Just a few short weeks ago, Credit Suisse was offering corporate bonds at Schwab with tempting rates over what treasuries were at the time, ~5.26% I believe. I remember actually thinking about it. I think CS was rated A+ with, I thought, a good pedigree. Sure am glad now I didn't follow through.

GFC pay-to-play antics aside, that's just another reason why I tend to ignore 'ratings' by so-called 'agencies'. Sure, I might miss out on something good, but by the same token, in such things I feel more comfortable with my own Spidey Sense and due diligence. And when it comes to banks, I still don't trust them - or like them as investments - so I don't have any direct investments in them.
Note how quickly the 'agencies' began to re-evaluate their opinions* on various banks in recent days. All of a sudden? Gee, isn't that ironic?
* which is really all the 'ratings' are

Just a few short weeks ago, Credit Suisse was offering corporate bonds at Schwab with tempting rates over what treasuries were at the time, ~5.26% I believe. I remember actually thinking about it. I think CS was rated A+ with, I thought, a good pedigree. Sure am glad now I didn't follow through.

Swiss regulator FINMA declared a credit-event during the negotiations to trigger default of AT1/CoCo (contingent-convertible) bonds that are AHEAD of common stock in the capital structure. The rescue left some residual equity.
That of course, caused a selloff in ALL CoCo bonds in Europe.
The EU - ECB, SRB, EBA issued statements that what happened in Switzerland CANNOT happen in the EU (meaning that in the EU, the equity must be wiped out first, and then only the AT1/CoCo bonds). The BOE also issued a similar statement for the UK. But damage has been done to this CoCo class of bonds.
Jeffery Gundlach of DoubleLine wasn't into these bonds and tweeted LINK (with great hindsight):
"Jeffrey Gundlach
@TruthGundlach
·
Mar 19
Bloomberg reports the gunslingers who foolishly kept holding Credit Suisse’s bail-in bonds are angry they are being wiped out. Seriously? Put on your big boy pants and look in the mirror. That’s where the “blame” lies. Learn how to manage risk!"

”Four prominent U.S. lawmakers on banking matters said on Sunday they would consider whether a higher federal insurance limit on bank deposits was needed to stem a financial crisis marked by a drain of large, uninsured deposits away from smaller and regional banks.”
Story
Bloomberg is reporting this evening that Fed officials are also actively considering a plan to extend FDIC insurance to all bank account balances, regardless of amount. And there was one report on Bloomberg that money has now begun fleeing the largest banks. Where will all this end?
Shelia Bair Weighs in

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1388485/000182912623002136/polenemerging_497.htm
One of the changes to the fund is name:
Effective March 13, 2023, the Fund’s name was changed from “Polen Global Emerging Markets Growth Fund” to “Polen Emerging Markets Growth Fund” and all references in the Prospectus and SAI are hereby changed to the new name as of that date. There have been no changes to the Fund’s investment objective or principal investment strategies in connection with the name change.

From Reuters

Did not watch the Sunday Face The Nation. But the Reuters article is clear. It all stinks to high heaven.
Anybody want a Senate that's NOT all screwed up? Make it 50 Warrens and 50 Sanders.

Particularly now we can get 5% risk free.
I think using your personal rate of inflation helps to eliminate some of the angst about real vs nominal interest rates.
If you don't buy a car, and you own your house, health care, taxes and food and energy inflation are the biggest problem that can't be controlled with lifestyle changes for retirees.
It helps a lot to live in a state (MA) where health care institutions and MDs have a hard time refusing to take Medicare. It is not illegal but there are so many retirees on the Cape no physician or hospital could survive refusing Medicare, except maybe plastic surgeons.
Of course we pay for it in other ways, ie taxes. 5% state income tax, and our real estate taxes have increased 10% YOY

Oil = $65.96 as quoted on MarketWatch currently. Precious metals continue to rip. Actually, some of the industrial miners have been hot lately (RIO for one). So if we’re heading into a big global slowdown that wouldn’t add up.
I’d say buckle your seat belts Wednesday morning. Should be fun.

