Equity Fund redeems A and C shares classes
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1545440/000158064225003481/umt-lyrical_497.htm
    497 1 umt-lyrical_497.htm
    June 5, 2025
    ULTIMUS MANAGERS TRUST
    Lyrical International Value Equity Fund
    Institutional Class (LYRWX)
    Investor Class (LYRNX)
    A Class (LYRVX)
    C Class (LYRZX)
    Supplement to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated March 30, 2025
    This supplement updates certain information in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of the Lyrical International Value Equity Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Ultimus Managers Trust (the “Trust”), as described below. For more information or to obtain a copy of the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus or SAI, free of charge, please contact the Fund toll free at 1-888-884-8099.
    Termination, Liquidation and Redemption of A Class and C Class Shares
    Effective immediately, the Fund has terminated the public offering of its A Class and C Class shares and will discontinue the operations of the A Class and C Class shares of the Fund effective June 30, 2025. The A Class and C Class shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase and, at the close of business on June 30, 2025, all outstanding A Class and C Class shares of the Fund will be redeemed at the net asset value per share of A Class and C Class shares, respectively (the “Transaction”).
    Upon the recommendation of the Fund’s investment adviser, Lyrical Asset Management, LP (the “Adviser”), the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Trust determined to terminate the public offering of the Fund’s A Class and C Class shares, liquidate the assets of the Fund’s A Class and C Class shares and redeem all outstanding shares of the Fund’s A Class and C Class shares based on, among other factors, the Adviser’s belief that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to discontinue the operations of the Fund’s A Class and C Class shares in view of the net assets of A Class and C Class shares. Through the date of the Transaction, the Adviser will continue to waive investment advisory fees and/or reimburse expenses of each of the A Class and C Class shares of the Fund, as necessary, in order to maintain the A Class and C Class shares at their respective current expense limits, as specified in the Prospectuses.
    In connection with the Transaction: (i) all of the portfolio securities of the A Class and C Class shares of the Fund will be liquidated in an orderly manner not later than June 30, 2025; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on June 30, 2025 will be closed and the proceeds of each account be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder, including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing accounts. As a result of the Transaction, the portfolio holdings in the A Class and C Class shares of the Fund will be reduced to cash or cash equivalent securities. Accordingly, going forward, shareholders should not expect the A Class and C Class shares of the Fund to achieve the Fund’s stated investment objectives.
    Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their A Class and C Class shares of the Fund on each day the New York Stock Exchange is open for business prior to the date of the Transaction.
    The Transaction will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns. In addition, shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders generally have 60 days from the date that proceeds are received to re-invest or “rollover” the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise, the proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
    The Fund’s other share classes, Institutional Class and Investor Class, will remain open and operational. Following the Transaction, all references to the A Class and C Class shares in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI are hereby removed.
    If you have any questions regarding the Funds, please call 1-888-890-8988.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • Has anyone checked on Cathie Wood yet today?
    Please don’t tempt me to buy some TSLA. Recently swore-off owning individual stocks or would wade in. Not sure why TSLA tumbled. A lot of folks who stayed away due to Musk’s participation in politics may gradually come back. Plus, Musk is devoting more time to the company. This divergence with the administration should be good for TSLA. The maga crowd isn’t much into electrics.
    My first thought today was that this was a “staged” battle to help TSLA recapture some lost customers. But it now appears too personal / ugly to be just that. If Musk’s ”Epstein Files” charge has legs, it might provide some cover for members of Congress who would like to stand up to power but currently are afraid to. (But that matter belongs in OT).
    This spat may be good for (“One-way”) Boeing. I’d probably buy that too if I weren’t currently on the wagon. Musk has threatened to decommission Space-X’s Dragon capsule that ferries astronauts to and from the ISS.
  • GENIUS Act has a sneaky gotcha for 'traditional' banking clients

    https://www.levernews.com/cryptos-new-bailout-fund-your-savings-account/
    Crypto’s New Bailout Fund: Your Savings Account

    The GENIUS Act would require banks to prioritize stablecoin owners over customers if there’s a financial collapse.

    Included in the legislation is a provision declaring that if a bank goes bankrupt or becomes insolvent, “the claim of a person holding payment stablecoins issued by the payment stablecoin issuer shall have priority over all other claims against the payment stablecoin issuer.”
    According to Georgetown Law professor Adam Levitin, who specializes in financial regulation, this essentially means that “if a bank custodian for a stablecoin issuer’s reserves ends up insolvent, the claims of the stablecoin investors will come ahead of the bank depositors.”
    So if a financial institution goes out of business, it will be legally obligated to first make stablecoin depositors whole, even if it means using what remains of other customers’ money.
    < - >

    The Genius Act also stipulates that even non-depository financial institutions that operate like banks, such as highly volatile money market funds, will have to prioritize stablecoin holders over other customers.