Most people agree that the worst negative impact is to have to sell equities at the bottom because you need the money to live on. So you should not have money in the market that you will need to live on for the foreseeable future.
The question is always "how long is the foreseeable future". A very long time it turns out.
I looked at DJA and SP500 worse case losses over last 100 years and how long it took to get back to peak and stay there.
Pundits usually say five years of expenses is enough to keep you from selling at the bottom, but this ignores the two "double bottoms " ie in the 1930s and 1970s when stocks crashed again and the "lost decade" of the 2000s
It took 10 years for DJA to get past it's peak in 1973. It took 13 years for SP500 to get past 2000 peak.
Our good buddy John Hussman believes we could be in for a 60% decline from here.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230319/
So I try to ensure I have enough cash and bonds ( after accounting for Social Security and dividends etc ) to live on for at least ten years. I am retired without a pension, so what I got is all I am going to get!

Introductory question: if it were economically better to roll half the 401(k) into an IRA, wouldn't the benefit be even greater if you rolled the whole 401(k) into an IRA?
It's pretty clear that if your tax rates (or those of your beneficiaries) are lower in retirement, you're better off keeping the money in your 401(k). That's assuming you would use the same investment, the only difference being an extra 5 basis points in expenses.
Say you continue employment for another decade. (After retirement, you'd have RMDs in the 401(k) so there would be little reason to keep the money in that higher cost vehicle as opposed to a lower cost IRA).
So your investment cost for not moving the money would be about 10 x 5 basis point = 1/2%. (This ignores the minuscule compounding effect of 5 basis points.) That is petty in comparison with the reduction in taxes (if any) post-retirement.
OTOH, even if there is no reduction in taxes, by moving $500K to the IRA, you'd lose the (investment) use of the taxes owed on $20K/year. That is, you lose the tax deferral value of keeping the RMD amount tax-sheltered.
At 40% (your current tax rate), that's $8K in taxes paid early that you won't have to invest. And you lose the use of an additional $8K each year for however long you still work and could defer RMDs with your 401(k).
Let's say that you get 5% return on your S&P 500 investment. If you leave the $500K in the 401(k), then each year, for so long as you work, you'll have an additional $8K earning 5% ($400) that you wouldn't have had by using the IRA. That's $400 extra the first year, $800 extra the second year, etc. The cost to you for those earnings is 5 basis points on $500K/year or $250/year.
Of course you'll owe taxes on those extra earnings once you withdraw them from your retirement plan. So the gain isn't quite this large, but it's still clearly positive. Even if your taxes don't go down in retirement.
The choice seems obvious. Saving 5 basis points is not worth the loss of use of tax money, let alone potential lower tax rates if distributions are deferred until (actual) retirement.
It might be worth the additional flexibility, but that's a whole 'nother story.

An interesting thread, Twitter LINK.
European AT1/CoCo market has sold off and may have been compromised despite supportive statements from the ECB, EBA (European Banking Authority), SRB (Single Resolution Board) that what happened to (Swiss) Credit Suisse AT1/CoCo bonds CANNOT HAPPEN IN THE EU.

Surprisingly, there hasn’t been much discussion or analysis of ETNs (Exchange Traded Notes) in the aftermath of Credit Suisse disaster.
The ETNs are DEBT obligations of the ISSUER/sponsor. So, the health of the issuer is critical for the ETN holders. Yet, in all of the discussions of Credit Suisse issues, its ETN exposure wasn’t even mentioned. This even as in the UBS takeover/rescue of Credit Suisse, almost $17 billion of AT1/CoCo debt was extinguished by government order (a credit-event was declared) when that was ahead of the common stock (that finally had some residual value). But because it wasn’t an outright bankruptcy, the Credit Suisse ETNs should be OK for now as the debt obligation of Credit Suisse will become the debt obligations of UBS.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/161485/#Comment_161485
Another risk of ETNs is that their CREATION/REDEMPTION mechanisms may be disrupted by the issuer, or the ETN may be discontinued/liquidated in what may be very UNTIMELY for the ETN holders. Some ETNs are +/- 2x or even +/- 3x that further magnify risks (they escaped the recent ETF reforms to limit LEVERAGE).
Credit Suisse US ETNs include those for gold, silver, oil, MLP with AUM of under $500 million (tickers for Credit Suisse related stuff are avoided here as those may change). UBS also has ETNs related to equity and HY bonds with AUM under $200 million. It is unclear if UBS will maintain Credit Suisse ETNs.
No news is good news?
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/985/thread