    < - >
    For a more thorough analysis, check this out from a white-shoe DC law firm:
    https://www.arnoldporter.com/en/perspectives/advisories/2025/06/incoming-stablecoin-legislation-stable-and-genius-acts
    ... I guess that's one way to get people to buy into cryptocurrency, eh?
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    I kind of wonder what is in the water supply in Atlanta after reading coverage of the latest Beige Book from the Fed. Dinky linky.
    According to the report, nine of the 12 Fed districts reported contraction in economic activity or no change in growth. The remaining districts saw slight growth.
    Business contacts across the country said consumers were not spending and described labor markets as “flat.”
    Summing things up, the report said that “all districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which has led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions.”
    Reading the report from Atlanta, well, draw your own conclusions about the value of GDPNow.:YADL.
  • Has anyone checked on Cathie Wood yet today?
    Why would you follow Wood?
    Her fund AKRR lost money in 5 years and is way down from 2021. See chart.
    https://schrts.co/HtmUQPvd
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    "Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400.”
    Hmmm wonder if rono is selling any here.
    rono’s pretty smart. I’d imagine he’s already fled the country with his bounty before the government decides to confiscate all bullion and issue owners some form of “digital gold” instead.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    "Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400."
    Hmmm, wonder if rono is selling any here.
  • Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
    Forbes had an article on MP a while back.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2025/04/21/the-only-us-rare-earth-mine-may-win-big-from-trumps-china-tariffs/?ctpv=searchpage
    and another more recent look at rare earths and a couple of other companies
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimvinoski/2025/04/23/will-america-finally-set-a-sane-path-forward-for-rare-earth-elements/?ctpv=searchpage
    I have a small amount in MP and REMX VanEck Vectors Rare Earth Strategy which is 30% Chinese companies
    I was surprised neither took off with the latest fight over Rare Earths although MP seems to have some life recently.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    Short-term / near-term data like this isn’t very helpful. I won’t fault FD for citing it because all of us mention short-term or near-term numbers from time to time, sometimes even noting day-to-day or month-to-month changes in stock averages (guilty as charged).
    Inflation going down? Tell that to bond traders or the gold market. While the latter trades a lot on emotion and is very erratic, the trend can’t be mistaken. In both cases (bonds & metals) the trend signals higher, not lower, inflation.
    5 years ago investors in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond were demanding a rate of 0.60% to buy. Now, they’re demanding around 4.40%. That reflects what they think they need to earn from a “risk-free” (not really) investment to keep up with inflation over the next decade. Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400. And the FX is telling a similar story with a recent fall in the dollar. On this one, the numbers are too recent to define a trend - but my guess is there is an emerging longer-term trend (ominous for inflation).
    I’d planned to cite some other commodities, but realized many were so distorted by the Covid period (like oil which got down to under $14) that they’re not worth citing. I won’t play politics. Neither side has an A+ on fighting inflation. And the issue is much more entrenched and complicated than what any one administration can solve. That’s not to argue the present one hasn’t made mistakes.
    Are we discussing inflation from an investment perspective (longer-term outlook and how to invest to stay ahead?) or from a political perspective (Has Trump caused more or less inflation than Biden?) The second doesn’t much help me. But the first is very helpful to understanding what funds / assets to own and which ones to avoid.
    From a 5-10 year investment perspective - with persistent or higher inflation
    Cash? It’s OK. Rates should roughly approximate inflation over time.
    Ultra-Short bond funds? Thumbs-up
    Longer-dated bonds? Thumbs-down
    1-3 year high quality bonds? Even-Steven. Probably OK. I own a slug of NEAR
    Junk bonds? Dunno. Don’t play in that park. I’d say to buy them when no one wants them.
    TIPS? Yes - With the qualification that they’re best directly held (not jerked around by fund flows). Randall Forsyth has a column in this week’s Barrons highly favorable. Read it.
    Cash + bond alternatives (like CVSIX, GDL, LPXAX)? Decent. Worth consideration.
    Precious metals? No way at my age. Pretty to look at. But too volatile & risky.
    Commodities / “real asset” funds? Yes. But only in moderation. Very cyclical.
    “Systematic” multi-asset approaches? - Worth holding as a diversifier. I own BAMBX.
    Equities? Depends which ones. I like broadly diversified / balanced funds with an international tilt.
    RPSIX? You have to be kidding. Look at its 10-year performance - and with a healthy slug of equities.
  • Morningstar - The Modern 529 Plan
    Hi @yogibearbull Thank you for the list and updates. The Secure Act 2 for 529's has been discussed here. We've pushed this plan to others for years. And we've recently taken advantage of the Roth rollover twice. This provision is a very nice bump to a young person's retirement program.
  • Morningstar - The Modern 529 Plan
    M* - The Modern 529 Plan