I have a $1M 401-K with a company which invests it in a Vanguard 500 Index Fund (and charges me $9K annually (0.09%) to manage it). I'm still working (and plan to continue), I max out my contribution, my firm makes a modest match, hence no RMD yet.
I have a $750K Traditional IRA, also in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, which Vanguard charges 0.04% to manage. I must take a $30K annual RMD. I'm in the Federal 35% tax bracket.
I calculate that if I rollover half my 401-K into a traditional Vanguard 500 Index Fund IRA, my 401-K fee would be cut in half, but the RMD would increase to $50K. The additional $20K would be reduced to $12K by federal and state taxes.
I don't need the extra income. I already make use of QCD's for part of the current RMD.
The way I see it, a rollover would give me greater flexibility, but not much tax advantage.
Anyone have suggestion?

Thanks for the article. These days it is all about the rating just as Fox News. Talking about journalism malpractice.
Senators Warren is spot on and she and a number of Democrats voted against passing the 2018 deregulation on part of regulatory ruling of the Dobb-Frank Act. Had that been in place, this banking failure may have been prevent.
https://vox.com/business-and-finance/2023/3/13/23638655/silicon-valley-bank-trump-fdic-banking-law

Morningstar’s take on Buffet potential help with the regional banks.

Any Berkshire Action Would Like Be Capital Injection, Not Acquisition
With all of that in mind, we would expect any action on the part of Berkshire-Buffett in the near term, with regards to the U.S. regional banks, to involve the same kind of capital injection (and Buffett seal of approval). This would be in exchange for high-coupon preferred stock (which is more tax efficient for an insurer) and warrants to buy common stock if anything happens at all. As such, that lifeline will not come cheap for those interested in going that route.
What we do not expect to see is Berkshire stepping in and buying a bank. The firm has shown no interest in holding more than a 10%-15% stake in a U.S. bank primarily because ownership above that threshold comes with reporting requirements and oversight from the regulators that Berkshire is not all that interested in adhering to.

https://morningstar.com/articles/1144873/another-banking-crisis-another-call-to-buffett

Not much of an economy if 5.25% is enough to slaughter it.

"constantly beeping/buzzing/blinking with something to give viewers another dopamine hit"
That’s a reference to Cramer? Right?

All central banks (EU Australian Canadian Japan USA) open up piggies accts again... Just like that the last 16 months of inflation war cries ceasing... Large monies maybe free flowing soon again.... Get ready
Uncle power likely halt or raise very small perhaps last time to 0.25% on TUES.
Economy get slaughtered if rates remain above 5.25%for an extended period of time.

Bump, if one wants to watch markets again before Monday open.
After 5 pm, CST for FINVIZ , and for Global Indices, as their markets open around the globe.
Popular Global ETF's This list will populate changes at the U.S. market open.

@ dtconroe and @DavidF, please see @bee’s posting on WealthTrack.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58534/wealthtrack-weekly-investment-show/p8

Leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar discusses the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite several canaries in the coal mine examples of financial strain. Lazar shares her insights on why the economy is holding up better than expected and what we can expect moving forward, including the impact of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow down the recovery.

Nancy thinks we are entering a recession in the next 12 months, even with conflicting data on strong employment numbers, high wages, decent earning reporting and an inverted curve.
I too think a 25 bps rate hike is likely this week.