    Many limitations or deficiencies of 529 have been eliminated due to various legislations. Many 529 plans have also improved. But many people aren't familiar with these changes.
    Timeline
    2008 Heart Act
    Rollover of unused 529 to 529-ABLE (rules apply).
    2010 Small Business Jobs Act
    Temporary: Computer equipment became qualified educational expense.
    2014 Tax Increase Prevention Act
    Extension, 2014: Computer equipment became qualified educational expense.
    2015 Path Act
    Permanent: Computer equipment became qualified educational expense.
    2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA)
    $10K/yr for K-12 tuition.
    2019 Secure Act 1.0
    Limited student loan payments.
    Apprenticeship/vocational training expenses allowed.
    2022 Secure Act 2.0
    Limited Roth Rollovers.
    Employer match for 529 contributions.
    2024 FAFSA Simplification Act
    Grandparent 529 penalty removed.
    https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/modern-529-plan
  • USG delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
    Many people of means have hoped for a switch from income based federal taxation to consumption based taxation. This would not bode well with the majority of American people since the majority are working class who spend most of their income on consumption while people of means spend only a small fraction of their income on consumption. Tariffs, with their promise of generating/replacing taxes from income with taxes from "elsewhere", are easier to sell to the unaware than sales taxes. It's all a slight-of-tongue trick with the language of who "elsewhere" is and how a "tariff" differs from a sales tax. When people come to understand it may be too late. Hopefully the workers will still be entitled to union representation and be powerful enough to demand that wages rise to the level of covering the sales taxes, now called tariffs. Otherwise, consider your decendents being used to replace the immigrant worker class in America and increased poverty that is ignored and not subsidized by taxes. I imagine that, if EITC weren't really a subsidy to low wage businesses, they would be on the chopping block too.
    I wonder how high tariffs need to go to eliminate the top three or four income tax brackets? (or vastly broaden the bands, which is harder to guess)
    Found it! I knew G.Bush's Tax Commission had an estimate of the flat tax type rate. Here it is:
    Simple, Fair, and Pro-Growth: Proposals to Fix America’s Tax System
    Report of the President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform November 2005
    The Treasury Department estimated that a Flat Tax imposed on a broad consumption
    tax base would require a 21 percent tax rate to preserve revenue neutrality.
    By the way - Chapter 9 of the report estimates that the replacement with a retail sales tax would be 22% and has graphs showing the replacement increasing taxes on lower incomes while reducing taxes on higher incomes. Other scheme, such as VAT, are also discussed in the report.
    Another edit for 2005 perspective:
    In 2005, 2.1539T in revenues, and 2.4722T in expenditures
    Table 1.3—SUMMARY OF RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND SURPLUSES OR DEFICITS (–) IN CURRENT DOLLARS, CONSTANT (FY 2000) DOLLARS, AND
    AS PERCENTAGES OF GDP: 1940–2011
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    There are (at least) two different concerns raised here:
    1) Staffing shortages in the federal government (not just in BLS) affect the ability of the government to do its job. Ditto @crash 's comment.
    2) Lower sampling of data (whether price data as here or other data in different arenas) increases the uncertainty in the accuracy of the average of the samples. Sampling is never exact. (Well, unless you "sample" 100% of the data points.)
    The fewer the number of samples taken, the greater the uncertainty. One often hears of polls reporting some result +/- a couple of percent. Those polls also report a certain level of confidence, typically 95%. That means that 95% of the time such a sampling it taken, the true average falls within the +/- range of the sample's average.
    https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/confidence-interval/
    Take fewer samples, fill in the gaps differently, and that uncertainty range increases. Though taking fewer samples doesn't necessarily skew the sampling result one way or the other. Hence the decrease in quality (accuracy) as reported, but not bias.
    Detmeister said it is impossible to tell whether the reliance on different-cell estimates [gap-filling] skewed the data in one direction or the other.
    “When you take a sample and reduce the numbers, it’s going to increase the sampling error.”
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/4/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/4/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (41.4%, high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.9%, below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (32.7%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -8.7% (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (171+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+10 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 67.85% (positive). Gold-miners rallied. Private sector jobs were weak (ADP). Slow progress on trade deals. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2023/thread
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    "The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week
    that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses
    where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians
    had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past."

    "Economists say the staffing shortage raises questions about the quality of recent and coming inflation reports.
    There is no sign of an intentional effort to publish false or misleading statistics.
    But any problems with the data could have major implications for the economy."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/economists-raise-questions-about-quality-of-us-inflation-data/ar-AA1G5yqt